Really nice ROTW selection this week. Too many St. Paddy\'s drinks to comment yet. Theres the top three but a couple of the others dont look half bad on Tfigs.
Interesting Race
You can\'t help but notice the abundance of Early Speed in the race. Early Speed generally plays well at Aqueduct, but this race is loaded with it. Additionally, the track did seem to play fairly Friday.
Who wants the lead?
Keyed Entry?
One Way Flight?
Sweet Northern Saint?
Like Now?
Achilles of Troy?
Hesanoldsalt - Probably didn\'t handle Tampa, but also faced better horses there. Trained well at Gulfstream, so Zito decided to ship him to a new track and run him unworked there against the best horses he\'s faced yet. Does that make sense to anybody?
Church Service - Has the right running style for this race and that may get him closer than he looks on Speed. He\'s also run a little better on Dirt than Turf and he ran his best Turf race last, so have to expect a better Dirt effort now. He\'s got an improving horses chance to catch the remote exotics, especially if there is a pace melt down.
Eagle Head - Like the last race, but don\'t like him getting caught late and stretching to turn turns on a new track off it.
Like Now - Whats not to like? Other than the fact he runs on the lead and theres very quick horses here. Like the TFigs, like the trainer, like the consistency, like him on the track, like his breeding to stretch to this distance. Just don\'t like the pace scenario he finds himself in. Still will include him beyond 2nd.
Putonyerdancinshuz - Figs say he can\'t win. However, heres another horse that doesn\'t get discouraged running from behind, trained by a high percentage trainer. You can\'t bet them all and I\'m probably gonna let this one beat me, but I\'m very scared of him.
Achilles of Troy - They say hes got a new trainer. Not sure if thats true or not. He likes the track. He has shown an ability to run a paced race and in this race that appears to be important. He\'s been an exceptional horse since adding Lasix. He\'s obviously very dangerous and who the public favors between him and Keyed Entry is your guess. They may favor Pletcher.
Keyed Entry - Gulfstream was very freaky Hutchenson day. 1st Samurai is also a good horse, but he\'s not that good. Sense is that Keyed Entry, despite the two turns, may indeed have a Speed Pop chance here. But have to conclude the questions from that race, the plethora of speed and the two turns would make him a public choice to buck.
Sunshine Alpine - If you like \"Like Now\" you have to like this horse.
Greeley\'s Legacy - Weight Off, Likes the strip, likes the distance, the White Mercedes factor. What to do?
Sweetnorthernsaint - Has been handled in an \"interesting\" manner, but the trainer is on fire and won\'t quibble. Worst thing you can say is they put Desormeaux up. Anyone else notice the split DRF variant from January 7th?
One Way Flight - Well Channing Hill did WIN 3 races yesterday. I really liked this horse for the exotics but am distraught over Hill being up in this race with this hole. What are they thinking?
A question about Keyed Entry. You show a pattern of Top-Top-Top. Why would a race that occurs over 6 months before the next race be a part of a pattern? Also it was his first which automatically make it a new top. Now SUNSHINE ALPINE shows the same pattern but with him it makes sense since their is no major break between races.
Chuckles...you forgot the Overview.
I\'m waiting for the odds.
Pletcher has to be respected and if he\'s second choice there may be some minimal edge in playing him.
Achilles of Troy does have a slight pace advantage.
I also believe Sweetnorthernsaint is faster than hes shown.
I was going to put those three on top of One Way Flight in Perfectas but with Hill up I\'m not sure. It will depend upon odds.
This is a competitive race. I wont red board though, will chime in pre race if I make a selection
Poster JohnTChance has many times called the White Mercedes connection post race and here we have it. The more I look at Greeley\'s the better that last race looks. Mercedes also appears to have Keyed Entry and One Way Flight.
Ctc:
According to NYRA website One Way Flight is SCRATCHED.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc:
>
> According to NYRA website One Way Flight is
> SCRATCHED.
thx, that outside post was a tough assignment.
Little less speed now, that was a quick horse.
Theres still speed, but the field lacks the proven closer you look for in a race like that.
Hesanoldsalt, Greeley\'s legacy, and Putyerdancinshuzon all have big ?
The only colt in here I see moving to the next round of the \"tournament\" is Pletcher\'s Keyed Entry. I think both Achilles and Greeley can run well today, but will progress no further after the magic carpet -- the inner dirt-- is yanked out from underneath them.
I disagree with the possibility of a KE speed pop. KE has broken slowly in 2 of his 3 races, and think Prado will try to restrain KE off the early pace of Like Now and Sweet Northern Saint. How KE reacts to rating tactics if this is the case will be interesting to see.
Would have to think KE and Achilles are very close in the wagering.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The only colt in here I see moving to the next
> round of the \"tournament\" is Pletcher\'s Keyed
> Entry. I think both Achilles and Greeley can run
> well today, but will progress no further after the
> magic carpet -- the inner dirt-- is yanked out
> from underneath them.
>
> I disagree with the possibility of a KE speed pop.
> KE has broken slowly in 2 of his 3 races, and
> think Prado will try to restrain KE off the early
> pace of Like Now and Sweet Northern Saint. How KE
> reacts to rating tactics if this is the case will
> be interesting to see.
>
> Would have to think KE and Achilles are very close
> in the wagering.
Respect your opinion. I\'m not certain who will move on from here and who won\'t. The challenge for me today is to get into sniffing range on this race.
I\'m not sure I share your sentiments about Keyed Entry\'s likely pace scenario. His past performances say July precocious and on the lead at every call at 3. I\'ll be very surprised if they don\'t attempt to use that speed to position for the first turn. If he\'s not right on the lead, right off, I\'d be very worried if I was holding tickets on him. His preferred running style is clear. Theres also some suspicion regarding his soundness. Its a long way from July to January to pass early developing races with a Honor and Glory.
If on the other hand this is Pletcher\'s best Derby hopeful, (and i have no knowledge of that), they may try to play pace altering games with him today. I like his backside breeding. It goes a long way to cover some of the frontside holes. Then theres the White Mercedes issue.
Sweetnorthernsaint is a nicely bred horse and he is quick. I certainly can\'t rule him out of the tourney pre race. Truth is I\'m beginning to favor him. He\'s not let a horse in front of him since the Turf start. I\'m not sure he can outpace Keyed Entry though and Achilles of Troy should be in a spot to make a run on the pace setters.
Its a dilly.
Well, minor play with SNS gonna have Hesold and Greeleys in second too. We\'ll learn a lot from this race.
a few thoughts ....
i wasn\'t smart enough to come up with this one. as TGJB pointed out, LN had some distance breeding on both sides, but you had to predict that he would break loose on a comfortable lead - too tough for me.
johnny velazquez off is a killer angle. i don\'t care who the replacement is.
SNS ran great under tough circumstances. he has a big heart.
Didn\'t foresee Like Now getting that kind of pace deferral. Things happen and I wasn\'t going to win anyway.
Richie was correct. They did minimally \"rate\" Keyed Entry. Probably rated him right out of the winners circle. As far as him going on, we\'ll see. There were no bona fide one run horses in there.
Thought SNS ran a useful race too. Not a bad effort.
Maybe they need to hire Pederson back.
Not surprised that KE was not asked for early speed, but a burst of tactical speed would have been nice to get a little closer to the winner on the backstretch.
Like Now is not nominated for Triple Crown. Keyed Entry showed another dimension and added to his graded earnings. Sweet Northern Saint seemed to run hard and wide throughout and may have had more left at the end than the top 2 finishers.
According to Equibase, Achilles was vanned off. The fallout from this should be interesting...
Owner said Achilles grabbed a quarter pretty bad out of the gate, we will see if it is true.
I thought something was wrong with Acilles.
Like Now figured to be the one to pick up the pieces if the top 3 faltered. He got a dream trip with an easy lead on the rail with Keyed Entry 2 wide on both turns and Sweetnorthernsaint 3 wide both turns and Achilles fizzling. Best race by far was SNS. KE picked up some respect too.
Bob
I\'m Guessing Keyed Entry backed up a little bit on the negative number - his action when running seemed dull , though he was trying . The Gothem looked like an inner track race w/ the horse on the lead at the first point of call win\'s . Shame about Achilles of Troy , I\'m seeing his pattern now with 20/20 hindsight ...
tmon,
I would suggest a refresher course on the pattern stats. Goto the redboard room and download the Mother Goose ROTW.
Alan B - again, thanks for pointing this horse out - made me reconsider and examine the sheet again, for which I make a quick $230+ on the exacta...and where was the class (owner?) in this easy field?
Sorry, could not resist...
Just realzed I hadn\'t posted that Like Now was the most likely to pick up the win if the top 3 faltered in the Gotham on this board. I had poted that on my group site Friday but forgot to do it here. Sorry about the apparent red boarding.
I\'m actually feeling quite stupid when 3 of my top 4 completed a $936 Trifecta and I didn\'t bet it. Same situation in the Rebel, except the pay-off was lower. I gotta get more consistent with my Exotics betting strategy.
Trifecta bets have a lower win percentage than than Exactas and Win betting and one should not give up on them after a short string of losses. Got caught in the
switches on this one.
Bob
All sorts of stories that Achilles of Troy was not going well on Friday and that Ernie Pag considered scratching but was advised by new \"trainer\" Amonte(under and over is 2 months before he\'s fired)that the colt was fine.Amonte was heard to say that Dominguez butchered the ride on AOT.For that alone, he should be fired. Domiguez had no horse at any time and I doubt seriously that Amonte has a clue.
The exercise rider, the state vet and others knew that ACHILLES OF TROY hasn\'t been right. He\'s been sore all week
Where\'s Sweet Catomine\'s connections when we need them.
I bet and lost a considerable amount of money on Sweet Catomine last year and Achilles of Troy on Saturday. In both cases, it turns out that right after the race in question, everybody knew the horse was lame but running anyway. If this is true, there really needs to be some consumer protection. I feel like a chump for betting on horses that everybody knew was lame. Maybe the track vetrinarian needs to be very publicly identified everyday. Publish vetrinarian stats -- how many horses does the vet stop from running. How many horses that the vet lets run break down? Maybe if these stats were widely available, bettors could temper their betting confidence according. I am curious what the names are of the vetrinarians that let these two high profile horses that everybody knew were lame to run. They should have to answer to the public.
Not sure but if a vet let a horse run that she/he knew was broken down she/he would lose there licence. so the list would be short and a new one would apear weekly if
This will never happen, that\'s why it\'s called a gamble. It sucks to here that you are a sheet player and lost a considerable amount of money on heavy chalk.
Smarting up!
I feel your pain SoCalMan2. The last time I bet a sizeable amount of coin on a nag was the 2000 Derby. I laid 5 dimes on The Deputy. When I watched Fu Peg win under a hand ride I felt like committing hary kary. Since then - the most I\'ve bet on one race is $500...
The bear got me and you good it looks like. I know trainers out west and I can;t even trust them when they say their animal should run big. For my money (make that big money) the best bet in gambling is either black or red on the roulette wheel or some of the college football games. I have had consistent good luck winning large sums on these events but my heart and soul lies at the racedtrack...
Better luck next time...
UB
Sometimes they go into the gate perfectly sound and go bad somewhere in the race. How do you distinguish? I do not believe that many vets and connections send one postward knowing their horse is lame but you can see gimpy cheap claimers going postward fairly frequently.
This is in reply to this out of line statment and the other out of line statements in this forum.
I have never caredabout any of these chat rooms and I have never responded to any statements, but my office manager who has this account on this forum has been e mailing me comments made on this forum and this last one is just outlandish.
First off whoever said Achilles of Troy was lame all week and everyone knew it is a blantent liar or a flat out moron. He was never lame at all, he worked on wed with Ramon and he said he went better than ever, he walked on thurs, on fri he jog and gallopped the exercise rider who has gotten on him every day since before he started his winning streak said he did not act the same he was not pulling at the bit, he never said he was off. I have no idea why this was but his left foot was warm but he seemed to jog fine for the trainer and the vet.
His blood was pulled this morning and the results are pending. He had digital x rays and scans done on both his front legs and he shows nothing even remotley wrong, he is very strong this morning and in fact is meaner than he has ever been. If someone seen him off this week I would like them to identify themseleves because they are liars.
The second point nowhere does it say that the horse had his head sideways when the gate opened causing him to break last and having to be rushed up into a traffic jam going into the first turn and having to be checked 3 times and then having to go 5 wide into very slow fractions. it looked like a carbon copy of the race he ran 4th behind trailing twelve except for being left at the post.
As far as being vanned off the NYRA vet that had him vanned off is the same unqualified vet who tried to put down Bush\'s Song on the track last year claiming she had a shattered back leg, she in fact had the needle in the horses neck until Jennifer Pedersen stopped her. Bush\'s Song in fact had no injuries but she bled thru the nostrils causing her to tyr up on the track, she camr back to the races and won and placed in a couple of races and has since been bred to artax. if the vet had her way she would be dog meat. The vets name is Jennifer Durenberger and that case was brushed under the carpet because we did\'nt want to cause NYRA anymore embarrasement. After she came back to the barn with Achilles she said there was nothing wrong with the horse.
And as far as the poster on this forum making comments about \"class\", he stated that he meet me at my daughters sweet 16 party and that i was cold to him when he asked me about horse. First off I never talk to anyone about my business during family events, I take away enough time from my family conducting my business, second off if you were working why were\'nt you doing your job and not bothering the people you are supposed to be working for, why don\'t you stop hiding behind your screen name and make youself know to me, you know where I am every racing day come by and make your comments to my face, if you have the class to do that, as i have the class to call you a coward degenerate gambler right to you with you knowing exactly who I am.
And regarding Jennifer Pedersen, I have taken a lot of bad press for this move, but it is the right move under the circumstances, Jennifer is one of the finest horsemen in the country when she is on her game, with her health problems and family tragedies she needed time to get things worked out. The only problem is she does\'nt reconize that she is not herself. I offered her another position in Paraneck until she was ready to train again and it was for a very lucrative salary where her and her family would not have any worries until she was ready to come back, but I guess she wants to do things on her own. As I told Jerry Bosart in the NY Daily News \' the horses would be in Frank Amonte\'s name until Jennifer was ready to come back\".
And last regarding trainers not wanting to work for me, this is the biggest joke in history. There is not 1 Trainer who can train that would not take horses for me. Dutrow ( trains NY Hero for me), Pletcher,Frankel,Baffert, J Jerkens, Assmusson, Louie Albertroni ( he is begging to come back, and he will have horse in Del for me), Nick Zito, Jim Reyerson, Randy Bradshaw, Labocetta, Violette, you name it they want to train for me. So whoever said I have a problem getting trainers and that no one wants to train for me is misinformed or is being told by trainers who would never have a chance to train for me because af lack of ability and there are many of them. I know Jennifer said I was hard to train for , but this was said for different reasons .
Regards
Ernie Paragallo
A racetrack makes money by putting as many animals in the gate as they can for any given race. Any state vet who attempts to be conscientious and scratches animals who are a little bit sore costs the track money and will be replaced in due time.
The case of Sweet Catomine was very disheartening in that it seems like both racetrack and state personnel were aware that all was not right with SC, and yet she was allowed to run. If SC, a heavy favorite, scratched, the total handle on the race would have been greatly decreased. Ditto Achilles in the Gotham. Conflict of interest: Money v Well Being of Animals. Guess who usually wins that match up?
Ed Fountaine, who writes for The New York Post, said in his Sunday coverage of the Gotham that the \"track vet\" saw nothing wrong with Achilles post race. As such it is not likely that this vet would have seen anything BEFORE the race. (Fountaine, in a great piece of journalism during the time when NYRA\'s future was \"day to day\", pointed out a bit indignantly that among the cutbacks in the interest of austerity was that a free lunch was no longer provided in the press box).
The question which has not been addressed (and might not be answered honestly) is how Achilles warmed up for Dominquez.
Ernie-- I\'ll let others deal with the 50 or so other things, but you seriously want to attack someone else for using a screen name? You posted several times here not only not identifying yourself, but referring to yourself (and talking yourself up) in the third person. To say nothing of calling the trainer you now say was good a \"hat rack\".
I never posted here before, I don\'t need to talk myself up, on the other hand I see your adds for all the great horse you advised on, it\'s not so impressive is it what about the tons of people you ran out of the business with your wise advice, if you had any ability you would own horses on the derby trail not 2500 claimers, right Jerry
PS you did a great job advising M sedalack did\'nt you he is doing great
\"The question which has not been addressed (and might not be answered honestly) is how Achilles warmed up for Dominquez\"
Rich,
I agree that the truth may never be known. Ernie Pag took the time to address the various comments about himself and the performance of AOT.I can only say that the performance of AOT was so far below this horses ability that it seems logical to think that he was not 100% himself yesterday for some unknown reason. His trip was ugly but this horse is too talented not to even make a run.
As far the gate break et al mentioned by Ernie, it just seemed that AOL was totally empty yesterday and just threw a clunker.If AOL is really ok, I\'m sure we will see him soon.
Mike
Mr Paragallo:
You sing the praises of Ms Pedersen as a trainer, but the truth is that with her at the controls you have won at a 10 - 12 % clip during her tenure at NYRA; most of the trainers who you mention that are willing to train for you (not on a private basis I imagine) maintain a much higher win percentage than Ms Pedersen has. What has prevented you from making a trainer change until this point?
My opinion is that you are so essentially involved in the day to day training of and decision making regarding Paraneck horses that it is only fair to the betting public that you be listed as trainer of record. It might be only
fair to yourself if you hired a high percentage trainer and relinquished some of your control of the day to day operation.
As a long time NYRA supporter, I appreciate the fact that Paraneck starts more horses year in, year out than any other owner. I just don\'t understand why you wouldn\'t want to hire a trainer who would allow you to win more of these races.
Ernie-- I tried to stay out of this, despite you doing your nonsense on my site, but you just won\'t let me. And you are such an easy target.
1-- Who did I run out of the business? What 2,500 claimers?
2-- Mike Sedlececk has trained exactly 3 Graph Racing horses, other than that I haven\'t been involved with any horses he has trained in over a decade.
3-- You never posted here-- except for all those JKev posts last week praising what turned out to be yourself? Or was someone else who can\'t spell, using the same e-mail address?
4-- Last year, when you were having your fire sale, a bloodstock agent gave me the list of the 50 or so horses you were trying to get rid of. There were about 5 on the list worth even considering, independent of price. Now, it costs about 4k a month, all in, to keep a horse in training in NY, but a lot of those were hurt and on the farm, so let\'s be generous and say it averaged 2k. That\'s 100k a month in training, vet and van bills-- that\'s $1.2 million a year, before counting the cost of buying/breeding/raising 50 thoroughbreds (a couple of million). As Ed Koch would say, how you doin\'?
5-- Haven\'t got much time for this, because I\'m heading for Dubai tonight with Super Frolic in the World Cup. Will I see you there?
I\'m only involved with about 15 horses right now. Aside from the ones we just bought that haven\'t run for our guys yet, about half have won or placed in stakes, and most of the 15 will make their next start in stakes.
in regard to how i am doing ALOT BETTER THAN YOU. do you want to compare balance sheets?????
Good luck with super frolic,, BUT YOUR SHEETS SHOULD TELL YOU STAY HOME AND SAVE THE TRIP MONEY YOU HAVE NO SHOT, as far as all your stake horse how many are in real stake races with a chance??????
Ernie-- you are too easy a target. I\'ll let you walk away.
Don\'t let him walk away...this is far too entertaining.
No, You should be very happy that i let you walk away
Guys us AOL Im service for you stuff its fun to read but.
Tell you what, \"Kev\". I\'m kind of busy today getting ready to leave, why don\'t you come back Thursday or Friday of next week.
Hmmm... there\'s a guy I barred from this site, maybe I\'ll give him a day pass to have a conversation with you. Now THAT would be entertaining...
and to think...it all started with a simple \"he\'s all class\" comment. And he proved it all by himself right here on this very board!
Guys,
I think it\'s fair game to discuss racing stuff with Ernie Pag and have your opinions. The guy does a lot of good things without looking for a pat on the back.Keep it about racing and alls fair.
Miff - you are right, I\'m dropping it.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sometimes they go into the gate perfectly sound
> and go bad somewhere in the race. How do you
> distinguish? I do not believe that many vets and
> connections send one postward knowing their horse
> is lame but you can see gimpy cheap claimers going
> postward fairly frequently.
Have to agree with Miff. Achilles of Troy is/was far too valuable a horse to send out gimpy. No way they would risk him after what he\'d already demonstrated on the track. Its quite possible this rumor of being off originated with a disgruntled trainer who formerly handled the horse. There may have been a disagreement regarding his readiness for the Gotham and that may be one reason why that former trainer is out.
Not altogether sure Achilles was gonna win that race regardless.
Oops, there I go again opening my mouth. Ernie P. spoke up to clarify and think we\'ll have to conclude that what he says is closest to the factual basis of it.
\"Not altogether sure Achilles was gonna win that race regardless\"
Chuck,
I thought if he ran near his best,he was too fast for that group, especially on his home court.I do not believe he could run that poorly, unless he was not himself on Saturday.
Mike
Mike,
Agree absolutely. He just wasn\'t himself after that awkward start. I think he just banged a leg, like or or I might when playing soccer or basketball (at least when we were younger, LOL) and was sore for a few minutes. Not something that would show on X-rays or bone scan, which were negative. Just painfull enough to keep him from extending himself that day.
Bob
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"The question which has not been addressed (and
> might not be answered honestly) is how Achilles
> warmed up for Dominquez\"
>
> Rich,
>
> I agree that the truth may never be known. Ernie
> Pag took the time to address the various comments
> about himself and the performance of AOT.I can
> only say that the performance of AOT was so far
> below this horses ability that it seems logical to
> think that he was not 100% himself yesterday for
> some unknown reason. His trip was ugly but this
> horse is too talented not to even make a run.
>
> As far the gate break et al mentioned by Ernie, it
> just seemed that AOL was totally empty yesterday
> and just threw a clunker.If AOL is really ok, I\'m
> sure we will see him soon.
>
> Mike
To follow up on Achilles effort, lets not forget he broke last and was only beaten 6 lengths. Additionally, he had not faced the caliber of horses before he faced Saturday. The horse that outran him for fourth, finished just in front of him once before as well. With a good break, its quite possible he hits the board, but the numbers I\'m looking at said that Sweetnorthernsaint was as good a horse and if you look real hard at their respective races from January 7th, you just may reach the same conclusion.
The folks here seem distraught he didnt win. I tend to think Ernie P. summarized it pretty well. He ran into trouble and he may have run into horses he can\'t handle easily. We won\'t know that for sure or not until the next round. But, I tend to think two that beat him, hes gonna have big trouble with.
Lastly, we witnessed a clash between two influential people in the industry with the kind of egos that go with influence and success. Good luck to Super Frolic, who in my opinion has a Negative 2 or thereabout in him for 10 marks. He certainly has a good chance.
Dear TG Board:
I\'ve never seen such energy over a horse running a bad race and with such malice. The energy between Ernie and Jerry aside, lets face it Achillies of Troy is a very nice NY winter stakes horse, one which I would love to own, but it\'s was not the second coming of Smarty Jones. The horse was over hyped. AOT looked great beating non descript black type horses. Remember how bad Birdstone ran in the Turfway Stakes (Jim Beam Spiral or whatever it is today)race prior to the Derby? Horses throw bad races every now and then for many many reason. Most of you should know it by now. This is not a case of Marty Wygod vanning the horse off track late at night to get scanned before the SA Derby. Now that was unscrupulous. Looking at the most recent workouts for AOT, they were on the slow side,perhaps indicating the horse may not be on the top of his game. The horse threw a cluncker. Get over it.
I hope the horse is ok and will be able to comptete at Graded stakes level.
Good luck to Jerry and Super Frolic in Dubai. Hope you like the food.
NC Tony
I woudn\'t consider a horse who consistently ran the highest figures at the distance in the field while winning by 15 and 5 lengths geared down to be over-hyped. I don\'t care if he beat a pack of mules, those were solid races. The only other Derby contenders I\'d place above him are Lawyer Ron and Brother David. Keyed Entry was favored over him in the Gotham at his own home track based on one race. That doesn\'t sound like an over-hyped horse to me.
I don\'t know how people can hold a race where he had to be vanned off after banging his leg up leaving the gate against him. Watch the replay and you\'ll see he was striding like a hurting horse every time he tried to extend himself.
I knew this was a top horse before the so-called hype began and will be formidable in the Wood, though Sweetnorthernsaint and Keyed Entry will be a stern test.
Bob
Bob,
You and I will never agree on the color of the sky.
If you really read my post, I said the horse threw a bad race for whatever reason. But I also said the horse was over hyped and thus over bet. he has yet to beat anything of quality. Once (if) he wins a graded race, I\'ll reconsider. Until then, he\'s a nice horse that needs to be spotted well. The jury is out in my book.
NCT
LOL Tony. At least not initially, but we often come to a comprimise because we understand that the point is not winning a debate but getting at the truth. We make better philosophers than lawyers, but that\'s a very good thing. :)
Bob
Dear Congaree1,
While I freely admit that I could benefit from smartening up (I am obviously already \"smarting\" as you put it), I do not think my play on AOT is an example of where I need to improve my game.
I am a very serious sheetplayer and usually am looking for ways to beat heavy chalk. When TGJB invited me to do the ROTW for the General George last year, I very strongly picked an 8-1 ML horse and advocated throwing out the horse that ended up being the favorite (and winner). Of course, I did not cash anything, but that is besides the point (I suspect Unforgettable Max did put forth a much better effort that his finish demonstrated). If you search my prior posts on this website, you will see my style of play and sheet analysis. I am not what you would call a heavy chalk player. I have to be honest, the innuendo in your message that I am somehow unaware of how to play this game is insulting. TGJB invited me to do a ROTW analysis because he was impressed with my sophisticated comparative sheet analysis of Musique Toujours under Thorograph versus Ragozin. I like to believe that my ROTW analysis and posts on this site are a sign of erudition rather than idiocy, but who knows -- sadly it is a debatable point.
My view of the Gotham was very similar to the Thorograph ROTW analysis. I thought AOT was very likely to run a zero or better, plus I thought he was likely to get the best trip of anybody (I thought he would get to the rail and sit tight behind a strong pace around the first turn and that Dominguez would be able to pick a good spot to make a move later in the race). I thought there was a chance that KE might not fire for a number of reasons (more than are listed in the ROTW analysis), and I thought SNS might get a bad trip from the outside post. I thought there were a lot of horses (e.g. Like Now) who could get into the super and make a nice super payout. 3-2 on AOT was not terrible appetizing, but the superfecta presented what I thought was an interesting opportunity. By singling AOT in the top spot, I was shooting to win money which included all the money in the pool from people who put AOT in lesser positions (people tend to over play low price horses in lesser positions in big exotics like the super (or play boxes when a sophisticated key or wheel may make more sense) and that makes the prices, when the heavy favorite comes out on top, better than they should be normally). Also, while I was including KE and SNS, I was not keying them and there would be a lot of money out there if either or both of them ran out of the super. I played the super with AOT keyed in the first position and various combinations underneath including the horses that did run 1,2,and 3. Although my ticket was expensive, it would have paid significantly more than the 3-2 win bet if AOT had run first over Like Now and SNS and KE. Also, I had the chance at a really significant score if box cars like Like Now filled out the rest of the Super. In general, it was a play I have done a lot and have had success with. While my Sweet Catomine play was significantly more complex and diverse, the same type of reasoning went into it.
When confronted with a heavy favorite, in my view, there are only two ways for a race to be playable -- keying the favorite in first and trying to make some money against other played horses underneath or else throwing out the favorite entirely. I think that the crowd overbets heavy favorites in lesser positions and it is senseless to bet them to come in second or third. Of course, I prefer to throw out favorites entirely, but that is not always prudent (and I did not think would be prudent with AOT). Often these races can come up like passes, but I decided to take a chance on the Gotham which brings me to your main point.
I am very well aware of what gambling is and well aware that anytime I make a bet there are a host of reasons I might lose. I have written extensively about this. I do not curse fate becasue my horse had a bad break, a bad trip, or took a bad step. That happens all the time and that is why it is gambling. The point of my earlier message was that there have been posts suggesting that AOT should not have been entered in the Gotham and many people were aware of this (see e.g. John T Chance\'s post above). While I think it is fair for the horseplayer to bear all sorts of risks, I think it is important that everybody have equal information when they are evaluating what to do. What I think is unfair is if some of the people I am competing against are able to unfairly get information that I am denied access to.
So, I felt like a chump not because I lost playing heavy chalk but because many of the people I was betting against had better information than me before the race. I said I felt like a chump, not a nimrod.
SCM2
Had AOT been well , a new top or pair probably was next - he did manage to maintain the level he established at 2 yo , maybe he does it again at 3 yo . I didn\'t like prices for either horse in the Gothem . Your handicapping and wagering strategies have demonstated success and common sense and although I\'m no chalk player , I can still say this - one should try ( if possible ) to hook them up if the play is warrented in order to get some value . Who\'s that guy think he\'s kidding ? ...
sorry but this one was on the side of caution. you have a horse that ran a 8 point top in a span of 5 months. in fact it was a - 0 which on a young 3 year old is enough. then a small regress. on top of that a trainer change (from one who had been suspect warm) in a race with a few horse who look like there going forward. You get what matbe 8/5 in what 10/11 horse race? sorry thats not what using the sheets is all about. write what you want but that is not a good long term play
Dear Basket777
Fair point. I also appreciate you making arguments rather than just saying I am stupid. While I understand what you are saying, I still believe my play is a case of what using the sheets is about. One of the beautiful things about horseracing is that reasonable minds can genuinely differ.
Here is what my thinking was --
First, you cannot really say whether the \"0.25 h?\" was a regression due to (a) the \"h?\" and (b) the fact AOT a young 3 yo. If there is ever a time you are saving a horse for a later race it is now.
Second, these are top 3 year olds. Sure horses bounce, but high quality three year olds early in the season are much less prone to bouncing to many other times of year and circumstances.
Third, I did not think the numbers he had ran were so beyond the pale huge that a bounce was inevitable....he is a horse that has never reacted (or only had just reacted to the negative number by a fraction of a point if you disagree with my reasoning under my first point). At seminars, Len Friedman use to always say he does not give a horse a reaction until the horse gives you one first. In my book, AOT had never given a reaction. On a horse like AOT it was hard to really say what a baseline is for judging when a jump up is just too much. If you ascribe to your theory, you have to throw out Like Now. He had reacted to an \"11\" as a 2 yo and was coming off a \"2\" just a few months later. I am not saying that Like Now was a throw out, I am just saying that these sorts of horses run their numbers a lot and it is not a good time to be applying normal bounce theories (although i was doing exactly that with Keyed Entry....although in my view the circumstances with KE were different...also I did not throw him out...i just made sure that he would not ruin an otherwise good ticket if he came in the super with a nice price horse).
Fourth, my play was not 8-5. I did not bet him to win. I bet superfectas trying to get a better effective price because the sheets told me that some good prices could come in underneath (and some short horses might not run). If you do some research, you can find that you can get some very nice supers with 8-5 shots on top as long as the field is large and you have some big price horses coming in underneath.
Fifth, normally, the trainer change would give me pause, but with this particular owner and this particular trainer, how do you know what to make of it? I just assumed it was par for the course drama with them and whoever the trainer is would be irrelevant. I think I recall reading somewhere that Amonte (or Paragallo) had basically been the trainer since December anyway.
Sixth, while passing the race may have been the best call, I think a player (who had no reason to think that AOT\'s foot was warm or that the exercise rider had said he was not himself on the Friday) who wants to make a play has to take a position on AOT. Either he runs his race and wins easy over these or he runs out. I was certainly not comfortable with throwing him out. I was tempted to pass, but thought there was a very good chance that the Super with him on top could pay well.
Look, the results are what the results are, I lost. If he was not already injured before the race, I lost fair and square and I have no beef with that. It happens all the time, and my bet assumes it would lose more than two thirds of the time anyway. I do not think it is fair to say that a person is not using the sheets correctly if they use a heavily favored horse in the first position. I think the sheets are about looking for value and I think that this sort of play does tend to produce value. If you and others disagree, then that is fine. It just means the inefficiences that I seek to take advantage of will not be corrected by the marketplace. In any event, I do appreciate that your comments were in a reasoned form, and I believe that this is something on which reasonable minds can differ.
SCM2
Basket:
I respectfully question your analysis. The sheets clearly made the 3 horses who were bet ... Achilles, SNS and Keyed Entry as fastest. The winner was arguably fourth fastest and you can thus say a big price at >30/1.
You mention a 10 horse field, but even if the top 4 went backwards, none of the other 6 could move forward enough to threaten them. I think the chart of the race proves this. Its not like it was a 10 horse field where 6 or 7 of them stood a fair chance to win.
I read no analysis on this board or in the press that didn\'t point out the abundance of speed in the race; as it turned out, Like Now was given an Inner Dirt EZ Pass. I don\'t think there was anything in the Sheets that gave one the knowledge that LN would get a clear top under a snug hold; that was really the knowledge that was necessary to have the winner of the Gotham.
My analysis of the race after looking over TGs and Form was that the 3 favorites looked clearly fastest. I went to Keyed Entry (knowing well that KE didn\'t need the graded earnings as much as others and a rating lesson was possible). I preferred Team Pletcher to Team Paraneck (kind of like comparing the dominant Yankee teams to the Bad News Bears).
The effects of the \"bomb\" were compounded by fallout 20 minutes later when Crop Buster ($23) took the finale, as I had CB with KE in doubles, P3s and P4s. Ouch.
In enjoyed your responses to both Congaree and Basket. Good handicappers explaining why they did what they did, even when it didn\'t pan out, is always good food for thought.
I\'m curious about your statement that favorites tend to get overplayed underneath in exotics. Have you seen data to that effect, or is that your own observation? I\'ve often wondered whether there are betting patterns in tris and supers that might offer value.
Respectfully,
BitPlayer
sorry i have been using the sheets since King T taught me as a youngster in the MD curcit. He always said the past fastest horse is a starting point in a race. however in betting horses you don\'t look for the past you look who will be the fastest in the race your betting. I agree that looking at the sheet numbers the 3 horses you mentioned had the lowest number for past races. great womnderful fantastic. that was a tuff one. but as i was taught that was yesterday. today is about profit. which horse at what odds had the best chance to win a profit. a top top 8 point move horse which regressed a tint bit is not what anyone would call a value play. It was a fun day spent my 120 for the whole set of sheets. made 18 bets the entire day. One was the gothman winner. opps along with perkins in the pick 4. of which one might recall paid 12,000 and change. looking for to next sat and buying all the sheets buying one 1000 voucher and seeing what i can. what a country.
will there be any for the card?
you do write well glad to have your thoughts all for the greater good of winning
Bitplayer,
Hope you don\'t mind me answering the question you put to SoCalMan, but I have seen mention that favorites are often overplayed underneath in the Exacta in \"Beyer on Speed\". The explantion is that many people box their Exacta bets so the favorite almost gets played as much underneath as on top.
Bob
Dear BitPlayer,
Thank you for the compliment. I wish I could tell you that there was sophisticated data backing up what I am telling you. Unfortunately, I am not aware of any. I can tell you the following about my observations....First, I believe Beyer may have written about this in one of his books long ago. Second, I use to notice when SoCal had very big fields that quite often a favorite would win and some long horse would come in underneath and the payoffs would seem quite generous to me. Again, I do not have anything empirical to offer you, but I can tell you that it has worked and produced some very pleasing results. Before the days of internet betting, I would read the charts everyday and think about whether a payoff was one I would want or not (really whether I was sorry I missed the day or not). If you just compare exotic payoffs to win odds, you come across some situations where the exotics seem absurdly generous and when they seem really stingy. I have tried to figure out when those are. The best I can tell you is that you need a big field. I think this is necessary because there are more combinations and the burden of the take on each combination is less than it is in smaller fields. Also, it perversely seems to come up when the favorite in question is very heavily bet (I would say 8-5 or lower).
If you think about it, a horse should have the same amount bet on it to win place and show because it should have the same relative chances for all three of those bets. However, when you bet a horse to come in second or come in third in an exotic, you are actually betting AGAINST that horse to win. In other words, a horse that has a lot bet on it to finish first in an exotic should have very little bet on it to finish in another postion because the big money on it in the first position is saying that this horse will not finish second. This is especially true with the heavy favorites because the crowd is basically saying these guys are really going to win. Nevertheless, a lot of people box and do things that result in these horses getting a lot of money in these other positions even if it is not logical. That puts some money out there to win for the person willing to take a position. The problem is that you need to have some real confidence to be able to take such a position because as we all know races are often so closely matched that the best horse can run second or third for a plethora of reasons. You need to find the times when the horse is so good that that normal level of uncertainty seems quite a bit lessened.
I do not try to force these plays. You really need some pre-conditions before it makes any sense. Having the big field is key. Also, the horse needs to be a very big favorite. If the horse is 5-2 or 3-1 as a favorite and you have a lot of confidence, you are much better off just betting to win. One reason is that this is not such a heavy favorite that it is illogical to think it might run second and the money bet in the lower positions is not as ripe for the picking on a basis of pure logic; another is that winning the race is not enough, you need to get a price horse underneath. I lose these bets sometimes when the favorite wins because I cannot get a price horse up. I do not want to be missing 5-2 or 3-1 on the clear winner that I was confident in in these cases (I kick myself and wonder why I didn\'t just make the big bet to win). However, I am not going to lose any sleep over missing a 6-5 or 7-5 win price. Sometimes, you have the overwhelming favorite, but there is no reason to be suspect of the other horses that are bet. In those situations you cannot do this play because people really seem to overbet the exotics with the logical contenders running in (again, I cannot give you evidence backing this up, it is my observation). So, in addition to the overwhelming favorite, you need some horses that can come in at big prices and some horses that can run out at low prices. These are really the important pre-conditions. So, you have to be really careful not to force this play because if you do not have the preconditions, you do not have the generous potential that causes the bet to make sense. One thing I might add is that you probably want to make sure you are covering with the lower priced horses. For example, this principle works if the odds in the super are 6-5,7-2,50-1,4-1. You do not want to lose out on the good payoff because you needlessly threw out the low horses but were right about the 50-1 shot. So you need to do the ticket by keying some long prices and using lots of horses in the other spots.
Now, you are taking risk in filling out the bottom of the ticket of course, but your payoff seems to be overly enhanced because of all the money that was lost by the people who put the favorite in the second through 4th position.
I feel like I havent really given you what you are looking for (hard and fast support to back up what I am saying), and I apologize for that. I can only tell you that it is my observation and I have been pleased with the results.
SCM2
Dear Basket777
Thank you. I do appreciate that you make good points when you argue even if I might not always agree with them. By the way, my first trip to the races ever was at Timonium in 1975, and I used to cut classes to go out to Bowie in High School. So, we may have something else in common besides are agreed appreciation of the value of the sheets. I actually miss Bowie.
SCM2
well nothing was like seeing a bernie bond first time starter. or muckaluck killing those 5 clamers. saw cure the blues break his madien also had a tip on montbrook. he was 7 to 1 with 2 mins to go. was the 7 hourse went off at 1/9 great days back then ronny alfano had the best drugs. best memory having 3 dollars and hiting a pck 6. there was a 5/1 9/1 14/1 and 11/1 . i thought i was going to be rich. took the whole pool that day. 845 dollars. that was a great lesson
SCM2 -
You answered my question perfectly. Thanks.
BitPlayer
i think your a basket case.
I think Jerry has good reason to take exception w/ Ernie , credibility is not a commodity here - it\'s paramount . AOT didn\'t look well saturday , his body language while racing seemed to say that something was wrong and he certainly didn\'t fire . Though if ( somehow ) he had kept the bogus vet 50 yrds away from his horse at all times , that would have made sense ...
In Mr. Paragallo\'s post, he mentions that on the Friday, the regular exercise rider said that AOT was not himself (not pulling at the bit) and there was some heat in his left foot. He also said that AOT, nevertheless, \"seemed\" to jog fine for the trainer and the vet.
As a person who knows nothing about horses physically, I would appreciate the take of a person more knowledgeable about equine anatomy and well being. Is this something that a Mandella or a Drysdale would be scratching over? It looks to my uneducated eye that this may well fall into a grey area, but I would very much appreciate more insight. Is this the type of thing that should be required to be reported if the powers that be required more information to be shared with the betting public? Thanks in advance.
Also, I would like to thank Mr. Paragallo for two reasons. There is no reason for him to come out here and even say anything, so I think we benefit from his willingness to engage in discourse here. My original beef was that we horseplayers are not being treated fairly information wise, and Mr. Paragallo has been very generous sharing information in this format. Second, I would like to point out that Mr. Paragallo is an extremely strong and generous supporter of a sport that we all love, so for that I offer my thanks also.
Not a trainer of TB\'s to race (but of hunter/jumpers), I do train running hounds, and as a vet: here you have the common situation of an animal that perceptively seems a bit not \"usual\" - examined by trainer, vet brought in to examine, nothing quantitatively found.
You are now in that nebulous grey zone every trainer hates. Did you catch something early, before it\'s overtly clinical, or is it nothing at all?
Every animal has an off day. Even elite athletes rarely perform at 100%. Did he clean up his feed? What\'s he doing in the stall, how is he acting otherwise?
You are left to rely on only two things: first, the animal telling you what he wants to do; secondly, your gut trainer \"esp\" regarding the situation.
The second should override the first, IMO, as if you\'re a good trainer, your esp will be correct nearly all of the time; secondly, the better the animal is, the more willing they will be to do what they love and risk self-destruction (they can\'t predict it).
It\'s not easy. If it is nothing, you\'re the astute trainer in tune with every nuance of the animals in your care; if it\'s something, and you let the animal run, you\'re the chump, the one ignorant of the fine points of husbandry.
Unfortunately it sometimes takes the pressure of performance to make subtle things apparent.
JMHO, your actual mileage may vary.
Your right about Ernie being generous w/ his time and info - it is appreciated as is Jerry for allowing me to post and partake on the TG Ask The Experts Forum .
I really have no practical experience on the horseman/ biz side of the game , I realize a common sense laymans take on the situation doesn\'t always cut the muster and is nieve on my part ... SoCalman and sighthound , both of your points are well taken .
Perhaps the negative 0 ( almost a 6 pt top ) hurt the horse 3 races back , when only able to get within 3/4\'s of a point to his top next time out is the best that he can do . The answer was still unclear going into last saturday\'s race , but if AOT did in fact bounce in the Gothem , it would not be a shocker based on his pattern .
What do I, as a bettor, want to know ...
Equipment changes.
Shoe changes.
I believe in strict drug testing. Knowing also, however, that very few horses with much experience under their belts are really technically 100% sound, all have their own little concerns or problems, to a greater or lesser degree, that are managed throughout their careers, the horsemanship of the trainer being paramount here (the warriors of the cheap claiming ranks the best example)
Do I want to know every time a vet visits a barn? (certain vets of repute not withstanding) Not especially ... I\'d rather know if a new or different farrier shod the horse for this race.
The rest I guess I can see for myself in the paddock and warmup.
What do you guys want to know?