My buddy & I are looking at Judges Case
and asking how he could be 27-1 (at the time)
in this field and since we both knew the horse well seeing him run in NY several times, we started to try & poke holes in him
as to why he was such a big price.
We convinced ourselves that Araya wasn\'t as good as Iwinski (recent claim) so he wouldn\'t likely fire his A race. We looked at each other after the race and came to the conclusion that at 30-1 we should have played him even if he was training himself. Ugh !
Nunzio
Actually a great illustration of an axiom: The public ALWAYS overbets the last race. Judge\'s Case ran an uncharacteristically bad race last out and everybody tossed him. HP
And of a second \"axiom\"--bad efforts when shipping (in this case to MTH) or first time over a track shouldn\'t always be taken seriously when they are out of line with the horse\'s history.
Jerry,
Yes, you are correct. That thought crossed my mind. AND not only that, he was checked pretty severely in that MTH race &
lost all chance. Geez, I feel like a
real idiot now. Thanks for driving this point home, I will remeber this scenario
next time for sure. 30-1 should always
lead to giving the benfit of the doubt,
at least as a saver !
Did you play him ?
Nunzio
I made a $10, 4 horse tri box that ran 1-2-4-5, and keyed Wild Summer in exactas with the other 3.