Just posted on DRF, Illinois Derby Draw.
The four program favorites occupy the outside 4 stalls in the gate: Pp 7, Cause to Believe, Baze 5/2, PP8 Racketeer, PVal 5/1, PP9, My Golden Song, DeCarlo 5/1, PP10 Sweetnorthernsaint, Desormeaux 5/1.
After rolling a 10 for SNS\'s last 2 races, Trombetta should let someone else phone in the entry next time.
Believe it or not I am already looking at animals who will miss the Derby but could factor in the Preakness. SNS and Strong Contender would have to be at the top of that list as they may both miss the Derby on the basis of earnings, especially if there are a lot of vanity (DWL, NZ, BB) entries. These earnings rankings are starting to become as interesting as the races themselves (ask John Ward)
I only saw this Cause to Believe run once and he looked good. Is he fast? Anyone know if he\'s a \"real\" horse.
Richiebee -
I don\'t generally play Hawthorne, but going 9f on an 8f oval, it seems like Desormeaux should have a reasonable opportunity (the full length of the stretch) to get over.
I agree that the earnings situation is interesting. On the most recent earnings list put out by Churchill, neither Lukas nor Zito has a horse in the top 25. With Sunriver, Pletcher has a reasonable chance of being on the bubble.
Bit:
Good point about the long run into the turn for SNS. Statistically driven handicappers will be upset to find out that there hasn\'t been a 9 mark race run at Hawthorne yet this year (more than 20 racing days); guess this might also make it tough for figure makers.
Did not realize that NZ\'s Derby \"program\" had failed that drastically this year.
Richie-
It\'s gotten so bad the Raphael bejerano has jumped ship and he\'s riding Jeremy Rose more often than not lately.
NC Tony
miff Wrote:
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> I only saw this Cause to Believe run once and he
> looked good. Is he fast? Anyone know if he\'s a
> \"real\" horse.
I have seen his two latest races on tape only. He rated comfortably and moved to the rail to run by them all winning the El Camino Real Derby including AP Warrior and Wanna Runner - both next out graded stakes winners.
However, his last was more impressive to me - I beleive it was the California Derby at Golden Gate. It was a paceless five horse field and CTB was approx. 10 lengths off the lone speed. He made an electrifying move around the turn and blew right by the pace horse who was trying to jump the fence with apprentice Martin Garcia on board. The impressive part was him rallying some 15 lengths into a pedistrain pace on a speed favoring GG strip.
Hollendorfer is a very good horseman and trainer. He\'s saddled two Kentucky Oaks winners in Lite Lite and Pike\'s Place Dancer. Eye of the Tiger - whom he entered in the 2003 (I think) Derby for John Gunther ran a very wide and credible fifth under Eibar Coa.
I would think that if CTB wins the Illinois Derby he\'s a legitmate top 5 Derby win candidate.
Having blabbed all this, I have yet to see his thorograph pattern or figures...He has yet to post a BSF over 100