Venting.
Its a 5 horse field, where one filly is basically trailing the field throughout.
Mike Smith is ridiculously wide throughout.
Channing Hill cant find any room, anywhere. In what is basically a 4 horse field.
These are my two bets.
Allen Jerkens is a Hall of Fame trainer. Doesn\'t he watch the races? Doesn\'t he realize that Smith stopped trying to save ground 10 years ago?
Thought it funny that Trickle of Gold and Great Intentions connections were criticized in the ROTW for shipping to California during the winter. Wasn\'t it Annika Lass who shipped to California AND Florida during the winter without ever facing the starter?
The remote came THISCLOSE to going through the TV set today.
Annika was sent out months in advance to California, in the fall, to acclimate and run in the Sunshine Millions. Cerin got his hands on her, and presto-- he found problems that kept her from running. After she missed the Millions, we brought her back, gave her to Asmussen, and presto-- no more problems.
The other two fillies were shipped out right before the race, in the dead of winter.
Relax, Richie. Others with more at stake got the worst of that trip as well. And I don\'t blame the rider-- if one of the others had either been good or bad there would have been someplace to go.
Jerry:
I appreciate the calming words. One of my pet peeves is bad trips in short fields, yet I see them all the time.
I think Annika\'s trip also points out how bad the inside posts tend to be in the chute races at Aq.
The TG jock stats do seem to confirm my point about Mr Smith; after his awful spill at Saratoga, he has stayed as close to the ambulance as possible.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jerry:
>
> I appreciate the calming words. One of my pet
> peeves is bad trips in short fields, yet I see
> them all the time.
>
> I think Annika\'s trip also points out how bad
> the inside posts tend to be in the chute races at
> Aq.
>
> The TG jock stats do seem to confirm my point
> about Mr Smith; after his awful spill at Saratoga,
> he has stayed as close to the ambulance as
> possible.
But in Mike\'s defense, sometimes theres a wide bias just waiting to happen and when it does, Presto, Mikes there baby.
Channing Hill finding trouble is something you just have to factor and not risk in my opinion if the odds aren\'t good. Granted it was a good race to take a shot at Smuggler and you at least had the lynch pin.
What about that Lexington effort by Showing Up? Not bad all things considered. Looks like hes going Derby undefeated. In the end I watched. Realized Like Now broke inside of Fast Parade with a shortish run to the turn and wasn\'t confident Parade would ever get to relax. In Defeat Like Now impressed me too. That Gotham is looking better all the time.
Strange race 2 of the 5 fillie/mares stumbled coming out of the gate and the winner only bobbled. Did they start the race in a hole?
Annika Lass was going to be third trouble or not.If Hill had enough horse he had ample time to get up into that hole in between horses before it closed.Watch the head on.
She didn\'t race for nearly 7 months. When Asmussen got his hands on her at Palm Meadows her works were gappy leading up to her race at Aqueduct last month.She had to have needed that one-probably needed this one.Here is her work tab after not working since late October at Santa Anita:
02/06/2006 PMM 5f 102.40 B
02/13/2006 PMM 5f 103.00 B
Missed a week
02/27/2006 PMM 5F 100.80 H
03/06/2006 PMM 6f 112.80 H
Missed a week + shipping
03/22/2006 BEL 4f 49.05 B
Ran on 3/25
04/10/2006 BEL 5f 102.40 B
04/17/2006 BEL 4f 50.80 B
Chuck said
\"In Defeat Like Now impressed me too. That Gotham is looking better all the time.\"
Chuck,
Keyed Entry ain\'t winning the Derby. Get over it, move on.
Big,
Have watched this mare several times. I think she runs better outside or inside out. If managed and spotted right,she\'ll do well.A hard hitter.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck said
>
> \"In Defeat Like Now impressed me too. That Gotham
> is looking better all the time.\"
>
>
> Chuck,
>
> Keyed Entry ain\'t winning the Derby. Get over it,
> move on.
>
Keyed Entry has a big big chance.
Obviously that Wood Strip took its toll on the front end horses.
It was Brutal.
Keyed Entry is a great name for a Derby winner.
Miff
Probably likes that outside trip best,but she ran a good one at Delaware in the Sweet and Sassy going up the rail.What she needs more than anything is a hot pace.
She went thru a lot over the past seven-eight months-3 trainers-east-west-south-while going thru whatever the issues were that kept her from working regularly.Just think she needed two maybe three under her belt and regular training before she runs back to that Labor Day race.
Miff:
There is another horse coming out of the Gotham who will be running in the Derby.
Agree with Riva Chuckles that Like Now was game in the Lexington. Now we will see how badly his owner breeder wants a Derby seat.
Like Now might fit best as a lightly weighted Met Mile entrant, but some folks dreams get the best of them at this time of year.
Chuck
Keyed Entry has less chance to win the derby than Sinister Minister. He is by Honour and Glory, who is by Relaunch. If they do the right thing and scratch, stablemate Sunriver can win it! bbb
Big:
You are talking about this filly, who you are obviously very familiar with, as if she is slowly rounding into form. In her LAST race she got beat 3/4 of a length in a Grade II, coming very close to going by Smokey Glacken and the winner of today\'s race.
No matter what your connection to an animal is, owner, trainer, bettor, you do not like to see the jockey put the animal in a spot where it is necessary to yank on the animal\'s jaw severely, the way that C. Hill did today.
And since you viewed the head on, describe for the class the amount of ground Smith lost. At 9/1 (longest shot on board), I had Grecian sandwiched in between Foreverness (longest shot on the board) and Majestic Karakorum (winner of race 9, beating a heavy favorite) in a Pick 3. As TGJB points out, my bet would not have equalled the winner\'s purse (nowhere close) but after nearly 30 years of betting races, I have not done a good job of getting used to losing.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck
>
> Keyed Entry has less chance to win the derby than
> Sinister Minister. He is by Honour and Glory, who
> is by Relaunch. If they do the right thing and
> scratch, stablemate Sunriver can win it! bbb
Bellsbend, why are you \"down\" on all my horses?...lol
Keyed Entry is outta a Cryptoclearance mare however.
Caressing won the B.C.Juvy fillies.
Blues and Royals was everybody\'s pick to win the Derby until he foundered.
Discreet Hero won at 9 poles.
Keyed Entry has never missed the board. You don\'t deny a horse with talent a chance at immortality. And the big stud fees.
I\'m checking your contention that Sinister changed back to the wrong lead or never changed leads right now. Its time for the nitty gritty.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck
>
> Keyed Entry has less chance to win the derby than
> Sinister Minister. He is by Honour and Glory, who
> is by Relaunch. If they do the right thing and
> scratch, stablemate Sunriver can win it! bbb
Bellsbend,
I finally got a good look at the Blue Grass replay. Spinning out of the final turn Sinister Minister was on the correct lead. At the 1/8 pole something interesting happens. Have a look.
Its possible he was getting fatigued. He certainly had a right to. Its also possible theres another reason for falling back upon the wrong lead.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Big:
>
> You are talking about this filly, who you are
> obviously very familiar with, as if she is slowly
> rounding into form. In her LAST race she got beat
> 3/4 of a length in a Grade II, coming very close
> to going by Smokey Glacken and the winner of
> today\'s race.
I didn\'t think Smokey Glacken had her A game that day.She was done at the end of that race,and is evidently taking a vacation.Annika Lass would have gone past her in a few jumps,but was never getting by Magnolia Jackson in that one or todayIMO.I can only go by that Labor Day race as a gauge.She ran a 1 and was on cruise control.Her last race was a 3.75 and I suspect this one was similar.I just think she needed two under her belt and can now get back to her top in the next race.
>
> No matter what your connection to an animal is,
> owner, trainer, bettor, you do not like to see the
> jockey put the animal in a spot where it is
> necessary to yank on the animal\'s jaw severely,
> the way that C. Hill did today.
I could be wrong,but I don\'t think she was going to pass the 1-2 horses even with a clean trip.Trickle of Gold was finished,so even though Hill found trouble once he got Annika straightened out he had no trouble passing that one for 3rd.
Was the rail bad today? If it wasn\'t Hill should have just stayed inside.Trickle of Gold was under a ride on the turn to hold off Magnolia Jackson.If Hill is paying attention he has to see Jeremy Rose is out of horse and the rail is going to open up wider when Trickle of Gold starts to drift out.
If its my horse Hill isn\'t getting on her anymore.She broke bad and was bumped around in the first race.In this one he found trouble in a small field.Why screw around? Asmussen is supposed to be best 3rd race of the layoff.Put a top rider up in her next race and be done with it.
>
> And since you viewed the head on, describe for
> the class the amount of ground Smith lost. At 9/1
> (longest shot on board), I had Grecian sandwiched
> in between Foreverness (longest shot on the board)
> and Majestic Karakorum (winner of race 9, beating
> a heavy favorite) in a Pick 3. As TGJB points out,
> my bet would not have equalled the winner\'s purse
> (nowhere close) but after nearly 30 years of
> betting races, I have not done a good job of
> getting used to losing.
>
I only watched Annika and what was going on in front of her on the head on so I can\'t comment on Grecian,but it sounds like you have every right to be pissed given the potential payoff.
>
>
Richiebee,
I thought he was game too but you could have timed the race with a sun dial. The track was not all that slow. The other two turn race race was also very slow compared to the rest of the dirt races.Maybe the two turn races were more compromised by the surface.
Friend Chuck is stuck on Keyed Entry in the derby. Shocking to me how a guy with a decent opinion could like a rather one dimensional runner in this of all derbies.Just heard P.Val gets the mount on KE.He can make a billy goat dangerous.
Tough trip on Annika, I think she broke a little sharp and ran up into that bad spot by herself.I know wide Mikey, he\'s ok, maybe fell too many times.He was a fearless and ferocious rider when he first came to NY.
Mike
Miff:
Chuckles will embrace -- and abandon-- almost each one of the 20 Derby contenders in the next 2 weeks.
I guess Storm Clown feels that Pletcher has to win a Derby one of these years. I am pretty certain this is not the year.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richiebee,
>
> I thought he was game too but you could have timed
> the race with a sun dial. The track was not all
> that slow. The other two turn race race was also
> very slow compared to the rest of the dirt
> races.Maybe the two turn races were more
> compromised by the surface.
>
> Friend Chuck is stuck on Keyed Entry in the derby.
> Shocking to me how a guy with a decent opinion
> could like a rather one dimensional runner in this
> of all derbies.Just heard P.Val gets the mount on
> KE.He can make a billy goat dangerous.
>
> Tough trip on Annika, I think she broke a little
> sharp and ran up into that bad spot by herself.I
> know wide Mikey, he\'s ok, maybe fell too many
> times.He was a fearless and ferocious rider when
> he first came to NY.
>
> Mike
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/23/06 10:32AM by
> miff.
Miff, you have to admit with PVal up, Keyed Entry could be invincible.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck
>
> Keyed Entry has less chance to win the derby than
> Sinister Minister. He is by Honour and Glory, who
> is by Relaunch. If they do the right thing and
> scratch, stablemate Sunriver can win it! bbb
bbb,
Two of the fastest three year olds ever, Point Given and GZ, had the Relaunch blood. Brother Derek, Point Determined, and SNS, three of the top contenders this year, also have it back there. Agree that Honor and Glory is a bit on the speedy side as a sire, but I think KE has as much stamina in his pedigree as War Emblem or Smarty Jones. I think the track condition will play a major role in how well KE runs. I think he needs a glib surface to run his best, and he might get it. If I see the speed types tiring on the undercard however, I will probably have to pass.
Chuck,
I think P. Val is top three on the planet and maybe best with equal stock. Again, why didn\'t Baffy put him on Sin Min. Must be some west coast guy who knows the story.
Prado said the horse cannot get nine furlongs!
Agreed, and I do not see this horse as a Go for Gin type even if the track comes up wet.
Too many others who will be right up his you-know-what early.
bbb,
with prado up, the horse can\'t get 8.5f (too short) or 9f (too long). he might have won both the gotham and the wood if velazquez was up....
i can\'t blame anybody for tossing KE, but he is 39-1 at the mom. do you want to be short this guy at 39-1 if the track comes up lightning quick, and pval gets the perfect two/three wide stalking trip?
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I think P. Val is top three on the planet and
> maybe best with equal stock. Again, why didn\'t
> Baffy put him on Sin Min. Must be some west coast
> guy who knows the story.
Miff, to P Dub\'s consternation, I\'d have to say because \"You dance with who brung ya.\" Baffert had great success at Churchill with Espy. I\'d do the exact same thing. I believe a bad break in the Belmont cost War Emblem the triple crown.
I think Keyed Entery will give a good account of himself, but for the record
I believe that Sweetnorthernsaint is the real deal. I believe that he is NOT a front end speed crazy horse. In fact, I believe he is highly tractable. He does have a fluid, effortless stride which gives the illusion of pure speed, but that is the deception of his energy efficient way of moving. Barring a horrible break, I have no doubt that this horse will appear to be rating a kind 5 lengths off the burners. He won\'t be rating, he will be galloping near the lead. I don\'t think any horse can close with him. Come the top of the stretch, I think he\'ll be right there with the best part of his race still in front of him.
There are some very good horses in this race including Bob and John, Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek. But there is only one horse that could rain on SNS\'s parade per my reckoning. Keyed Entry has earned his berth, but he\'s not the horse to fear.
does anyone know the name and author of the daily comic strip which I beleive was in the old brooklyn eagle in the 1950s and 1960\'s.
Thanks
Chuck,
I did see SNSaint race twice. I do not think that he will be as effective in the stalk position. He reminds me of the pit bull type that is tough to get by when he\'s on the lead.I know he was wide in the Gotham but I was not impressed with that effort.He had an easy trip in the ILL Derby but was very explosive late. No doubt a real nice horse.
In this derby, barring gate trouble,Sin Min and Sharp Humor have that \"quickness\" which makes me believe that none of the others can beat them from the gate. Bro Derek,KE, SNS and L Ron are no slouchs early either.Very tough for me to visualize where this group will be on the first turn which may decide the race.
Lots of people are talking about stalkers in this derby but with 20 in there, it may be like hitting lotto to get that perfect trip.It will be interesting to see how some who have dominated, on or near the front end, react when they are in behind getting dirt kicked in their face.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I did see SNSaint race twice. I do not think that
> he will be as effective in the stalk position. He
> reminds me of the pit bull type that is tough to
> get by when he\'s on the lead.I know he was wide in
> the Gotham but I was not impressed with that
> effort.He had an easy trip in the ILL Derby but
> was very explosive late. No doubt a real nice
> horse.
>
> In this derby, barring gate trouble,Sin Min and
> Sharp Humor have that \"quickness\" which makes me
> believe that none of the others can beat them from
> the gate. Bro Derek,KE, SNS and L Ron are no
> slouchs early either.Very tough for me to
> visualize where this group will be on the first
> turn which may decide the race.
>
> Lots of people are talking about stalkers in this
> derby but with 20 in there, it may be like hitting
> lotto to get that perfect trip.It will be
> interesting to see how some who have dominated, on
> or near the front end, react when they are in
> behind getting dirt kicked in their face.
Opinions are what make this game interesting.
Theres been a lot of talk about the slow pace of the Illinois Derby. Here\'s my take on it. The two turn DRF variant was 27, and SNS ran a three year best of 96. To me these are much more revealing numbers than Beyers.
Cause to Believe was use to running on 08 variants in Northern California. Even when doing so he\'d carve out 47 halfs raceday. In the Illinois Derby he ran a 48 and change on that 27 variant. So you tell me, Was Hollendorfer reasonable when he stated post race the slow pace prevented his horse from finishing strongly? If something did impact Cause to Believe and prevent him from his late move, what was it?
SNS broke from the 10 hole in both the Gotham and Illinois Derby. In the latter, he broke so fluidly he was in the lead a jump outta the gate. He relaxed, let Mister Triester move to the lead inside of him and ran an in hand race. FYI, did you see who Mister Triester entertained on the lead in his first race after breaking maiden? Its not like Mister Triester is a slow animal. Unless you believe Hollendorfers laments.
The Gotham deserves some review, but that can wait for another day.
CtC
The Clown has been pretty good in the past on this type of pick. Difference now is its two WEEKS before the race not two MINUTES.
I actually agree with him and do not see being five lengths of the pace as being in the stalking position. If Sinister Minister runs off, he may find himself ten off.
Which wouldn\'t be such a bad thing either.
Do agree that Trips in the Derby can sometimes resemble NASCAR or even worse a Chevy Chase family vacation movie.
Chuck,
I do not envisage any \"relaxing\" for the up close runners in this derby. Too much early gas, imo.We\'ll see.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I do not envisage any \"relaxing\" for the up close
> runners in this derby. Too much early gas,
> imo.We\'ll see.
>
> Mike
Don\'t you have to judge their tractability by how they\'ve paced themselves in the past?
Lets look at that angle.
Sinister Minister - He\'s obviously not going to be happy unless hes on the lead. He\'s not been effect from off the pace
Brother Derek - The last time he was not on the lead at the second call he missed the board.
Lawyer Ron - Has his Rebel as evidence being behind won\'t discourage him. That counts highly in his favor.
Barbaro - Does have two runs from just off the leader. The track was hot and he did prevail.
Sharp Humor - has contested every fraction he\'s ever run. If not on the lead he has not faired well.
Keyed Entry - Clearly a very quick horse. Undoubtedly will revert to the just off pace style of the Gotham.
Like Now - Apparently a pass, but clearly will not allow another horse to head him.
Mister Triester - Has won from off pace, but is clearly a pace horse without the brillance of his sire\'s other runner.
To my eye, Sinister Minister takes the lead. Sharp Humor, Mister Triester and Brother Derek battle for the pressing position. Lawyer Ron, Barbaro, Keyed Entry and SNS position for the stalking spots.
Private Vow, Point Determined, A.P. Warrior, Showing Up and Bob and John run from further back and Jazil, Steppenwolfer and Storm Treasure make their late runs.
Theres a crush in the first turn and a third of the field is eliminated. Theres nowhere to run on the second turn and a few others lose their chance. The distance eats at those stamina challenged.
There can be only one
Chuck,
Lawyer Ron did not look that comfortable to me early in the Rebel and Mc Kee is sitting on a bounce(dont\' trust him that much in a 20 horse field)
KE could not run down Like Now with a perfect trip in the Gotham and now needs to find 3/16ths more.
Did not know Mister Triester is running, overall your scenario sounds reasonable to me.Fig wise there are not many that do not stand a punchers chance.
Mike
Betfair has this horse some 80-1 and since With a City just went down he may get in. bbb
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Betfair has this horse some 80-1 and since With a
> City just went down he may get in. bbb
Maker says quote:
\"The vets say we may never know what happened to With a City.\"
I can understand Vets may have blood count readings and temperature readings and the like and that they may have come back inconclusive. But theres still bloodwork in regard to biologicial toxins and the like isn\'t there? Viral infections, etc. How can Vets state at this early juncture \"We may never know.\" Whose vets are these anyway?
Theres investors that just paid 50K a share for an interest in With a City. Don\'t you think tehy are owed an inquiry into why their investment suddenly died without a lead? I think I would be owed a full inquiry if I\'d clanked up that kind of money for an interest. These investors need to hire their own vets if I don\'t miss my guess.
Sudden form turnaround. Sudden loss of form and boom dead with vets scratching their heads. \"Dayum, how\'d that happen...we may never know.\"
Theres good crooks and stupid crooks.
Prediction, the investors receive a return on their investment no questions asked. The autopsy is private and the results are \"We don\'t know why he croaked\".
Chucklesmatic:
The cynical side of me would like to know if K. Ramsey has an ownership interest in any of the Derby \"bubble\" horses.
More seriously, these things are not always simple to solve. Swale was much more valuable than With a City, and to my knowledge the cause of his death has never been determined.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> More seriously, these things are not always simple
> to solve. Swale was much more valuable than With a
> City, and to my knowledge the cause of his death
> has never been determined.
The day before the Derby that Swale won was run, there was a story on the back page of the NY Post, a rumor that Swale would be scratched from the Derby due to some sort of \"reaction to medication\" he was given.
Michael D,
Why do you say this...JV Wins? just curious?
NC Tony
It will certianly be interesting to see what details surrounding this are made public . I\'m guessing we\'ll have more of this type of thing especially with the new testing rules . Either way , testing or not , attempts to go around the rules have to be expected and this is possibly an example of that . One thing for sure though , With a City is one that got away ...