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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on March 25, 2006, 02:28:35 PM

Title: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Silver Charm on March 25, 2006, 02:28:35 PM
You bet.......Special Interest just earned his way in Wayne.

His ticket for Louisville is officially punched.
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Michael D. on March 25, 2006, 02:34:50 PM
i was just about to send a post aimed at you SC

out of an alydar mare, second dam a grade one turf winner in europe ...

not on my list yet, but why not?
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on March 25, 2006, 04:26:55 PM
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You bet.......Special Interest just earned his way
> in Wayne.
>
> His ticket for Louisville is officially punched.

Guess thats 10,002 horses with a Derby Chance.

Seriously, do they plan on training him up to the Derby or are they going to think about trying to get him some Graded Stakes money just in case thats the determining factor to get a spot in the field?

Many believe this is a wide open year and that should encourage Connections to take a shot and that may leave some out of the field looking in. High Cotton is not a bad horse, but not sure finishing second to him is enough to make the Derby.


Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Silver Charm on March 25, 2006, 04:59:55 PM
He might need one more run and then again he might not. Did you see how wide he was today. He showed he doesn\'t need much work.

Clearly would have won the Lanes End if he had gotten in which was their initial intended spot. And if they are concerned about the earnings issue they have several options includung the Forerunner on grass.

The Lukas pedigree was everwhere today winning both Stakes races at Turfway and figures to only get stronger as the Derby gets closer. Pletcher, McKlaughin, Maker, Stewart and the King himself. They are all in with a shot.

The rest of these guys are fading fast. Baffert is down to maybe one runner after starting out at Del Mar with about 50 $$$$Million babies. And what about Nick Zero. Looks like he\'s got nothing.

If Giacomo can win anybody can win, but only if you are entered.
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on March 25, 2006, 06:06:08 PM
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He might need one more run and then again he might
> not. Did you see how wide he was today. He showed
> he doesn\'t need much work.

It was a nice run. Still haven\'t looked at the card times. Normally a 1.45 at 8.5 doesnt mean much, but maybe the track was slow.
 
>
> Clearly would have won the Lanes End if he had
> gotten in which was their initial intended spot.
> And if they are concerned about the earnings issue
> they have several options includung the Forerunner
> on grass.

Agree the Lane\'s End was about a joke. Laity got lots of hype but never has been much horse. Further evidence that other than a couple that have been dancing all along theres not a whole lot out there and the Derby might be a great opportunity.

I\'m fairly high on Sweetnorthernsaint. He\'s only got 20K in graded earnings and needs a big pop in the next race. Thats probably why they are leaning Illinois Derby. He could run a good Wood, finish 3rd and miss the big dance.
 
> The Lukas pedigree was everwhere today winning
> both Stakes races at Turfway and figures to only
> get stronger as the Derby gets closer. Pletcher,
> McKlaughin, Maker, Stewart and the King himself.
> They are all in with a shot.
>
> The rest of these guys are fading fast. Baffert is
> down to maybe one runner after starting out at Del
> Mar with about 50 $$$$Million babies. And what
> about Nick Zero.

Nick is having a down year it looks. Superfly? He aint the one, but don\'t count out the greatest trainer to ever look through a pair of sunglasses before the Santa Anita Derby. He\'s still got Bouncing Bob and John and Point Determined, who could make large progress here in.
>
> If Giacomo can win anybody can win, but only if
> you are entered.

Giacomo wasn\'t 50-1 for nothing. Strange things can happen in the Derby, but tend to agree that was a real strange one.


Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: bellsbendboy on March 25, 2006, 07:59:42 PM
Calling Lukas the \"king\" is a bit of a stretch.  He has never put any of his horses welfare in front of his ego. I would think dinosaur would be a better title. He works his horses as fast and as far as they go, often coming home in over 26 seconds. Last I looked he was 3 for 62 at santa anita and 2 for 39 at Oaklawn. He stopped training a while back. BBB
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Silver Charm on March 25, 2006, 09:09:42 PM
When Arnold Palmer shows up on the first tee, He\'s known as the King. When Mohammed Ali shows up anywhere, he\'s known as the Greatest. You dominate like these men have, both in your court and with personality, and like Wayne Lukas has, nobody remembers the last fight, the last round at Augusta or the last horse you saddled.

13+ Triple Crown winners, 15+ Breeders Cup winners, dozens of Earning Titles and a handful of Eclipse Awards give you the right to show up anywhere, anytime and be respected.

You\'ve earned it whether some people like it or not.......
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: STB on March 25, 2006, 10:16:18 PM
Do you deserve to be respected when you run Deeds Not Words in the Derby, just to say you were there?

He dominated with personality, all right. The force of his personality pretty much sealed his deal. Maybe I don\'t know my ass from a hole in the ground, especially here three sheets to the wind in the middle of the night, trying (unsuccessfully, of course) to drink away a death in the family, but my mind\'s eye sees D Wayne Lukas as just another in the long line of Great American Salesmen.

He won a lot of races, but how many hundreds of millions of dollars of horseflesh did he have to run through the meat grinder to get those wins? Sacrifical lambs such as Union City start to run through the mind, like some sort of perverse racing version of the last scene from my favorite seventh-grade book, \"Good Bye, Mr. Chips.\"

How many other trainers could have done as much, if not more, if they\'d had the same talent pool to work with?

Of course, that\'s a moot point. They didn\'t have the same talent pool to work with. Lukas got that talent, and he got the glory, because he was and perhaps, still is, a master salesman. Since the early 1980\'s he\'s been selling an idea to people with more money than they know what to do with, and he\'s found enough takers to keep himself in the clover and in the limelight.

But me, I\'m not buying the idea that he\'s the equine version of Palmer or Ali.  
Title: Lukas and Dubai Red Board
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on March 26, 2006, 03:17:53 AM
STB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Do you deserve to be respected when you run Deeds
> Not Words in the Derby, just to say you were
> there?
>
> He dominated with personality, all right. The
> force of his personality pretty much sealed his
> deal. Maybe I don\'t know my ass from a hole in the
> ground, especially here three sheets to the wind
> in the middle of the night, trying
> (unsuccessfully, of course) to drink away a death
> in the family, but my mind\'s eye sees D Wayne
> Lukas as just another in the long line of Great
> American Salesmen.
>
> He won a lot of races, but how many hundreds of
> millions of dollars of horseflesh did he have to
> run through the meat grinder to get those wins?
> Sacrifical lambs such as Union City start to run
> through the mind, like some sort of perverse
> racing version of the last scene from my favorite
> seventh-grade book, \"Good Bye, Mr. Chips.\"
>
> How many other trainers could have done as much,
> if not more, if they\'d had the same talent pool to
> work with?
>
> Of course, that\'s a moot point. They didn\'t have
> the same talent pool to work with. Lukas got that
> talent, and he got the glory, because he was and
> perhaps, still is, a master salesman. Since the
> early 1980\'s he\'s been selling an idea to people
> with more money than they know what to do with,
> and he\'s found enough takers to keep himself in
> the clover and in the limelight.
>
> But me, I\'m not buying the idea that he\'s the
> equine version of Palmer or Ali.

Condolences

He had huge pools of expensive, well bred, raw horseflesh and he certainly did grind them up. To my eye, his failure was never knowing when to stop on a horse with an issue. He just never developed the empathy and horse sense that many of the top horsemen have. It could be as simple as \"It didn\'t matter\" to him. Theres always more on the bench and new recruits next year. Better perhaps, in his mind, to get all you could out of them presently, use them up and fire with the new recruits when those with talent in the current crop have gone bad.

They are fragile beasts after all and my sense is that fragility never really mattered to him. You get the sense he doesn\'t really care for the animals. Maybe it has something to do with the best one he ever had essentially vegatizing his son. He showed that S.O.B. though, broke him down too. Actually, he was hard on them even before that incident.

Remember Cat Thief? Marveled at how many seasons he got out of that one. Horse must have been made of Iron.

Use to fault him for not being able to pick a horse at the sales. He burned millions on valueless horses. Silver is right though, now Baffert has the big clients and is burning the Millions too. Moral of that story, \"Don\'t spend millions on untrained horses.\"

Whatever edge he had was more than numbers though. There was a time when his horses ran faster. That edge is gone. I have my views on that, but will leave it to others to contemplate why his horses were faster then, but generally slower now.

Dang, no red board for the Dubai Cup. Oh well, beggars can\'t be choosers.


Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: cubfan0316 on March 26, 2006, 06:11:11 AM
trainer is using the term loosely, how much different can you train? good trainer good drugs, its all a phar. issue.
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: big18741 on March 26, 2006, 06:11:46 AM
His maiden still has 0 Graded stakes dollars.No tickets punched to Louisville unless he gets in that top 20 dollarwise.

Right now there are probably close to 40(I\'m guessing here) on the list with Graded stakes cash,and you know these pigs will all want their horses in the gate on Derby Day even if they are hopeless.

By the time they take entries you\'re gonna need at least 100k and probably more to be 20th on the list.


Forerunner winner only picks up 60k-Lukas probably needs to go in the Lexington to pick up needed dollars.

Graded winnings is a real issue now.A lot of these trainers burn their horse out getting them in the last prep just so they can make the Derby.
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: miff on March 26, 2006, 07:28:56 AM
For all Lukas knockers. Ever heard of Pletcher, Henning,Stewart, Mc Laughlin and a few others who learned from him. The guy is much more a \"consultant\" now and many other trainers had a shot with alot of pricey horses and didn\'t do well either.

Right now, he\'s rich and should stay under the radar unless he has a real good one. He does tend to make a fool of himself a little, nowdays.
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: bobphilo on March 26, 2006, 07:57:49 AM
Perhaps his greatest legacy will be the horsemen he trained. He is a knowledgeable horseman, but that only compounds his mistreatment of his charges. It's not like he's some bozo that doesn't realize what he's doing.

In all fairness, he does run clean and is outspoken against juicers. Unfortunately he is also outspoken against raising jockeys weight allowances to something reasonable for modern humans. He said that jockeys are all a "bunch of crybabies that drive to work in Mercedes" and that it would be an undue burden on the horses. Sounds a bit hypocritical, considering the source. Don't you think?

Bob  
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Silver Charm on March 26, 2006, 12:34:20 PM
>Perhaps his greatest legacy will be the horsemen he trained.

His second greatest legacy.

Golfer Frank Beard once produced a book written by the late Dick Schapp where he stated that for every $ he earned he felt he owed 10% of it to Arnold Palmer. Palmer made Golf into a TV sport with his swashbuckling style and smiling charisma. Hence the purses shot up and the reasoning behind Beards stance.

When the Breeders cup arrived Lukas who was the real \"Superpower\" of racing split the entire focus of his operation between the Triple Crown events and the Breeders Cup. He gave the event instant credibility, does the same on Ky Cup Day and others. With his far flung operation of days gone by he pretty much sent the message you put on a big race with a big purse and we will be there. Big money races with good fields are now everywhere.

Baffert, Zito and all the rest of these guys should feel the same way Beard did. The big money purses they compete for, the plethera of big Breeders Cup type days are successful because the guy with the biggest barn and the most clout made sure it worked well before they came along.

A simple 5% is probably fair.......
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: bellsbendboy on March 26, 2006, 01:45:05 PM
He is still a dinosaur and an almost automatic elimination whenever he runs anything. I will always remember him for spending the most money and breaking down one after another. He may be your hero but he will run something if there is a camera around. BBB
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: cubfan0316 on March 26, 2006, 04:29:56 PM
explain what d. wayne could poss. have learned recently that would make him a better trainer?he and all the others been training for years so how could all of a sudden their horses are running better? let me tell you,>>>>>>> DRUGS. pretty simple..
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on March 26, 2006, 05:35:08 PM
cubfan0316 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> explain what d. wayne could poss. have learned
> recently that would make him a better trainer?he
> and all the others been training for years so how
> could all of a sudden their horses are running
> better? let me tell
> you,>>>>>>> DRUGS. pretty
> simple..

Lots of truth to the above, which makes one ask was Lukas onto the \"tonic\" between about 1985-1995 or so until other trainers found a better elixer?

My unscientific belief is that it took better breeding to come up with an elite horse in the past. But today, good breeding is far less important with the tonic remedies. Lukas can still win when he gets a well bred horse. Azeri for example, but it takes a standout now with all the Jump-Up trainers and their special tonics. Azeri getting the eclipse nod over Sightseek is another matter entirely.

Which brings me to the Lukas records. You can\'t take away his B.C. winners and Triple Crown winners. They were all legit. Add them up and he may have the best statistics ever. I\'m not sure about that. Jimmy Jones won a lot of big races and so did Sunny Fitz. They obviously had much higher batting averages, but Lukas clearly was a numbers cruncher.

But the eclipse winners are something else entirely. Many times a Lukas horse has gotten the nod from the writers and voters and when you look at the data and past performances all you can do is scratch your head until you realize he conned the press too. He\'s just got the golden touch with influencing  people.

If you had a top flight horse would you bring it to him? He might win an eclipse for you with an inferior record. Then again, he might also break that horse down the first day of training. I think I have at least 20 horsmen I\'d bring my horse to before Lukas, but I know the game. He rubbed shoulders with the wealthy and they bought into his sales pitch.



 
Title: Re: A Maiden in the Derby
Post by: richiebee on March 26, 2006, 07:28:10 PM
Note in the DRF that Thoroughbred Hall of Fame trainer DWL will be inducted into the Quarter Horse Hall of Fame in 2007. He will become the only individual to be inducted into both of these halls.

I think its fair to point out that DWL has placed some of his horses imprudently, with tragic results.

I think its fair to point out that most of his success has come with 2YOs and 3YOs, and that he has sometimes not listened to an animal who was telling him \"enough\" (ie Lady\'s Secret).

I think its fair to point out that DWL has never trained many top notch turf runners (there was Steinlein).

I think its fair to point out that DWL\'s breakthrough major client, Eugene Klein, probably lost money in racing despite all of his major stake wins with DWL.

DWL has been a shameless self promoter since he arrived on the scene. As Silver Charm points out, however, he has been promoting the sport of Thoroughbred racing at the same time.

Personally, when I think of DWL, I think of the voice inside of me which tells me not to take his horses lightly in big events, no matter what the price... Commendable, Charismatic, Cat Thief, etc.

The one DWL runner I will never forget made her debut in a NJ bred maiden race in August 88 at Monmouth Park. At nearly 11/1 her pedigree stood out in this J Bred race--she was by Deputy Minister out of a Stage Door Johnny mare-- and she was the easiest kind of winner. My memory is unclear, she may have run against J bred colts in this race, because there was no way a Lukas filly with this kind of pedigree should have been 11/1, but I remember betting all I had plus whatever I could borrow.

Open Mind went on to become 2YO and 3YO champion filly.