Just looked at the Rags Pre-Derby/sheets
From looking at the FIG they gave Sinister Minister, he might have the fastest Fig ever on Thorograph. We shall see.
there is no track in the country that has horses winning of by a huge margain of victory like kee. that aught to be enough evidence that those races are seldom as good as they \"appear\".
WELL WHAT WAS THE FIG?
Neg 1 3/4
johndrj Wrote:
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> there is no track in the country that has horses
> winning of by a huge margain of victory like kee.
> that aught to be enough evidence that those races
> are seldom as good as they \"appear\".\'
Theres another good betting angle. As soon as it becomes clear to the masses that there is a statistical trend which has tended to indicated the Derby winner or winner of any race and the public latches onto that trend, its time to buck it. The rewards of bucking a trend can\'t be overstated. I call it Chaos Theory, but of course you have to have the right horse.
Fusaichi Chuckasus:
To restate your chaos theory, the most recent trend in the Derby has been the lack of any identifiable trend.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Fusaichi Chuckasus:
>
> To restate your chaos theory, the most recent
> trend in the Derby has been the lack of any
> identifiable trend.
Raise a Ritchie, I would tend to agree with the lack of \"identifiable trend\" statement other than it generally takes a good horse. Maybe you can except Giacomo from that trend however.
Chaos theory may or my not have application to a Keeneland race winner, just depending upon how good a horse you think the Keeneland race winner is. I certainly won\'t make a blanket statement that no winner at Keeneland can be taken seriously.
I\'m going to continue to review the Blue Grass and if I note anything odd, I\'ll comment upon it. For the time being it appears it was a marvelous race, far exceeding anything done on the West Coast. Those that cashed the Blue Grass would be lying if they didn\'t admit part of the cash involved disdain for the Blue Grass favorites. Once past the likes of First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat however, the West Coasters are dead in the sights. They\'ve been vastly overrated but for one horse and now that horse is conditionally disadvantaged even before the post positions are drawn.
CtC
Excluding Sinister\'s single race, Sweetnorthernsaint is the fastest horse in the race. His last was very fast and a bounce is possible, but his other FIG\'s lay over this field. The thing is what style will he use in the race? My guess is he will be off the pace in a stalking mid pack style because of the other speed in the race.
CTC:
I am already committed to at least a token wager on SM based on the presence of Stick to Beauty in his bloodline. He was working brilliantly leading up to the BG; will be interested to see if Baffert slows him down in the AM, giving him the proverbial longer, slower, stamina building works, and wonder how SM will react to this if that is the case.
Still would love to see PVal on this beast.
Slow horses won the DERBY last year. TWo horses in this race are much faster then the rest, kind of like last year. I can\'t imagine another collapse. But we still have to handicap the race, and there are a couple in here with very nice lines the might go forward or might not. My opinion is no line will tell you if one is or isn\'t, it\'s a educated guess at best. I play what horses have run on average,not guessing one is going forward or back.
Richiebee,
Father Hogan at Fordham U, who taught Ecomomics and was an advisor to Kennedy\'s admin, used to often speak of the \"Chaos Theory\" and the lack of identifiable trends can be a leading indicator in and of itself.
The best \"value\" races to bet are Chaos races. I think I learned that one at Yonkers raceway University after classes up the Mosholu Parkway.
NC Tony
Chuckles,
Didn\'t the west coast horses invade Aqueduct and feast on the east Wood day?
So if lets say for argument sake SM is the west coast\'s (or Baffert\'s) third string, what does it say for the Florida/NY east coast horses in general? Stong Contender BG CAt and 1st Sam were all considered top notch going into the Bluegrass.
At this point I\', leaning to the west coast horses over the east coast, and the professional Lawyer Ron (who may be a little slow). Don\'t know what to make of Sweetnorthernsaint yet. My estemed fellow poster Michael D is high on this one, so I have to take note. I thought the Hawthorne race was won over a very very weak feild so I don\'t know what you can take from that.
NC Tony
NCT:
The only thing you should have learned at Yonkers is that in terms of credibility Harness Racing is one step ahead of the World Wrestling Federation and should be avoided at all costs. The last time I was at Yonkers was for the simo of the (95?) BC which included the tragic Go for Wand race and Dayjur snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with his flying leap.
Still going to make regular trips to Lexington after Keeneland goes to Polyestertrack?
I already know what will happen the first time I play this \"Grand Slam\" nonsense: The first 3 animals, who I need only to hit the board, will all win, and my \"clean up\" horse will run off the board.
Right now I am suffering with gout in my left foot and sciatica in my right leg; if I was Catholic I would attribute this to God punishing me for enjoying life so much. Won\'t be able to golf, so will make the best of a tough situation, download some gratis TGs and head for Park Ozone
Richie..
The gout must be affecting your memory... Wand/Dayjur/Unbridled was \'90!! That was a day that is best forgotten.. It also included the heart attack/collapse of Mark Reid\'s Mr. Nickerson who had become a real favorite of mine.
I think I\'ve posted the link to this before, but here\'s my somewhat maudlin recollection of BC \'90, an ode to Nick and Wand...
MINOR PHILLY PARK STAKE EVOKES MEMORIES
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/message/162
Hope you\'re feeling better after the trip to \'Little Kingston\' (AQU)..
Steve
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NCT:
>
> The only thing you should have learned at
> Yonkers is that in terms of credibility Harness
> Racing is one step ahead of the World Wrestling
> Federation and should be avoided at all costs. The
> last time I was at Yonkers was for the simo of the
> (95?) BC which included the tragic Go for Wand
> race and Dayjur snatching defeat from the jaws of
> victory with his flying leap.
Steve:
Thank you for the correction. All of these things seem like they happened yesterday. I remember waking up early one June or July morning in 90 and watching Dayjur run in an English sprint race which was simo\'d to Monmouth.
It was a 5f race on the flat, and they kept switching camera angles. It seemed like each time they changed angles, Dayjur increased his lead.
I remember the roughly run sprint in 90 led to the order in which the BC races were run being changed; the Sprint had traditionally been the opener. For some reason they though it would be safer if it was run later in the day; I never understood their reasoning.
Kev posted that the TG fig was neg 1 3/4. If so, for the first time I can remember,TG rates Sin Mins performance SLOWER than the Rags fig by app 5+ lenghts and Beyer by app 6 lenghts, adjusted, scale to scale(no longer reliable)
Richiebee,
I guarantee you will be pain free by the end of the second race IF you hit the double. Good luck on the Belt which has been murder coming home, sun glare.
Miff-- that\'s not what we gave SM, Kev must have been talking about the Rag figure. Also, he would have no way to get the figure from us, and if he somehow got it and posted it he would be banned for life. No joke.
JB,
Honest, I did not believe it,but thought Kev was an employee of TG.I guess it\'s a matter of how fast you really want to make it. Andy trumped Mark Hopkins and others at Beyer Speed Figs who thought 118-120 was the right call,I heard.
Mike
I got it from the Rag\'s site Len wrote this
\"The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that he\'s a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest in the Derby.\"
kev Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I got it from the Rag\'s site Len wrote this
>
> \"The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1
> 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that
> he\'s a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest
> in the Derby.\"
>
Sinister Ministers \"history\"? I wonder what history the inimitable Len is referring to? The horse has only run five times:
His first race, he broke well but then ran wide with the pack before fading.
His second race they dropped him for a tag and from an outside post and after a pace battle he ran as well as the winner in his first start factoring the track variant.
His third race and first start for Baffert he failed to break cleanly for the first time and ran wide into a buzz saw named Too Much Bling. Was it bounce that caused the bad break? Unfitness? Fatigue? Maybe, but I don\'t think so.
Fourth race was the rail-banging incident vs. Cause to Believe. There was a hefty jump in the level of competition there and he came close to pulling it off. I guess Len anticipated a bounce in the Bluegrass because he rated Sinister Minister 6th, below Bluegrass Cat, Strong Contender and First Samurai. I guess Len was all over the Sinister Minister bounce play then as he is now.
Some folks keyed Sinister Minister to win Len. When you pick a winner, it's a heckuva lot easier to factor the exotics.
Nevertheless, nice call on the S.M. Derby bounce. You\'ve staked out a position that the 7th betting choice can\'t win.
Attaboy
Kasept Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> > Richie..
>
> The gout must be affecting your memory...
> Wand/Dayjur/Unbridled was \'90!! That was a day
> that is best forgotten.. It also included the
> heart attack/collapse of Mark Reid\'s Mr. Nickerson
> who had become a real favorite of mine.
>
> I think I\'ve posted the link to this before, but
> here\'s my somewhat maudlin recollection of BC \'90,
> an ode to Nick and Wand...
>
>
> MINOR PHILLY PARK STAKE EVOKES MEMORIES
>
>
>
> Hope you\'re feeling better after the trip to
> \'Little Kingston\' (AQU)..
>
> Steve
>
>
>
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > NCT:
> >
> > The only thing you should have learned
> at
> > Yonkers is that in terms of credibility
> Harness
> > Racing is one step ahead of the World
> Wrestling
> > Federation and should be avoided at all
> costs. The
> > last time I was at Yonkers was for the simo
> of the
> > (95?) BC which included the tragic Go for
> Wand
> > race and Dayjur snatching defeat from the
> jaws of
> > victory with his flying leap.
>
>
>
Never read that before Kasept. Well written and very poignant.
I think I had Mr. Nickerson in my bet too, but the horse that would have won that sprint most times was Glitterman. He was a little more lucky than Mr. Nickerson, but not much more. He retired injured out of that race and Glitterman wasn\'t even the best sprinter in the nation around that time. It was a Ziadie trainee named Hooting Star. Though that one may have been more suited to 7 panels.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Didn\'t the west coast horses invade Aqueduct and
> feast on the east Wood day?
>
> So if lets say for argument sake SM is the west
> coast\'s (or Baffert\'s) third string, what does it
> say for the Florida/NY east coast horses in
> general? Stong Contender BG CAt and 1st Sam were
> all considered top notch going into the
> Bluegrass.
>
> At this point I\', leaning to the west coast horses
> over the east coast, and the professional Lawyer
> Ron (who may be a little slow). Don\'t know what to
> make of Sweetnorthernsaint yet. My estemed fellow
> poster Michael D is high on this one, so I have to
> take note. I thought the Hawthorne race was won
> over a very very weak feild so I don\'t know what
> you can take from that.
>
> NC Tony
Tony, to my knowledge the only West Coast invaders Wood Day were Bob and John and Too Much Bling. Shipping is expensive and obviously you have to think you have a good reason to ship. Clearly Baffert made the right calls with Sinister Minister and Bob and John, but Too Much Bling had already been out east. He\'s not ducked anyone. Its been more a matter of him coming to hand in my opinion. He lost to First Samurai once. Now I think he\'d crush him.
As far Sinister being Baffert\'s third string, I\'m not sure of that. With hindsight you have to figure he would have run a dilly in the Santa Anita Derby, but by shipping two out of town Baffert took a 2nd in the S.A. Derby and two firsts and got 3 horses into the Derby. Baffert also said the following:
Rafael Bejarano would ride Point Determined, Bafffert said, with Espinoza on Sinister Minister and Garrett Gomez aboard Bob and John, although that wasn\'t engraved in stone as of Wednesday morning. \"It depends on what happens between now and then,\" Baffert said. \"I\'m going to go with my gut.\"
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33107
Which leads me to believe that Baffert is jockeying the jockeys to suit his horses and that the commitments may be far less bilateral than many think. The \"Gut\" comment interests me. Obviously Espinoza knows his way around the Churchill oval and will have the proper timing for the race. Additionally, he was able to conserve a previous horses speed somewhat and that is clearly something Baffert is factoring.
As far as the West Coast horses being dominant, I\'m less sure of that. Personally I\'m predicting a mega flop for the wise guy horse A.P. Warrior and I\'ve downgraded Brother Derek substantially. I\'m getting very bad vibes about him, even though I think hes a good horse in the right circumstances.
Baffert goes with his gut, I don\'t ignore the vibes.
CTC..
Thx.. Appreciate the compliment and you taking the time to read it.
Forgot about Glitterman... That was a really contentious group of sprinters in \'90..
Ctc,
Good post. Speaking of good vibes.
I had very Good Vibes today at Kee.
R7 and R9 Cha Ching a ling aling,
The Barclay Tagg Horse was very professional and very good today. he\'s one to watch for sure in the derby. Go Now showed a lot of heart much to my consternation (I had the 5 at 54-1 in 2nd,3rd,4th slots). The payouts with him second would have been significantly better.
Chuckles, I am having the same vibes as you about Sin Min. Did you see the Steve Klein Article (Sunday DRF) speaking of Sin Min Subject and KEE Detractors. He said it better than I could.
NC Tony
Chuck and Tony you are smoking your shorts. Seems to me Showing Up was all out to get to a multiple maiden claimer in the SLOWEST running of the Lexington since its inception. This colt has higher leg action than a can-can dancer and if Barclay foolishly runs him in Louisville he will be coupled with Barbaro anyway.
As far as Sinister he came out of his race like he had been in a car wreck. He can\'t get ten poles riding in a van. bbb
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck and Tony you are smoking your shorts. Seems
> to me Showing Up was all out to get to a multiple
> maiden claimer in the SLOWEST running of the
> Lexington since its inception. This colt has
> higher leg action than a can-can dancer and if
> Barclay foolishly runs him in Louisville he will
> be coupled with Barbaro anyway.
>
> As far as Sinister he came out of his race like he
> had been in a car wreck. He can\'t get ten poles
> riding in a van. bbb
Bellsbend, I did not pick up a overly high leg action. But I did see a leg casting out on one of the horses in the stretch. I\'m not sure which yet. The time doesn\'t bother me, but its a card that will be reviewed carefully. I liked his pace style for this Derby.
Regardless of where they were three months ago, these horses are not claimers now. Its not the horses fault that their trainers couldn\'t see the potential in them and risked them foolishly.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc,
>
> Good post. Speaking of good vibes.
>
> I had very Good Vibes today at Kee.
>
> R7 and R9 Cha Ching a ling aling,
>
> The Barclay Tagg Horse was very professional and
> very good today. he\'s one to watch for sure in the
> derby. Go Now showed a lot of heart much to my
> consternation (I had the 5 at 54-1 in 2nd,3rd,4th
> slots). The payouts with him second would have
> been significantly better.
>
> Chuckles, I am having the same vibes as you about
> Sin Min. Did you see the Steve Klein Article
> (Sunday DRF) speaking of Sin Min Subject and KEE
> Detractors. He said it better than I could.
>
> NC Tony
>
I\'ve been engaged in a colloquy with Klein over some of the prospects. Most recently Sinister Minister. I did not see that article. He\'s a great writer and not afraid to radically alter his views and I respect his opinion. My only reservation is that working for that concern that he does I think there's subtle influence to happy talk up the Kentucky Bluebloods on the trail that will later be aimed for breeding.
I\'ll try and locate that article now
p.s. congrates on those races. I\'m not much of a turf betting man and I avoid turf sprints with a passion.
Bear Character was 39-1 and Go Now is a Zito horse. But I know what youre saying. Congrats on that. You were all over that lexington.
BBB -
I don\'t think Showing Up and Barbaro (or Private Vow and Storm Treasure for that matter) will be coupled. The following is from the Kentucky horse racing rules (courtesy of Google):
\"In thoroughbred stakes races with added money of $100,000 or more, permission may be granted by the stewards to uncouple mutuel entries of horses sharing common ties through training or ownership or both.\"
Or maybe Showing Up isn\'t going to Show Up.
Maybe hes an insurance policy against raceday illness or injury to Barbaro. Maybe he\'s being used to bump someone off the bubble, a Derby day scratch, as a savvy owner decreases the field size.
I guess with 24 hour advance wagering you have to live with it.
Gamesmanship
Hey Bit,
I tried to get Doug Bredar on the phone but he is out for a few days with a family emergency. I was directed to another person and through his secretary, he confidently reported that their are no couplings, and earnings are the ultimate criteria for who gets in.
Seems crazy to me. Especially one owner excluding another. Sorry for the bad info. bbb
Speaking of Barbaro, can a horse be more under the radar?.Is he alive and in training besides two minute licks? Mike Matz do you read this board? RSVP.