I REALLY LIKE THE THORO-GRAPH FLOWER BOWL ROTW ANALYSIS AND I\'M USING WONDER AGAIN AS MY TOP PICK IN A HANDICAPPING CONTEST RACE SATURDAY . MELHOR AINDA IS INITIALLY WAS WHERE I WAS LEANING HOWEVER I\'M ALWAYS LITTLE HESITANT TO USE A HORSE ON TOP THAT WOULD NEED TO RUN A 3 PT TOP ( OR BETTER) IN THIS TYPE OF RACE OR IN THESE TYPE SITUATIONS . ALSO , I\'M LOOKING FOR WONDER AGAIN TO PAIR-UP WITHIN A POINT (APRX ) AND LOOKING FOR BOTH SAND SPRINGS AND ANGARA TO BOUNCE MORE , FILM MAKER\'S PATTERN IS THE TYPE THEY USUALLY RUN OFF OF AND HER NUMBERS LOOK HEALTHY .
COME TIME TO BET THIS ONE , I\'M CONSIDERING PLAYING EX / TRI / SPR KEY\'S 1x3 . WE\'LL SEE , I SUPPOSE IF MELHOR AINDA IS A PRICE THAT WOULD MAKE ME FALL OUT OF MY CHAIR ( BUT I DON\'T THINK SHE WILL BE ) ONE COULD GO W/ THE WIN BET AND PROTECT WITH EXACTA\'S . HOPE I\'VE GOT THIS ONE RIGHT THOUGH , I WANT TO RETIRE BEFORE AGE 55 ...
Marcus,
At the weights, Melhior Inda would NOT need a three point top. She gets in at 115 pounds, getting 8 pounds from Sand Springs and 6 pounds from Wonder Again. She is about 2 1/2 points slower than Wonder Again and is getting about 1 1/2 points in weight. So she would need a one point top, if they got the same trip. Since Melhior Inda is a developing 3 year old, she is much more likely to run a new top than Wonder Again (as JB points out in the ROTW). To me, that makes Melhior likely to run a similar race to WA, barring ground loss. With neither having much tactical speed and WA drawing inside, that gives WA the edge in my book, but Melhior could be tough here.
I agree w/ your take , my main concern w/ Melhor Ainda was the ground loss . My guess as to the horse needing a 3 pt top was taking into account pace senario\'s and ground loss , specially if she\'s more than 3w + 3w and then takes an overland route in the stretch , and I\'m often wrong about pace senario and ground loss predictions - it\'s a decent betting race w/ a few value horse\'s in their and no shortage of opinions either ...
I would be more confident with WA on less than firm. I think SAND SPRINGS will be extremely tough to deny under Bailey. She\'s developed into a solid 5yo mare which makes sense being out of DYNAFORMER....wire to wire.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B , I was hoping that with Thursday\'s rain coupled with cooler more seasonable tempratures that irregardless of how NYRA lables the surface , it would be less than firm for W A .
S S is a special horse however when I was looking at the short term pattern as it relates to the overall longterm pattern , it seemed likely to me that a bounce is coming next ...
Joe B.
I absolutely agree that the condition of the turf has a lot to do with WAs chances. She did hang up a \"1\" over the firm in the NY Handicap over this course, but is 0/4 in firm turf races since 9/03.
NYRA has unfortunately denied my request to allow my wife to walk the turf course in high heels so that I may assess the true state of the going.
A great betting race in that 8 of the 9 seem capable of winning. In my opinion Wonder Again, Angara, Sand Springs and Melhor Ainda will attract support, none of them will be less than 5/2 (IMO), and there will be good value from this race in the multiple race wager sequences. As TGJB points out in the ROTW, Melhor seems very favorably weighted. She is 2/2 over the Bel Inner Turf.
Nice to see Bill Mott training at a 40%+ winning clip, and not a peep (that I\'ve heard) about juice, vets or super trainers.
I like the weight break for Melhor Ainda in here. Rider and trainer don\'t hurt her chances any either. Combine all the above with a another forward move and she looks like the play. I believe she will run down Sand Springs to get the nod.
ROTW
At least I had the winner named in my analysis an improvement. Like last week I will not bet this race. In a handicapping contest I used the #2 Lune D\'or. The filly looks competitive at a price and gets Jarnet over from France to ride.
Sand Springs can win. Film Maker can improve off her last. Secret Charm can hit the board at a price and I wouldn\'t throw out Angara to hit the board although I don\'t think she\'ll win.
A few of my plays for today:
R6 BEL #7 Unfurl The Flag (I don\'t know what to do with this after I read about Bernstein\'s positive yesterday. I saw Woke Up Dreamin\'s recent 6 furlong work in 1:13 H on HRTV. I was not impressed as ROman Ruler blew by him under a hand ride. Woke up Dreamin was being ridden out and I felt he wasn\'t as sharp as usual)
R9 BEL #6 Imperialism
The TG ROTW overview\'s the best wagering strategy for this race , the one thing I watch for when it comes time to actually bet a contest , as I participate in contests as well , is to not carry over a contest race tunnel vision mantality over such that it may inhibit creative thinking when formulating a wagering strategy that takes into account everything including live odd\'s , how the money moves , how the racing surface is performing , late chages , weather and much more , etc.
FYI..
Just off the phone with Gary Sciacca. He watched Wonder Again on the track this week and says she looked/looks \"like a monster\". Also said Toner\'s a.m. rider says she\'s been working and acting great... For what it\'s woth.
It would have been worth something, had Prado given the horse a better ride. Prado just refuses to give this horse a trip. he\'ll get the best fig again, but not the money.
I take that back. Just saw the replay, the winner lost quite a bit of ground when Sand Springs got out on the 1st turn. Riskaverse was just best.