Drf charts say Barbaro wore down his rival in a long drive.I watched the head on and he was drifting out probably a couple of paths in deep stretch,but no mention of it in the charts.
Was it enough to show up as a bo on his sheet and does it raise any red flags?
Big-- didn\'t see it, we\'ll take a look. There is one very good (top professional) TG handicapper who won\'t won\'t bet any horse the time after a BI or BO.
I watched the head-on after the race and thought Barbaro looked fine. I don\'t recall any drifting out to speak of.
I thought he drifted out noticeably. Also looked like he took a bad step inside the 1/16th pole.
Give me the horses that close well over that GP highway as opposed to the ones that stay on the pace.
Anyone remember any KY Derby winners that hit the board in the Florida Derby while running on or near the lead???....I\'ll give you 3 KY Derby winners that closed @ GP.....MONARCHOS,UNBRIDLED,PLESANT COLONY and one that just missed (CAPTAIN BODGIT). Even INVISIBLE INK turned a nice closing effort in the FL Derby into a bomb exacta.
That\'s not to say I would back any horse who closed in the Florida Derby in KY. I\'m simply saying that I would downplay any horse who wins it or runs well in it while with the pace. Just ponder this list:
HARLAN\"S HOLIDAY, HIGH FLY, HAL\'s HOPE, VICAR, HIGH YIELD, UNBRIDLED\'S SONG, HOLY BULL, TECHNOLOGY, FLY SO FREE.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I watched the Gulfstream feed at the track and he wasn\'t maintaining a straight path.Went in a tiny bit at first,and then started going out a couple of paths at the end which I thought was significant.
Taped the USA show and even Stevens mentioned he was a little erratic late,but that he didn\'t think it was a big deal.USA showed a very brief clip of the head on for a couple of jumps.
Hmmmm, you guys are pickier than me then. I thought he looked strong.
jbelfior: Given your theory of closers vs on-the-pace horses in past Florida Derbies, what conclusions did you draw about this year\'s running? I assume you\'re taking a negative view on Barbaro and Sharp Humor. Any catch your eye from a postive view?
Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hmmmm, you guys are pickier than me then. I
> thought he looked strong.
Interesting observation on Barbaro. Didn\'t pick that up during the race, but after some review tend to agree he was experiencing a little \"lateness\" in the stretch. The grinding kinda got a little hard there. Maybe you can excuse it on the first in 8 weeks. The problem is he comes back in 5 weeks now.
Dosage is worthless, but good stout breeding is important. Barbaro qualifies easily on dosage. No problems at all. He\'s DI of 1.81 with a CD of .53
On the Dam side from La Ville Rouge he\'s DI of 2.45 with CD of .82 which is still within the worthless parameters. However, his mare is by Carson City and her Broodmare sire is King\'s Bishop. Tracing it back to the four generational sires on Barbaro\'s mare side is where I find the suspicions. Those four sires are Raise a Native, Blushing Groom, Round Table and Neartic.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/barbaro4
With the exception of Round Table they are \"milers\" and everything from Barbaro\'s mare side flows from them, granting the influence of the females is a factor too.
Did that track help carry him? He\'s undoubtedly talented. Is he talented enough? I\'ll decide after the other preps, but beating that unblemished record is gonna provide a nice return.
CtC
brisnet gave him a 104. the internal ratings were 89, 101, 103. final 1/8 in a shade under :13. i think this guy can go on for another 1/8, it\'s just a matter of class. i\'m on the fence, the TG # will be the deciding factor.
Is that to say never ever ever in any circumstance , how about boxed in exotics ? I\'m going into the KEE online contest and if I win - It\'s Katz\'s for everyone !
One race in thirteen weeks is not enough to win the Derby. He will not be conditioned enough or tough enough to win.
Having said that the light campaign and ability to grass will make him one of the more interesting three year olds, assuming he runs a little more than once every 90 days after the Derby.
He will not be getting any of my money and hopefully plenty of other peoples........
I\'m hoping he gets so much press and everyone bet\'s him . His Pattern really isn\'t that good at all either - Irregardless of how the race might shape up exactly , I don\'t see how TG sheets players could like him to win , but I am relatively new around here ...
Interesting what you say regarding the Pattern. Vito over on the Rags Board said something similar and he appears to be one of the more loyal and intelligent customers of theirs.
Could you please elaborate a little more.
Also I don\'t fault the Trainer for the spacing, he knows his horse and the horse is 5 for 5. Hey tell the Press he is another Smarty Jones.
Silver Charm Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------->
> Also I don\'t fault the Trainer for the spacing, he
> knows his horse and the horse is 5 for 5. Hey tell
> the Press he is another Smarty Jones.
SC,
I agree 100%. Matz has said this is the schedule he has followed all along with the horse and he\'s staying with it. I respect Matz as a horseman and believe he knows whats best for his horse. I\'ll go with that over any theory of how many preps are needed for the Derby.
Bob
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting what you say regarding the Pattern.
> Vito over on the Rags Board said something similar
> and he appears to be one of the more loyal and
> intelligent customers of theirs.
>
> Could you please elaborate a little more.
>
> Also I don\'t fault the Trainer for the spacing, he
> knows his horse and the horse is 5 for 5. Hey tell
> the Press he is another Smarty Jones.
Still waiting to hear what Barbaro ran in the Florida Derby, but I\'m guessing about a Zero. Thats a ways from Smarty Jones, who was moving like a machine in the Rebel. Barbaro was moving like a horse doing the best he could do to get up with a half length victory on a speed favoring trip. Granted he had the Gate blast, but the more I look at it the more it looks like he was handed a gift.
I still think when betting a Derby favorite you want an overpowing horse, not one thats been eeking out victories. He\'s the favorite. He should be winning like a strong favorite. Has he been? In the next dance the quality of the competition goes way up. Has this guy shown enough to let your money ride on him in that regard?
I think theres a few others that look a little better for the distance. Lets wait and see what the final preps say. If they stumble, maybe Barbaro deserves to be favored. For the most part it was an honest gig.
So he if ran a 0 his pattern would be off pair top not the worst pattern. Especially since his off was a 8 length win ridden out.
I\'m just not in love with it . It is difficult to separate 2 yo from 3 yo numbers , pattern and seasons . The 5 career races are part of his current and present campaign .
He did run a top to end his 2 yo year and get over a mile and around 2 turns as a 2 yo to his credit and the trainers credit but with just only 2 races and that\'s got to be pushing a horse along fast .
The 3 yo debut number in my view was an effort and I would liked to have seen a 2 or 3 pt bounce - a real bounce . Then the 3 and change on slop and w/ all the off track breeding , ran what many refer to as a pair was then his best number to date .
I\'m guessing he ran a top saturday in the range of 1+ to 3 pts , so he established a level of performance with his 1st 5 races and assumedly has moved forward off of that , now he bounces next .
I hope Vito\'s right about this and also , he should be using TG numbers to get the very best view when taking patterns into consideration . I know Jerry is right about this stuff more than anyone around that I know of . Derby winner pattern profiles seem to be in a transitory phase these past several years ...
Incidently , talking about patterns and on an unrelated note , at HAW-8- tuesday I\'m liking the number #3 horse Bewitching Miss to win , she\'s a little slow going in but off her pattern I like her chances to improve now at 8-1 .
Bob,
There are lots of trainers that \"know their horses\". What does that have to do with preparing one for the Ky Derby?? Two totally different things
If you want to bet this horse in 5 weeks, I hope you convince a lot of your friends too. He beat a moderate group of horses while pressing the pace over a speed favoring strip. A Derby prep off of an 8 week layoff, then 5 weeks leading up to the Derby?? This horse will not have the conditioning to go 1 1/4 miles against 19 other horses.
Matz has done a nice job with him, don\'t get me wrong. But this looks like your classic big hype, low odds, up the track favorite to me.
P-Dub
P-Dub,
The ability of a trainer to know what schedule gets the best perfrormance out his horse is very relavent.
The so-called \"speed-favoring\" track at GP that day was really more of an ability favoring track where the best horses happened to be horses that like to run near the pace that day won as expected. Look at my pre-race analysis of the FD based on a fair track and you will see the horses ran as expected.
Before the Holy Bull people were saying Barbaro was only a turf horse. Before the Florida Derby people were saying he would not be as effective on a fast dirt track if another horse \"looked him in the eye\". After his impressive victory in the FD, despite his horible post, where he battled and defeated a game Sharp Humor in the stretch people started dowplaying his race becase he may have bore out and an alleged speed bias.
Now the latest knock is his \"lack of conditioning\". He may not win the Derby but if not, one of the horses most likely to beat him, Discreet Cat, is another one that those that cannot properly interpret the statistcs of past results, would be even more likely to throw out. I\'ve already had this discussion here about how the 3+ prep minmum theory for the Derby just doesn\'t hold water in a proper statistcal analysis. Check the archives.
I too love it when people misintepret the data and throw out the likely winners for the wrong reasons.
Bob
P-Dub,
I didn\'t mean to imply that you are one of those that just wants to knock Barbaro no matter what he does. We just have a different interpretation on how good the FL. Derby win was and Matz\'s training methods for the Derby. I respect your opnion though I disagree with it. You are not a petty nit-picker on the horse.
Bob
I cannot fathom this pedigree getting ten furlongs. He is a very nice athelete and now a grade one winner, but not in my Derby superfecta. bbb
No. SUNRIVER may turn out to be a good horse later on, but I don\'t see him as a Derby threat right now.
I think the Santa Anita Derby holds the key this year.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The horse has done everything asked, so far and ran a race on Saturday that only one or two other 3yr olds have shown the ability to run, so far.Why so many knocks? How many horses have won from post 10 this meet at 9f? Anyone know? I don\'t.
I think Brother Derek has many more questions to answer, run without bute, ship, win out of California, get bounced around,get hooked by a real runner and a short price to boot. He looks better this year but got nothing in his one start at Belmont in the BC juv.
Regarding the training method by MATZ, you can go back just about every year and the \"experts\" knock the trainers methods. Remember Smarty Jones working 59 Flat in between races and ahem,an \"expert\" here admonished Servis for doing too much and the horse promply jogged.
It seems Matz knows this horse and is trying to do the right thing.We\'ll see.
Derby Droppings:
BARBARO was good, SHARP HUMOR was game, but they basically separated themselves from the field and staged a two horse speed duel which will not serve as any kind of preparation for a 20 horse cavalry charge. Nothing like a 10 horse Grade 1 where 8 of the entrants don\'t fire at all.
Is TODD PLETCHER this years NICK ZITO? Will he send out 5 runners in the Derby? Will he have the same success as NZ did? Are any of NZ\'s colts Derby worthy this year?
Like BOB BAFFERT or not, he has been a major participant in the Derby/Triple Crown and his opinion has some weight when it comes to 3Y0s. BB has been heaping praise on BRO DEREK throughout the winter, and ships his best prospect, BOB AND JOHN, 3000 miles into the Wood, which in itself comes up pretty tough, to avoid BRO.
If BRO DEREK wins the Santa Anita Derby, as expected, he will be favored and not BARBARO. If BRO DEREK (trainer is in a wheelchair), LAWYER RON (owner drowned in swimming pool) and BARBARO (trainer Matz was Olympian, was heroic survivor in plane crash) all are in Derby, NBC TV will likely have so much human interest coverage of these stories that there will be very little time to analyze the race and the runners. As usual, the network will aim to please the casual racing fan with its coverage, disappointing and ignoring the hard core racing fan.
If BRO DEREK and LAWYER RON dominate their final preps, and 20 show up for the Derby, the favorite could be 9/2 or 5/1.
A great and important weekend of racing, maybe even enough to get me out of the living room and out to Ozone Park on Saturday.
Also this weekend, another spring classic, The Masters. Am looking for a very competitive tournament, as many top players (a distracted Tiger, an inconsistent Sergio, Ernie Els and Vijay Singh not at the top of their games so far in 06) are not playing at their best. IMO the Lefty, Mickelson (who seems to gain 5 lbs every winter) will bounce off a dominant front running win last week in a minor prep. The choice in this corner-- the steady S.African, Retief Goosen.
Bob,
It was speed favoring. You are a classic contrarian.
Bob please show me where any horse closed from the quater pole on in? I watched the entire card replays last night and took notes. Let me see what you came up with. Believe me I try not to bet the way everyone else does myself, but you need to get a grip of reality.
IT WAS A SPEED FAVORING STRIP PERIOD!
NC Tony
The Holy Bull was a tough race on Barbaro.The comment in the chart was all out-lasted.He didn\'t work again for eighteen days(an easy breeze)and didn\'t race again for eight weeks.Matz took a couple of weeks to decide on bypassing the FOY.
The Florida Derby was another tough race on Barbaro(long drive according to the chart)and it\'s likely his TG sheet will indicate he drifted out.
In the case of Barbaro maybe 5 weeks off isn\'t too much time leading up to the Derby.Maybe its not enough.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I cannot fathom this pedigree getting ten
> furlongs. He is a very nice athelete and now a
> grade one winner, but not in my Derby superfecta.
> bbb
Barbaro is by Dynaformer, one of the best stamina stallions in the country. Dynaformer was a winner at 10 and 12 furlongs himself.
Barbaro\'s dam La Ville Rouge (Carson City) won at 9 nine furlongs and closed to finish third in the 11-furlong Long Island Handicap (G2) on the dirt and also closed for third in the Sheepshead Bay Handicap (G2) at 11 furlongs on the turf.
Distance breeding is one of Barbaro\'s strengths!
Lefty needs to wear a sports bra.
great reading here...short and to the point(like me)
seriously,this article really kept my interest.
Big-- we had our trackman look at the headon. He thought Barbaro leaned in on the other horse, then drifted very slightly near the wire, but not enough to get a BO.
Jerry,
When you do the day(GP saturday) please let us know if you found a different variant for sprints and routes(dirt) .It seems that the computer guys had that track playing plus 40 in sprints, (two fifths faster than par) and routes dead on par at 0, all adjusted.
Simply, they had sprints running a couple of lengths better (raw time) than routes, after adjustment.I know that you distinqiush sprints and routes for variant purposes.Thanks.
Mike
Thanks
I thought two paths.Time for me to get the eyes checked out.
Miff-- haven\'t done it yet, but keep in mind that mile races there are 1 turn.
Big,
I saw what Jerry posted also. I think Barbaro was just all out and feeling it. I did not see the real bi/bo that would make TG apply that comment.
A very astute trainer thinks Barbaro either tried to jump a shadow or was greenly trying to change leads when he took that funny step in midstretch.
Yes, I know Jerry. I misspoke, I meant to say one turn vs two turn races which was what the geeks concluded on the split. Were there any mile dirt races that day? I think 4 two turn dirt races but I\'m away from my records, so I might be wrong.
I\'ll take Olazabel. He is playing great right now and is a horse for that course.
No offense taken.
He\'s obviously talented, but he just doesn\'t seem to be a Derby type of horse to me. I think there are better horses out there that have been prepped better or are just plain better. Discreet Cat looks very interesting to me (he would support your angle regarding preps).
Its always fun to throw things around this time of year, but who really thought Giacomo would win last year?? Good luck....
Barbaro is Tapit with a chestnut coat.
Matz is Dickinson without the syringes.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Matz is Dickinson without the syringes.
If Monica Dickinson knew her son was mixing with bad boys she\'d have his trousers down in public and skelp his arse red raw.
Thanks Jerry, that is what I thought I saw too. I kept looking at he video without the benefit of the headon but thought in fact that Prado eased off him once he knew he had it in the bag.
NC Tony
Tony,
I got the same impression from watching the replay of the stretch run. What\'s more, if you notice how they galloped out past the finish line you\'ll see that Sharp Humor had little left compared to Barbaro who seemed to fly away from him as he continued to gallup out strongly.
Bob
Would not put much into the difference in galloping out between the two Bob. Sharp Humor had no two turn races and had every right being tired, on the other hand Barbaro has always been a couple of bends, although he would have to be a complete freak to get ten furlongs next month with that pedigree. Good luck. bbb
BBB SAID
\"Would not put much into the difference in galloping out between the two Bob. Sharp Humor had no two turn races and had every right being tired, on the other hand Barbaro has always been a couple of bends, although he would have to be a complete freak to get ten furlongs next month with that pedigree. Good luck. bbb\"
HELP!!
There have been conflicting views posted here about Barbaros distance breeding.Is he or is he not bred for the DERBY trip. Breeding guys please respond. Thanks.
Miff-- I\'m not done with Fla Derby day yet, but there is no appreciable difference between 1 and 2 turn races on this one. There was, however, wind behind them down the backstretch and on the stretch turn (8 o\'clock wind, about 10 mph), which speeds up the sprints a little, especially the 7 and 7 1/2 f races. Also, your friends may use a slightly different speed chart than we do.
Thanks Jerry,
The wind and your explanation may be the only slight difference. In looking at the raw times of the one turn races, the times seemed fast but there were some fast horses on that card also.
Mike
Miff,
barbaro\'s dam is by carson city, but she ran well going long on turf. she got the stamina from her dam, who likely got it from her sire, kings bishop. KB was a 8-9f horse, but had excellent stamina sources on the bottom of his pedigree. not many carson city pass on the long winded gene, but barbaro\'s dam got it, so he might have it.... if he flattens out in the derby, i think it will be because he simply isn\'t good enough, not because of pedigree.
....
Miff,
Stich has a piece on drf.com regarding the w/e stakes races. It\'s good, take a look.
Thanks Mike,
I\'m a big sprint and wet track fan of Carson City. I remember the dam on the grass going long. It\'s no wonder that Matz said that he thought Barbaro might be a better grass horse.
Lauren Stitch breeding person from DRF wrote that she believes Barbaro\'s breeding, top and bottom, going deep into the families, will be no problem at 10f.
BBB,
I actually don\'t put too much strength in the gallop out. My point was that it was good enough for me to not take too seriously the assertations that he was so spent that he couldn\'t even keep a straight path in the stretch. I think this whole business of him allegedly bearing is being overrblown, especially since Jerry said that his man at the track so no reason to even include the BO in his comment line.
The only time I considered the gallop out was when a poster here, whose name I forget but to whom I\'m very grateful, said that that he was at Oaklawn for one of Lawyer Ron\'s races and he finished so full of run it took the jock the full length of the backstretch to pull him up. I liked him in his next race anyway but that clinched it for me helped me cash a nice win bet on him.
Good luck to you as well,
Bob
Masters:
Could be a Euro year....Darren Clarke or Harrington
Tony,
If debunking some widely believed but ill-founded \"sacred cows\" makes me a contrarian, I\'m guilty as charged.
I will, in any case analyse the days card in more detail. I always can make time to bust a few myths if that\'s where the evidence takes me. I\'ve actually been looking at the issue of biased tracks for some time and would be glad to dicuss it in more detail. But that\'s a topic for another day.
Bob
Bob,
other than race 1 or 2 - if you were not 1-2-3 at the quater pole you were not closing period. Nothing Deep closed. And if you find one, let us all know because that horse has a shot on a fair track next time out.
NC Tony
Bob,
When it comes to racing - it is my opinion that nothing is sacred.You are always puzzled by results. well not always but you come accross it frequently. What we need to be is adaptable and very quick at it. I was really planning to bet on rehoboth for the Fl Derby but choice 2 was Sharp Humor. As the day unfolded I had to drop my sacred cow as the key play and went to Sharp Humor. I still played Rehoboth in tri\'s & supers and exacta\'s wasting money. I should have just keyed Sharp Humor with the obvious candidates.
I have no sacred cows.
What I am saying is that Saturday was a speed favoring track. Don\'t call it a bias if you will, but you have to accept the facts.1-2-3 or nowhere on Saturday.
NC Tony
Tony,
Before you go blaming the track, you might want to check to see if the horses that didn\'t close figured to close in the first place. Now let me go back to watching \"House\"
Bob
Bob,
I did and those that figured to close couldn\'t and of course they didn\'t.
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=73291
How did you like where he found the tick?
NC Tony
Tony,
You are assumming I have a subscription to all the DRF srticles. Another unwarrented assumption. You are probably refering to the article by Steve \"Power of Early Speed\" Klein. No matter, I have the charts for the day and will check them out when I get the chance.
Bob
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob,
>
> I did and those that figured to close couldn\'t and
> of course they didn\'t.
>
>
>
> How did you like where he found the tick?
>
> NC Tony
Tony, it would have taken Silky Sullivan at his very best to make up ground on that track. Many of the legitimate Closing horses were compromised by trouble as well.
Barbaro is a decent horse, but in the Derby he\'s a very tall order at very short odds and may not hit the board. There were a lot on that Gulfstream card that won or nearly won that are toss plays on different surfaces.
If I owned Barbaro, I\'d change plans quickly They should send him for some of the shorter European grass races. I will take him head to head vs. First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat though.
Did TGraph publish a figure for the Florida Derby? I\'m still guessing in about the 0-1 range for the winner and Sunriver running as fast if not faster.
Tony,
I analyzed the card in detail ad here's the race by race break-down of the dirt races.
1st) The early leader faded to 3rd despite being the even-money favorite.
2nd) Early leader faded to 9th. Horse running 2 and 3 early finished 1 and 2, but they were the 2 favorites
3rd) Early leader faded to 10th. Winner closed from 5th to 3rd to 1st.
4th) Winner went wire to wire but was odds-on favorite. 2nd and 3rd place finishers closed from 4th and 8th early though they were 8-1 and 19-1 shots respectively.
6th) Early leader faded to 3rd. 1st and 2nd place finishers were 2nd and 3rd early but were also 2 favorites.
7th) Early leader faded to 5th (last). Winner was 2nd early but was odds-on favorite.
9th) Leader faded to 6th. Winner was 2nd early but the 2nd place horse closed from 6th. The 3rd placed horse closed from 7th to 5th to 3rd despite very wide trip.
11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on. The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.
12th) Best 2 horses in race ran 1-2 (see my pre-race analysis) and happened to do it from the front. 3rd place horse closed from 8th to 5th to 3rd but couldn't catch better horses on lead.
Ergo, no evidence of speed bias. Q.E.D.
Sorry you had to work so hard searching for a non-existent bias when you could have easily had the Florida Derby Exacta cold by seeing the track was playing fair.
Quite frankly I'm puzzled how otherwise rational handicappers can believe that the track surface can magically recognize the hooves of front runners and give them more spring than those of closers. Yes, there is such a thing as a live rail bias and on those days, horses with speed are more likely to beat the others to it, but that's not what most people mean by a speed bias.
Bob
Quite honestly I would Run Barbaro in the Derby then put him in the 5Million Dollar Series on Grass which included 2 Million dollar purses at Colonial and The Secretariate at Arlington and the last one is BC Turf Classic. If you sweep those 4 races you get a supplement of 5Million. Plus it wouldn;t hurt his breeding value either.
NC Tony
Bob
Whatever Bob,
I will revisit your analysis and put my own perspective on your spin.
NC Tony
Bobphilo
I have always felt that track biases were overdone. I\'d be interested in your opinion of split variants. Except under very unusual cirumstances, I can\'t see any justification for it.
I once e-mailed Steven Crist about this. He said it was due to possible wind conditions and uneven track maintenence. I don\'t accept this explanation (except possibly under EXTREME wind conditons).
I think the real reason is,as time goes on, a $10,000 animal, e.g., is something inferior to what it used to be (because dollars get closer to confetti all the time). And the further horses run, the more apparent this becomes.
What do you think?
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob
>
> Whatever Bob,
>
> I will revisit your analysis and put my own
> perspective on your spin.
Tony,
Feel free to evaluate my analysis and put your spin on my perspective. LOL
By the way, it might interest you to know that Steve Klein analyzed the card and found a slight speed bias but not enough to have effected the results. And he didn\'t even take into account the abilities of the horses involved.
Bob
Bally Ache,
Thanks for your support on the speed bias issue.
I do believe that the track speed can change during the course of the day, making it necessary to split the variant. Check out out Jerry\'s presentation on changing track speed on this site. The position is strongly supported by solid scientific evedence. Let me know what you think after reading the presentation. Judging from your understanding of the speed bias issue, I suspect you will have an open mind on variant splitting as well. Let me know what you think.
Good luck,
Bob
Haskin from the Bloodhorse: \"And this was a notoriously speed-favoring track, which certainly had to help the top two.\"
I\'m having trouble accessing it (because I\'m an idiot when it comes to computers), and I have to go out now, so I\'ll try again later.
But a point of clariification - I concede that variants can change but it\'s a rare day when the DRF doesn\'t have split variants. That\'s what I don\'t understand.
Quite honestly Bob I sent a link for the Mike Watchmaker (and I\'m not a big Watchmaker fan). article and not Steve Klein for what it\'s worth. It was in refference to 5 week preps before the Derby.
NC Tony
Thanks Michael D for your support!!
Going to Kee any this year?
NC Tony
bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tony,
>
> I analyzed the card in detail ad here's the race
> by race break-down of the dirt races.
> 1st) The early leader faded to 3rd despite being
> the even-money favorite.
Don\'t forget that the top three went 1-2-3 around the track, but for positional changes and a 30-1 with speed was dead game for second beaten a length
>
> 2nd) Early leader faded to 9th. Horse running 2
> and 3 early finished 1 and 2, but they were the
> 2 favorites
Don\'t forget the 3rd place horse at 37-1 that was only two lengths off on the early calls and found a way to make the Tri Pay. But yes, the 1st and 2nd horses race pace races as well. The second place horse from outside and 3 wide.
>
> 3rd) Early leader faded to 10th. Winner closed
> from 5th to 3rd to 1st.
Lets not forget the second place pace horse at 25-1 beaten a mere length from the 12 hole.
>
> 4th) Winner went wire to wire but was odds-on
> favorite. 2nd and 3rd place finishers closed from
> 4th and 8th early though they were 8-1 and 19-1
> shots respectively.
>
To say the second place horse \"Closed\" is a monumental stretch. He was never further than a length and a fraction back. Did you do this analyis on lengths and posts and wide or simply change in positions?....lol
Notice you neglected the 5th 1-2-3 around the track. Granted the chalk checked in first and second. Solid Chalk it was.
I\"m sorry but i\'m bored with this endeavor, other than to say theres a lot more to figuring a track than looking at positional changes, but this one is easy. Gulfstream is a speed track. It was a speed track before \"renovation\" and its a wackier speed track now. It favored horses on the front end last year. High Limit, Bellamy Road and others. Its favoring horses on the front again this year, including Vinnie Barbarino. But this was high school. Its college time and if you think Barbarino has the stuff to graduate, step on up to the window and don\'t be shy.
You Chuckles you do know that it\'s ok to disagree with somebody without being insulting.
>Chuckles_the_Clown2 stated.
>I\"m sorry but i\'m bored with this endeavor, other than to say theres a lot more to figuring a track than looking at positional changes, but this one is easy. Gulfstream is a speed track. It was a speed track before \"renovation\" and its a wackier speed track now. It favored horses on the front end last year. High Limit, Bellamy Road and others. Its favoring horses on the front again this year, including Vinnie Barbarino. But this was high school. Its college time and if you think Barbarino has the stuff to graduate, step on up to the window and don\'t be shy.
Oh, OK. Since I\'m not a subscriber and couldn\'t see the article, I thought it was more likely to be the one on the GP speed bias since that was what you were refering to in the post.
Bob
bobphilo Wrote:
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> Tony,
>
> I analyzed the card in detail ad here's the race
> by race break-down of the dirt races.
> 1st) The early leader faded to 3rd despite being
> the even-money favorite.
>
> 2nd) Early leader faded to 9th. Horse running 2
> and 3 early finished 1 and 2, but they were the
> 2 favorites
>
> 3rd) Early leader faded to 10th. Winner closed
> from 5th to 3rd to 1st.
>
> 4th) Winner went wire to wire but was odds-on
> favorite. 2nd and 3rd place finishers closed from
> 4th and 8th early though they were 8-1 and 19-1
> shots respectively.
>
> 6th) Early leader faded to 3rd. 1st and 2nd place
> finishers were 2nd and 3rd early but were also 2
> favorites.
>
> 7th) Early leader faded to 5th (last). Winner was
> 2nd early but was odds-on favorite.
>
> 9th) Leader faded to 6th. Winner was 2nd early but
> the 2nd place horse closed from 6th. The 3rd
> placed horse closed from 7th to 5th to 3rd despite
> very wide trip.
>
> 11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on.
> The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and
> 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.
>
> 12th) Best 2 horses in race ran 1-2 (see my
> pre-race analysis) and happened to do it from the
> front. 3rd place horse closed from 8th to 5th to
> 3rd but couldn't catch better horses on lead.
>
> Ergo, no evidence of speed bias. Q.E.D.
>
> Sorry you had to work so hard searching for a
> non-existent bias when you could have easily had
> the Florida Derby Exacta cold by seeing the track
> was playing fair.
>
> Quite frankly I'm puzzled how otherwise rational
> handicappers can believe that the track surface
> can magically recognize the hooves of front
> runners and give them more spring than those of
> closers. Yes, there is such a thing as a live rail
> bias and on those days, horses with speed are more
> likely to beat the others to it, but that's not
> what most people mean by a speed bias.
>
> Bob
>
>
Dear Bob,
I chose Race 11 to re watch and also re read the DRF/Equibase Charts.
11th) Bandini went wire to wire but was odds-on.
> The 2nd and 3rd placed horses closed from 4th and
> 6th at 37-1 and 38-1 respectively.
Now here\'s what really happened: The second place horse sat right behind Bandini the entire race. Oconnell the 4 horse broke with the leaders and just sat off them the whole race and right next to the 1. Who\'s Crying Now (#7) went out of his element and tried to force the pace as he usually is a deep closer. He changed his running stle because No One had closed a lick up till that point. Contante another Deep closer here is the DRF Comment: Taken back early, moved up racing down the back stretch, made a run three wide to loom a threat and faltered down the stretch. Now a Horse you may want to watch next time out is Noble Causeway as he did make up lots of ground deep stretch but was too far out of it.
Now my point has always been that no horse could close down the stretch on that day. If a certified deep closer like Contante couldn\'t do it, something was not playing right that day. It played to early speed the entire day.While it may have been more of an inside bias vs speed I\'m not as qualified as you. I am certainly not as qualified as Jerry.
My last point on the issue.
Oh- I also see that Classhandicapper takes your point of view on your board.
Enough Said!!
NC Tony
I didn\'t insult anyone. I\'m calling the horse Barbarino. Have to say after going over the track bias analysis I felt I was in Kotter\'s classroom though.
Bottom line is I don\'t like his pattern. I don\'t see another forward move off that stretch run. I don\'t like his breeding. I don\'t like his pace style for the Derby. I don\'t like the bias he\'s caught to win and I suspect he\'s gonna ouch, if he\'s not ouching already. They need to run him in Turf miles.
must not be a very active blog what with him spending so much time over here.
are you unemployed like c.h.? hope you do as well w/ponies and pool like him.
honest to g-d,I went back in time on this list to see if your presence just happened to co-inside w/c.h.s\' departure.
ctmc:
could you be a little more specific!!
some of folks might find you abrasive,but no one can say you r sitting on a fence w/barbarino
Gee Chuckles, I\'m so heart-broken to be boring you.
My point was that there are a number of reasons that GP was not speed favoring that day. And yes, improvement of position is one definition of closing. Being able to catch and pass a horse or horses in front of you means the so-called speed bias didn\'t exactly hurt the horse in question. That happened several times that day.
This whole dogma about speed favoring tracks is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy than an accurate description of the racing surface. If the jocks believe it, most will try to be forwardly placed early. That means that horses racing off the pace are back there because they are slow rather than being rated. Slow horses tend to lose races, further perpetuating the myth that it has something to do with the track surface. There is just no explanation that makes sense that a track surface somehow reacts differently to the hooves of frontrunners and closers. Think about it.
I may or not bet Barbaro in the Derby but I'm certainly not going to downgrade his FL. Derby performance on the basis of some dubious speed bias.
Bob
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> Oh- I also see that Classhandicapper takes your
> point of view on your board.
>
> Enough Said!!
>
> NC Tony
Tony,
Now you\'re stooping to half-truths. CH disagrees with me on the issue of speed biased tracks - he believes they are an important factor to him and I consider them mostly a myth. You have a strange definition of agreement. The only thing he agrees with me on is that it was not a significant factor on Fl Derby Day, as does Steve Klein. The next time you use my board to misquote anyone, you\'re banned.
Bob
Davidrex
The surest sign that an idiot is losing an argument is when he begins resorting to personal attacks and insults. Your moronic remarks aren\'t even worth a response.
Bob-
This is the Thorograph Board not yours.
Please - Please Please BAN ME FROM YOUR BOARD NOW !!!
NC Tony
Tony,
Request granted with EXTREME PLEASURE. You\'re gone.
Bob
big18741 Wrote:
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> Lefty needs to wear a sports bra.
What do you have against scottsmen with puffy man boobs? Mine are twice as big as Colin Monty\'s and that\'s quite a pair! Mine even get in the way of lifting the fork to my face but I can pick a weiner once in a blue moon...
Couples gets the money.
Bob,
You really need to relax.
You spend so much time with various discussions ( I honestly don\'t see how you have much time for anything else), THAT YOU SEEM TO TAKE THESE THINGS VERY PERSONALLY.
Some very knowledgeable people have shown you that a speed favoring strip existed last week, and you still argue. You get so hurt when people do this. Its like someone kicked your dog. Because some DRF guy agrees with you, that means you\'re correct?? Please.
A lot of us are getting tired of reading your stuff. You post NON-STOP about everything!!!!!! You respond to EVERY reply to your posts with yet another redundant post. Your TG-Timeform-Beyer post was the coup de grace. Unbelieveable and served no purpose, other than to show that you really have too much time on your hands.
Your entitled to your views, but if you have a forum at Yahoo then keep this kind of thing over there where you can have happy talk with those smart enough to agree with you. Wading through this board with bobphilo posts everywhere makes it difficult to find posts worth reading. Just stop already.
P-Dub,
For crying out loud, this whole track bias thread is long over. Give it a rest.
Jerry told everyone to cut it out and everyone but you listened.
All I was doing was trying to argue my position respectfully when certain parties decided to get angry and throw in some personal attacks. Yes, I take being insulted personally, especially if it's just because someone disagrees with me.
I posted my speed conversions because some members on the board here requested them.
If you don't like them, fine, don't use them.
You're telling me to relax when you yourself need to learn to be able to disagree with someone like an adult without insulting them. OK, if that's the way you want it, if my posts are over your head I won't waste them on you.
Do everyone a favor and chill out.
Bob
enough bob,please.
Well said David.
Bob,
I responded before TGJB told us all to stop. I\'m done with it. Play some Marley and take a rip, maybe that will work.