Can anyone out there provide, for the last 5 or 10 years, which horse has the highest Beyer going into the Derby? The lowest TG? The lowest Rag #?
Was Giacomo really the eighteenth fastest horse going into last years race?
Just curious.
Any attempt to tie or convert these figures to Timeform Ratings or the price of diesel fuel in Texas will not be appreciated.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Can anyone out there provide, for the last 5 or 10
> years, which horse has the highest Beyer going
> into the Derby? The lowest TG? The lowest Rag #?
>
> Was Giacomo really the eighteenth fastest horse
> going into last years race?
>
> Just curious.
>
> Any attempt to tie or convert these figures to
> Timeform Ratings or the price of diesel fuel in
> Texas will not be appreciated.
I think you can go to Archives here for Tgraph figures from the last five years or so.
2004 Tapit, Birdstone and Action this day all had figures in the 98 Beyer Range
2005 Andromedas Hero and Spanish Chestnut had Beyers in the 94 range.
Giacomo had a 98 in his p.p.s from a 3rd place effort in the Sham.
Both Lion Heart and The Cliff\'s Edge had faster Beyers than Smarty had and Birdstone deprived Smarty of the Triple Crown with a good Belmont.
I think I see where your going. I\'ve got my hands full determining who has the speed now. In allocating time, figuring out where Beyer went wrong or right in the past isn\'t on my agenda. I\'m gonna voice concern where I think hes off base now though.
p.s. I can recall one his figs were correct upon. He had War Emblem fastest if i\'m not mistaken.
lowest TG bellamy road -5 last year
Richiebee,
He was 18th fastest, ran a huge top in the Derby(improved app 7 lenghts).As a pisano,I think, you should be ashamed that you did not cash on an Italian horse even though he couldn\'t outrun a fat man going in.
Mike
Richie –
Last year, I put a bunch of TG\'s Derby archive data on a spreadsheet to play with. The following are, according to my spreadsheet, the horses with the best 3yo tops going into the Derby for the archive years. Where two horses were tied, I listed them both. I apologize in advance for any errors.
1997 – Pulpit
1998 – Indian Charlie / Chilito
1999 – First American
2000 – Fusaichi Pegasus / Hal\'s Hope
2001 – Millenium Wind
2002 – Came Home
2003 – Empire Maker
2004 – Smarty Jones
2005 – Bellamy Road
I\'m not sure what this all proves other than that there\'s more to handicapping the Derby with TG than finding the horse with the best top.
Miff:
No, I\'m a pre Verrazzano non Italian native Staten Islander. But even if I cranked up Sinatra in my Caddy on the way over to Momma\'s Sunday afternoon for meatballs and gravy, it still would have been tough to come up with Giacomo. As I recall he was NW2LT going into the Derby and as such one of the first I eliminated.
Bit:
I really appreciate the recap. I am on record as saying that many effective handicapping tools/tenets just aren\'t as effective when looking at the Derby. Most who would say that performance figures become more effective in relation to the quality of a race (animals sounder and thereby more consistent) are willing to say the Derby is an exception. The average field size for US racing is probably somewhere between 7- 9 horses, in the Derby 20 might go; and while some of these animals might be better bred than others for 10 furlongs, none are really proven at the trip.
I know you are a pattern guy and at least you will have a few horses that have some 2YO races to work with; it seems like the field this year has a little more seasoning in terms of number of starts than last year.
Surprised that a full gate shows up to face Lawyer Ron in the Ark Derby; I guess the thinking is that LR is merely prepping and will not be asked for 100%.
Richie,
Email me about Firday Keeneland. I am leaving at 10:30 for the track.
Nc Tony
Richie -
Here\'s a link to a DRF article that contains information about the performance of the best-Beyer horses in the Derby, going back (perhaps not coincidentally) to Lil E Tee:
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=73679&subs=0&arc=0
Bit:
Thanks for the link.
Should be a great betting Derby, can\'t imagine the favorite going off at odds less than 5/1.
Don\'t know if he has a Derby ride, but if I liked Sinister Minister, best case scenario might be P Val on Sinister with Gomez sticking to Bob and John.
Gomez on Bob and John
If Bejarano takes Point Determined probably Victor Espinoza on Sinister Minister.
Big:
Gomez\'s choice or Baffert\'s?
I think the Gomez agent,although Gomez is also Bafferts go to jock.
Gomez has ridden all 3 of the Baffert derby horses once.He\'s been working Sinister Minister and Bob and John in the mornings.Worked Bob and John again today.Victor Ezpinoza worked Point Determined.Victor riding Balance last weekend moved him to 3rd in the pecking order which may not be a bad thing if he ends up on Sinister Minister.
I don\'t think its firmed up yet,but it sounds like thats the way its going to fall.
Does Baffert ever use Valenzuela?
Baffert uses P.Val sometimes.It would be interesting to see, arguably, the best dead send jockey on Sin Minister.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Big:
>
> Gomez\'s choice or Baffert\'s?
Where to start?
Jockey choices...I did read that Gomez\'s agent said that Garrett would be riding Bob and John in the Derby. Which leads me to where I really want to start...Bob and John.
Bob and John is a May foal and he most certainly has been a little green. He is however blossoming. He\'s a spring Tulip reaching for the sun and come the First Saturday in May, he may be in full bloom.
Which brings us back to Garrett Gomez. Maybe by the First Saturday in May Bob and John will develop even further and eclipse where Sinister Minister was last Saturday. Regardless of that I can\'t find any reason to discount what Sinister Minister did on the track that day.
Now to Bob Baffert. Bob said that Sinister Minister was going to Kentucky quote \"As soon as he gets up...he laid it all on the line in the Blue Grass\". Unquote. (Note that is a fairly accurate paraphrase.) What do you all think about that? Was Baffert just shooting from the hip regarding the reality of what occurred on Saturday? Or does anyone think that just perhaps there may have been a little more to what he said?
The fastest horse will certainly win the Derby, but to cash do you believe you sometimes have to think your way back to the window?
CTC - no idea what you are leading to...can you explain?
Secondly, the radio show tonight from MIA had several guests all saying tha tLawyer ron was slow....slow? they were going on Beyers, which don\'t necessarily match what TG has him....proof of a better product w/ TG?
Funny that Point Determined who doesn\'t interest Gomez could go off shortest of the 3 Baffert horses.
Shanahan:
Would never want to speak on behalf of A.P. Chuckles, but he seemed to be saying that Baffert candidly admitted that the BG took its toll on SM.
The DRF chart of the BG is fascinating to me... it says that SM finished \"under brisk left handed pressure\", yet the final 3/8s was run in 38.91 seconds.
Also heard part of the radio broadcast; besides saying that LR was \"slow\", none of the commentators were very high on John McKee.
Also interesting that they mentioned that the final part of the Oaklawn stretch is uphill; Bailey mentioned this on the Saturday telecast; had never heard this before. I thought only the animals that I bet on were running uphill.
FWIW, and I am not much of a \"time man\" 10 out of the last 11 derby winners closed in under 13, and 9 -11 under 38. Pretty interesting no?
Actually, the Oaklawn stretch is DOWNHILL for 9F races:
The formatting is a little weird, but the content still reads...
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:57QVqVvetyUJ:www.drf.com/newsletter/davidowitz042703.pdf+davidowitz+arkansas+derby+downhill&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=4
You do remember that the last time SM had run he had bounced off of the rail at Golden Gate. The Jock may have been told to keep him off the rail.
Lance:
Appreciate the link, and it presents good evidence that the final furlong at OP is downhill. I was fairly certain I had heard Bailey mention that the stretch sloped uphill, but as old age advances I guess I hear only what I want to hear.
I wonder if management at OP has ever considered \"leveling the playing field\" so to speak?
I thought JD said the Keeneland stretch was downhill.
I\'m enjoying this thread. Thanks guys!
Regarding Sinster Minester, as visually impressive as the Blue Grass was, I felt that was an exceptionally weak field and going wire to wire at Keeneland as well as a long history I personally have of betting horses who looked super in the Blue Grass and fizzled on Derby Day would lead me to make him (almost) an automatic throw-out, especailly with the amount of other quality speed horses; huge beyers or figs in lone speed races mean very little to me. I am much more in a quandry trying to evaluate Brother Derek\'s SA Derby, that race still has me puzzled.
Regarding Baffert & P-Val he sometimes uses P-Val, but not usually on anything decent; it would seem a no brainer if you have a horse like Minister, why wouldn\'t you want P-val on him? But a lot of trainers out west have a bias against him for his past history -- stupid in my opinion. Victor Espinoza is a horror show on a horse -- he\'s incredible, really -- loves to go as wide as possible for as long as possible on every horse he rides in every race he rides. I wouldn\'t ride him in a mule race -- well, maybe a mule race because they don\'t have turns -- he\'d be fine there. I remember War Emblem, so don\'t get on me there -- another example of a lone speed type -- if no one went with him, he was super -- in any kind of a fight, he disappered. The derby is usually a fight.
Lance Wrote:
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> Actually, the Oaklawn stretch is DOWNHILL for 9F
> races:
>
> The formatting is a little weird, but the content
> still reads...
>
> [72.14.203.104]
Randy Moss the surveyor. The doubter of Althea and Cherokee\'s closing fractions. I wonder if he doubted Smarty and Alex too?
Thats a very old story that was thoroughly debunked.
Quit confusing the folks. Its hard enough to pick the Derby for people. Poor Dana666 and RICH have A.P.Warrior as a horse with potential, now you\'ve filled their heads with whitewater rafting.
\"Thats a very old story that was thoroughly debunked.\"
Was it really really debunked? I\'ve heard nothing of the sort. If so, my bad.
tmon Wrote:
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> You do remember that the last time SM had run he
> had bounced off of the rail at Golden Gate. The
> Jock may have been told to keep him off the rail.
That is correct. In his first two turn attempt vs. Cause to Believe he bounded off the rail twice. Cause may have run him down anyway, but he deserved a chance that he might have needed to see two turns twice. Now he has.