This horse is a freak!
I don\'t know what the plans are, but if they can hold him together he might be the best turfer in the country either now or very soon.
I agree Class, Kitten who? I am going overboard there, but what a horse, and what acceleration from the turn to the front. Did he make his big burst into that 23:1 4th quarter? Jerry just had to make sure he held onto the handlebars and didnt fall off.
Easy big fella.
This horse just beat 3 horses-- an over the hill dirt horse, an allowance horse, and Meteor Storm, who has no interest in winning at a distance less than 10f. And Mott said he would want to run Shakespeare again before throwing him against the Euros in the BC.
The performance I liked today with regards to a Breeders Cup race was by Society Selection. She was not really allowed to run early (watch replay, look at where Castellano\'s hands are on the mare\'s neck on the backside). She finished with very good energy against an unchallenged Stellar Jayne.
SS loves Belmont and has beaten Ashado in the past. Although H Allen Jerkens, like Mott and McGaughey, really does not target racing\'s big events (Breeder\'s Cup, Triple Crown, Dubai, Hong Kong, etc), SS\'s owners, the Cowans, have already won two BC races (Hollywood Wildcat and War Chant).
Tough not to like this performance visually. Player at a mile for sure. Also agree on Society Selection.
Mott is talking only BC Turf and has no interest cutting back.
\"Easy big fella\"
Yea, it wasn\'t exactly a great field, but when Meteor Storm was ahead of him and they were crawling early I thought he was going to really have to work for it to get up. He went by Meteor Storm like he should be pulling a wagon in Central Park. MS may not be the best turfer out there, but when you can rocket past a horses like that with plenty of speed to spare after a slow pace....WOW!
The one problem I have with Society Selection is that IMO she also looked that good in other races and then threw in another of her clinkers. She visually looked great closing against Sightseek last year and against Ashado in the Ogden Phipps this year (slow paces). Sooner or later she\'s going to win another big one, but I probably won\'t have her. I didn\'t have her in the Test (I think the pace set that one up for her) or the Alabama.
Richiebee,
I hate to agree with Class, but that race had to be huge. I normally don\'t go crazy over 4 horse fields, but you have to look at who he beat and MOST IMPORTANTLY the types of figures they normally run.
Muqbil has run 6 races this year. 5 of his races were in the 4 range. Muqbil was 1w 1w yesterday and Shakespeare beat him by 9 lengths, while 3w, 2w.
In Meteor Storms last 8 races, he has run a 0, six 2\'s and a 3. Several races at the shorter distances you feel he doesn\'t run as well at. Meteor Storm was beaten by 4 lengths.
Unless you think that two very very consistent horses bounced pretty badly, Shakespeare had to run a very big number yesterday. I guess we will see when the numbers come out, but it should be a fast race.
Jerry, I guess I am crying over spilled milk (and lost money), but I have to question the number you gave Shakespeare last time. That 3.5 looks slow. A couple of come back from that race and ran decently. How confident was that number? Whale came out of a stakes record performance at Delaware and was running loose on the lead (saving ground) on a turf course that favored speed all week and Shakespeare ran him down very easily, with nobody else in the race making up any ground.
Jim
jimbo,
>I hate to agree with Class<
:)
Don\'t worry, you really aren\'t. At least not for the same reasons.
I couldn\'t care less what number is given to that race by anyone. Turf figures are often complicated by the slow paces.
To me, the pace was slow yesterday. Meteor Storm is a pretty darn good horse even if he\'s not among the top few. He\'s a Grade 1 winner and runner up. He ran fine in the paceless Sword Dancer. He had the jump on Shakespeare, looked like he was finishing well, and ended up well clear of the others. IMO there aren\'t too many horses in the country that could have closed him down yesterday given that pace and the head start he had. To blow him away with a lot of speed in reserve, was IMO simply huge.
All the figure makers will assign a figure that makes sense given the horse\'s past figures. It will probably be fast, but I don\'t think it will tell the real story. IMO, it was a monstrous performance for a horse\'s 4th start. I hope he stays sound, holds this form, and can be as effective at 10F-12F.
Class,
Glad you posted something I can disagree with.
Why would you post on the Thorograph board that you could care less about the figures assigned to the race and then for the umpteenth time, give a post race analysis based on the pace of the race?
The pace of the race had nothing to do with the result. Shakespeare inhaled two runners who had very established form and numbers. He did so effortlessly and with something in reserve.
jimbo,
The figure is the figure. It\'s not that it doesn\'t matter. It\'s just not what I found impressive (I am assuming it will be fast though). I respectively disagree with you about the impact of the pace in this race.
When a pace is even mildly slow (which IMO was the minimum case here), all else being equal, I\'d rather have the horse with the jump. When the horse coming from behind rallies to win anyway, it usually tells you that he\'s even more superior to the horse he closed down than it looks because he overcame the disadvantage.
A post analysis of the pace is the only way to determine how well horses actually ran. You wouldn\'t suggest that I stop doing a post analysis of the final time, but you think I should stop doing one for pace when I believe strongly it often impacts the time? You are being silly just to disagree. You don\'t have to agree with my opinions on the pace of the race or pace in general, but it obviously has to part of the analysis of a performance for those that believe it matters. It\'s wasn\'t just winning big that impressed me. It was winning big with speed in reserve off that slow pace that did.
Stream Cat is another that looks like a great 2yo prospect to me. Same sort of thing. Visually very impressive.
Jimbo:
Lets look at Shakespeare\'s immediate future. He will be asked to run 12 marks on October 1 and 12 marks again on October 29. When (if) he runs in the BC Turf, it will be his 3rd race in 48 days, 2 of those races at 12 marks.
Does his light racing background make it more or less likely that he will bounce? In which of the next 2 races is he more likely to bounce? Is there someone out there who is going to tell me that the two 12 mark races are less strenuous than 2 quickly run sprints?
Jimbo, our girl In the Gold put it together on Saturday. She broke well (finally) and seemed to finish strongly. Zito said that she was horsing going into her last race (Test) and you wonder why he didn\'t scratch her. The BC Distaff could be a strong race just based on the NY horses who may run: Steinbrenner Symphony, Stellar Jayne, Ashado, In the Gold, Society Selection...
Richiebee,
Agree with you on the tall order ahead of Shakespeare. If they offered a 2006 BC Turf futures bet, I would bet him. Not sure this year is possible. My only point is that from a figure standpoint, I am guessing the race this weekend comes up very big, because the two he beat have very established and consistent levels. If he was a price in the BC Turf futures (25-1), I would take a stab, because of how good the horse has looked, but if he wins big on October 1, he will be one of the favorites and will be in position to bounce probably - as you point out. Plenty of development this year.
Yes, In the Gold finally put it all together. I hadn\'t given up hope. 9-5 wasn\'t a great payoff, but if you figured the favorite to bounce, In the Gold and her consistent 2\'s were a likely winner. I singled her hard in the pick-4\'s but used the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Man O\'War, didn\'t like the winner.
Zito said that In the Gold has been in season for quite a while now and finally that wasn\'t the case this weekend. He said she had a better focus and figured a big race from her.
You are right in that the Distaff is going to be a very good BC race, as opposed to the BC Classic, which is going to suck, IMO. I will start praying now for a 14 horse field in the Classic, with Dutrow\'s horse drawing post 14, going 1 1/4, starting on the turn. A death position for a speed/stalker type at Belmont at that distance.
It will be interesting to see Who Bailey and Valasquez choose on BC turf races.
They both have options.
NC Tony
Meteor Storn cost me the largest payoff of my career last year on Belmont Day. Anyday he loses is alright with me.
Shakespeare was visually awsome even in a 4 horse race. I can\'t wait to see the figure he posted.
NC Tony
Richie,
You are right that may be the most competitive and best races of the day as it seems to be shaping up to be.
Good Call.
NC Tony
Interested to see the # for this race also. Will definitely be downloading for the Turf Classic on Oct. 1. Anyone know what Beyer # he got for the race? Must be getting close to 110 on Beyers and 1 for T-Graph.
Beyer was 108...
Attached are the Thoro-Graph sheets for race 7 at Sar 7/27/5, Shakespeare\'s prior race.
Allan,
Thanks for posting.
Rousing Victory came out of the race and ran a big one, before his bounce in the Man O\' War.
Shakespeare also ran a big one, I assume on Sunday.
Sir Greeley, ran 7 points better next time out, albeit on a surface switch.
I don\'t know about the others.
I guess Shakespeare could just have moved up 3 more points as a lightly raced 3 year old.
Would you view Shakespeare differently on October 1, when he races next, if his two races were 1.5 and 0, instead of 3.5 and 0?
Sir Greeley actually came back to pair that number exactly on the grass 10 days later before running the big one on dirt. Also, while that was the only inner grass race that day (opening day), I treated the course as being significantly slower than for the next day-- in other words, I took off more.
On Shakespeare-- he is more likely to bounce with the bigger jump, but as a) a grass horse and b) one who has never gone back, there is a good chance he will pair up either way.
> I guess Shakespeare could just have moved up 3
> more points as a lightly raced 3 year old.
Shakespeare is 4.
Allan