greely gets put up to 1st and 2nd slot.
Giacamo a bissle on top and sprinkled thoroughly to 4th
Ulstntome and Canteen a dab from 2nd to 4th
Remember what Shanahan said last week about outside posts and have pulled both Wilko and High Limit.
Liking Greeleys Galaxy over:
Top This and That
Hockey the General
Ulistintome
High Limit-survives the speed and hangs on for a check
Really want to unload on Greeley\'s Galaxy at 10-1, but what about is 0 fer 30 third race back??????? Ouch!!!!!!! Greeley may go off much higher than 10-1......
If you believe in the TG numbers........Greeley will stroll around the track, make a middle move, and finish 4th or 5th.....I believe!!!!!!!
Ia\'e asked so many times about eqibase profiles and never gotten an answer....data that I have say trainer is 9%.
How such an astute organization is willing to publish such drivel is beyond me.
Greeley\'s Galaxy has one number sure to win the Strub,If you believe in that number.
His last race he did finally show some life, so whatever his best is, you are probably going to get it today.
If he is 10-1 that will make one feel better about what on paper is a one timer. He probably won\'t be anywhere near 10-1. If you doubt the legitimacy of the One Time, he may only be the 4th fastest horse in the race.
So what do you do? Take maybe 9-2 on the One Time and not bad last effort, or take a stand against TGraphs best animal in the race on Figs?
Greeley\'s has 1 figure in 8 races that can win. Fair Odds will be 7-1. Will you get that? Will you take it?
Davidrex--what horse? what trainer?
spa Wrote:
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> Really want to unload on Greeley\'s Galaxy at 10-1,
> but what about is 0 fer 30 third race back???????
> Ouch!!!!!!! Greeley may go off much higher than
> 10-1......
this is the horse...this was the message I responded to. TSN has the trainer 17% >90 days,7% 2nd lay,9% 3rd lay
Tabitha, what if you considered Greelys\' last as a testimonial that the animal is healthy and alert by just putting up a # that is better than anything previous(or after) to the haw.#,and yet may not have taxed him to any great extent?
Win or lose ,greelys\' line is what makes Browns\' such a very good tool.
Lets say you dismiss the big figure and take it back a few points. Its still a fast race. As for the others that are faster:
1-Giacomo: 8 mo layoff (best paired .5)
2-High Limit: Never improved off of 2 yo top and an outside post today (best 1)
3-Wilco: Never improved off of 2yo top, ran it once since (best 2.75)
4-Dixie Meister: paired 3s and getting 2 pds, this would be the horse to fear off this list (best 3)
He may have 1 race in his last 8 good enough to win, but lets look at them. 1st 4 races marches steadily to the big number (-2), backs up in the derby (not the first to do that), bad start and backs up off 2 weeks rest (Preakness), 7 mo layoff and returns in a graded sprint where he splits a big field while running on the rail, then runs a much improved race in a route to run his 2nd best fig (2.75). 2 works since including a 4F bullet 2 days ago, this horse is on edge and should fire a good race today. I don\'t think he\'ll be 10-1, but at 7-1 or so he is worth a bet.
The fast horses all have question marks for the win and many others look too slow. GG and Dixie Meister on top of High Limit, Ulistnintome, and Giacomo. Good luck.
davidrex Wrote:
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>
> Tabitha, what if you considered Greelys\' last as a
> testimonial that the animal is healthy and alert
> by just putting up a # that is better than
> anything previous(or after) to the haw.#,and yet
> may not have taxed him to any great extent?
His \"second\" fastest figure in his career. Clearly you have to consider him on form.
> Win or lose ,greelys\' line is what makes Browns\'
> such a very good tool.
7-1 is probably a fair price for those wanting to bet Greeley is rounding back to an unchallengeable effort or is fast enough to win with a 3. A much better betting race is the Donn.
greeley backin up in the stretch. imagine that........
Well GG didn\'t win. Don\'t understand the ride from the 1 hole but that\'s no excuse. He didn\'t have it.
As for the apparent data discrepancy I can only speak for TG.
The run-based figures chronicle trainer success rates from 2002 on.
3rd off the layoff is defined as:
1. the trainer must have raced the horse before the layoff and that last race before the layoff had to have occurred in 2002;
2. more than 90 days off constitutes a layoff;
3. 2nd off the layoff has to occur 42 days or less since the layoff race; and
4. 3rd off the layoff has to occur 42 days or less since the 2rd off the layoff race, etc.
Same trainer for all conditions above.
Under these criteria, no Warren Stute horse succeeded, hence the 0 for 30. Now mind he had at least 3 horses wherein the last race before the layoff occurred in 2001 and at least 1 where the horse won 3rd time lifetime but that doesn\'t qualify.
I don\'t know what criteria TSN uses, nor the time period being measured.
When initially looking at the race thrs eve for a contest , I liked GG but didn\'t think he\'d be any kind of a price . As it turned out my projected ML was wrong and GG was quite usable and a good play at the generous odd\'s - nice call ...
Marcus...you\'ve had too much kool-aid!!!!!!!! Greeley was not in the race to win......TG was correct, he\'ll run his race next time.......
SPA
\"Greely\'s Galaxy is the most likely winner\" as per TG. Of course TG was correct, Duh! Not even close,like a majority of the time.
spa- I\'m saying this for the benifit of those readers here who might really not know becouse they\'re learning or new to the game .
As JB , GW & Al and many others here have mentioned , the whole basis for betting horse\'s is to find overlay\'s or what you might consider to be a discrepency in the odds , then if so inclined , and from a money manegment point of view , to go with the overlay and leave undervalued stuff alone .
Marcus....the horse was not in to win....we\'ll catch him next time.
Geez once again Greely\'s disappoint\'s. I bet the exacta with High Limit Huge. the Horse sat in perfect position but once again did not fire.Maybe next time like every one is saying, but not sure he\'ll get my money. Think this one is over classed right now. High Limit on the other Hand is maturing into a real race Horse or so it seems. lets face it that race did not have much in terms of early Speed and HL sat off the cheap early speed and cleared earlier than the closer types. GG had no excuse what so ever not to finish at least second.
NC Tony
4 wide is not the perfect position last time i checked
High Limit clearly proved yesterday he is a top notch horse and once again as usual TG got the figure correct in the La Derby and Blue Grass last year.
4 wide where?
NC Tony
What High Limit proved yesterday was that Giacomo needed a race and probably needs 10 furlongs.
High Limit proved that Top This and That was a 3 horse sitting on a regression going in and is a 3 horse that regressed coming out.
High Limit proved that Greeley\'s Galaxy has figure issues that are bigger than form and which tend to suggest Greeley is a member of a substantial list of horses that were assigned very fast figures last year, for open daylight wins, calculated upon the usual efforts of the beaten horses.
The Blue Grass is another matter entirely.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> High Limit clearly proved yesterday he is a top
> notch horse and once again as usual TG got the
> figure correct in the La Derby and Blue Grass last
> year.
spa , I understand and look forward to that next time , where does the horse go from here ?
Marcus..Greeley should return in 30 days at a mile and an eighth....and blow the doors off at 10/1.
marcus Wrote:
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> spa , I understand and look forward to that next
> time , where does the horse go from here ?
That depends upon whether they want to increase his chances of winning.
Non Winner of 3 Races other than maiden, claiming or starter allowance for 3YO and up Colts. One turn mile might be a nice distance. He gives every appearance of a horse with distance limitations and chances are a 3 or 4 won\'t win there either.
ok tab your fly + but 7-1 or so on GG isn\'t bad , of course better still to have won . your getting some milelage out of this . but like many rag post\'s , (and apparently this one is another ex) , it isn\'t going anywhere . anytime you\'d like to discuss specific patterns on this site or wagering strategies for future races , let someone know ... you\'ll invaribly boast a better roi !
ps - stay hi to lucy over there !
marcus Wrote:
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> ok tab your fly + but 7-1 or so on GG isn\'t bad
> , of course better still to have won . your
> getting some milelage out of this . but like many
> rag post\'s , (and apparently this one is another
> ex) , it isn\'t going anywhere . anytime you\'d like
> to discuss specific patterns on this site or
> wagering strategies for future races , let
> someone know ... you\'ll invaribly boast a better
> roi !
Patterns?
You seriously want to discuss Patterns and mention Greeley\'s Galaxy in the same breath?
Greeley\'s Galaxy didn\'t have a pattern in his Past Performances. He had a \"One Time\" factored upon the losing efforts of Monarch Lane and Magna Graduate. Subsequent to that effort he worked a mile for the Kentucky Derby and stopped running before the work distance was completed. He made nice middle moves in the Derby and Preakness and stopped in both like a horse trying to cross Silver Charm\'s \"A bridge too far\". He was a non factor in the Malibu and then ran a 3 and finished a weakening 3rd in the 1-1/16th San Fernando.
Saturday, Greeley\'s Galaxy had to run 1-1/8. He ran about 1-1/16, what made anyone believe their was a Pattern to read or that he really wants that much ground? And this doesnt even consider the legitimacy of the Negative 2 in the Illinois Derby.
Wanna talk about Patterns and One times? Look at Brass Hats Figures. As a three year old he repeated Negative .5\'s in different form cycles. He was then injured and came back a year later. In his comeback his figures \"forged\" from
4
0
Negative .5
The last equaling his 3YO top. What kind of race did you expect in the Donn with the plethora of speed present? The only issue was the track condition and this horse has carried it\'s track with him.
If we learned something in the Strub, maybe it was this: \"Dont\' take 7-2 on a \"One Time\" when theres been no evidence the horse wants to repeat it and other horses in the race have faster figures than the One Timers second best.\"
Dang, betting against Stevie Wonder was good for another cash or two. Now he\'s out.
Giacomo ran alot of races before improving when running a pair of 4 1/2 pt tops , then bounced badly which was followed by about a year lay off .
Greeley\'s Galaxy ran down to a negative number aka kimmel style in 4 races , then backed up almost 6 pts next time and then after that , another 4 pt backward move in the Pim race , ending the year with another terrible number @ SA , then on short rest , he runs his 2nd best number in his 1st 4 yo race and again on short rest to the Stub .
GG had a number he could run back too but didn\'t is not an anomily . Probably needed more time in between the last few races .
So what are you saying , that you don\'t agree w/ the numbers or that the horse ( or a horse ) could not run off that line ? If your point is that you where right about a race ok but remember that doesn\'t necesarily mean everybody else was wrong and you might very well be right about a race but not for the reasons you think - it happens all the time , specially if one becomes a little too ego involved .
As far as 20/20 hind site on trip or pace stuff - my personal inclination is in many or most of these previously run races is that , I don\'t care how a horse runs a number . To say a horse ran or didn\'t a number due pace is as viable as saying that a horse not taking to a particular surface was cause for failure and is subjective to a large degree .
I don\'t have Brass Hats sheet in my computor ...
marcus Wrote:
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> Giacomo ran alot of races before improving when
> running a pair of 4 1/2 pt tops , then bounced
> badly which was followed by about a year lay off
> .
>
> Greeley\'s Galaxy ran down to a negative number
> aka kimmel style in 4 races , then backed up
> almost 6 pts next time and then after that ,
> another 4 pt backward move in the Pim race ,
> ending the year with another terrible number @ SA
> , then on short rest , he runs his 2nd best number
> in his 1st 4 yo race and again on short rest to
> the Stub .
Granted, Greeley\'s recent Past Performances lack the spacing he started his career with. The other thing that became clear after the Illinois Derby is that Greeley suddenly wasn\'t as forwardly placed. Perhaps that was due in part to training to get the Triple Crown distances. That trend held until the San Fernando when he finally showed signs of life again and raced near the front. Saturday, he was set to pop, but was four lengths back in the early running, however he was facing better horses again. Interestingly he\'s faced Giacomo 3 times now and can\'t seem to finish in front of him.
The race may come when someone wants to speculate that Greeley can return to that Negative 2 in the Illinois Derby. You\'ll want very good odds to make that speculation, certainly much higher than 7-2, because you\'re not going to win that race with Greeley on the basis of that Negative 2 Back Figure.
To win again against better horses at 1-1/8 miles, Greeley is going to need to catch the good part of a carrying track and he\'s going to have to have a pace advantage so he doesn\'t get discouraged running from behind.
>
> GG had a number he could run back too but didn\'t
> is not an anomily . Probably needed more time in
> between the last few races .
>
> So what are you saying , that you don\'t agree w/
> the numbers or that the horse ( or a horse ) could
> not run off that line ? If your point is that you
> where right about a race ok but remember that
> doesn\'t necesarily mean everybody else was wrong
> and you might very well be right about a race but
> not for the reasons you think - it happens all the
> time , specially if one becomes a little too ego
> involved .
>
> As far as 20/20 hind site on trip or pace stuff -
> my personal inclination is in many or most of
> these previously run races is that , I don\'t care
> how a horse runs a number . To say a horse ran or
> didn\'t a number due pace is as viable as saying
> that a horse not taking to a particular surface
> was cause for failure and is subjective to a large
> degree .
>
> I don\'t have Brass Hats sheet in my computor ...
>
>
>
> Edited 3 times. Last edit at 02/07/06 07:57AM by
> marcus.
Your definately on to something tab - of those 2 horse\'s Giacomo did manage to hold form untill the big bounce and lay off as a 3 yo . If he\'s right now , some additional late development is not out of the question however unless the odds are generous , I take a wait and see attitude on those types when they return to racing . Those races in the trpl crown hunt at 2 + 3 yo \'s do take their toll on horse\'s as they did on Giacomo .
As far as GG is concerned , who\'s to say it\'s impossible for the horse to run a top effort last saturday or ever , it\'s a junk pattern and I\'d definately need a much bigger price than 7-2 and if one goes with this kind it\'s a price play .
I realize that when supporting yourself betting , which I\'m not , one must take what is there sometimes and do your best w/a less than ideal card or race etc but I don\'t the Strub was necesarily one of those situations and don\'t like taking a short price in any situation even if I think it\'s an A+ play .