We learned an Honour and Glory coming off a wet strip Gulfstream win is no bargain at odds on upon a wet strip elsewhere.
We learned that Bob Baffert is the once and future King and no one else compares.
We learned that Brother Derek is a heckuva horse with things his own way. Stevie Wonder was never gonna beat this horse and not many others will either.
We learned that the Illinois Derby is still one of the select paths to greatness, even for another horse that can\'t breed off his resume.
I am not sure that the Wet Strip angle is what got Keyed Entry beat, looks a little like Value Plus did a couple of years.
I don\'t know about the no one else compares comment on Baffert but he was patient with Bob and John all spring, has a quality win on the horses resume, did the owner right with his handling. The bullet work tipped his hand and there may be more coming. He\'ll need them.
Brother Derek looked good and Hendricks is once again proving, give a good horse to a good trainer and a good guy and he will do a good job. (See Servis and Ricthie)
Sweetnorthernsaint has a bad habit of running away from his field when he turns for home in front. You think he will be in same spot on Derby Day.
Jerry I downloaded the Full Card from Hawthorne and did not get the Ostrich Race. I would like a refund.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> I am not sure that the Wet Strip angle is what got
> Keyed Entry beat, looks a little like Value Plus
> did a couple of years.
The difference is Value Plus caved in the Wood. Keyed Entry was beaten 2 lengths I think. Thats a must go scenario with the hope of catching a speed surface Derby Day. The Blue Monkey is making all the calls now.
>
> I don\'t know about the no one else compares
> comment on Baffert but he was patient with Bob and
> John all spring, has a quality win on the horses
> resume, did the owner right with his handling. The
> bullet work tipped his hand and there may be more
> coming. He\'ll need them.
Bob and John is not my favorite. Not saying I won\'t bet him just yet, but hes a good horse and has been a fast horse since the Sham. To my eye his pattern is Sham of 1-2, Regression due to trouble in the San Felipe to a 3.1 and now a an improvement to the zero or less range. I\'ll leave that one to T Graph. That was the only 2 turn race and I\'m still working on it. Point Determined is also a good horse on the improve. Baffert is dangerous, but I can\'t say yet this is his year.
> Brother Derek looked good and Hendricks is once
> again proving, give a good horse to a good trainer
> and a good guy and he will do a good job. (See
> Servis and Ricthie)
>
> Sweetnorthernsaint has a bad habit of running away
> from his field when he turns for home in front.
> You think he will be in same spot on Derby Day.
Saint absolutely cruised, check out the final eighth fraction. He\'s your Derby winner with a trip unless you want to project bounce. I dont\' care how fast he ran, he aint gonna bounce. Hes bounceproof baby. He\'s anti March Madness.
> Jerry I downloaded the Full Card from Hawthorne
> and did not get the Ostrich Race. I would like a
> refund.
The Ostrich Race was last Saturday. It was called the Florida Derby.
gotta learn to spell, its the oatmeal stout
Not to debate the figure side of things regarding the Sham but go back and look between the Sham and the San Rafael. Point Determined was worked faster than Bob and John on every work. Bob and John was not primed on San Rafael Day, Point Determined was. Pay close attention to the intensity of Bob and Johns training over the next four weeks. It will tell you all you need to know.
Let me know what the quit figure is for the Wood.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not to debate the figure side of things regarding
> the Sham but go back and look between the Sham and
> the San Rafael. Point Determined was worked faster
> than Bob and John on every work. Bob and John was
> not primed on San Rafael Day, Point Determined
> was. Pay close attention to the intensity of Bob
> and Johns training over the next four weeks. It
> will tell you all you need to know.
>
> Let me know what the quit figure is for the Wood.
>
>
Not sure I share your sentiments about the \"San Felipe\". I know, all those \"San\" races are hard to distinguish. My belief is that Bob and John had a very troubled trip and ran well to finish where he did. I think Baffert was pleased with the race adn rewarded him with a very expensive ship to New York. It was money well spent. If I recall correctly he sent Conagree to New York too and that one ran a game Third in the Derby after beating the eventual Derby winner.
Isn\'t it delicious how in 2005 we had a remarkable Wood raw race time that everyone proclaimed was the equaling of Riva Ridges efforts and this year we have an absolutely pedestrian time that everyone is pointing to and suggesting fraud, apparently including the illustrious Brad Free. But there are variables to consider. Bob and John is an honest horse and that was an honest race.
Silver,
I had the binocs on Bob and John and he did not have a smooth first eighth. Gomez had to take a hold when he kinda got sandwiched early and then move outside and chased. Ran well, just think he has too many tougher runners to overtake in the next 4 weeks and he\'s still a little immature.He pulled up quickly after the wire and was a little goofy.
Troubled trip or not facts are facts. Start from 2/26/06 and begin working forward. Note who he then worked faster on 4/2/06.
Bob and John
04/02/2006 SA 6F 1:11.20 Dirt Fast H
03/27/2006 SA 4F :47.80 Dirt Fast H
03/15/2006 SA 4F :48.60 Dirt Fast H
03/10/2006 SA 5F :58.80 Dirt Fast H
03/05/2006 SA 5F :59.60 Dirt Fast H
02/26/2006 SA 4F :48.00 Dirt Fast H
02/21/2006 SA 4F :49.40 Dirt Fast H
02/14/2006 SA 3F :36.40 Dirt Fast H
01/30/2006 SA 4F :47.60 Dirt Fast B
01/14/2006 SA 6F 1:14.40 Dirt Fast H
Point Determined
04/02/2006 SA 5F :59.80 Dirt Fast H
03/27/2006 SA 4F :46.80 Dirt Fast H
03/15/2006 SA 4F :47.80 Dirt Fast H
03/10/2006 SA 6F 1:11.80 Dirt Fast H
03/05/2006 SA 5F 1:00.00 Dirt Fast H
02/26/2006 SA 4F :47.00 Dirt Fast H
02/13/2006 SA 4F :47.00 Dirt Fast H
01/30/2006 SA 5F :59.60 Dirt Fast H
01/25/2006 SA 4F :49.80 Dirt Fast H
The ship was cheap because he was running for second money at Santa Anita.
You mean his lumbering style will have problems in a 20 horse field on Derby Day. Particularly one that could be loaded with early speed.
I tend to agree. But he is a nice horse and Baffert has done a good job with him.
Sweetnorthernsaint gobbles ground like Skip Away did, excepts he\'s even more athletic...much like a swimmer\'s physique. I think this horse is very special. Not sure what was up on Gotham Day, but he found his customary \"second gear\" in the stretch today but more importantly showed rate-ability. I see a nice trip being worked out at Churchill. If he can draw posts 1-10 at Louisville I will be loving my $100 35-1 future!!!! Might not even be able to sleep the night before.
I can\'t wait for May. I feel like a partner on this one being that I hand picked him off his maiden breaker. I still have yet to see a horse run this year (of any age or surface) that has the fluid stride this one does...
And to think I could have had him for $50G last year!!!!! Doh!!!!
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sweetnorthernsaint gobbles ground like Skip Away
> did, excepts he\'s even more athletic...much like a
> swimmer\'s physique. I think this horse is very
> special. Not sure what was up on Gotham Day, but
> he found his customary \"second gear\" in the
> stretch today but more importantly showed
> rate-ability. I see a nice trip being worked out
> at Churchill. If he can draw posts 1-10 at
> Louisville I will be loving my $100 35-1
> future!!!! Might not even be able to sleep the
> night before.
>
> I can\'t wait for May. I feel like a partner on
> this one being that I hand picked him off his
> maiden breaker. I still have yet to see a horse
> run this year (of any age or surface) that has the
> fluid stride this one does...
>
> And to think I could have had him for $50G last
> year!!!!! Doh!!!!
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/08/06 10:19PM by
> Uncle Buck.
Gotham day was an inner tube short run to the first turn and a bias to front horses. Trouble will impact even good horses, but what was significant is that he was coming late and certainly would have won at 9 marks even on that track.
Bob and John\'s San Felipe is testament to what trouble can do to a horse.....its why you really need a clean run or a superior horse and sometimes both to win the Derby.
I liked Saint as soon as realized the what the split variant said of his sprint win January 9th. But didn\'t have ur conviction to bet him. I hope you cash that one. They are belly aching about the Illinois Derby pace but they are mistaken it was legit. The track was slow and that time was legit on that track. Hollendorfer is a wannabe
Ctc,
Shhhhh Be very quiet when you use the word bias, you might stir up a long drawn out conversation.
I played the race very stupidly. I loved Jasil but only played him on top of everything than ran 1-2+4. Ohh well.
NC Tony
By the way, Jazil\'s explosion was run in a rousing 40.50 for the last three eights with a stretch tail wind (he gained app 10 lenghts, from memory) The pace was fast for those conditions and surface.Harness horses at the Meadowlands ran their last three eighths in about the same split last night, to put things in perspective.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> By the way, Jazil\'s explosion was run in a rousing
> 40.50 for the last three eights with a stretch
> tail wind (he gained app 10 lenghts, from memory)
> The pace was fast for those conditions and
> surface.Harness horses at the Meadowlands ran
> their last three eighths in about the same split
> last night, to put things in perspective.
Aqueduct, Saturday April 8th, 2006
Track: Sloppy/Sealed, all day
only two races had faster 6 furlong fractional calls than the Wood. They were the Bayshore, where the best sprinter in the country ran and the Carter. The Wood was racehorse fast. They were motoring. The track was deep and tiring and the more doubters force scrutiny of that card the better the Wood looks. Keyed Entry should run in the Derby and Bob and John and Jazil moved further up. Its gonna be a wing dinger for the placing horses in the Derby, even if the winner is about a lock.
Chuck,
I think the Wood was an ok performance but Jazil\'s late run was more an optical illusion than it was fast. Don\'t forget KE and Bob and John were going a fast pace for the day and were slowing dramatically when Jazil came.
Incidentally, Pletcher stated to DRF that he will decide in a few days if KE is going to the Derby. Prado bailed off in favor of Barbaro and Pletcher was \"disappointed\" in KE\'s performance.
About the only broad stroke statistic that seems to mean something year-to-year is the one that suggests the Derby winner will have lost his final prep. Yesterday\'s races (and the Florida Derby) will probably fall into that category when we view the Derby in retrospect.
The impressions given by the losers in yesterday\'s races left me with two worth recalling during the next few weeks. (Not that impressions mean more than rational analysis.)
Point Determined did wierd things at Santa Anita, going to sleep in the turn, but waking up down the lane. He gave the impression of being the real thing, using this race as a proper prep.
AP Warrior may be the bet of the two, however. Santa Anita has been won often by horses like Brother Derek and he impresses me about as much as several in the past who went nowhere at Churchill. AP Warrior chased the winner into a paceless pace, used great acceleration to catch him and then tired just the way one would expect in that situation. Maybe the best prep possible for the big one.
The horses running in the Mid West and on the East Coast won\'t count this year and will be running for third and fourth. None of them impressed at all.
Actually Jazil ran his last 3/8ths in 37.09
He went 6f in 114.75 and finished 151.84
Big,
From memory, I had him making up app 10 lenghts. You checked and it\'s app 14.Thanks
Mike
was the wood the big dance for baffert\'s B&J? anybody get the feeling that april 8 was for the mcnairs, but may 6 will be for the lewis family?
will jazil close with that same rush after running ten wide over a souped up derby day track?
1:23 and change for those juiced up speedballs in the carter? how brutal were those conditions?
can bro derek do that for another 1/8th?
the saint is a star. is he athletic enough to do his thing in a 20 horse field though?
....
just can\'t take a strong stand yet. still have two big races next w/e, and discreet cat\'s ship and works.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I think the Wood was an ok performance but Jazil\'s
> late run was more an optical illusion than it was
> fast. Don\'t forget KE and Bob and John were going
> a fast pace for the day and were slowing
> dramatically when Jazil came.
Miff, I share your concerns about Jazil\'s pace style and whether more distance and more traffic and the unlikelihood of him getting the Wood trip will allow him to make up the difference on Bob and John. Factoring that Bob and John is most certainly not a plodder. I read several posts about Bob & John\'s plodding, lagging behind style but to my eye he\'s gonna have a very good pace style for this Derby. He\'s also running into some trouble and fairing pretty well. Jazil however will be on some of my tickets. Maybe even as high as second. I\'m not sure yet.
> Incidentally, Pletcher stated to DRF that he will
> decide in a few days if KE is going to the Derby.
> Prado bailed off in favor of Barbaro and Pletcher
> was \"disappointed\" in KE\'s performance.
I read what Pletcher said. He expected to win that Wood with the tactical advantage he had. What happened is that Bob and John brought the race to Keyed Entry and there was nothing Key could do. But Key ran well. He ran very well and if Churchill Downs is speed favoring that first Saturday in May a horse can\'t win if a horse doesn\'t run. Ask Lukas about running as many as you can get in. Things happen in that race.
>but to my eye he\'s gonna have a very good pace style for this Derby.
You already know what the pace is going to be four weeks from today.
Interesting.........
The race yesterday was nearly an allout sprint for Bob and John as you said because he took the race to Keyed Entry. As I have said more than once on this Board recently with Baffert the works tell the story. Bob and John has not been trained that hard either because the trainer is waiting or the horse can\'t take it. Watch him over the next four weeks.
The last horse I can remember Baffert put thru a lung conditioning pace pressing trip prep.
Silver Charm.......
Chuckretariat:
In your original \"We learned a lot today\" post, you opened with the following observation: \"We learned an Honor and Glory coming off a wet strip Gulfstream win is no bargain at odds on upon a wet strip elsewhere\". Now it seems as if you are willing to count KE as a contender at the Derby.
With apologies to Indulto, I notice plenty of post prep prevarication from an always prepared but sometimes preposterous prolific poster.
H and G is by Relaunch, KE should have relished the goo yesterday, as he did at the Gulf. (B and J, by Seeking the Gold (Mr P.), also had a right to move up in the wet). Watching the rerun, JD Bailey stated that KE probably didn\'t want 9 \"marks\". Prado put on his Barbaro baseball cap as soon as his feet hit terra firma after dismounting.
True, Pletcher will probably employ the Zito strategy and show up May 6 with 2 forwards, 2 guards and a center. But this Derby thing is more than a monkey on his back, it may be more like Ahab\'s great fish, er... mammal.
They got a barn burner going on down at Augusta Downs, with a lot of the highweights in with a chance at the quarter pole...
Chuck,
Bob and John is a long striding one paced type and he is not quick at all. I\'ll assume he ran a top yesterday. I guess you have not seen his pace figs but he is not as QUICK as:
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Sweetnsaint
Barbaro
Sharp Humor
Discreet Cat
Keyed Entry
I would be very concerned about his ability to make position in a 20 horse field loaded with gas.I\'ve seen all his races and never saw him really quicken. I would think his best shot would be to trip out, stalking from just off the leader, like yesterday but I can\'t see that in my minds eye with the above group.I know you liked the Wood alot, I thought it was OK.
It\'s still early and the next 24-72 hours will tell something about how they all came out of yesterdays races.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckretariat:
>
> In your original \"We learned a lot today\" post,
> you opened with the following observation: \"We
> learned an Honor and Glory coming off a wet strip
> Gulfstream win is no bargain at odds on upon a wet
> strip elsewhere\". Now it seems as if you are
> willing to count KE as a contender at the Derby.
>
> With apologies to Indulto, I notice plenty of
> post prep prevarication from an always prepared
> but sometimes preposterous prolific poster.
>
> H and G is by Relaunch, KE should have relished
> the goo yesterday, as he did at the Gulf. (B and
> J, by Seeking the Gold (Mr P.), also had a right
> to move up in the wet). Watching the rerun, JD
> Bailey stated that KE probably didn\'t want 9
> \"marks\". Prado put on his Barbaro baseball cap as
> soon as his feet hit terra firma after
> dismounting.
>
> True, Pletcher will probably employ the Zito
> strategy and show up May 6 with 2 forwards, 2
> guards and a center. But this Derby thing is more
> than a monkey on his back, it may be more like
> Ahab\'s great fish, er... mammal.
>
> They got a barn burner going on down at Augusta
> Downs, with a lot of the highweights in with a
> chance at the quarter pole...
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/09/06 03:57PM by
> richiebee.
Richie, I\'m pretty sure Todd Pletcher reads this board. I\'m trying to buck him up into running Keyman in the Derby. I want him in that race.
If Derby Day catches a 1985 type track can Keyman win? Yeah, he can win. You bet he can win. He\'s got the fastest figure before yesterday of any of the Nominees. He\'s out of a wonderful Cryptoclearance mare But, did I make him part of my Top Ten minus 6? Did I send it in upon him big time in the Wood?
Will he be my Key? Prolly not, but that doesnt mean Toddini can\'t work the magic baby.
Yeah, that blue monkey is looking more and more like a silverback gorilla. Check out the number of Pletcher influenced purchases this year and how many of them are running:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/futures/pps/tc_noms8.pdf
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Bob and John is a long striding one paced type and
> he is not quick at all. I\'ll assume he ran a top
> yesterday. I guess you have not seen his pace figs
> but he is not as QUICK as:
>
> Brother Derek
> Lawyer Ron
> Sweetnsaint
> Barbaro
> Sharp Humor
> Discreet Cat
> Keyed Entry
>
>
> I would be very concerned about his ability to
> make position in a 20 horse field loaded with
> gas.I\'ve seen all his races and never saw him
> really quicken. I would think his best shot would
> be to trip out, stalking from just off the leader,
> like yesterday but I can\'t see that in my minds
> eye with the above group.I know you liked the Wood
> alot, I thought it was OK.
>
> It\'s still early and the next 24-72 hours will
> tell something about how they all came out of
> yesterdays races.
With the exception of Saint, I tend to agree with you that Bob & John does not have the pace numbers of those horses. And you may be correct in saying that he does not have an explosive late move. However, he has the type of tactical speed that works well in the Derby and unlike many, he is bred to make the trip. He\'ll be positioned to make first run on the tiring pace setters. He\'ll have to find a way to outgame one very good horse with the same likely trip though.
missed discreet cat in there. not sure about him have nothing to judge him on really.
Most of these horses will be asked to ship in to surroundings they have never been in, bed down, adjust and quickly become medicated, with Ky\'s liberal rules, with more drugs than the average Woodstock attendee.
The next 6-7 days will tell everyone a lot.
\"Most of these horses will be asked to ship in to surroundings they have never been in, bed down, adjust and quickly become medicated, with Ky\'s liberal rules, with more drugs than the average Woodstock attendee\"
Silver,
You forgot ....and carry more weight than ever before, race for the first time at 10f, a new surface and 100k plus loons screaming and carrying on.
Piece of cake picking the winner!
Spend a Chuck:
Yes, Crypto is a known source of stamina, having produced many ponderous plodders over the years. But my last perusal of the BloodHorse revealed that Crypto is not ranked among the top 50 broodmare sires...
As to Discreet Cat, would be surprised if you would fall victim to all that hype. IMO, most of the field that he beat in the desert would have struggled in a N1X heat at Gulfstream. If Sheik Mo wants to smell the roses, he will eventually need to swallow his pride and enlist the help of a proven (American) Derby trainer.
What will be interesting now is to see which trainers/ colts go directly to CD to acclimate and which trainers play the \"I\'m going to stay at home where my colt is comfortable\" card.
SC:
Don\'t know what you mean about Woodstock... I was there, I think.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> was the wood the big dance for baffert\'s B&J?
> anybody get the feeling that april 8 was for the
> mcnairs, but may 6 will be for the lewis family?
If Gomez ditches Bob and John to get back on Point Determined who he sat on first time in the San Felipe you\'ll have your answer.PD has the right style and breeding for the race.All of the fast ones will be fighting to carve out the same trip.Point Determined just has to hang back and finish strong.His Santa Anita probably doesn\'t have him fast enough,but he\'s headed in the right direction.Have to check on it in the archives,but I think the Baffert Derby winners all jumped up on Derby day,and so did Cavonnier.
> can bro derek do that for another 1/8th?
>
> Don\'t like the dripping kidney sweat going to the post in every race he\'s run this year.It hasn\'t hurt him yet,but he gets a whole new scene at Churchill.If he\'s that keyed up at SA he might be toast before the post parade at Churchill.Throw in another 1/8th and a bunch of fast horses who have similar styles and he\'s a favorite who can run off the board.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Cavonnier jumped up 2 pts in the Derby
Silver Charm 2.75 pt new top at Churchill
Real Quiet paired
War Emblem 1.5 point new top in the Derby after Baffert got him.
93 beyer for B&J? more questions. Jerry will have it much faster, probably around the \'0\' lvl.
i think point determined will start to get a lot of attention. he fits the mold that people like to see - bred to go long, nice close to a tough loose on the lead customer in his final prep, big name trainer..... it would be a great story for the lewis family as well.
in fact, there will be a few interesting stories this year. you have the hero matz with his undefeated colt, you have the saint rising up from obscurity, and most importantly, you have the govt of dubai, who was just told to f... off and get away from our assets by the us congress, coming in and trying to take their first ky derby with the brilliant discreet cat.
this is starting to get exciting.
>this is starting to get exciting.
And if Lukas decides to enter Folklore........
I don\'t think Gomez will have that option. Bejarano was given the mount on Point Determined in the Santa Anita Derby on the condition that he would commit to ride him in the Kentucky Derby.
DD,
Bejerano is comitted to First Samurai if that horse goes on.
NC Tony
Chuck,
Beyer just raised Keyed Entry to 95ish in the Wood, more hope, no?