Looking back over the past derbies, I just don\'t see a horse with 3 BIG efforts in a row prior to the derby winning on derby day. I will not be putting anything on those kinds of horses, sweetnorthernsaint comes to mind this year. A case of a little to much, to soon.
Rich,
Guess you missed Smarty Jones pre-derby efforts.
That\'s what I was saying. WTF??? Smarty Jones was HUGE all year as was Afleet Alex save for his Rebel appearence where he had bad lungs.
I am going with Saint. He\'s the fastest and if you look closely his races have been nicely spaced, he\'s been well spotted and he should at least pair his latest top if not move forward. A bounce is also a possibility but until he bounces I\'m riding his ass all the way to the windows.
Funny Cide is another who ran some tough heats before winning the Derby. So did the Lukas Horse Charismatic.
Like Chuckles said...SNS is \"bounce proof\" baby! He\'s your Derby winnah!!!!!
Well Buck, I think claimers have won once in the last fifty years, geldings have won once in the last seventy years and your pick is both. bbb
The Gelded Claimer angle in the Derby.
Whatever happened to Dual Qualifiers?
Shhhhh
NC Tony
with 3 big #\'s prior to the derby , the horse would invariably have to win it on a backward move . smarty was and should have been hands off after the 1st big negative number ( -4? ) , though he did hold together for a while .
That\'s what I was getting at, your asking an awful lot of a young horse to hit that 4th big number in a row, especially at these levels of performance. We are not talking 2\'s or 3\'s, we are talking negatives and 0. SNS probably jumped 3 or 4pts to a -2? or -3. If he wins, its on a backward move.
with better spacing of race days,it seems to me that a young 3 yr. old should continue to progress more w/each race both physically and mentally.
My reasoning is : a 4 or 5 year old pointing to the B.C. at the end of year is mature and \"conditioned mentally to gear up for a big race;whereas a 3 starting his/her season needs the repitition of racing cicumstances to familiarize himself w/his occupation.
The horses with only 2 week gaps,along w/large jumps in class fall off(unless they peak two weeks before derby and maintain their edge.)
Friedman has long claimed that the main reason good horses are more consistent ,is because their bounce occurs on the training track.
Of course there is something warm and fuzzy betting an animal that has regressed a little and his last top was 6-8 weeks ago,but that doesn\'t apply as much to improving horses(3yr. olds in spring) as it does w/older nags.
So lets all bet the one who is coming up to a big effort,but has not broken thru yet like a Bob and John!...now...just who is this animal??