Jerry,
What is the best approach to read thoro-pattern?
thanks Con
Cong-- I haven\'t got time to give the lengthy response that question calls for, so I\'ll throw it open to our sharp handicappers, and let them have at it. I\'ll chime in as called for.
There\'s alot of information on the TG sheet and the Thoro-Pattern Study data must be used in conjuncture w/ everything else , as to aid in giving one additional overall focus of a race\'s probabilities relative to the odds . When interpeting a pattern one must determine whether a horse is going to run good or bad and will it be good enough to win and present good value in doing so . After facturing weights , pace senario\'s and projected ground loss - then Trainer , Sire and Jockey Profiles and Thoro-Patterns may be used to get sense of where the trainer is with a particular horse ( and pattern ) and also how the Horse fits in w/ the trainer and race as well .
I\'ll just add that make sure, first and foremost, that you analize the TG number and pattern first. I\'ve gotten into the most trouble when I start fiddling with trainer stats, how much the sire\'s get TG numbers improve from 3yo to 4 yo versus the average, etc. The patterns are good as \"tie breakers\" but ultimately, the value of TG is a horse like Dawn of war at 36-1 when he has competitive numbers.
thoughts on this subject? i have always thought the pattern study included too many apples and oranges to be all that useful, but i still pay attention to it, try to learn as much as i can.
For anyone who is going to use the TPs, it would be a good idea to review my original comments (The Future Is Now, Again\") which can be found in the intro section-- it is important to make a lot of distinctions when using them. If you look at the ROTWs from right after we put them in (starting with the Mother Goose of 2004) you will see some discussion of the TPs.
In those situations where it does apply, one good way to look at it is to add the new and paired top categories to just have a sense of the horse\'s chances of running well. But remember they are just a general guide, and it is a much better idea to develop an understanding of patterns in general, and the individual horse in particular. I think the TPs are most useful for a) those just starting to use the data, and b) keeping an eye on whether you are getting too excited about a horse\'s chances, or about a favorite running bad.
Meanwhile, Michael, I think you, Mike I, and Daylami have asked fair figure questions recently on the other site, but I don\'t like your chances of getting an answer.
JB, Your response to CONG\'s question sounds very much like you are too busy to answer a \"CUSTOMERS QUESTION \". Why should the readers answer the question for you ?
Michael
The patterns outputted are not apples and oranges. We apply rigid time and surface criteria, which is not to say there isn\'t variability among the qualifying patterns. That I surmise is what you mean by apples and oranges. Pardon the nitpicking but let\'s be a bit more precise in the criticism.
JB, two posts up, brings up two specific instances, (b), where TP may be very significant assuming the horse in question fits. And I would also agree that TP can be very useful for newcomers in terms of quickly identifying better and worse lines.
The extremes are most transparent, but unfortunately they most often occur for poorer lines, i.e. the off and x categories add up to 75% or above. And looking at the respective horse\'s line, we too can project it won\'t run, as well. In other words the TP, while transparent, may not be particularly illuminating. But maybe it is, as a disqualifier. It\'s another piece of data and always has to be used in the context of the field in question.
Good lines beget good TPs--that is as JB notes, two posts up, the top and pair categories add up to a high probability--60% or above--that the horse will run well. Whether the horses are fast enough given the conditions is another question.
One thing to note is that the good TPs invariably show lower good probabilities (top + pair) than the bad TPs show poor probabilities (off + x) for obvious reasons. A horse can\'t keep running new tops or pairing tops forever. They\'re mortal.
Hope this helps.
thanks Alan. always appreciate your input.