Race 8: two quality three year old milers here: Stephentown and Sky Terrace. from post one with 113 lbs, Day might have the edge.
Race 9: Dance looks fastest, but no guarantee, anything could happen in the final sixteenth. With Ability still needs to prove she can win without a clear lead. Spain has only one win in her last 12 starts, but it\'s Lucas in Ky
Race 10: see NTRA pk3
Race 11: 1,3,5,9 all look the same
The bet:
Two units: Stephen, Sky / Dance, WA, Spain / Cong, Ten, Conn, SC, Unsh / 1,3,5,9
Two units: Stephen, Sky / Dance, WA, Spain / Conn, SC / 1,3,5,9,
Five units: Stephen, Sky / WA / Conn, SC / 1,3,5,9
Any other opinions out there ???
Agree that the 8th looks like a 2 horse race, with a slight edge to Stephen, although I wouldn\'t dismiss Shah, who will probably be overbet because of the 2nd to Sarava, entirely. I\'m looking for 2-1 or higher on Stephen & close to 3-1 on Shah.
I see Dance as a single & would make a prime bet if she\'s over 2-1.
I\'m leaning strongly toward St. Cry at 3-1 or higher, but could be enticed by Tenpins or Connected if the price is right.
Peace River looks like a single & makes sense at 2-1, although if she gets a good trip Traci has about a 5-1 chance. The race might be very playable if you agree that Mott/Day & Stylelistick runs no better than 3rd.
Just a thought, but you don\'t have to bet the Pk 4 just because they offer one.
Best of Luck.
(Mike) >
> Race 8: two quality three year old milers here: Stephentown and Sky Terrace. from post one with 113 lbs, Day might have the edge.
I hate to say it, but I like the professional chalk, and Sheet darling, STEPHENTOWN.
nice little line --- can see new top on the rail here w/Day.
gets in a point lighter than SKY TERRACE, and that might be the difference.
just hope he doesn\'t get boxed in, or checked, or some bull like that.
hate the price, but like the horse.
don\'t especially like Dan..., or Lukas, so maybe I can find value in some gimmicks.
> Race 9: Dance looks fastest, but no guarantee, anything could happen in the final sixteenth. With Ability still needs to prove she can win without a clear lead. Spain has only one win in her last 12 starts, but it\'s Lucas in Ky
no great opinion here.
I have to respect SPAIN and FOREST, based on # power and connections, but hate the prices.
think I\'d prefer SPAIN, of the 2.
I guess they\'d be on my pick 4 ticket (if I have one).
the horse I\'ll try to sneak in there is HAPPILY UNBRIDLED.
if I\'m lucky, she\'ll drift up in price a little, and Melancon will take back and stay on the rail \'til the top of the stretch.
nice line --- looking for new top at light weight w/her.
oh....also, I\'ll toss DANCE, while using GAL in my tri\'s at a big price.
> Race 10: see NTRA pk3
STREET CRY looks fastest in here, despite weight.
CONGAREE is a threat, but I\'ll take my chances against, at that price.
> Race 11: 1,3,5,9 all look the same
I prefer the 3 (MOTT), w/the 1 being my biggest worry.
I\'ll also use KATHY in gimmicks at a nice price ---- looks ready to jump, but a little slow, and trip worries me.
is there a super here...?
race 11:
I\'ll probably also try to sneak TRIXIE into my tri\'s.
With due respect to Mall and Superfreakadelic, I\'m taking a stand against Street Cry. He has never missed the money and is 9 for 10 in the top two spots. He also has the services of Jerry \"Dubai Cup\" Bailey, so an opinion that he misses the first two spots is a bold one. I think his price is gonna be right there with Arazi, I mean Conagree, so Superdave may want to reconsider his position that Street Cry is value and Arazi a toss based upon odds.
I\'m going with Arazi, regardless of odds and will need my longshot to fill the perfecta. If the longshot odds are good with Street Cry I may make a saver with him, but only to get back my bet. The money making part of my wager will be with Arazi. If Street Cry and Arazi run one-two, I\'m screwed.
lol
You\'re a moron.
Congrats
Thanks. As it turned out, the key to turning around what was shaping up to be a disastrous day was when TENPINS battled back to nose Parade for 3rd to complete a tri which paid what I thought was a very generous $215. I also got lucky in the last, but only because I happened to learn that, oddly, the temp rail was up for the 1st 3 turf races but was going to be taken down for the nightcap, something which can have a dramatic effect on horses who run on or near the lead on the CD lawn. I\'ve always agreed with your position that the only way to get value in the exotics is if you can completely eliminate at least 1 short priced fav, & this time I was lucky enough to pick the right one. Next time I\'m sure things will turn in your favor.
I thought I\'d lose interest, but I\'m starting to love it here!!
\'DANCE is a single and a prime bet\'????????
please see my picks.
this should settle the Sheets/TG debate for all time.
sincerely,
the man who \"selected\" a horse running in foal to win a major stakes...
ps - Tabitha
this should also answer your question about which other chalks I\'ve tossed at short prices --- there are 2 in there.
Trying unsucessfully to prove that he is able to handicap his way out of a paper bag. Your post is additional evidence that you don\'t understand the most fundamental aspect of the game Raggie Dave, in the same way that someone who knows how to move the pieces does not necessarily understand how to play chess. It\'s not surprising that a pretend money bettor like yourself would find odds restrictions such as the \"at 2-1 or higher\" on Dance confusing, as you have shown no signs that you understand what a true odds line is, let alone how to make one. If you did, you would understand why posting that you \"like\" Spain is meaningless & why she was a terrible bet at 2-1, even though she won. Stick to slander, lies & ridicule Raggie Dave. Your posts prove that handicapping is not among your skills.
\"Your posts prove that handicapping is not among your skills.\"
yeah, clearly.
I guess that doesn\'t say much for you....
I guess the part of the game that you don\'t understand is that the horses you pick should actually run something.
2-1 really isn\'t such a great price on a complete toss.
as for spain, I\'ll copy/paste this slowly for you:
\"I have to respect SPAIN and FOREST, based on # power and connections, but hate the prices.
I think I\'d prefer SPAIN, of the 2.\"
try sounding out the long words.
right now, I\'d say the bottle\'s winning by a neck, and you\'re empty in the stretch.
sincerely,
the man who \"selected\" a horse running in foal to win a major stakes.
by the way, judging by your posts, I\'m quite sure I\'ll be sticking to ridicule.
mall:
\"You\'re certainly running true to form today Raggie Dave. In the space of an hr or so, you\'ve managed to call JB a liar, a thief & a fraud, & were still able to \"select\" a horse running in foal to win a major stakes.\"
I guess you forgot to consider that she was running for 2.
seeing as how she ran away w/it, I wonder what that says about the rest of your list.......
Usually I can picture you in your turned-around baseball cap & single earring typing furiously as you spend yet another day in front of your computer doing posts & $1 tri boxes on youbet.com. But when I come back from the track & see two measly posts compared to the 12 yesterday, it\'s obvious that you\'ve slowed down to a crawl Raggie Dave. I thought it might be fun to have a testosterone war with you, but you\'re lacking in the two absolute essentials to engage in the battle. From a handicapping standpoint, your last posts show that you\'re so far behind that it\'s difficult to imagine how you\'re ever going to catch up. BTW, I bit on your suggestion to check out the other Bd & lo & behold, it turns out that you\'ve assumed the persona of resident funny man, who has never expressed a serious thought relating to handicapping. Your last Rags post on toilet paper is a scream Raggie Dave & one you should be very proud of. Finally,your understanding of what constitutes slander & ridicule are as informed as your handicapping. It isn\'t either when what is said is true.
first of all, let me say that I\'m a little uncomfortable w/you fantisizing about me, and cyberstalking me.
it\'s flattering, but also very creepy.
secondly, here\'s how I picture you:
drunk by the second race, screaming at the jockeys on tv, always concocting excuses, and subjecting everyone standing beside you to your arcane selection methods every time you happen to cash some 8/5.
the exact type of goof youbet gets me away from.
I guess you\'re pretty much like an angry, embittered cliff clavin(?) from Cheers.
now, on w/the quoting.....
\"From a handicapping standpoint, your last posts show that you\'re so far behind that it\'s difficult to imagine how you\'re ever going to catch up\"
who, exactly, am I \'so far behind\'?
you haven\'t been able to produce a good opinion on 16 races to date.
like you told me earlier, the pga pros concern themselves w/results.
(this was right after you told me about the big exacta you WOULD HAVE had if only your horse had run well ---- after all, it\'s the horse, not that you picked the race badly...)
superfreakicus = 1400
mall, the excuser = 0 (very appropriate)
by the way, I notice that you seem to have no problem responding to every one of my torrent of posts.
\". BTW, I bit on your suggestion to check out the other Bd \"
and what suggestion would that be, o\' drunken one?
why do I get the feeling you have endless conversations w/me inside your head?
sincerely,
the man who \"selected\" a mare in foal to win a major stakes.
I wasn\'t through with you yet & I got concerned that you were either starting to fade away or had returned to your comedy gig on the Rags Bd. It is good to hear that you\'re starting to feel uncomfortable Raggie Dave. Rest assured that it\'s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Me cyberstalking you? No Raggie Dave. Cyberstalking is when someone with an agenda does 134 posts in 2 weeks & calls people morons, idiots, thiefs,etc,etc,etc. Since you still can\'t figure it out for yourself, what I\'m doing now is a variation of what Seattle Slew did when he exposed you as a fraud & what JB did when he used you as a poster boy for the kind of ugliness & deceit he faces in the field.
Thus, you\'ve seen fit to call 15 or so people morons, imbeciles,etc, so I thought you should be given an opportunity to demonstrate the level of your intellect, secure in the knowledge that you would once again not even understand what was going on. Your post doesn\'t disappoint.
Along the same lines, someone who criticizes everyone\'s handicapping surely deserves an opportunity to show, in his own words, that he considers the method used by all pros & serious players to be, as you put it, \"arcane\".
But what about the contest, a defining moment in the life of Raggie Dave? Unlike most, I don\'t think you\'re talking about it nearly enough & think it a tragedy that news of your magnificent \"in the spirit of the contest\" triumph has not reached a wider audience. I got in touch with some of my contacts at DRF & Brisnet to see if they had any interest in a feature about you & how you picked a horse without a sheet for a pretend win in a no $$ contest, although I admit that what I had in mind was a little different than the laudatory piece on the man you call a mope. They didn\'t, but that doesn\'t mean that you can\'t add a pretend room to your apt to hold all your pretend money.
You think my description of you is fantisizing Raggie Dave? An example of a fanatsy would be Alydar\'s comment about Ms Berry. Another would be you thinking that you know how to handicap. Funny a brilliant thinker like yourself isn\'t familar with caricature, a literary device which consists of exaggerating selected characteristics for satirical effect & which only works if there is some truth to what is being exaggerated. A few regulars have done lol funny ones about me Raggie Dave, which you might want to look up in the archives, since your attempt to imitate what I was doing doesn\'t work on any level.
Your suggestion re the Rags Bd was that people here should go there if they wanted a real handicapping discussion, so I naturally assumed that the Rags Bd was where you posted your handicapping insights. What I learned instead is that you have taken on the role of house clown. In your case, the only difference between there & here is that on the Rags Bd being a joke was your intent.
jesus.....maybe if you spent that kind of time handicapping races your picks would run a little better.
if you ever write a book about me, I expect a free copy.
\"It is good to hear that you\'re starting to feel uncomfortable Raggie Dave. Rest assured that it\'s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.\"
you\'re threatening to have more gay fantasies about me?
anyway, I had a ? for mall, the pro handicapper.
maybe you can help me out w/some odds line stuff, as I am just a weekend warrior.
when the best horse in the race runs away w/it by 3 lengths at 7/2, your comment was, \"she (Spain) was a terrible bet at 2-1, even though she won.\"
now, you had also commented that a throwout in that race, who was lucky to salvage 3rd, was a \"prime bet and single\" at 2-1.
admittedly, on the surface of it, you look like a knucklehead, but I\'m quite sure there\'s more to it than meets my eye, and I was wondering if you\'d help educate me a little, so maybe one day I could enjoy the success you and your soulmate, dick, have at the windows.
ps
life\'s not so horrible --- lighten up.
You know Superfreakicus, you are starting to piss me off. Do you have anything good to say about anything or anybody ?
What is your motivation ? Bring something
(anything) positive to the table already.
Nunzio
PS Yes, I feel better now.
god forbid, I should piss YOU off....
hey, look, dude --- when you dive into the dumpster, you can\'t help but come up w/trash.
what would you like me to comment on?
Post pick 4 comments .I would not have bet Danthebluegrassman with counterfeits,SC looked really good ,if only PG stays for 3rd .I couldn\'t believe Tenpins comes again and gets 3rd ,Spain was a use because of Lucas ,the grass race I spread using the winner .