SINISTER MINISTER 116
LAWYER RON 98
Millenium Wind - again.
twoshoes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Millenium Wind - again.
Millenium Wind won by about 6 lengths and ran a figure right there with Point Given and Monarchos.
Sinister Minister won by 12 and devastated 3 horses pointing for the Derby. He beat up Strong Contender and took his lunch money. He made Bluegrass Cat wonder what hit him and he retired First Samurai. He\'s now the Bluegrass Bully.
To my eye he will be one of the fastest horses at a better price than the favorites. Do you play a horse like that to bounce?
He had a pair of 3\'s going in, I\'m sure he ran the fastest 3 year old fig this year. In my opinion it\'s an isolated race. I think he will BOUNCE.
My opinion? I take any big figure earned on that track with a grain of salt. If it was a big new top, and I\'m almost sure it was (116 Beyer?) he\'ll be shorter than he should be come Derby day. Again, my opinion. Your free to disagree.
Did not Baffert win the Derby with another speed horse that Freaked on a speed track? War Emblem in the Illinois Derby on a two bit track. Same big number from nowhere at a big price. I would tread lightly with this one. Could be another War Emblem on the tote board!
Sometimes they explode off the 0X0 specially when their not to heavily raced and haven\'t reacted negatively to previous efforts . Getting a favorable pace + trip senario along with faster horse\'s going into that race flattening out didn\'t hurt SM\'s chances either . I wouldn\'t look to get a price or another similar trip on Sinister in the Derby , though it\'s not possible he could run another number in that range , I\'m guessing he ran a 4 or 5 + pt top on Thoro-Graph ...
There\'s general agreement that Kee and CD are two very different tracks. Until we see how they work at CD, we\'re all just batting our gums. Having said that, I\'ll bat my gums a little.
Doesn\'t Sinister Minister\'s race remind you of Bellamy\'s Road\'s Wood? In both cases my reaction is/was, like to see him do it again.
I\'ll be surprised if Lawyer Ron is in the money on May 6. He beat up on the same group (give or take an allowance horse or two) in all three races. He doesn\'t look like he wants to run a mile & a quarter any more than I do.
This is starting to shape up as a pretty good group. After last year we deserve it.
As of now I\'d take Sweetnorthernsaint but the race is still almost three weeks away.
That\'s enough opinions on a Monday morning from someone who liked Strong Contender
Could be, however, I kind of liken him to BANDINIs -3 last year at Keeneland. I wouldn\'t play any horse with that big of a jump up off a race at Keeneland in the Derby. NO way, NO how.
It remined me a lttle of the \'02 Belmont when Sarava popped the field - except in the Bluegrass , Sinister was Alot easier to come up with and well respected at 8-1 ... Though I doubt whether SM will be a must use in the Derby .
I\'m trying to ( w/ a 101 fever don\'t help ) make a Morning Line for Derby Probable\'s and right now I\'m clueless .
Jerry has been quiet about the race so far this year , so I\'ll be willing to bet that he\'s got a couple nice perspective plays he\'s looking at right now , I might be covered for win with future\'s so I\'m hoping key on Jerry\'s exacta + trifecta + superfecta play\'s this year .
which horse would you rather own ? there is no way these 2 horses are ~10 lengths apart, just no way.
johndrj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> which horse would you rather own ? there is no
> way these 2 horses are ~10 lengths apart, just no
> way.
>
Are you sure?
God, I wish Jerry would weigh in on some of these races with the meaty bones.
The pattern was \" potentially \" explosive and that\'s where the big Blue Grass number ( assuming Jerry gave one ) came from . The big Question was could he do it given the races conditions ...
yes,
i am sure, no way.
john
Marcus,
A RAG buddy just mentioned that Sinister Minister ran neg -1 3/4.That makes it in the neg -5 range for TG.
I am interested to know why you found Sinister Min to be sitting on a world class top, going in.What was the pattern statistical prob. on TG, I did not see it.
Mike
It was a \"potentially \" explosive 0XO pattern and when they\'re not to heavily raced and appear healthy , they can jump up at that point - but it\'s not a high percentage play . I\'ve had my best experiences with the 0XO play w/ fillies late season 2 yo\'s & early season 3 yo\'s and occasionally w/ colts - one needed to get a price though - I was hoping for 20-1 . Also , and equally important , it was entirely possible that the favorite\'s were set for off races and Sinister could have things his way when it came to pace and getting a trip . You remember Wild Syn several years back , a similar angle . One thing Jerry warned me about w/ these types ( and it was good advice ) is the ability of the horse to do it at the Stake\'s level against tougher competition ...
WOW!!! Didn\'t know that GHOSTZAPPER was back. Now if he does it in the Derby the way Beyer thinks he can, we have the new GZ only 1 year removed.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
You can\'t possibly compare Sinister Minister to Wild Syn. Wild Syn went about :50 and 1:14 over a rail biased track loose on the lead. He backed the field up and Thunder Gulch ran a huge race to make up any ground (wide at that). There was nothing slow about the pace last Saturday. He was loose because nobody could keep up with him.
Excellent point.
That being said with regards to your THUNDER GULCH reference, does anyone know if Hawthorne had a pronounced speed bias on April 8th when they ran the Illinois Derby??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I rated it as neutral.
I don\'t cotton to \"speed biases\" and I certainly don\'t want to open that can of worms again. But I did check all the times on the date in question and that\'s one of the things that makes me like Sweetnorthernsaint.
It would appear that they didn\'t soup the track up that day. Can the same be said for SA on the same day?
JJP - Exactly , They couldn\'t catch Sinister - The reference to Wild Syn was in terms of a good \"potentially \" explosive 0 X 0 Pattern as it related to a horse\'s form cycle . WS may have run the number differently but still ran it - he did what he had to do ...