Really looking forward to it this year. I\'ll probably get creamed!
Short-priced throwouts - Folklore, First Samauri, Ouija Board, Lost in the Fog, Leroidesanimaux, Rock Hard Ten...
Also some nice throwouts in the 4-1 -- 6-1 range. Happy Ticket, Henny Hughes, probably Borrego...
I\'m going to try to lay off looking at it anymore till after the draw...
Good luck.
HP
RHT would go in your middle Group as St. Liam will be around 2-1 in that race.
NCT
Ouija Board for me, she has not been very good at all this year, not the same horse in my opinion.
I\'m sure we will read that Ouija Board was being aimed for the BC, etc., and she could run her race and win, but why take a short price on a horse that isn\'t really the fastest one in the race?
As a second thought, I\'m trying to make notes this year on FIRST impressions, and at FIRST glance two of the older turf horses jumped out at me. Riskaverse and Better Talk Now were both managed a little differently this year (spacing and number of races). Better Talk Now ran great his last two (ahead of where he was last year at that time) and posted a new top in last year\'s BC off an identical break (yl/sf turf should be fine). Riskaverse ran a new top last out, which is a bit of a concern, but I\'m thinking with the lighter campaign and the month break she could get pretty close to it again.
HP
I have Happy Ticket as a must-use in the 7-1 -- 10-1 range; I can stare at her TG and watch the Beldame over and over again (though it will not match the impression left after seeing it live... cmon people, I wasn\'t the only one there) and I can\'t find the knocks. Maybe she will get more attention now but with Ashado, Jayne, and the George/Mott/Bailey filly in the race how can Happy even be close to 4-1?
Ashado is my biggest throw out for the day. I\'m going to toss Lost in the Fog, these are for pick 4\'s.
Just think of what the pick 4 will pay if you could get someone like LITF to not win. Maybe even the pick 3 if you beat LITF and Ashado, what would that thing pay??
Happy Ticket ran well last out but I don\'t like her off the pair of tops. Also, she has spent most of her career running shorter...so I think the last race may have even more of a negative impact.
I think the toughest race on the card to get a grip on is the Juvenile Colts. And if St. Liam isn\'t really ready to rock I think it could be one of the all-time mega-tote-busting Classics. It\'s only Monday! HP
HP:
Spend your time worrying about all of the other races besides the two Juveniles.
Both 2 year old races should be won by the favorite or second favorite as those horses have developed more than anyone else. (Not Adieu, but Sensation).
All of the other races have favorites that could easily be beaten because the turf is going to be yielding at best and the ability of some of the dirt favorites to win against this competition is suspect.
Your comments about Happy Ticket represent the reasonable downside to that horse.
My analysis of the distaff revolves around pace. Before the defection of Pampered Princess, I could see a hot pace. I still see one to some degree.
This is a race that will hinge on post position. One the posts are known, I think the Distaff, Sprint and Mile become easier to handicap.
Scottv,
Two things.
1. Sensation won\'t be the 1st or 2nd favorite. She will be value.
2. Like anybody who is using Tgraph, I think Sensation has a good shot, but it isn\'t because she has \"developed the most\". She actually hasn\'t developed AT ALL. She ran a 2 first out, got back to it last time. If she pairs up, she likely wins.
Jimbo,
Sensation was one of my first throwouts, at least on top. HP
\"Both 2 year old races should be won by the favorite or second favorite as those horses have developed more than anyone else.\"
My thinking is exactly the opposite. I\'m looking for the horse that hasn\'t really \"popped\" yet. HP
HP,
Interested to hear why you would consider Sensation one of your first throwouts.
She fires big first time out. Bounces significantly in her next race. Improves in her next, pointing her forward, back towards her top. She delivers on that and pairs up her top.
Yes, you could argue that she bounced last time and might bounce again, and if she was 2-1 or 5-2, I would bet against her.
But she will be 5-1 or better and has two races that are faster than anybody else in here, except for Folklore (who has one fast race).
At a reasonable price, that makes her very playable to me.
Jim
Unless I am looking at this wrong, she degressed in her third race also and ran back to her top in her fourth race...
You could also argue that Sensation just didn\'t like Saratoga as she didn\'t run all that well at Saratoga. She got back to Belmont, where she ran her top and runs huge again.....
This would be a much more interesting topic if some of you could explain WHY you feel these are short priced throwouts. Anybody can show up and say I don\'t like this favorite or that one.
She fired big, and then ran two bad ones off that... Look at it again. She\'s stretching out for the first time off a top. I won\'t quibble over the odds line... Not for me. If the price was GREAT, could she hang around for a piece underneath in tri/supe-land? Maybe. HP
P-DUB,
Just ask about whichever one you want. I can\'t really write the whole explanation of each one right now in between work. Sorry. HP
You are right P-Dub, lists without any reasoning aren\'t worth much.
Here is my list of short priced \"bet againsts\".
1. Ouija Board is #1 on this list. She was not the best horse last year, but rather got the best trip. The win enhanced her already overblown reputation (her numbers are not that fast). Now, this year, she has had a spotty campaign and by her own connections admission, she may not be the horse she was last year. I would liked to have bet against \"the horse she was last year\", betting against a lesser version at a very short price, make betting against Ouija Board, the best betting opportunity of the day (IMHO) The \"livest\" contenders in my mind are Wonder Again and Wend. WA ran her usual decent race last time, but has actually run several faster earlier in the year. Wend got a nice figure despite an awful break. The horse has tactical speed and with a clean break could sit a trip and has \"number power\". She is lightly raced enough that she could move forward here, while others likely cannot. (she might not even need a forward move to win, if she draws inside and breaks clean though)
2. I don\'t think Adeiu will be first choice, but will probably be 2nd choice or at least take money. She is slow. She is running 7\'s on Tgraph, while Folklore and Sensation can run 2\'s. Gotta best against Adeiu in all slots.
Those first two are \"throwouts\" for me. All the way out of the top 4 slots in the exotics.
There are other favorites who you can bet against for value reasons, but they don\'t classify as \"throw outs\".
1. Lost in the Fog. As previously stated, the horse is very consistent, the race lacks much early zip, and it will surprise nobody if this guy wins. But at 6-5 or possibly less, in a 12 horse race in which he is NOT the fastest horse, you can bet against him. I think the horses to bet are Wildcat Heir and Battle Won. WH has that negative 5, although he has fitness issues. BW has 4 races in the negative 2 and change range. Ran well last time turf to dirt, and if he draws inside has enough early gas to get a \"Speightstown\" type of trip.
2. Leriodesanimaux. I know I am contradicting an earlier post I made after the Atto Mile, when I said I wouldn\'t keep throwing money against this horse, but I might one more time if the turf is not soft. Artie Schiller has two races that fit nicely here and are faster than all of Leroidesanimaux\'s races, except the Atto Mile. The fact that the Atto Mile was so fast, combined with Frankel\'s poor record in the Breeders Cup, and the likely very short price of Leriodes, I think you can justify a bet against him. Artie at 8-1 or so, without an outside post, with good turf, is a bet for me.
3. Ashado. Tougher to bet against a horse that has so many numbers that win the Distaff this year. I just don\'t like the pattern of the awful race at Saratoga, followed back by another really fast race last time, where she seemed to be getting leg weary at the end. The pace scenario will not be in her favor in the Distaff, as Healthy Addiction, STellar Jayne and Yolanda B Too, all have speed. She likely won\'t be sitting off a collapsing pace setter through moderate fractions. I think that with the honest pace scenario, we will see Society Selection\'s best race this time. I know she hasn\'t put up the big number yet that wins this and betting her to run a new top after 18 starts is not brilliant betting, but I think she might. She likes Belmont and will be flying at the end, if she can get the right trip. It could be like the Alabama of last year, a fresh Society Selection runs down Stellar Jayne and Ashado, after they duel each other into defeat.
There is no \"favorite\" to bet against in the Turf, so no comment there. In the Juvenile, you have to respect the favorite and there is no compelling reason to bet against the favorite off the three straight 1\'s. The only reason I might bet is if Henny Hughes\' price is very attractive, relative to First Samurai. I don\'t think there is much between them, in fact, HH has the fastest race of the two. He was compromised by the pace moreso in his last also. I see 8-5 on First Samuria offshore and 5-1 on Henny Hughes. If that holds up on race day, Henny Hughes would be worth a bet IMO. As for the Classic, if Saint Liam draws outside, it could be tough. But I don\'t necessarily believe the 1 1/4 was the problem with the Santa Anita race, so this race being 1 1/4 is not what will beat him, IMO. I also agree with the poster who said that RHT and SL might be co-favorites. That is not the price that is available offshore right now, RHT is 3-1 and SL is 8-5, but I find very few people who like SL, so I can see them both around 2-1. The classic is either a race to try a complete bomb or to single SL in the pick-4 IMO.
Good luck
Jimbo
The BC \"win enhanced her already overblown reputation.\" What? The Filly has won 6 of her 10 starts, 9 ITM finishes only off the board finish was a G1 against colts. Finish 3rd in the ARC last year. Heck, last year she should have taken on the boys in the Turf. Overblown reputation, come on.
That being said is she the same Filly; maybe not, but she not a toss!
Almost wrote exactly the same post, Wrongly. I hope this backlash against Ouija Board continues...with any luck, she won\'t even be the favorite! OK, she picked up 5 pounds in last year\'s race that she won\'t be getting this time, and I know that is worth about 1.5 points. But I urge all the doubters to look at the video of her race in last year\'s BC...she swung 3-4w around the far turn, and disposed of Film Maker quite easily. (Also notice how Wonder Again hangs, and fails to get by Film Maker.) Does anyone here really believe if she was carrying 123 instead of 118 that she wouldn\'t have won anyway?
As Dunlop said, \"Maybe not the same filly\", but definitely not a throwout.
Wrongly-- I think you just made Jimbo\'s point, which is that her accomplishments and therefore reputation exceed her ability, as measured by figures.
I haven\'t watched the replay of her last race yet, but I think you have to be skeptical of a horse when they are getting bet based on performances that occurred last year. She didn\'t come back very well and that last was against much weaker. It\'s a leap to simply assume she\'s the same horse. She hasn\'t demonstrated it yet. As the favorite, that probably makes her a bet against. At a big price, you start noticing things like she was only a 3YO last year and could be better. :-)
As far as judging Euros on TG figs, I have relatively low confidence. Sacrilige to say this... oh well. I could fill a binder with the sheets of supposedly slower Euro horses who have won and/or run well in BC races as well as Graded races around the country. Just like Beyer had no success making figs on Australian racing, I don\'t think you can use the method TG or any other fig makin services utilizes in American racing and apply it to Euro racing. It\'s slamming a square into a circle. The racing is just too different.
Anyone remember Domedriver, L\'Ancresse, Six Perfections, Antonius Pius, etc? Ouija Board has had physical issues this year, but certainly ran a huge race last out and appears to be right. She threw a 114+ TF at 12f and ran away from a 13 horse field. She\'d never ship if not 100% and on her best, she smokes these horses, just like last year. I don\'t think for one second she\'s going to be short odds, not with Intercontinental, Megahertz, and Wonder Again. Beware.
EZ-- give me some examples from the last couple of years of European horses who ran more than a point or so different numbers here than we gave them in Europe. I\'m not talking about lightly raced ones-- show me stake horses.
Wrongly and DLF,
I assume you use figures, since you are on this board. Ouija Board has done all those things you said, and her top is a \"3\". Her two races this are a 15 and a 4.5.
Wonder Again has several races in the 1.5 range. Wend has tactical speed and got back to her 2.5 top last time. Like I said, you can make a case for a move forward, but a pairup with a trip might win. Wend is 10-1 or more, most likely.
And \"yes\", I really believe that Oiuja Board did not run the fastest race in last year\'s F&M turf. She was visually impressive, but with the weight and great ride she got from Fallon, she didn\'t get the best figure.
How many times do we get to bet a 14 horse field, where a horse who will be heavy favorite (3-2 or so) HAS NOT RUN A RACE THIS YEAR THAT WILL WIN? Her lifetime best is probably not enough either. Oiuja Board needs a new top to win.
I stand by my original post, betting against Oiuja Board is the best betting opportunity of the day.
Ezgoer,
Ouija Board is a best price 8-5 right now in the futures book. You don\'t think she is going to be a short price? What is your definition of a short price?
In a 14 horse field, Ouija Board will not be more than 2-1 and probably closer to 3-2.
Intercontinental is not going to draw money in this race. The horse is 15-1 right now everywhere. Wonder Again will probably be 6-1 or so, with a decent post.
Megahertz will draw money and will be the likely second choice, but she is a bet against also. She has a couple of 2.5 races, but you know she will lose ground in this race, dropping back to last. With all the races she has had, she isn\'t likely to run a new top as a 6 year old. So, on her best, she is as fast as Wend, Wend is a lightly raced 4 year old with tactical speed and will be about three times the price.
jimbo,
Please stop making the case for Wend being a good value. Thank you. :-)
TJGB: OK, Jerry, I\'ll bite...here are some examples:
Six Perfections: Previous European Top: 5 First U.S. Start: 2 1/4
Powerscourt: Previous Euro Top: 2 1/4 First U.S. Start: -0.5
Magistretti: Previous Euro Top: 4 First U.S. Start: 1.5
L\'Ancresse: Previous Euro Top: 6 1/4 First U.S. Start: 3.5
Storming Home: Previous Euro Top: 2 First U.S. Start: 0
Domedriver: Previous Euro Top: 3.5 First U.S. Start: 2
Rock of Gib: Previous Euro Top: 2.75 First U.S. Start: 0.5
Now I know some of these were 3 year olds who may have been improving anyway (6 Perfections, Rock), and they probably all got Lasix, but I think this is what E-Z Goer (and I, for that matter) are suspicious about. I\'m not claiming to know anything about making figures...I purchase your product, and for the most part, am happy with it. But I do see things which make me raise my eyebrows.
Again, I\'m no expert (been handicapping for less than 10 years), but what about last year\'s BC F&M Turf? You gave Ouija and WA the same fig....WA\'s trip was not that bad (watch the replay, don\'t read the charts), and Ouija was wide on the far turn. I believe that, according to TG, the 5 LB allowance Ouija received is worth about 3-4 lengths at the distance. In the actual race, Ouija finished less than 2 lengths in front of WA. If my interpretation of the TG numbers (beaten lengths vs. points vs. weight) is correct, at equal weights, WA would have beaten Ouija by 1-2 lengths according to TG dogma, no?
It just seems overyly dogmatic and implausible to me that 5 LBs of weight was the difference between Ouija winning by 2 and losing by 2.
Alright Class,
I will shut my mouth, but don\'t worry, nobody is listening and those that are, disagree with me.
i am trying to decide if 13-1 right now, (with the risk of a scratch), is worth betting, or if better will be available on race day.
dlf-- 5 pounds= 1 point = 2 lengths at 1 1/4 miles, not 3-4 lengths.
Several of those horses were from more than 2 years ago, and we have adjusted what we are doing since then. Give me a list of ALL the Euros who ran in the BC in 03 and 04, and we\'ll post a file with the numbers they had coming in and what they ran. They were unbelievably accurate last year, by memory.
Powerscourt-- you look at his form with and without lasix and think he should be getting the same numbers?
And yes, some improve, especially the young ones, and especially since so many are first time lasix-- but what we find (and what you will see just by looking at the pre-entry sheets of ones that have already run there and here, like Flip Flop, Karen\'s Caper, Luas Line, Mona Lisa, Ouija Board, Sundrop, Funfair, Ace), is that those figures hold up VERY well.
jimbo,
I took the 13-1 about 5 minutes ago (small wager). :-) A few others too. I tried to put one bet in and the odds dropped by a bunch just before I submitted it! DARN
There are some interesting horse matchups also.
Fair enough, Jerry. I stand corrected on the weight vs. beaten lengths vs. points. I told you I was no expert! Sorry to misrepresent your methodology on your board...I know that understandably irks you.
Now just one last thing: According to your methodology, if Ouija had been carrying 123 or WA was carrying 118 in last years BC F&M, ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, WA wins by 1/4 length. I still have a hard time accepting this. I guess my question to you is: Do you accept it?
dlf-- yes, I think it would have made a 2 length difference.
JB
List of Euro\'s starting in BC, some of these had a start or two in the US before the BC.
F&M Turf
2003 - Yesterday, Islington, Mezzo Soprano, L\'Ancresse,Musical Chimes
2004 - Aubonne, Ouija Board,Yesterday
Mile
2003 - Refuse to Bend, Oasis Dream, Six Perfections
2004 - Antonius Pius, Blackdoun, Diamond Green, Six Perfections, Whipper
Turf
2003 - Bright Sky, High Chaparral, Sulamani, Falbrav
2004 - Powerscourt, Magistretti.
Jimbo good luck with that Wonder Again thing, she was 5-1 last year probably goes off around the same this year.
Wrongly,
She was almost 11-1 last year, actually 10.70 to 1. She drew the outside post in that race, which I decided to overlook, because I thought she had tactical speed. It seems she only shows that tactical speed when the turf is soft, based on her PP.
She was beatn 1 3/4 lenghts, after sitting last through a 1:18.2 three quarter fraction. The turf was yeilding, but not THAT yielding. Before the race last year, there was reason to suspect that Ouija Board would be the one sitting far off the slow pace and forced wide, having come out of races in Europe with very slow paces and her sitting very far back. However, Fallon gave the horse a great ride. Dlf mentions her swinging very wide, she did not swing wide before the turn, she swung wide after she was mostly through the turn. She was the equivalent of 2w on the turn.
PP Draw will be important in this race. Yes, there is plenty of time to get over and inside with a relatively long run to the first turn, but there is very little speed in the race outside of Intercontinental, so you want to swing over and sit maybe 4th or so. If Wonder Again draws a double digit post, she won\'t have my money on her this time.
Jimbo:
Good analysis. The latest weather report I\'ve seen calls for a chance of nearly 2 inches of rain over the next 48 hrs, making it unlikely that the turf courses will be any better than \"good\", with a chance for a soft or yielding course. Of course we know what this does for Wonder Again. Frankel\'s pair have certainly accomplished more over firm ground. Before I realized that Ouija was being ridden by JDB, I thought she would be 8/5 and Wonder Again 5/2.
Given a softer turf and the riding assignments, the post time odds IMO could be Ouija \"Even\", WA 2/1.
In the Juvenile, a friend of mine who I feel has a good eye told me that Henny\'s work Friday (4f, 47.14 b) was very impressive. I\'m not sold.
HH is the only colt to have run faster than First Samurai. Agreed. In the 2 races they were loaded into the same gate, First Sam handled HH. Easily. Now FS adds Lasix. HH goes to a trainer who is having a very tough time at Bel, Spring and Fall, 2005.
I don\'t think FS has had to run hard yet. If he doesn\'t react poorly to Lasix, I am very confident that he will move forward and win. Right now my \"trotter punch\" (favorite in, second fave out) would be First Sam over all of the \"S\" horses.. Sorcerer, Stevie Wonder, Stream Cat, Superfly, and the Euro,
Set Alight in EXs and TRIs
Richiebee,
Tough call on Henny Hughes. I agree it might get you value to throw him out. The cold trainer and 1 1/16 might not be his best distance. He could be a pure sprinter. First Samurai is a legit favorite. He is consistent and fast.
As for your forecast of the odds in the F&M turf, \"not a snowball\'s chance in hell\". There are 14 horses in the race. We won\'\'t see 6-5 and 2-1. You will get value on Wonder Again, as long as you consider 5-1 or so, value. With that many entries, the math doesn\'t work, with multiple short prices. On the odds line I put together for the race, Ouija Board is 3-2, Megahertz 5-1, Wonder Again 6-1 and the rest double digits. I will adjust it after the PP draw and for the turf condition, but my point is that with so many horses and one horse who will definitely be 2-1 or less (OB), the others have to be decent prices. The takeout is bad enough, don\'t make it out to be even worse!!
Here they are.
Jimbo:
I will be using her in multiple race wagers, so I hope you are correct.
Jimbo, in your discussion of the Sprint, you agreed that Wildcat Heir and Battle Won were possible victors over LITF. But if not Pomeroy or Silver Train, who will do the dirty work on the front end?
You may be underestimating the Tabor factor. As he looks at his assets in this race, he has to be thinking his best chance is to send Pomeroy, fast as he can, far as he can, and hope Lion Tamer is in a position to pick up the pieces.
Someone characterized Pomeroy as a Saratoga horse. That\'s not accurate. He shows 3 blowout wins at Monmouth, broke his maiden over a sloppy Belmont track, and won a 1 1/16 stake at pre poly Turfway.
Your depiction of a speedy horse showing less and less lick out of the gate is absolutely correct, but with Pomeroy it has only been one such incident. I might want too see another before I draw a conclusion.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------
> I don\'t think FS has had to run hard yet. If
> he doesn\'t react poorly to Lasix, I am very
> confident that he will move forward and win.
richie..
This weekend\'s work by Sam was with Lasix. He reacted really well to it and JB said he was as aggressive as can be.
Richiebee,
i don\'t think anybody has to do the dirty work on the front end. Both Wildcat Heir and Battle Won are stalkers, they each can sit right off a sharp pace. Wildcat HEir, on his best is faster than LITF. Battle Won is about as fast and has been tested. I think they could just be better than LITF right now ane definitely \"bette gambles\", than LITF.
If I was looking for a suicidal pace duel that melts down LITF, I wouldn\'t be looking at WH or BW, because they are both quick and would also be knocked out in that scenario. I guess I would look at Lion Tamer or Taste of Paradise in that scenario. Each has a race or two fast enough to win here and they will both be far off the pace here.
But I don\'t see a hot pace. Silver train is not that quick and Pomeroy has shown the kind of gas it takes to lead the sprint, one time. I understand the Tabor thing, but I don\'t make bets based on those angles. Too suspect.
Jimbo, you are one heck of a poster and analyzer. A few things.
Take the 13-1 on Wend. Everything I read or hear from a so-called expert has been tabbing both Wend and Wonder Again.
I am no expert on workouts, but according to DRF workout analysis today (have yet to watch the WORKS from TVG earlier today) Wend did not handle the softish turf as well as Wonder Again. Than again, who does?
I have not had this much trouble identifying pace in big races as I have when looking at the pre-entries. Where is the pace in the Sprint?! I guess Battle Won could go to the front if nobody else wants it, but it sure seems like Lost in the Fog to the front in :22 and :44 again (depending on souped up track or not) and seeing if someone can look him in the eye and pass him coming off the turn. He has already shown heart shrugging off EggHead at 7 furlongs which I believe is 1 furlong beyond his optimum, so whoever wins, as has been said, will have to EARN it. How about Elusive Jazz as usable?
Speaking of no pace, how about the Classic? There is zero pace in here. After reading of Flower Alley\'s rank workout today going faster early than late, he could be your pacesetter. If I were Dutrow, with the absense of pace, wouldnt Saint Liams chances be best either on the lead or right off of it? How about this possible pedestrian early speed benefitting a sneaky stalker, ala Suave?
A note on Artie Schiller to all. I talked with a reporter from the local paper (I live in the Saratoga/Albany NY area) who talks with Migliore very often, and he asked why Artie has been so keen early and on the pace this year instead of closing from the back with his old electrifying rush. Richards answer was that Artie had been much tougher to handle in all aspects this year and has been very headstrong and studdish all around. So maybe taking him further off the pace has not been an option to Richie. Will Garret make a difference?
Intercontinental is going to be double digit odds? She is undoubtedly the best F&M miler in this country. Her full sister is Banks Hill who never raced more than a mile before destroying everyone by 5 or 6 lengths at 10f.
She\'s the fastest horse who is going to be on the rail and losing no ground on the lead.
Hey Ya\'ll-
I know the turf was listed as fast at Kee last race for both Wend and intercontinental, but we all know the turf was ultra soft. So who say\'s wend can\'t handle the off going? Same for Intercontinental for that matter.
NC Tony
NCT,
Interesting point...and I\'m glad you made it because I live about 1 mile from Belmont and it has been pouring for the last few hours. It\'s started raining about 30 seconds after I put my future bet in on her. :-)
Intercontinental has one race in America on non firm turf.
She was beaten 11 lengths by Wonder Again at Sara 7/31/04 on a yielding course.
Good night, gents. Going to watch football.
Please refer back to my post about Domingueez and Jocks discusion at the Lexington Airport two weeks ago.
Remember Wend also broke very slow and spotted the feild a couple lenghts at the start in a mile race, and if you watch the run out on replay he blows by Intercontinental past the wire.
I\'m all over Wend in this race.
NC Tony
Richie,
Please watch the race on replay and watch for the chuncks of turf kicked up at KEE that weekend. I talked to 4 jockeys in the airport that night about the condition of the surface. TG has rated the rail dead becuase it was SOFT. Believe what you want. Also look at the DRF variant for what thats worth.
NC Tony
i see a fast pace, even for BC standards. richie makes a good point about the tabor factor. he certainly won\'t sacrafice the horse, but pomeroy\'s fastest race by far was right on a :21.3 and :43.4 pace. with lion tamer entered, why not send him? lifestyle should go. interesting horse by the way - got off to an amazing start last year, running two fast 7f races, hitting the 6f pole even faster. if this wasn\'t the BC, and i thought this guy could get loose, i would play him for a big move fwd. pace pressure might be his undoing though. weknow LITF is going, and atilla will be running at a :44 clip. given the pace scenario, i don\'t think LITF is worth the 6/5 he will go off at, and i will be keying a different horse. i think he is a great animal though, and he will be on about 1/3 of my pk4 tickets.
Michael,
I like Battle Won quite a bit in this one,along with Wildcat Heir, with Lion Tamer and Paradise underneath. LITF may be played as a saver in a P4.
NC Tony
Tony,
i think you will get a negative \"2\" out of BW, and dominguez will most likely save ground with him, regardless of post. looking at TP though, he ain\'t going any faster. no margin for error - dominguez has to rate off the speed perfectly, just like bailey did in \'01 with squirtle squirt.
My beliefe is typical winner of Sprint should be between a neg 2 and Neg 3. Do you think he can win? IF not him who else can Run a Neg or Better? I have only Pomeroy,Lion Tamer, Battle Won, LITF, Wildcat Heir and Paradise.
Am I missing anyone ?
NC Tony
OB had a hairline fracture in that first race. In her return race in the Grp III, Frankie D. was gushing what a great horse he had ridden that day. Just a FWIW.
Take a closer look HP, she equalled a top set two yrs ago. Hasn\'t moved an inch forward...
EZGoer,
Intercontinental is NOT the fastest horse., Wonder Again is.
She is around 13-1 now offshore. I am not making the odds up. She is definintely double digits.
I agree with you that she is bettable though. She has run 2 and change a few times and will be on the lead.
For what it is worth, Wend and Wonder Again are on all my pick-4 tickets. Then, Intercontinental and Film Maker on half of them.
Ouija Board on none of them. We\'ll see how that works out.
Jimbo,
I agree with you on this race in particular.I\'m in line with this one. How deep do you think we need to go in the other legs in this Pick 4? I like Sensation,Folklore,(75%) She Say\'s it Best and Knights Templar(25%)- First Sam/Henny Huges/ possibly include both Superfly& Sorcerers Stone in Juvenille / Wend & Wonder Again on 75% of the tickets and /Megagertz& Film Maker/ in FM Turf and the Sprint Im in with Wildcat Heir and Battle won on my primary tickets with Ellusive Jazz and Taste of Paradise on smaller ones. Are there any Single opportunities on the card?
I just need to decide how to play this combination to maximize return vs betting them as equals.
I may pare this down some more.
NC Tony
Tony, I couldn\'t never single on a day like this, but I have two horses that made it easy for me, maybe to only play them and a back-up horse.
Azamour in the turf and Artie S. in the mile. I think they run their races come Sat. The distaff is the deepest I\'m going. Even though I don\'t like Ashado and thinking about about tossing Happy Ticket, there\'s three 3yr old\'s in that race who I\'ll add. In the Gold--Sweet S.--Yolanda--along with maybe 3 other\'s. Society S., S. Jane, and the sixth horse depends on her price could be Happy T.
My tickets will look similar to yours.
In the Juvy Fillies, Sensation and Folklore will be on most tickets. I will use Keenland Kat, Original Spin and She Says it Best on a few tickets.
I will only go two deep in the Juvy, splitting between First Samurai and Henny Hugles.
That is a chalky middle leg, but I am OK with that because neither Ouija Board or Lost in the Fog will be on any of my tickets.
I listed by F&&M Turf strategy already.
In the Sprint, Battle Won and Wildcat Heir on most tickets. The spread tickets will have Lion Tamer, Pomeroy and Taste of Paradise.
I did forget Lion Tamer in the last leg. I feel I must include that one if the pace /post scenario develops. That one was closing well in last off that long layoff.
NC Tony
\"Trainer Bobby Frankel had the front-running Leroidesanimaux break off a half-length in front of his mate and the pair went along as a team through easy splits before finishing up in a rousing 12.58 over the soft going. Lone caveat was that Leroidesanimaux worked with bar shoes in front.\"
Bar shoes?
HP
Apparently, Leroids frogs are sloughing, or peeling.
He will be reshod on Saturday with conventional shoes according to BF
Not to mention that she ran third in the 2004 Arc\' and by all accounts of those on the scene, probably would have won the race with a better trip.
I don\'t know where these clowns come away with the idea that \"she wasn\'t the best horse\" last year but that she simply \"got the best trip\".....Huh?
She was the best bet to win her repsective race on the entire card in last year\'s BC.......PERIOD!
She won under a hand ride like she was out for a morning gallop and I\'ll bet that her connections are still kicking themselves in the ass for not running in the BC turf after they saw how pathetic the \"big\" horses ran in that race.
She may not be the horse she was last year but she probably doesn\'t need to be to win this thing.
Will she be a dead nuts single on all of my serial bet tickets, like she was last year?...No!
Is she a horse that I am going to \"throw out\" just to show all the so called \"experts what a tough guy I am and how bold a stand I can make?....Of course not.
She is a horse who is a legitimate top contender to win the race, especially with JB picking up the mount. Respect should be afforded her, especially in the serials.
Of course you don\'t bet her to win at 6-5 but you don\'t beat yourself by being to stubborn to acknowledge her talents.
LasVegas Horseplayer,
You are probably on the wrong board. This is the thorograph board. Ouija Board didn\'t get the best figure last year in the race and doesn\'t have the fastest figs coming into this race. Those of us that bet figs, realize she is a bet against as the favorite in a 14 horse field.
If that makes me a \"clown\" in your book, I will live with it.
Good luck with your gambling, you will need it.
You raise a good point, as my attitude on \"throwouts\" in general is a little different when it comes to pick 3\'s, etc. I don\'t intend to do too much on this front, and I concentrate mostly on exactas and tris... HP
The downside of Wend may not be the off going. I think the problem with Wend is she\'s coming in on short rest off a top, and stretching out a little to boot. HP
Wend is lightly raced and came into that last race off a 2 month layoff.
I don\'t think that the 20 day rest or the distance of 1 1/4 will be an issue.
JAKE,
I see that too. You could do worse at 12-1 in there I suppose. HP
A mile is too short for her, so I am not worried about the stretchout. The softgoing as I\'ve heard on TVG is based on one outing in A/P. The going at keeland was soft despite how the track was listed that day.
NC Tony
NCT,
\"The softgoing as I\'ve heard on TVG is based on one outing in A/P.\"
That\'s true, but that race can\'t be viewed as a positive thing. The rain has me worried. That may go double because some comments were made about about the way she handled a soft turf in a recent workout.
Mott has all but told you \"don\'t bet\" if turf is anything but good-firm for WEND.
Ditto O\'Brien for MONA LISA. The more I look for something in here, the more I end up thinking what a huge advantage WONDER AGAIN has at Belmont with the turf on the good-soft side.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I think there may be some value leaving Henny Hughes out of the exotics. He looks more like a sprinter to me. He ran well at 1M in the Champagne, but that pace was not as fast as it looks (it was fast, but it was wind aided) and I thought the track was carrying speed pretty well that day. Personally, I can\'t see how he improves off that effort while stretching out another 1/16th. I think someone will move forward past him.
The one thing that he has going for him is that this race usually has a few cheap speedy sprinters in it and this one doesn\'t. There\'s plenty of speed to keep the pace honest (no one will loaf with First Samurai in the race), but he may get an easy enough pace to last for a piece. If there was more speed I\'d make a strong play against him being 1st or 2nd.
Very nice post L.V.gamgler
The difference between a handicapper and a gambler is truly shown in this piece
To all you throw-up/throw-out experts...READ HIS POST AGAIN!!!
PARTYpokerON!
A thanks to Delmar Deb for hooking us up with the Euro link.
Just an observation regarding AZAMOUR in the TURF. This guy has a completely different kick on firm....it\'s more confident and powerful. His kick on less than firm was not as strong.
A good to soft turf on Saturday may spell doom for a horse who will be around 3-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The trainer also stated the same thing in a DRF article that I just read. Except below.......
\"I think they are a good team of horses,\" Oxx said. \"Bago ran a good race in the Arc. Motivator was probably a little disappointing in the Arc. Shirocco is a fresh horse. He\'s improved a lot and he could improve a lot. He would like soft ground. Alkaased is a good horse. He\'ll be better suited to 1 1/2 miles.\"
Aside from the competition, Oxx is worried about the potential for wet weather for Azamour.
\"He doesn\'t particularly like soft ground,\" he said. \"We\'re hoping for a dry week. He\'s a very good horse and has been very consistent all his life. He\'s a courageous horse, and he\'s run one good one after another. His only disappointment was his last start.\"
JoeB,
I would like to see the article? Which web sit is that posted on?
NC Tony
I saw the work on TV. Was ok, nothing special.
NC Tony