Afleet Alex 3rd
Bellamy Road x
Bandini x
Greeley\'s Galaxy x
Cliff\'s Edge x
Castledale x
Ten Most Wanted x
Indian Express x
Point Given x
Brancusi x
Perfect Drift 3rd
Jamaican Rum x
Express Tour x
Millenium Wind x
Songandaprayer x
Balto Star x
Keats x
I looked over SHEETS of Past KD\'s and noticed that horses that ran BIG efforts before the race, ran terrible in the DERBY regardless of excuss. The scary thing is some of the horses never even made it back to the races. I\'m sure i could have gone back 3 more years and found more, but I think it\'s pretty clear that BIG JUMP before the BIG ONE is DOOM!
Me and 1,000\'s of others who are stupid enough to think we can reasonably predict the Derby each year and pour the money into the race, wish there was a CONSISTENT reliable Derby handicapping method. There simply isn\'t.
These are horses who defy your logic and aren\'t on your list:
Smarty Jones
War Emblem
Charismatic
Lion Heart (2nd)
Empire Maker (2nd)
Menifee (2nd)
The above horses I mention are just case studies from the last 7 or so years that won or ran huge in their last prep. But I hear what you\'re saying.
TGJB\'s 2 and 3 year old colt methodology coming into the Derby is a reliable, sound handicapping system but like most others is only good for approx. 20% success...
I have had solid opinions on the last 10 derbies going in using a variety of different variables and handicapping tools. Most turned out to be dead wrong.
The ones I was right about turned out to be:
Real Quiet (2nd in his last prep)
Monarchos (2nd in his last prep)
However - based on this year\'s crop of animals and having seen all of the Derby preps this season and closely watching them on video, I can say the most impressive looking horses and the fastest figurewise are:
Brother Derek
Sweetnorthernsaint
I am very confident one or both will be in the Derby Super...
Best of luck! All of this babbling is what makes the Derby the greatest race in America and the world for my money
Empire Maker, Menifee and War Emlem paired going into the race, they were not huge one number figs.I simply was not using my own logic, I looked over several sheets and it appeared to me that big moves do not bold well for horses going in.
The question of big jumps was one of the things I discussed in last year\'s seminar (can be heard for free here now), and we\'ll most certainly be discussing it again.
I call it the pre derby jump up.
War Emblem jump up - reason - trainer switch Baffert
All the horses that were mentioned going against that theory did they not show somewhat consistent line that it was not 6 6 6 1?
If you throw out jump up\'s it will throw out alot of underlays.
HORSES WHO JUMP UP THE RACE BEFORE THEN GO 1 1/4 MILE BOUNCE! LOOK AT THE HISTORY!
Horses do not show a line 8 7 7 1 then pair IT DOES NOT HAPPEN
War Emblem ran a huge race, then was purchased by Baffert. He paired his FIG after he was sold, giving him a pair of 1\'s going into the derby. A pair does not count as something like, 7 7 1.
Tony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Horses do not show a line 8 7 7 1 then pair IT
> DOES NOT HAPPEN
>
Actually, it does happen. Take a look at War Emblems 2002 sheet in the Archives. he ran almost that exact line and then paired his Top in his next race. That race wasn\'t the Kentucky Derby, but is that dispositive? Thereafter, Baffert acquired him and he improved 1.5 points on that top. Speed horse, trainer change to Baffert. Any similarities?
Lets look closer at some of those horses from last year that were played to bounce off career tops in their race prior to the Derby.
Bellamy Road...Did he bounce or was he unsuited for a pace battle at 10 poles? He hasn\'t been running, but does that mean on Derby day fatigue kept him from pairing his Wood effort?
Bandini.......Injured in the Derby (or leading up to it) but has he come back to run well, though not up to his Blue Grass. Word is that he\'s pointing to the Met Mile. Was he really a 10 mark horse?
Afleet Alex...beaten a length, would he have regressed if he\'d caught a better part of the track or not been sick for the Rebel. In other words was Bounce the dispositive factor?
Greeley\'s Galaxy ...obviously has never come back to his huge Illinois Derby number. Of the four, I make him the Bounce never come back poster boy.
Personally, I don\'t think you can get overly fixated upon the bounce theory even in the Derby. I may play one small ticket with bounce projected, but I\'m going to bet the best horses conditionally advantaged and barring the unforeseen, my guess is they run their race.
I\'m assumming the bounce candidates are:
Sinister Minister
Bob and John
Sweetnorthernsaint
We\'ll see
CtC,
I used to think you were off the wall sometimes, but i\'m tending to agree with you lately. \'
Channing Hill still NG?
Nc Tony
A little seltzer down your pants.....
War E line
2yo line 14.2 -20.1 8.1
3yo line 8.3 10.0 1.0 1.0 Derby he ran a neg -0.2
Based on EMPIRE MAKER\'s line as well as WAR EMBLEM, huge jumps followed by a pair-up race may bode well going into Kentucky.
Huge jumps going in??...well, you have to play the percentages and assume bounce, especially since the MOTOS will be all over the horse. Remember Baffert\'s INDIAN EXPRESS. Ran a huge Santa Anita Derby on the engine at 35-1 getting beat a head. Goes off 10-1 in FUNNY CIDE\'s Derby and the search party is still out there.
If you look at the past Derby horses from TG\'s archives, the one thing that sticks out is how frequently the 3yos run their tops in their 4th race. This includes Illinois Derby winners TEN MOST WANTED and GREELY\'s GALAXY who peaked in Illinois in their 4th start of the year and ran horribly in Kentucky. You can throw BUDDY GIL into that mix also.
Also, please take notice of the horses that do not race in either March or April.
Looks like if you are going to miss a full month, better to do it in January or February. Right, Michael Matz??
Good Luck,
Joe B.