While I\'m at it, I have a second question. If we accept that the variant can change dramatically between races, as you advocate and I tend to concur with, isn\'t it just as likely that the variant can be different across the different paths on the track? And I mean different in subtle ways that could affect the figures without constituting a dead rail, for instance. I know that it isn\'t likely that things like wind would affect paths differently, but surely factors such as composition, moisture content, depth, etc. would likely vary by path. If so, the question then becomes, does this variant differential by path more less offset the ground loss in the calculation. I would be interested in how you have sorted this out in your thinking.
The short answer is that the paths can be different, and we cover that to some degree in \"Changing Track Speeds\" (archives section), and I also addressed it at the DRF Expo. Bottom line-- there is not enough data to do variants for separate paths, given that the track itself may be changing, and the horse change lanes. But in the end, even if it is not perfect, you are better off knowing how far the horses ran than not knowing.
TGJB,
\"The short answer is that the paths can be different, and we cover that to some degree in \"Changing Track Speeds\" (archives section), and I also addressed it at the DRF Expo. Bottom line-- there is not enough data to do variants for separate paths, given that the track itself may be changing, and the horse change lanes. But in the end, even if it is not perfect, you are better off knowing how far the horses ran than not knowing.\"
Regarding days when the inside is dead.
I\'m starting to come around to the same view as long as in the figure making process the horses on the outside (good paths) are getting their typical figures and the horses are on the inside (worse paths) are getting lower than their typical figures because they are on the worse paths.
The danger is that you don\'t recognize that the outside is a little better than the inside and you wind up giving the horses on the inside their typical figures and the horses on the outside faster than usual figures because they lost ground. (or somewhere in between)
It could get tricky.
I\'ve even seen days where I thought there was no advantage or disadvantage. In other words, the disadvantage of ground loss was almost exactly offset by being in the better path.