Pattison Canadian International - Handicapping to find the winner with the mindset that finding value is merely a question of finding the winner is probably the wrong approach . The big picture - the ROI picture is the one and only all important thing that matters - right ? . Really , who cares if you win if you don\'t make ( lot\'s of ) money . In Today\'s Canadian International Strut The Stage is less likely than a couple other horse\'s in that race but his overall chances should put him at , in my morning line , as 2nd or 3rd favorite and not 20-1. Simonas is another who might be a value w/ a back number ran at the track + saves ground . Am I seeing dollar signs or ...
I like what you are trying to do, but Strut the Stage seems like a bit of a reach to me. First, he is 7 years old and this will be his fifth race of the season. He hasn\'t managed this much racing since his 4 year old year. It is 6 races and more than a year since he has seen his top. The 1.75 this year looks like the high water mark of his year. I think there are a lot of horses with very good patterns looking to run big ones today, and I think he is going the wrong direction. If he pairs up his last race (which I think will be tough for him) he is still has a lot to do (remember, at a mile and a half, each point becomes more ground to pick up -- i.e. 1 point might be a length at 6 furlongs but 2 lengths at 12 furlongs). Based on his pattern, I think he is going to regress further. However, at some price he is bettable since he has run numbers good enough in his deep past at this same track. I just do not think 20-1 will be enough compensation.
On Simonas, I think 12-1 is a fair price and worth using.
The other horse who might be a good value is actually Grey Swallow. While his last two races look awful, this is a horse who actually has a powerhouse sheet and the type of European horse who could explode first lasix. He had an absolutely beautiful line up thruogh winning the Irish Derby. His pair up at Leopardstown was not bad (look at the company line). At that point, he was good enough to be 7-1 in a 19 horse Arc de Triomphe as a three year old. His race that day looks like a throw out. Then, his race back at the Curragh to start this campaign looks fabulous. He runs a big new top and beats the horse that WON the Arc (and Azamour to boot). That brings us up to his two last races. He was liked well enough in the Grade 1 King George and Queen Elizabeth to be bet down to 3-1 out of 12 horses and does not fire. Next out (his eighth Grade 1 in a row), he still flubs but not as badly. Significantly, he is second with a furlong to go and weakens. That is a classic sign of a horse who needs lasix. So what does smart Dermot Weld do? He brings the horse to North America for his ninth consecutive Grade 1 run. I think that with the lasix, his overall sheet, that he is still a four year old, and that he looked like he was going to run a good one last out before he probably bled all suggest this horse is going to run a top today. A new top of the type he has run before when he was breaking new ground would be extremely competitive in this race. If the 8-1 is available, I think he is the best value in the race. I think this is the type of situation where you can get surprising value. This is a horse who generally looks like one of the best. He is regularly well bet in Grade 1 company. Then he just throws two bad races (happens all the time). The crowd loses sight of how good the horse really is and overemphasizes those last two races. I have now probably jinxed him, but c\'est la vie
Good points all around , I wound up using Simomas in a 3x box w/ Classic Stamp + Strut as well - took a shot w/ price horse\'s and as the race turned out , it was the thing to do . I just had the wrong horse\'s ...