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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on October 29, 2005, 05:22:32 PM

Title: Condolences
Post by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 on October 29, 2005, 05:22:32 PM
Super Frolic broke poorly and then was on a part of the track that probably wasn\'t ideal.

I think with better luck he could have won that race.
Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: spa on October 29, 2005, 05:25:19 PM
Chuckles...Super Frolic wouldn\'t win if you multiplied has TG\'s by the speed of light.....nice to hear from you, again....
Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: jimbo66 on October 29, 2005, 05:41:54 PM
About 10% of a 5 million dollar purse.  I doubt that condolences are necessary.  Ro Parra and Jerry will probably be pretty happy with that.

You can make the case for 3rd with a different trip, but it looked to me that Flower Alley and Saint Liam were a solid 2nd and 1st respectively.

I am wondering if Jerry\'s anti-Perfect Drift bias stopped him from hitting a superfecta that was pretty playable from a \"Thorograph\" point of view.  

12k with the favorite on top was a good price I thought.  Still wondering what would it would have paid if Flower Alley was on top.  Halfway through the stretch, I thought Saint Liam might hang......



Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: kev on October 29, 2005, 06:40:31 PM
4th place paid $266,000 not bad at all, old Suave ran 5th. Hell I didn\'t know that was Super F. that ran 4th anyways, I saw PD coming flying and though the other horse was Borrego he didn\'t run very well. My tops picks paid 11.00 and 13.10, I should have just bet all of those and not all them pick 3\'s I played. I did play my top picks also, but it wasn\'t enough to overcome the cost of those ticket\'s. That\'s one thing that is good about sheet reading for me that is, to see false fav\'s or low price horses. I left out Ashao-Happy Ticket-O.Board ( even though she ran 2nd ) Borrego-Shakeespeare-Megahertz-First S., I did leave out Folfore and she beat me, I was so close of tossing LITF but I left him in. After all that I still didn\'t hit none of the pick 3\'s. Oh well the greatest track in the world is opening up tom. ( CD ) let\'s get some of that money back.
Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on October 29, 2005, 08:43:24 PM
Jimbo,

I have the exacta and need SF for the tri\'s..I actualy ran down 13/9 with 7 all/all and 13/9 all/all 7..... had that exacta as once dutrow horse won earlier it was lights out. All the value players back wheeled St Liam in the Pic 3 no way a $60 $18 and $6 P3 pays that low with out some serious back wheeling going on.

NC Tony
Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: catherine on October 30, 2005, 06:45:05 AM
Jimbo;

\"You can make a case for 3rd with a different trip\"??? (He lost 3rd by a neck).

I couldn\'t see how bad the stumble out of the gate was (Jerry, please weigh in), but based on where SF was at the start of the backstretch, I\'d say he lost 2-3 lengths easy. SF then made a big move on the turn and had to wait for an opening at the top of the stretch. Without either bit of trouble SF beats PD and without both he\'s in the exacta.

I think this falls into the \"Condolences and Congratulations\" camp. Helluva purchase JB! Congrats to you and Mr Parra.

Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: jimbo66 on October 30, 2005, 07:33:38 AM
Catherine,

In a 13 horse field, horses are going to lose lengths.  I didn\'t see the start for Super Frolic, so I don\'t know what happened there.  A half mile into the race, it looked pretty obvious to me that Saint Liam and Flower Alley had a pretty good chance of running 1-2 or 2-1.  The pace was slow, FA got a nice trip and Saint Liam settled nicely after a bit of a bad start.  Super Frolic is not as fast as either horse on their best.  I didn\'t see the trip Perfect Drift got either and don\'t know how much ground he lost.  

Super Frolic didn\'t lose any ground on the turn, which was a positive, although it was somewhat offset by the fact that the inside part of the track was not the place to be.  Not sure if it classified as a \"dead rail\" for more of a \"slight bias\", we will see when TGJB does the figs.  

Personally, I would loved to have seen SF run second.  That 12k super would probably have 20k or more with him in the 2nd slot at 70-1, I just didn\'t see it that way.  It\'s gonna be hard to get an unbiased opinion out of Jerry on this one though, as he certainly has a vested interest in the horse winning!

Congrats to JB and Ro on a helluva buy.  Another couple hundred grand on top of the Hawthorne score, is a pretty quick turnaround on their money.  Gotta believe the horse is already in the \"black\".  

I guess that the finished of Perfect Drift and SUper Frolic proved the figs for the Hawthorne race were solid, which was questioned by more than a few on this board (myself included....)

Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: ronwar on October 30, 2005, 09:11:11 AM
I\'ll except those condolences...If he gets up for third, I destroy the super! As they say it would have been pizza and beer for months.
Title: Re: Condolences
Post by: catherine on October 30, 2005, 10:36:04 AM
Jimbo;

I was just going off the chart (Equibase says SF stumbled badly at the start), which explains why SF was 8-10 lengths off the lead at the start of the backstretch instead of much closer to the first flight, which I would have expected with his speed and 7 post. Granted, SF did get a rail trip otherwise. If the rail was dead, then SF ran even better than I thought. Regardless, my point was that the SF would have passed PD\'s neck and nose with only a slightly better trip. I didn\'t follow PD in the replay, but the chart does not indicate he had anywhere near the trouble SF did.

I was asking Jerry about the start because it didn\'t seem like anyone else here especially noticed it. Of course, I has SF to win and under SL in the exacta, so I may have a little bias going myself.

BTW, this is Bob (magicnight), using the wife\'s PC while out of town. Take care!