Looks like you\'re stuck with as tough a card as I\'ve seen for awhile. The biggest difficulty, as I see it, is that there are very few horses which can be keyed with confidence. As a result, the most difficult decision you have to make is whether to play conservatively or swing for the fences. I suggest at least a little of the former, as it\'s the kind of card where good handicapping may not be rewarded at the real or imaginary windows.
That said, my best key of the day is Transcendental in the 4th, which I would consider playable at 2-1 or higher. Second,I think Gygistar & True Direction tower over the field in the 8th, & both are sitting on a big effort. Finally, Beat Hollow & With Anticipation look better than Hap & STS, at least to me.
For contest purposes, I\'d bet $300 on Trans to win, a $250 exacta Gyg over TD, a $150 exacta TD over Gyg, a $20 tri key Beat with WA,Hap,STS, a $20 tri key WA with BH,Hap,STS, & a $60 st exacta BH over WA.
Mall wrote:
>
> Looks like you\'re stuck with as tough a card as I\'ve seen for
> awhile. The biggest difficulty, as I see it, is that there
> are very few horses which can be keyed with confidence. As a
> result, the most difficult decision you have to make is
> whether to play conservatively or swing for the fences. I
> suggest at least a little of the former, as it\'s the kind of
> card where good handicapping may not be rewarded at the real
> or imaginary windows.
>
> That said, my best key of the day is Transcendental in the
> 4th, which I would consider playable at 2-1 or higher.
> Second,I think Gygistar & True Direction tower over the field
> in the 8th, & both are sitting on a big effort. Finally, Beat
> Hollow & With Anticipation look better than Hap & STS, at
> least to me.
>
> For contest purposes, I\'d bet $300 on Trans to win, a $250
> exacta Gyg over TD, a $150 exacta TD over Gyg, a $20 tri key
> Beat with WA,Hap,STS, a $20 tri key WA with BH,Hap,STS, & a
> $60 st exacta BH over WA.
TG--This definitely confirms that you don\'t believe in the bounce theory. I can\'t believe you guys are letting that guy play parlays.
I agree with JB. No parlays - it is a flat $1,000 in betting funds with all scratches returned to the bankroll. I have never seen a contest with parlays and I don\'t suggest we start now.
But the research indicates that horses do not bounce anywhere near as often as many people believe, particularly horses which fall into certain categories.
In light of what was said before & the way some entries read, the rule on scratches is unclear, at least to me. As with everything else, I\'ll abide by HP/DP\'s final decision.
In the event revisions after scratches are permitted, I\'ll transfer $150 of what I had on Trans to the Gyg over TD exacta, & the remaining $150 to st $50 exactas Beat Hollow over WA,Hap,STS.