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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: scottv on October 18, 2005, 04:19:16 PM

Title: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: scottv on October 18, 2005, 04:19:16 PM
Anyone agree with me that this year\'s classic has the look of
\"it can\'t be this easy\" written all over it?  Wondering if longshot can win?

St. Liam--7 weeks rest, he\'s on the lead, but can he get 1 1/4? does he drift out?

RHTen--  Can he ship and run on a east coast track?

Borrego-- Happy Ticket appeared to have run faster, was his last race an illusion?  Will he have pace?

PDrift---  Too inconsistent to like?

Suave--- Too slow

Shackleton-- No pace, maybe too slow?

Choct Nation--- Rallies Wide, closer like many others

Bago?-  

See what I mean, I don\'t really like any of these horses.  Someone give me a reason to like a horse that i can\'t see!!!!!!

Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: kev on October 18, 2005, 04:30:07 PM
SUAVE........got back to his life time top in his last and could be sitting on a big one.....also he\'ll be about 30-1. I\'ll have to wait and see the TG number\'s tom. night and get some kind of feel for it.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: congaree1 on October 18, 2005, 05:38:13 PM
Tough to get serious about any off them, i do believe they all stink besides St. Liam. Rock Hard Ten has never beat any good horse and Borrego was very slow in the JCGC. But somebody has to win it. Flower Alley has never beat a good horse, but if you can pass on his last maybe he has a shot.

Con
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: kev on October 18, 2005, 06:12:58 PM
You know you could say VOLPONI never beat anyone good, I say what\'s that have to do with anything. If their fast enough or they look to run the race of their lives bet them if the odds are good for ya. When I bet SWEET TALKER and posted it on here before the race on Sat at KEE, I didn\'t look at her PP\'s at all to see who she was running against. By saying Borrego ran slow, I guess your not buying into the -3.3 that TG gave him in his last??
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: scottv on October 18, 2005, 06:21:58 PM
To clarify, I don\'t see that horse sitting on a \"big\" race.  Again, it\'s much easier to handicap after a race is run, but I\'m trying to make certain there\'s not a horse bein overlooked unduly (by me, of course)  

Flower Alley\'s last race bothers me some, and his running style is the same as Liam and RHTen.  His Beyers are average, I guess. But, if you throw that race out, he\'s got a shot I suppose?

Just looking for something that may not be seen on the PP\'s.

If you like Borrego, don\'t you have to also like Choctaw Nation and RHTen?  

Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: kev on October 18, 2005, 06:26:03 PM
I never said I liked him, if your talking to me. I said on another post about him I think he bounces 2pts off the -3.3, looks like the making of a 0-2-X. Now I wouldn\'t totally toss him.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: NoCarolinaTony on October 18, 2005, 07:25:01 PM
Didn\'t RHT beat Borrego quite a few times in the past?

NC Tony
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: miff on October 19, 2005, 06:51:06 AM
Several trainers remarked that Borrego \"glides\" over Big Sandy.Looking at the replay of his last at Belmont, it is apparent that Borrego moves well here.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: Silver Charm on October 19, 2005, 07:22:46 AM
He loves a mile and a quarter and Saint Liam doesn\'t.

It is as simple as that.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: GAM on October 19, 2005, 10:51:57 AM
kev Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SUAVE........got back to his life time top in his
> last and could be sitting on a big one.....also
> he\'ll be about 30-1. I\'ll have to wait and see the
> TG number\'s tom. night and get some kind of feel
> for it.


So hope you\'re right on this one, Kev, got him at 77-1 a few weeks back.  
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: jbelfior on October 19, 2005, 12:11:11 PM
No way SUAVE will be anything near 30-1.

Weather looks wet in NY (as per Accu-Weather long range) for the end of this week or Monday, then dry through the 29th. I think we have to do our pre-work with less than firm turf in mind.

Looking forward to the Thoro-sheets. I think they are a terrific tool in scoping out live longshots in the Juvenile races. Looking at past BC sheets,the pair-up juveniles (assuming overall pattern is healthy) run very well in the BC.

I may look at a pair of 8\'s down from a 10-12 and get more excited than a Juvenile who already ran a 4-5 in his/her last start.



Good Luck,
Joe B.  
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: P.Eckhart on October 19, 2005, 12:25:24 PM
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No way SUAVE will be anything near 30-1.


If you like him, Pinnacle will lay you a nickel at 35/1.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: GAM on October 19, 2005, 12:30:58 PM
P.Eckhart Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jbelfior Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > No way SUAVE will be anything near 30-1.
>
>
> If you like him, Pinnacle will lay you a nickel at
> 35/1.


That\'s where I got him at 77-1 right before the JCGC.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: jbelfior on October 19, 2005, 01:01:55 PM
I think he\'s got a shot to run a big race. I think he\'s a play at 12/15-1. Maybe I\'m the crazy one.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: P-Dub on October 19, 2005, 01:19:59 PM
St Liam was in the Big Cap field that RHT won.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: jimbo66 on October 19, 2005, 01:44:45 PM
Joe B,

You are the crazy one, at least this time.  if you want to bet him at 12 or 15 to 1, you will surely get that chance.  He will be 20-1 or over.
Title: Re: Classic is a puzzle
Post by: jbelfior on October 19, 2005, 01:45:02 PM
IMO, FLOWER ALLEY was primed for the Travers and ran his eyeballs out at a distance that may not be his favorite. Not sure Pletcher can get him to run any better than that at this point and that\'s what he\'ll need to do to win.

Sure, he\'ll run better than his JCGC. But good enough to win?? I bet NO.



Good Luck,
Joe B.