I was not impressed with Brother Derek\'s race. The final 1/8th was too slow.
here\'s a horse that wins a 150,000 dollar race and your not impressed. not sure how many there are but to win one at any level is somewhat impressive in itself
And he wasn\'t too impressive winning the Gr. I HOL Futurity either... (when he lowered his top to 1.25..)
Before that he was a really unimpressive 4th in the BC Juvy at 57-1... (with a new top of 4..)
And earlier he was totally unimpressive wiring the Gr. II Norfolk... (on a regression to 10.25..)
That\'s a very deceptive 6/4-0-1 ($600,000) record he\'s toting around...
The raw final time for the final eigth, or any fraction, without regard for the track varient is practically meaningless. It also matters whether or not the horse contested the early pace. Most importantly, one has to look at how the competitition ran the final eight. The fact that the BC Juvenile champion and likely Eclipse winner couldn\'t gain an inch on Brother Derek in that final eigth speaks volumes.
Bob
First start back -- probably not 100% for a top effort, first time around two turns, lost a bit of ground throughout, I think you are underestimating the effort of Stevie Wonderboy. Given the set-up (only speed), Brother Derek should of won by more.
Not degrading Stevie Wonderboy\'s effort at all. I think he ran a good race and the ground loss did cost him. I think Stevie and Brother Derek probably both ran very good races. I\'m just saying you can\'t discount BD\'s performance, and SW\'s for that matter, soley on the basis of the somewhat slow final eigth without looking at other factors. I\'m more interested in seeing the figures they earned for the race before I put down either one\'s performance.
Bob
Brother Derek has stayed in serious training since the BC. He was primed for this. Stevie Wonderboy was not. I will give the latter the benefit of the doubt until I see how he does after some serious conditioning. I\'m not saying that Stevie Wonderboy gave a convincing performance. Only that I\'m going to postpone judgement. Brother Derek had the pace all to himself, should be in top condition, and still didn\'t finish like a horse that wanted more. My context is the Triple Crown: I\'m making my judgement now on Brother Derek. He\'s a toss. I expect him to continue to be a useful sort, just not Triple Crown material in my book. That\'s not a disgrace. But I certainly don\'t object to you guys betting him with both hands in the future books. I wish you all the best of luck. Enjoy!
Jim, I agree Stevie Wonderboy had the disadvantage of coming off a layoff and going wide verses Brother Derek and would not favor BD over SW at the classic distances in the fall based on his victory at the mile of the San Rafael. My point was that I would still call the victory impressive at the distance over a very good horse. While the early pace he set was not hot, it was reasonable, given the final time, and he didn't tire anymore than his rival who raced further off the pace. I suspect Jerry's figure will be very similar for both horses. The jury is still out on how these 2 perform as the distances stretch out, though I still feel that Stevie Wonderboy remains the winter book favorite.
Good luck to you as well.
Bob
The pace for the first 1/2 was on the slow side for high quality horses at 1 mile. Then it picked up strongly. A 23 3/5 3rd 1/4 followed by a 12 3/5 next 1/8 is moving really well in the latter stages of a 1 mile race. That the final 1/8 was a little weaker isn\'t a shock given that hot middle. Both horse rans well, but Stevie had little chance to run down another high quality opponent given that pace set up. I\'ll take Stevie in the rematch if the pace setup looks even honest.
One can't just judge pace by looking at raw fractions without regard to track speed anymore than you can just use unadjusted final times. You have to look at the splits in relation to the final time. For a 2-turn mile run in 1:36.11, the splits were honest.
I do agree that Stevie Wonderboy might have won under different circumstances, but that was because he lost about 2 lengths on the turns while Brother Derek rode the rail. That's why I suspect Jerry will give them both about the same figure with SW maybe a bit better. The problem is that with his running style, he always goes wide, so in a rematch, the result would depend on the trip.
Of course, as I said earlier, when Stevie gets a few more races under his belt and the distances stretch out, he should do even better, so he is right on track for the Triple Crown races. Brother Derek may or may not have distance limitations, but my main concern with him is that he may be peaking too soon.
Bob
Can\'t agree about the pace. BD appeared to be going easy on the lead in that small relatively paceless field. The 3rd quarter was just as fast as the first two, which indicates the first half was slow because most races tend to slow down late and not pick up on the turn later. It looked that way from appearances too. They picked it up and SW was working real hard to get into contention on the turn. The rest of the day\'s route fractions relative to their final times all indicate a slow first half for BD. SW didn\'t have much of a chance against that high quality of an opponent given that trip. He will be sharper next out and will beat BD next time even if he\'s not.
Who said they were going to bet on him in the future books?? You sound a little bitter, is your real name Merv Griffin?? All we\'re talking about is this race and what BD has accomplished to this point. Who said anything about unloading in future books?? Since you mentioned future books and the TC, what are you going to get with SWB?? Relax dude.
I assume that \"bitter\" was directed to me. If so, nope, not bitter at all. What would I have to be bitter about? I would like to have Merv Griffin\'s money. I suppose I could get bitter about that. But I\'m not. Hadn\'t even thought about until you brought it up. Now I\'m thinking about it. AND I\'M STARTING TO GET BITTER! (P-Dub, in case you want to start psycho-analyzing that last statement, that was just my George Costanza imitation. Got it?)
Since I seemed to have stirred up this Bro Derek discussion (and I have enjoyed it), let me summarize my opinion: I think Bro Derek is a very nice miler. If placed properly, he will earn a ton of money. His connections seem to be starting down that road. They\'ve kept him cranked up so that he can pick up some of these early Triple Crown prep races before the competition really heats up and the races get longer. If they stay on that track and backoff when they start to stretch them out, give him a little breather in the summer, he could be tough to handle at a mile this Fall and next year. When I said I was not \"impressed\" at the top of this string it was purely in that context. Not that I don\'t like the horse. I just don\'t think he is a Triple Crown contender. But I would sure love to own him. And I\'m not sure I would even follow my own advice if I did. The lure of fame is pretty compelling. But that is my opinion and I\'m sticking to it.
A TC prep race with a four horse field in mid January is pretty much meaningless. They stretched their legs is all. Hopefully noone was hurt. FWIW one website that tracks this stuff looks upon a January prep as a negative.
Jim,
Ok, you\'re not bitter. And I would love to have the money Merv keeps in his right pocket.
I was referring to your comments that inferred people were touting this colt as a TC candidate, as referenced by \"your bet with both hands\" remark regarding future book bets. Nobody mentioned future bets at all, just pointing out that this horse has done nothing wrong to this point. There will only be 1 Derby winner, so knocking any horse at this point isn\'t exactly going out on a limb. Peace Rules and Lion Heart are 2 horses similar to Brother Derek in that they were dismissed as milers yet ran respectable races in the Derby, both finishing 3rd. At this point I wouldn\'t just dismiss this horse.
Looks like the consensus here is that Stevie Wonder Boy takes a rematch with Brother Derek. That rematch is scheduled to be at 8.5 furlongs in the Santa Catalina.
I\'m much less confident SWB is gonna turn the tables there. Brother Derek now owns 3 two turn wins and clearly he wasnt as close to SWB in the Breeders Cup Juvenile as he is now. Was it pace that impacted the B.C. Juvenile loss? Maybe that was part of it. Derek\'s BC Juvenile certainly was better than it appears though. Henny Hughes ran a nice race that day too.
Brother Derek has some extremely sneaky breeding. The family prong that looks weakest is the most interesting to me. Can he go 9 furlongs? On his Past Performances hard to see why he wont. SWB failed to run Derek down at two turns Saturday. A little more pace and a little more fitness will get Stevie up going two turns for sure right? Did anyone calculate their respective closing fractions? If they came home slow where was Stevie?
:)
CtC
Bother Derek is this years Masterful Advocate.........
Write it down.......
Appearances can be deceiving. Lots of horses can seem to be running easily while setting a pretty good pace. While it's true that in the average race the 3rd quarter fraction tends to slow down, a good horse can run a good first half and still throw in a fast 3rd quarter and not pay the price until the final eight (which is what we saw in the San Rafael). I think using the fractions of other route races that day is not a particularly good way to determine track speed because it introduces the confounding variable of how much the horses are being rated in those races.
I find the best way to determine whether a pace was fast, slow or medium for a given race is to compare the time for the first half with the second half. If there's a big difference, the pace was hot and the front-runner probably cooked himself. The other extreme is when there is no difference or the last half is actually faster than the first (rarely seen), which gives the front-runner a big advantage. The best way of doing this is to compare how much faster than even pace the fractions for the half and 3 quarters are, given the final time. In the San Rafael Brother Derek's half and 3 quarter splits were 1.26 and 1.68 seconds respectively faster than even (or ideal) pace for a frontrunner. My research has shown that anything under a second difference is slow and greatly helps the front-runner. Anything much over 2 seconds (haven't worked out the exact number yet) and we have a hot pace with the advantage going to the closer (especially the plodders). Brother Derek's splits were well within the medium range.
To say the San Rafael pace was slow is to do a disservice to both horses. It implies that DB can only win by stealing the race with a slow pace and that SW is a plodder that is doomed by a slow pace. Neither is true since the pace was realistic and the race was decided by ability and trips.
Bob
Chuckles,
Here\'s the final eight splits for both Stevie Wonderboy And Brother Derek.
On the theory that what a horse does to get to the final eigth is just as important as how fast he runs it, I\'m including the fractional breakdowns for the whole race.
BD - 23.48(23.48) - 46.80(23.32) - 1:10.40(23.60) - 1:36.11(25.71)
Final eight - 13.00
SW - 23.88(23.88) - 47.44(23.56) - 1:10.88(23.44) - 1:36.35(25.47)
Final eight - 13.00
Bob
Bob....Your talking Pace here.
NC Tony
Guilty as charged. I talked sbout that 4-letter word. Break out the rack. LOL
Actually I was arguing against the assertation that the alleged \"slow\" pace was a factor in the race. You never know, however, you may someday hear me arguing that pace was a factor in a race.
Bob
Bob,
Im sitting here in Singapore, sweating from the swealtering heat and dieing to come back home. Here on business killing time before trip to Taiwan on Sunday that takes me out of ation through the end of next week. At least we have the internet.
Sorry I took the shot at that 4 letter word.
NC Tony
Sheez SC, I was going to call him this year\'s Personal Hope but you out did me...again.
No prob, Tony. I got the joke.
Since your in Singapore, did you hear about the jockey who got suspended for a whole year there for what essentially seems to be not riding to instructions and losing with a heavy favorite. They don\'t mention any suspected skullduggery. Wow. they sure are strict there.
http://www.sahorseracing.com/columnist.asp?col=6
Bob
Where the Hell have you been?
Staring at the Walls of the New and \"Improved\" Gulfstream.
OK maybe he sticks around longer than both you and I think. This years Harlans Holiday.
Tony,
I\'ve heard it\'s best to abstain from using any four letter words in Singapore because it\'s pretty strict over there. Throw all your gum wrappers in the proper waste paper baskets. And no air-balls... aim well... or you\'ll have to catch the Midnight Express to get back to the U.S.
JChance
SC,
Just haven\'t been posting much, to be honest. I also took a little bit of time off. No Gulfstream for me, I\'m a weekend regular in the Calder Turf Club.
xichibanx
I can\'t believe everyone is so down on Bo Derek. Even though she may not be able to throw a 10 anymore, she\'s still hot for her age.
John-Bob,
What\'e even stranger is that when you go through security they confisgate all of your personal DVD\'s commercial or otherwise due to the fact that pornography is completely illegal, BUT...in every good hotel there are 4-6 professional women at every bar, without issue, so go figure. anywy I did find the Turf club and its is very upscale and lit brilliantly. We could learn a thing or two.
The Gents are very right about it being a tough place....Two weeks ago they \"Hung\"..yes Hung... a young Australian Man for smuggling in less than 20 grams of Marijuana. Now that\'s tough. But as a consequence, you do have no crime, and you have clean streets with such tough law enforcement.
Hmmm....do you thnk the NTRA...nah
NC Tony