red raymond - did well sprinting as a two year old, hitting a \'6.75\' top, then flattened out a few times when stretching out. matched his top first out this year going 1m, then ran a nice \'2.75\' last going 1 1/6m while closing well. bred to go long, and gets a good pace to close into. isolated top makes him risky, but odds will be long. key at ml of 12-1.
.....
lawyer ron the saver ..... it\'s possible he blows right through the \'0\' lvl here, afleet alex style.
this is some great sheet race!!...bout time we got somethin for free....
My favorite part of the 2006 Arkansas Derby ROTW analysis is the blurb for WITH A CITY which says that the 49-1 winner at Turfway \"jumped out of his mind\" last out \"probably because of the trainer switch,\" [!!!] This, of course, is a charitable way of saying that the horse was injected with an enhancement he hadn\'t tasted before.
JohnTChance
Tried to find a way to keep the lawyer off the bench...no such luck.His last off the pace was stronger than the previous.
Private Vow was in jail the entire backstretch and looks to improve more than any other horse in the race.trainer stat for 2nd lay is not an advantage,but this is a race horse.
Jealous Report can get in the exotics,as can Well Said.Both should be long and hopefully make up for a chalky front two.5x8w5x8w6x7w6x7...ex 5x8w6x7
Well Said has been scratched.
Seven runners coming out of the Rebel. The horses that were 5th thru 10th early in the Rebel finished 1st thru 6th indicating an upfront meltdown with the back horses circling wide to earn their figs in a very slow Gr2.
Reported dead rail and negative speed Rebel makes Private Vow a use, top and under, with Lawyer Ron and these underneath, NJ Jeff, High Cotton,and With A City.Toss the phony wide and hanging Steppenwolfer and the others who benefitted in the Rebel while getting the best of it racing with the wide bias and race set-up.
Hey Miff wonder if you would go a bit more in depth regarding your disdain for STEPPENWOLFER. For a deep closer, he has a ton of positives tomorrow. Can you give me the bad vibes on this horse. Thanks. bbb
Bell,
1.Steppenwolfer hung with dead aim on Lawyer Ron in the Southwest.
2.In the Rebel he benefitted from the pace meltdown and still hung badly blowing second to Red Raymond, late.Check the replays of his last two and watch him hang the last 1/16th in both.(he\'ll probably win by a pole)
Unless the track is playing closers, he\'s tough to take.His figs are loaded with \"wide\". He\'ll need a race set up because he\'s the type that can\'t make position and needs a favorable set up,imo.There\'s some early gas in the race so a meltdown is possible, I\'m hoping and betting not.
TG is assuming that Step will save ground from the inside and they are big on that angle.If he was outside somewhere I doubt he\'d be their value choice especially since Lawyer Ron handled him so easily last time.
Appreciate your quick response but must note the positives. STEPPENWOLFER is certainly is bred to get better with age and in an interesting dichotomy; each race as a 3yo he has faced tougher, and, improved in each. In Bossier City, in his first race of the year he gamely got up after a :49 half. Then he went to Oaklawn and destroyed 2x foes. As you know this track is deep and \"first time OP\" this meet is a bet against, but he won smartly. True, he could not gain in the Southwest, but \"Lawyer\" cruised in :23..:25...25 and remember the mile heats here end early. Then the wide Rebel when bet down to 5-2. The two best works of his career ensue, with the last quarter of his last work in :23 flat under control last Staurday.
Agree JB and his boys are big on weight and ground loss, but I can bed down with that, and accuracy of info, their trademark. Aptitude colt due a \"good\" trip. \"Ron\" more than a bit rank in last and making his 14th start for young talented boy carrying big time pressure and throughout race bullseye.
Personally, I am a top shelf pick 4 player and almost always go there. I did hammera runaway $47 winner at OP after a first leg mistake, a week ago, but think I have a single in the Bluegrass and am struggling with minor stakes. Any help? bbb
Bell,
Just happened to make my early Pick 4 selections. ALL are predicated on how the various surfaces are playing during the day tomorrow(speed or close, inside or out) I do not believe there is any bad weather predicted.
Oak Race 7. 8,4,2.
Kee Race 8. 1,5,7.
Kee Race 9. 2,4. Like Bailey and Prado, I do not like Ist Samurai even though his figs are very good except for his last. I know that Angel Cordero lamented that Bluegrass Cat was \"spinning his wheels\" in his last race at TAMPA.The way KEE is playing, inside speed, and with Pletcher winnings everything in site there, I\'ll probably step out on BC if the track is still biased inside tomorrow.
Oak Race 9. 4,7. I\'m heavier with the 4. If they are circling wide during the day, I\'ll save with 1 and 3.
Thanks for your comments about OP.I do not follow that track and only read DRF Weekly to get handle on how the track usually plays.I\'m not confident at that track.
Goes to show you that even with thoro the opinions are all over the board. Anyone keying the jones horse in the pk4 at oaklawn.
with the hope there aren\'t any more defections....
Ron and Vow ontop w/stepp & Jealous Profit filling up tote board.5/278...58w58w2,7/2,7...8 over2 5 7...5 8/5 8/2/7...stirred,never shaken
Miff,
re the rebel - the other speed types that faded went of at 12-1, 87-1, and 40-1. the fav closed and won, and steppen closed for third at 5-2. it\'s just that red raymond outperformed, and private vow underperformed. also, the late pace figs for the closers were very good compared to the final rating. do you really think this race collapsed?
Mike D,
When ALL the back runners circle, to me, it\'s a collapse, others will see it differently.You forgot that Private Vow at 2-1 was also up close.There is an argument for a bad rail, negative speed day also.The winning jock was instructed to get off the inside which is just the opposite of what you would expect in a two turn race.
Good luck!
Mike
In the May 6 race, I\'ll take Sweetnorthernsaint over Brother Derek but this horse Strong Contender might be a monster. If he doesn\'t finish ahead of Bluegrass Cat, I\'ll never go to the track again (said tongue in cheek).
We\'ll see what happens this afternoon.
Bally Ache Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In the May 6 race, I\'ll take Sweetnorthernsaint
> over Brother Derek but this horse Strong Contender
> might be a monster. If he doesn\'t finish ahead of
> Bluegrass Cat, I\'ll never go to the track again
> (said tongue in cheek).
>
> We\'ll see what happens this afternoon.
Mr. Sekeguchi might be a monster two. But what objective basis is there to believe that on 2 races?
You think they stole him at the sales for 800K?
You think that front end score at Gulfstream on an 02 Variant was motoring?
You think all the stables \"happy talk\" about him makes him fast too?
Or is it the TFig? Because if it is, I\'m not aware of it. I think he\'s about 4th fastest with Cause to Believe he\'ll improve. But monster, I\'m gonna wait for at least one good race before I use the M word.
nob hill deelite
the M word for you chuck is magnificent.
Private Vow/Lawyer Ron......in that order.