The ROTW analysis on Buzzard\'s Bay puzzles me. What I see is a young horse that was solid early at 3, was given some time off, came back with an effort that indicated he might have moved to a new level, was tried on turf and didn\'t like it, and is now back at the right surface, right distance, and right timing into the race. I understand that the post will hurt and might hurt enough to keep him out of the top spot. What I don\'t understand in the analysis is that you seem to be dismissing him as a contender. Not even mentioned in the Overview with Desert Boom, Who\'s Crying Now, and Supervisor. The eventual odds may make one or more of those a better play than Buzzard\'s Bay. But the latter certainly looks like a strong enough contender to me that I would have trouble dismissing him from consideration. I would like to hear other comments on this.
The analysis does mention him as \"a contender on his best\"; I believe he was left out of the Overview because at his projected odds (3-1?) he would have to be \"a strong contender on his usual effort despite the post\" to be worth mentioning and he is clearly not that. I agree with your analysis on his pattern though and would save with him if going long in the race. It comes down to the odds and he\'ll be well supported; there doesn\'t look like any others to really suck the big money in here.
I\'m not sure what he means by a \"square price\" on Desert Boom. I imagine he (and the hot Sherman) will take their share, they\'re not sneaking up on anybody. They were 7-5 in the Cal Cup at this track.
On the other hand, I think Who\'s Crying Now could be a big price. Love the jock switch and the race scenario. Maybe trouble wont find him (or vice-versa?) and he gets a big piece of the million. Wont be the 65-1 when placed at the Gulf last spring but maybe better than 15-1? Can the TG ROTW affect the odds in a bad way? I would have gladly paid the $5!
I agree with Desert Boom, for the reasons given. Lava Man must have had a heat stroke...if true, he\'ll never be the same. He\'ll take a ton of money to the burner. Buzzard\'s \"0\" may have cooked him for awhile...why the turf try????
To Flushedstraight.....how many of the loyals made money last week???? You can lead a horse to water......
Jim P,
I agree with your analysis on Buzzard\'s Bay and intend to use him in the Exacta. He does have that outside post but unlike Tricky Trevor, who I otherwise like, but will be fighting for the lead wide, he can tuck in behind the speed and can close off the expected hot pace.
I hate it when you have a horse like Lava Man in here. if he\'s right he\'s tons the best and he had excuses in his last 2 - washed out and bled in the JC Gold Cup and had a foot problem in Japan plus the long trip. Then again, you never know if he\'s still got it, but since I can\'t find a good reason to think he doesn\'t, I have to include him in my Exotics.
Desert Boom is the most solid one in the bunch and will be my key. He has the most consistently good figures and can stalk the quick pace.
Bob
Just can\'t seem to get out of my head that this is a million dollar race!
I assume all fla. runners are eligible for bute? But to ship all this way and for most to have already had extended campaigns feeding off smaller fish has led me to look for the fresher animal,not shipping and blessed with a decent gate number.
Texcess hasn\'t been able to go thru his 2 yr. old top,but has a new handler that might be the kick in the arse he needs to finally allow Jerry to give him a new top.
He\'s just got to be a big price for me to wager on a loser like this,but then this isn\'t really a million dollar line-up.
Taking him under lava man,desert boom,buzzards bay,in ex. and tri.
15/1 or higher feels right to me,a couple on his head to win(yeah),and a buck or two under all the others.
Funny, even if he loses I feel I put my money in the right place.
Recall that last year\'s edition of this event produced 70-1 winner Musique Toujours.. Much like NY\'s state-bred all-stakes card, this set of races has a tendency to produce some wacky outcomes.
BB\'s line looks a bit fragile , even if everything set up for him it\'s probably a small chance for him right now to run a new top that would be needed to offset ground loss . At a short price BB could be used on top with other horse\'s in an exacta part wheel to protect the win bet ( as added insurence ) if one was going that way w/ the race . I\'m considering a 3 or 4 horse $1 box ( w/o BB ) with win bets any 15-1 or better ...
The question is. When will Mitchell cause him to move forward 3-4 points ? He does it all the time with claimers. See Ausin Barber , Star over the Bay , Lucky Leprechaun etc. etc.
Texcess has always intrigued me because he beat both Giacamo and Closing Argument in separate 2Y0 races. Of course that was in November and December of 04, and he hasn\'t won since then.
But who knows. Agree with Kasept the BBQ man that this is a series of (high stakes) state bred races and a certain degree of chaos can be expected.
I will suspend my overbearing Magna diatribes for the day. FrankStro and his team have put together a very bettable series of races.
But why doesn\'t team Magna work on a series of races, taking place at this time of the year, open to animals bred and stabled anywhere? Get rid of what Jay Hovdey calls the \"contrived\" Florida/ California rivalry and get the races graded status. You could continue to have the days races on 2 fronts, which allows for 6 races to be run in a more rapid fire fashion. Call it the FrankStro/ Magna Winter Olympics (actually the timing is perfect-- the \"dark\" weekend before the Super Bowl).
For Frank to assume the mantle of \"Racing Visionary\", he needs to create an event in Winter, when his two current racing venues are open (both \"major race places\", as the logo for one of the two used to say)(actually this may have been Hollywood\'s tag line). The Sunshine Millions, Florida Derby Day, Santa Anita Derby Day, the Super Saturday Breeders Cup Preview races at Belmont all create an increased buzz amongst the hard core, but none of them really rope in the casual horseplayer who gets interested only in the Triple Crown and the Breeders Cup.
Frank, you probably do not have enough money left to buy the Kentucky Derby or the Triple Crown or the Breeders Cup, so you have to create a Winter Event which will get some attention for racing and for yourself. It will be challenging, but I\'m betting that you have the \"horses and resources\" to get it done.
Just saw morning line on desert boom..THATS IMPOSSIBLE!
How can the prettiest line w/Sherman be over 9/2?
I\'m going back to check myself,but 9/2 would seem generous
I can tell you one of Ron Ellis\' major moves is turf to dirt, and my clockers tell me he\'s training tremendously. Should get a nice stalking trip, too. If he\'s not too far back and doesn\'t have too much to do, he looks very solid, perhaps at a decent price. There seems to be a lot of speed in the race if they all go. What\'s not to like???
in case you are not aware - posts 8 & out are a combined 1 / 70 this meet around two turns...
According to Brisnet, this season at SA at 9 furlongs posts 8 and up have an impact value of 1.4 and a 10% win %.
Not great but a lot better than 1/70. Are you including mile and 1 1/16 mile races? They would have a terrible win % because of the short run to the 1st turn.
Bob
I\'m crying now..thats who!
DR
You want a tale of woe? I left Lava Man off my \"5\" ticket...
Singled Promenade, Moscow and Fortune... used Miesque, Silver and Sand in the Turf and then Crying, Supervisor and Boom in the Classic...
I want to kill myself... Paid $13,600+...
How do you get a $100 horse and then not have Lava Man on the duchat?
now thats a tough beat!