Dutrow has Show Boat and Crafty Player entered as an entry. One or both (if he runs both) will be used to make sure Commentator doesn\'t get too easy a pace on the lead. Yet neither of them is an entry with St Liam. Something is wrong with that picture.
Lots of things are wrong with the picture.
1. The ever smug \"move up\" Genius, Mr. Dutrow, doesn\'t need a rabbit. Saint Liam is a very very quick horse. He got beat in the Whitney on the square by a better horse/ride/trip/less weight. He would have been expected by most to win the rematch, without the rabbit. For him to blame the Whitney on the pace that Commentator set was very sour grapes. The pace was fast and Dutrow\'s horse couldn have ran faster earlier, he is very tractable, he is not a plodder.
2. How come the genius is being allowed by the owners of Show Boat and Crafty Player to sacrifice their horses to help some other client of Dutrow. There is no common ownership, which is why they are not an entry with Saint Liam. More sleaze from Dutrow.
3. You have a 4 entry race with two rabbits. How much worse can a grade 1 get. They won\'t get a nickel of mine with that racing product. I don\'t know if there are some stats out there, but the crops of horses this year seem thinner than ever before in my memory. We had 20 horses in 4 stakes on Travers day. The field has been \"early retired\" into such a state that there are limited good betting races/opportunities at the stakes level anymore. The Man o War being a very notable exception this weekend.
4. What really stinks to me is that Dutrow will likely win on Saturday and IMO he is the obvious favorite to win the BC Classic. Yuck.
\"Saint Liam is a very very quick horse. He got beat in the Whitney on the square by a better horse/ride/trip/less weight.\"
I agree with everything you said, excpet maybe the \"better horse\" comment. :-)
#2 is the thing that really stinks about this.
they are rabbits, you don\'t need a coupling to figure that out. the problem is that they are coupling at all in that race. like sir shackleton? doesn\'t matter - you can\'t bet him. coupling has it\'s obvious advantages, but for betting purposes, it ruins far more graded races that it helps. NYRA stopped all coupling in grade 1 races a few years ago. i wonder why it\'s back.
Jimbo--
I\'ll open up a personal betting window for anyone who wants to wager on SAINT LIAM at 1 1/4 in the BC CLASSIC.
Here\'s hoping he jogs on Saturday.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B.
What are you offering at your betting window in the futures book?
He\'s got a pair of negative 6\'s. He has multiple negative 4\'s.
I don\'t \"love\" the horse at a 1 1/4 either, but who exactly out there will beat him? Commentator is fast enough, but is MORE suspect at 1 1/4. Bellamy Road had a shot, but his Travers was lousy IMO. He ran about a \"0\". Flower Alley is OK, but is still 4 to 5 lengths slower than Saint Liam. A healthy and fit Afleet Alex would certainly have a great shot. But how can he get to this race fit? A sprint in october, then onto the classic? Roman Ruler? Perfect Drift?
It might be a year to look at a Euro invader, if any show up for the classic.
We know they are rabbits, but they are rabbits that are coupled with each other without being coupled with the beneficiary of their sacrifice. There\'s going to be people out there that are going to bet this entry to win (granted not many that have any clue what they are doing). There\'s something that stinks about one owner sacrificing his horse for another vs. a single owner entering multiple horses with one being the sacrifice for the other and they are coupled.
Also, what\'s to stop owners from working out deals like this even if they use different trainers?
My understanding of coupling is that a trainer can run multiple entries as long as the ownership is not common. If it is common the horses must run as an entry. The theory being owners should not be able to place bets upon information that they alone are privy to. Or in other words, its their higher priced horse that is well intended. One betting entry eliminates the shenanigans.
In Dutrows case theres seperate ownership and Dutrow is ostensibly trying to win with the dual entry. Obviously, you have to find it interesting that Goldfarb horses appear to be stone cold sprinters. I\'m guessing Dutrow will scratch one of the two at post time and go with whichever rabbit is ready for a go go effort.
Theres no way around this Woodward type of ploy unless you prohibit trainers from having more than one entry in any particular race. In that case Nick Zito would only be able to run One Kentucky Derby starter and I\'m certain he would object to that. The rules of entry help Zito sometimes, this time they work to his disadvantage. Thats the way the game goes.
You have to respect Dr. Fager types, but its silly to think you can\'t take their game to them. If Commentator is an exceptional horse he\'ll handle the additional weight and the pace contest and perhaps he can then be compared to Dr. Fager.
Don\'t bet on it.
CTC,
At least neither of the rabbits is of especially high quality. Commentator should be able to dispose of either of them within 1/2 mile or so. However, the way ST. Liam was getting to him last time, it\'s hard to imagine Commentator winning if they both repeat their recent efforts. That goes double because if anything Saratoga was a little kind to speed that day and that\'s rarely the case at Belmont.
What\'s silly about all of this is, now that everyone knows what he is doing, why couldn\'t they just let Com. lay off the pace with ST. ?? ST use to be a front runner type and Richard said the other day he\'s trying to get him to come off the pace a bit.
Ramsey & Frankel(Stronach at Magna Track) last year sound familiar?
NC Tony
CtC,
I actually agree with you this time. If you have the $, it\'s your\'s to do as you please provided you comply with the rules. I am sure they are otherwise with NYRA under such scrutiny, they would disallow it.
NC Tony
Biancone (for Tabor) sent out a Rabbit in Derby for Bandini\'s benefit vs Bellamy, That worked well didn\'t it? How many Derby horses have run well since that race?
NC Tony
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That goes
> double because if anything Saratoga was a little
> kind to speed that day and that\'s rarely the case
> at Belmont.
>
>
>
>
I\'d have to strongly disagree with that. Belmont is one of the most speed favoring tracks in the entire country, particularly among the higher class tracks.
Beyer,
I don\'t look at nearly as many charts as you do, but I don\'t know many horseplayers that would say Belmont is generally more speed favoring than the Aqu Inner Track, Aqu Main Track, or Saratoga (on the day of the Whitney) on average. My impression is that that\'s true of the CA tracks also because when I review various major stakes, there seems to be more suspect speed days. Not sure how you are measuring speed favoring, but I rarely give a day at Belmont an S+ rating and only occasionally an S rating. Usually, I consider the track honest other than an occasional rail bias issue. I gave out plenty of S ratings to Saratoga this year and they are more routine at the other NYRA tracks also. I did notice Churchill seeming to have a lot of BR days this year that seemed to be helping closers.
I am just reviewing another handicapping product (I won\'t mention it by name) focused on Belmont. I decided to get it to maybe get a leg up on the Breeders Cup. I think there may be a bit of a myth that Belmont may favor closers, but according to the stats, it looks like Belmont plays much closer to \"speed favoring\" than I would\'ve thought. I can\'t really say if it\'s more \"speed favoring\" than the other tracks mentioned, but the stats did surprise me a little. HP
HP--
I know the product you are referring to. It did not suprise me. I think Belmont plays better to speed on the dirt than Saratoga or Aqueduct. But this is an opinion from watching races with my eyes. Ultimately the stats may prove me wrong but it doesn\'t change the way I handicap Belmont dirt races. Unless a pronounced closer\'s bias exists (usually after it starts to dry out), I\'m favoring a horse with speed.
With all of that being said, if we end up with another cold blustery day on October 29th, closers may end up with the advantage.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The problem is there are probably going to be some special preparations for Breeders Cup and that will alter the track a little, so if you look for a bias from the previous days\' races it may vanish.
I was there twice this year and I noticed that it SMELLED different than I remembered it. Sandier than ever. It rained a little one day, and I thought a hermit crab would crawl up and bite me on the ass. It may sound crazy, but I really thought it was a change from the year before. HP
Maybe I should clarify what I consider a speed bias to be.
Obviously this is all subjective stuff that\'s probably going to piss Jerry off, but I hope he\'ll let it slide.
On most tracks speed is an advantage every day because you save ground, avoid trouble, already have position etc... That\'s not the kind of bias I am referring to.
When I am referring to a speed bias I mean that given two contenders that I would normally make \"dead even on that track on the typical day\", if I think the track will give the speed horse a bigger advantage than usual, that\'s a bias I would rate an S. I consider that kind of track to be like a biased roulette wheel. It\'s not dictating results, but it\'s a little extra in the favor of speed relative to what\'s normal on that track.
On a track like that, closers can and will win if they are superior, but a horse that has a little trouble getting 7F might find the wire. A pace duel that would normally cost the favorite the win, might get home anyway. A loose speed horse migth run an unexpected new top.
An S+ is much rarer. That\'s a day when the results seem to be dictated by running styles as opposed to modestly influenced by the running styles \"relative to normal for the track\". That happens sometimes on wet tracks and other rare occaisions.
None of my subjective views are based on wire to wire winner percentages or average position of the winner etc... They are based on how I rated the horses coming into the day and how they seemed to be running relative to those opinions. If there\'s a preponderance of evidence suggesting that a track \"might\" be biased, I make a note of it and adjust those performance up/down very slightly as evidence comes in.
Regardless of whether you agree or not, I thought the day of Whitney \"might be slightly tilted toward speed\". Please, let\'s not debate that part. So when I look at Commentator, I see a horse that cut a pretty fast pace. Yet he still held off St Liam. who I think is an excellent horse. Normally, I would think he ran a terrific race after setting that pace despite being loose. However, I think he was able to cut those fast fraction and get away with it because the track was somewhat kind to speed that day. Essentially the track bias offset the pace. So I expect the weight shift to more than compensate. If Belmont is playing honest and the rabbits force a similar pace out of Commentator, I expect St. Liam to beat Commentator by more than the weight shift suggests.
If I am wrong, it won\'t be the first time. :)
OK jerry, you can put away the barf bag. :)
CH--
It stinks that NYRA could not get a better field for this. I\'m getting tired of this.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
CH--
I agree that SAINT LIAM will probably turn the tables on COMMENTATOR. I like SHANIKO for a suck up second and will take a small shot in the win hole.
This could be the time of year where we get one of those AP INDY 4 yos that really get going. Last was a terrific # and visually the race should not have taken much out of him. One could argue that he could have run faster late if he needed to. He\'s probably better around 1 turn and the fact that he ran so impressively around 2 turns indicates he may now be ready to be a serious racehorse.
Now let\'s say that the Whitney was too tough on both of the favorites and neither one of them is in the mood for a :45 half tomorrow. SAINT LIAM needed more time to recover the last time he ran a neg 6.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
\"Now let\'s say that the Whitney was too tough on both of the favorites and neither one of them is in the mood for a :45 half tomorrow. SAINT LIAM needed more time to recover the last time he ran a neg 6.\"
I hadn\'t even considered that. I guess I was just more or less assuming both of them would fire another big shot??? Good point about 1 turn/2 turn. I do think Commentator ran very well last time out. On my figures, I gave him a fast pace. I\'m just not giving him credit for it because of my opinion on the track. If the track wasn\'t a little biased, them maybe he\'s a freak. I don\'t think so yet.
It\'s also 2 big numbers in a row for him. Yes, COMMENTATOR may be a freak and his last was a terrific effort. I\'m betting the race took too much out of him.
Regardless, SHANIKO needs to improve big time even if the top 2 are off their game. As a 4yo in September out of AP INDY, the chances of a bright, shiny new top increase.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I should add one thing.
\"None of my subjective views on biases are based on wire to wire winner percentages or average position of the winner etc... \"
The reason I don\'t look at stats like that is because over time I think the jockeys recognize extreme biases and adjust how aggressive they are early. So a track could be very speed favoring and not produce an unusual amount of wire to wire winners because the jocks are setting much faster fractions than normal (and vice versa!).
I\'ve seen that sort of thing repeatedly on a single day, let alone a entire meet where all the jockeys can eventually figure it out.
We all know turf racing is a little different. The paces are slower and they come home faster. Maybe that\'s a related type of phenomenon.
SHANIKO looks like an improving horse, but I agree that he has a long way to go get up to St Liam. I often get suckered into trying to beat horses like Commentator for the place in the exacta. I\'ll be at the US Open tomorrow rooting for Agassi. Hopefully I\'ll save some money. :)
Belmont can be favor different pace styles depending upon the day. As TGraphs studies have tended to indicate its moisture content related. The big sandy can be anything depending upon the time of year. It can be deep and favor front runners. It can be wet and favor off pace. Its remarkable, you just have to watch it close on the day you\'re betting.
Its pretty clear the Spa was favoring quick steppers by the Whitney. Commentator did come home in roughly 26:4 extrapolated...thats indicating end of the rope. You add the 10 pds. 6 pound swing and projected pace challenge and he\'ll need the one turn to try and hold on. However, its a crappy race. Even factoring bounce probability. Who you gonna bet 3-5 St.Liam? Or Even money Commentator? Or you gonna go way out on the limb and say Shaniko is gonna take his Saratoga form to Belmont where he hasn\'t been as effective? Purely a watch it race.
I can\'t say i\'ve ever smelled the track per se. I\'ve smelled the horses and infield lake and even the building. But dont think I\"ve smelled the track.
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beyer,
>
> I don\'t look at nearly as many charts as you do,
> but I don\'t know many horseplayers that would say
> Belmont is generally more speed favoring than the
> Aqu Inner Track, Aqu Main Track, or Saratoga (on
> the day of the Whitney) on average. My impression
> is that that\'s true of the CA tracks also because
> when I review various major stakes, there seems to
> be more suspect speed days. Not sure how you are
> measuring speed favoring, but I rarely give a day
> at Belmont an S+ rating and only occasionally an S
> rating. Usually, I consider the track honest other
> than an occasional rail bias issue. I gave out
> plenty of S ratings to Saratoga this year and they
> are more routine at the other NYRA tracks also. I
> did notice Churchill seeming to have a lot of BR
> days this year that seemed to be helping closers.
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 09/09/05 09:55AM by
> classhandicapper.
Class,
Is this really the goal for St. Liam ? If it is he\'s a NO GO for he BC Classic.
It appears as if Dutrow is either pointing for this or to insure Commentator will not win this regarless if St. Liam does. Now What is the take on dropping Prado on this horse? Did he really do a bad job last time?
Also noticed that Prado no longer seems to be the No1 guy for Dutrow lately.
MAybe I\'m wrong, but I just don\'t think this Horse is \"the Horse\". He\'s good and a competitor, but doesn\'t seem to have the winner heart.
NC Tony
NCT,
I don\'t think the race is very bettable. I\'m mostly interested in it from a sporting perspective. Everyone\'s goal is the BC, but IMO if Dutrow thought that St Liam wasn\'t at least close to 100%, I don\'t think he\'d bother with the rabbits. I think Commentator will need the BC classic to get HOTY/best older horse even if he wins tomorrow and I don\'t like his chances in a big field at 10F at all. I think he\'s going to get buried that day. He can win tomorrow if the rabbits are so pathetic he shakes them off quickly (they are low quality) or if he can somehow run as well under rating tactics. That\'s not impossible, but I wouldn\'t want to bet on it either. He has shown no inclination to back off at all so far. I\'d be a little surprised if St Liam doesn\'t run well. I think he has run very well for Durtow every time he as run (even in defeat) except at 10F with a bit of a tougher trip. The best case scenario is that I am wrong and Commentator wins impressively. It won\'t cost me anything if that happens and it ensures that I can make a very big bet on someone in the Classic.
I should say that I am deader than a zombie in a \"B\" horror movie these days. So you may want to take what I say with an even bigger grain of salt than usual. :)
The race is unbettable, at least with a 15% takeout. Shaniko is a scratch, which means we have three betting interests, one of which is a rabbit. St. Liam will be 1-2 and Commentator 7-5.
I guess St. Liam is more likely to run another big number and with the six pounds added on to Commentator, St. Liam is the likely winner. Call it a \"heart\" bet, but I am taking 2-1 on a \'matchup\' bet with Commentator. In a virtual match race, I think 2-1 is a fair and I can\'t skip a grade 1.
Have to agree with the poster who likes Relaxed Gesture in the Man O War. Sounds like Jerry thinks the horse has developed too much and is a little negative on him. I think he got bad trips the last two races, and the Santos off, NAkatani on move is positive to me. I think the rabbit helps this horse, as he was obliged to chase the Frankel horse last time in a paceless race. The horse should relax better this time. The price figures square, at maybe 4-1.
jimbo,
My thinking on the Man O War is similar to yours. You have been warned :)
I think the rabbit was a waste of time in that last turf affair when he opened up 15, but I think he\'s more likely to be relevant in this spot. King\'s Drama has done his best running on the front end and hasn\'t looked as good when he wasn\'t on the lead. Perhaps he\'s a better horses now or more vesatile than he\'s shown to date, but I think you are always taking on additional pace related risk with a horse like this, in a spot like this, and need to be compensated.
On the flip side, Relaxed Gesture was forced to keep King\'s Drama honest last time out. This time he will be able to sit just off the pace and be in a good position to pounce on him when the rabbit throws in the towel.
I am less negative on Better Talk Now than some people though. His reputation may be greater than the horse because of the BC win, but that wasn\'t a bad effort in the Arlington Million. IMO that group was superior to the Sword Dancer despite the similar speed. I think he may be the deserving favorite over RG, but perhaps the value might be the other way aroound. We\'ll have to see the odds.
Turf courses at Bel should be rather hard; there\'s been no significant rain in the last few weeks... Better Talk Now better on a softer surface?
As on Travers day, a pitiful turnout for the stakes events with some short priced favorites; I will consider making some Pick 6s rather than chasing what could be a very short all stakes Pick 4.
Now I have to change my mind since you agree with me Class......
RG will be third choice, almost guaranteed. Don\'t worry about him being the favorite. BTN figures the favorite, maybe co-favorite with Kings Drama. RG will be 7-2 or 4-1. Up to you to decide if that is enough of a price. It is for me, since I don\'t think much of BTN, however I agree with you (again) that the race in the ARlington Million was a very good race for him. I thought he was WAY over-rated before that race, now I think he is just mildly over-rated....
Lots of posts on this non bettable race. Interesting discussions. Some observations:
Prado is off, he\'s had trouble getting St. Liam back on the proper lead late. Its been as if he didn\'t even know a lead change was in order. Its one of the reasons Jerry Bailey is up. JB\'s stock has fallen slightly however if theres not a low odds issue with him, is there anyone else you\'d rather have on your horse at Belmont? I don\'t think so.
As far as St. Liam\'s fitness, hes as fit as any horse can be that blistered another negative six. Of course he\'s on track for the B.C.Classic. Form may change those plans but is there really a more accomplished horse in America?
As far as the odds in this race St. Liam will be odds on and if you can get 7-5 on Commentator I\'ll be surprised. Commentator will be Even money if my math is right.
Commentator likes one turn and have to think that factor works to his advantage but even if he doesnt let the rabbit head him its very hard to believe the increased impost and pace effort won\'t leave less in the tank for the finish and there wasn\'t a whole lot left in the tank last time. To my mind a wager upon Commentator can only be cashed if St. Liam bounces or Commentator bounces less or they both bounce high enough to let Shackleton pick up the pieces. To stake out that scenario doesn\'t appear very wise to me as they obviously both exit the same race. Sometimes wagering can devolve to gambling and betting on the Woodward would be nothing more than a gamble.
If they are both 100% St. Liam will easily win that race. If not, theres no value anyway.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Class,
>
> Is this really the goal for St. Liam ? If it is
> he\'s a NO GO for he BC Classic.
>
> It appears as if Dutrow is either pointing for
> this or to insure Commentator will not win this
> regarless if St. Liam does. Now What is the take
> on dropping Prado on this horse? Did he really do
> a bad job last time?
>
> Also noticed that Prado no longer seems to be the
> No1 guy for Dutrow lately.
>
> MAybe I\'m wrong, but I just don\'t think this Horse
> is \"the Horse\". He\'s good and a competitor, but
> doesn\'t seem to have the winner heart.
>
> NC Tony
Chuckles,
You are probably right, Saint Liam is a likely winner in a poor betting race. I think there is some chance that St. Liam reacts to his negative 6 and in a virtual match race, I took +222 on Commentator in a matchup bet. I agree you won\'t see that in the betting pools, more like 6-5 or 7-5, assuming Saint Liam is 1 to 2.
Betting on Commentator is probably a poor bet on my part, but I hate Dutrow and had Commentator last time at 3-1. Hence, I said betting with my heart and not brain, in this case.
Go commentator........
Interesting odds board for the Man O war.
My apologies Class, Relaxed Gesture is the chalk, as you suggested. It is hard to believe that the Frankel is 5-1 here. Rousing Victory and Angara are shorter than expected also, especially the former.
The Frankel might be the value here if he stays 4-1 or longer, as the fastest horse in the race, with enough speed to offset the outside post. Rating is the question with him. 4-1 is a fair price to find out if he can rate.
interesting odds on the woodward...lol
That wont last...if it does it may not be gambling
Well, Commentator may have bounced, but it sure looked to me that he couldn\'t handle a pace battle.
St.Liam, what can you say?
Think Zito even sends Commentator to the Classic? I\'d try him at the mile.
CTC you made a great point, what does Nick think now of Commentator. Does he say well those rabbit\'s cost us the race and there might not be that much pace in the BC or he might say let\'s try the sprint it\'s still a fast pace but it\'s 6F and he might lay in behind the front runner\'s. Or they will say something happen to him and were going to lay him off for awhile and maybe never see him again. Or run him in the Jockey Gold Cup to try one more time. Only time will tell.
I just got back from the US Open and watched the race. It went exactly as I expected. Call it a bounce if you like, but Commentator had some help from the biased track last time out. This time the rabbits had him surrounded. Going from a loose lead on a favorable track to being surrounded on an honest track is a big trip switch and Commentator was exposed. This is bad news for me because now I can\'t empty my wallet against him in the BC Classic, but it\'s good news for Bellamy Road.
I was surprised by the payoff on Better Talk Now. I thought he would have been a more solid favorite.
I was a bit surprized to see G1 jokes like Dreadnaught and Rousing Victory taking money. The three top horses finished in the top three and both the exacta and trifecta payed better than I expected. The only other surprize was that Quail Run earlier in the day paid over $10.00. Hoping Aristocrat and Awesome Twist also offer value tomorrow.
The tactics employed by Dutrow were a complete disgrace to this formerly great sport. Rabbits are one thing, strangling your horse to harass another to help a different uncoupled horse is another. The irony is it didn\'t really affect the result one iota.
beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The tactics employed by Dutrow were a complete
> disgrace to this formerly great sport. Rabbits
> are one thing, strangling your horse to harass
> another to help a different uncoupled horse is
> another. The irony is it didn\'t really affect the
> result one iota.
>
The fact that this received NO media attention is a friggen joke and tells you how corrupt this sport is, check out the head on, its a disgrace what they did. NYRA is really as corrupt as their image.
Sad thing is Saint L. doesn\'t even need those rabbit\'s, he\'s a good race horse.
The two Goldfarb owned rabbits brought home a combined 8% of the $490,000 purse offered by NYRA for their respective fourth and fifth place finishes.
Shame on NYRA and trainers/owners that only 2 legitimate animals showed up for a Grade I $490,000 race. Shame on Commentator and Gary Stevens; Commentator had broke on top in his previous 4 races, yet couldn\'t clear these two tomato cans in the first 1/8th mile yesterday.
Drugs may be killing racing. Short fields (also known as too much racing and breeding) will kill racing more quickly by driving off the most important participant...the bettor.
It starts at the yearling/ 2YO sales. Colts are sold for well in excess of what they can ever earn on the track unless they win a Triple Crown race or Breeder\'s Cup race. Pinhookers buying yearlings in October and selling them as 2YOs in February raise the ante. A graded stakes win, a big # from TG or Beyer over a Talladega like surface, the inevitable minor injury, and we\'ve created another stakes winning retiree, a stallion who may have started what ...seven or eight times?
The fields are short because animals with minor infirmities are forced into retirement. We tend to admire equine athletes, but their human connections rarely allow us the opportunity to see them \"play hurt\".
Don\'t think anyone can resent the tactics due to a lost wager. The race wasn\'t bettable and what was going to happen was apparent.
Commentator is the typical headstrong horse that wants to open daylight between himself and his competition and then get into a relaxed stride. If left alone he\'s apparently enough horse to run off as far as 9 marks. If he can\'t rate or isn\'t enough horse to overcome a pace challenge and still win why shouldn\'t trainers bait him?
Dutrow said it all. He said he didn\'t need the rabbits to beat Commentator but that he didn\'t want an all out extended effort from St. Liam so close to the Breeders Cup Classic. \"I didn\'t want him getting down on his belly\".
I don\'t have much regard for cheap speed horses that need it all their own way. As far as I\'m concerned if you enter a one dimensional horse, hyped on juice, to try and wire professional races horses. You are fair game buddy.
Classhandicapper stated it well earlier. Left alone some horses will apparently run off and earn huge performance figures. Toss a little adversity in their face and they won\'t even get close to them. Commentator is such a horse. Check out his past performances again. The horse needs the lead. He didn\'t get it for the first time in his life yesterday and he collapsed like a house of cards. I salute Dick Dutrow for exposing this charlatan and call upon Nick Zito to clean up his act. Dick Dutrow as well, but St. Liam is a serious racehorse. He\'s honest and has real abilitiy.
Mabye rabbits are the way to kill off some of this pharmaceutical speed we\'ve been forced to endure.
beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The tactics employed by Dutrow were a complete
> disgrace to this formerly great sport. Rabbits
> are one thing, strangling your horse to harass
> another to help a different uncoupled horse is
> another. The irony is it didn\'t really affect the
> result one iota.
>
CtC,
Apparently you somehow missed in my short post that I don\'t care about rabbits. These horses were there to intimidate and harass Commentator. Watch the head on, then get back to me. This had nothing to do with outrunning him for the lead.
beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC,
>
> Apparently you somehow missed in my short post
> that I don\'t care about rabbits. These horses
> were there to intimidate and harass Commentator.
> Watch the head on, then get back to me. This had
> nothing to do with outrunning him for the lead.
I did not have a chance to review it till this morning, when someone told me to check it out it out, its pretty bad what they did, as complete uncoupled entries. I swear, how this does not fit a conspiracy to fix a pari mutual race is beyond me.
Richee
\"Shame on Commentator and Gary Stevens; Commentator had broke on top in his previous 4 races, yet couldn\'t clear these two tomato cans in the first 1/8th mile yesterday. \"
I think he could have cleared them, but in Stevens\'s mind he was asking how much horse he would have left if he did so. I think he took a shot at rating him and he got rank. THen he tried to go and the rabbits went Kamikazee. Sooner or later they were going to have to find out if he could rate a little and still run as well. Better yesterday than to make that decision in the BC under fire.
IMO, no matter how you slice it, Commentator was exposed as a one dimensional speed horse (at least at this point in his career) that only beat St Liam up at Saratoga because he got loose by 5 lengths on a track that was kind to front runners. IMO, he was not as good as he looked up at Saratoga and I didn\'t see anything yesterday to change my mind even if that wasn\'t his \"A\" game. IMO, it\'s always hard to measure performances like this because some speed horses like Commentator wilt terribly when they don\'t get it their own way and others run fine but not quite as well. There is no formula. The frame of reference (the Whitney) is just as suspect because of the track. He\'s a damn good sprinter though. Maybe they should reconsider what they want to do with him.
Beyerguy,
I saw the race. Richiebee stated the key point. \"Why didn\'t Stevens just outgun those cheap horses?\" Stevens tried to rate a bit and said his horse got rank and he had to let him go. The initial rating played right into their hands and Commentator came unglued. Showboot was a NW2X horse. Crafty a NW1X horse, but they didn\'t want to send Commentator because they didnt want to burn the gas that early.
That was also a very fair track. There was no way in hell Commentator was gonna steal a race on it.
He deserved exactly what he got....No Respect.
If that is the kind of racing you want to see at the top levels of the sport, you truly are a clown. Looked like WWE to me.
CTC,
\"He switched to his left lead and he was very rank with me,\" Stevens said. \"My tack went forward, I had to give him his head, and that was it.\"
Beyer,
\"If that is the kind of racing you want to see at the top levels of the sport, you truly are a clown. Looked like WWE to me.\"
Where\'s Triple H? :)
I have mixed feelings about rabbits. I don\'t have too much of a problem with a trainer making sure a one dimensional speed horse doesn\'t have an unfair advantage in a paceless race. I have more of a problem with sending horses from another owner on a suicide mission. As far as I am concerned, that means any two owners in the world can sit down before the race and give themselves a huge betting and purse advantage by working out deals for who\'s going for the lead and who is not etc...
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beyer,
>
> \"If that is the kind of racing you want to see at
> the top levels of the sport, you truly are a
> clown. Looked like WWE to me.\"
>
> Where\'s Triple H?
>
> I have mixed feelings about rabbits. I don\'t have
> too much of a problem with a trainer making sure a
> one dimensional speed horse doesn\'t have an unfair
> advantage in a paceless race. I have more of a
> problem with sending horses from another owner on
> a suicide mission. As far as I am concerned, that
> means any two owners in the world can sit down
> before the race and give themselves a huge betting
> and purse advantage by working out deals for who\'s
> going for the lead and who is not etc...
>
>
like I said, conspiracy to fix a pari mutual race, its dangerously close.
All this crying, let me ask you this beyer.......Didn\'t Nick Z. knew what was about to happen?? and he still ran him, maybe he was in it for the 2nd place money, hell he got 2nd and 3rd place. Second, so this horse can\'t run at all with horses to either side of him, they might want to go ahead and put him in stud now, oh wait he can\'t bred I guess he\'s F\'ed. I don\'t buy it, maybe if it was his time to run his A game he might have held on alot better, he was coming two big races. You think that Zito could have told Gary something to make it better on the horse.
beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If that is the kind of racing you want to see at
> the top levels of the sport, you truly are a
> clown. Looked like WWE to me.
Once again, Classhandicapper hit on the salient part of the issue. I don\'t have any problem whatsoever with multiple trainer entries to run an unadaptable prospective piece of dog food into the ground. I can see that. I can handicap it and if that Woodward was a real field at all I would have bet a perfecta where Companyhator was out of exacta.
That was WWE. It was a rigged match. Zito and Dutrow ran all the horses. Screw Zito and his medicine. If he wants to play medicine blast off hes free game. Zito ran five horsese in the Derby and kept others out. The rules are the rules. If they want to change them so that a trainer can only have one horse in a race, I\'m fine with it. Ask Zito if he can accept one Derby starter.
I\'d much prefer WWE rabbits than secret deals and backroom handshakes that result in pace scenarios that aren\'t apparent on their face.
I\'m glad Companyhator lost and I\'m glad Zito is looking like a fool. Maybe he\'ll develope a conscience. He should have scratched the horse.
It\'s good to have the old Chuckles back.....
He should have scratched the horse.
Why? This is all a bit of a joke. I agree with the posts here that said this was not so much to do with rabbits as it was intentionally harrassing one horse to benefit an uncoupled enrymate, but that being said Zito and Stevens let that happen by attempting to rate him. He should have blown to the front as always and those two pigs would have been gasping after trying to chase some quality speed after a 1/2. Nobody ever suggested that Pop John could warm up Vanlandingham going 9 furlongs even if he could run a 1/2 in 44 flat. We saw what Commentator did to better horses than this 2 back at Belmont, albeit at 7/8. If nothing else employing those tactics would have made St. Liam \'get down on his belly\' trying to stay close and it could have set things up better for Sir Shack had Commentator quit anyway. They put St. Liam in the catbird seat trying to avoid a duel at any point. Point two - this was sad for NYRA and The Woodward but blaming NYRA is a joke. If you don\'t think they worked overtime trying to hustle a larger field for this then you are kidding yourself. Goldfarb picked up a decent chunk rigging the race for his trainer and he deserves every penny he got because at least he entered. Point three - it would serve Dutrow right if Zito entered all or as many of his contingent he can get in to the Classic and take turns riding herd on St. Liam to make sure he doesn\'t win. But that won\'t happen because like him or not Zito has more respect for the game than that. I didn\'t like Dutrow before but I had some grudging respect for what he has been able to accomplish - no more. Yesterday\'s tactics - not the rabbit part - were a black eye for the thoroughbred racing because it was anything but sporting.
Mark
twoshoes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He should have scratched the horse.
>
>
> Why? This is all a bit of a joke. I agree with the
> posts here that said this was not so much to do
> with rabbits as it was intentionally harrassing
> one horse to benefit an uncoupled enrymate, but
> that being said Zito and Stevens let that happen
> by attempting to rate him. He should have blown to
> the front as always and those two pigs would have
> been gasping after trying to chase some quality
> speed after a 1/2.
Seems like Zito doesnt trust this horse. You can see it in the way he\'s been handled. He\'s clearly not a Dr. Fager.
> Nobody ever suggested that Pop
> John
Pop John?
> could warm up Vanlandingham going 9 furlongs
> even if he could run a 1/2 in 44 flat. We saw what
> Commentator did to better horses than this 2 back
> at Belmont, albeit at 7/8. If nothing else
> employing those tactics would have made St. Liam
> \'get down on his belly\' trying to stay close and
> it could have set things up better for Sir Shack
> had Commentator quit anyway.
Sir Shack ran a good race, but St. Liam was in a mere Gallop
> Goldfarb picked up a decent chunk
> rigging the race for his trainer and he deserves
> every penny he got because at least he entered.
Agreed
> Point three - it would serve Dutrow right if Zito
> entered all or as many of his contingent he can
> get in to the Classic and take turns riding herd
> on St. Liam to make sure he doesn\'t win. But that
> won\'t happen because like him or not Zito has more
> respect for the game than that.
Not sure St. Liam is susceptible to different pace challenges. He\'s gonna run his race from what I can see. But the Zito respect for the game comment is interesting. Does that include respect to not tamper illegally with his horses? By the way, didn\'t Zito run rabbits for Strike the Gold?...Oh, he wasn\'t ganging up with different ownership interests at the time though. Loach was intended to lose, but he was intended to lose by the same owner. Just keep in mind as Richiebee pointed out, Goldfarb earning some checks in the Woodward. Did Loach? A rabbit by any other name is still a rabbit and that doesnt\' disrespect the game.
> Dutrow before but I had some grudging respect for
> what he has been able to accomplish - no more.
> Yesterday\'s tactics - not the rabbit part - were a
> black eye for the thoroughbred racing because it
> was anything but sporting.
Sporting? St. Liam is one of the most accomplished horses by Saint Ballado, who is gone now. He\'s clearly a far more professional race horse than Companyhator and without the Triple Crown victories on his resume they are clicking off Grade I\'s for when he retires to stud. He is extremely well bred and only has a small dose (and the best kind) of Mr. Prospector in him. He\'s already lost a couple races he shouldn\'t have lost, one to Companyhator. They are building his residual value. In logic\'s name, why should they play \"sportsmanship\" with a headstrong faux horse thats high on amphetamines? Companyhator is on crack whats sporting about that?
Zito clearly knows there is no sportsmanship at this level. It\'s about winning. You bring a horse to the ball that can dance and if he can\'t dance you don\'t deserve to win.
Chuckles, to say you are missing saddle\'s and twoshoes point is beyond obvious. What Dutrow did was the exact same sort of thing you were the 1st to post, scream, and rant about when the article was written about Ramsey and Frankel talking about the pace scenario between Roses In May and Ghostzapper in last year\'s Classic, and yet this time you don\'t agree? This is just as bad. It is not the fact that they were rabbits, it was the fact that Rodriguez on Crafty Player clearly was strangling his horse back to stay to the outside of Commentator, and when Commentator ran up inside of him, Rodriguez shook him up and sent him hard, not to be sure Commentator was gassed out, but to harass him. Who knows if he was chirping and doing anything else to harass Commentator. This is what everybody has a problem with, and it is high time Dutrow is told that he does not own racing like he thinks at the moment.
I also like your accusing Zito of juicing while defending a known juicer. Now that is a good one. lol
I Disagree, It just goes to show you this horse does need that kind of help in order to win, his trainer just showed you that. This one will usually finish second when he can.
This time they all collapsed exept him. Lets face it there was one other Grade ! type besides ST. L, in the race the rest were non graded or Grade 3 type. The two horses did their job to an unrateable horse (Bellamy Road), It was basically a walkoever from the top of the stretch home.
The worst ever Woodwardfield ever.
NC Tony
Well if he needs that type of race to win, looks like Commentator only can win loose on the lead, just look at every race he\'s ran in and won. Oh wait they was almost all fast paces too. I guess Zito would never enter him and B.Road in the same race for the BC. Right or wrong what Richard did, it wasn\'t aganist the rules. Like I said I think Zito knew what was going to happen and was going for 2nd and 3rd place money. If it was my horse I would have tryed something, like tell G.Stevens to hold him back somewhat try and settle him down, hell why not try in a race like this.
Clown if you don\'t remember Pop John you\'re not even remotely interesting to talk to. Lenzini early 80\'s. Cheap but fast. Also, Loach wasn\'t necessarily intended to win but had some quality. Thirdly, point out the Zito positives if you would please. Strike The Gold was a stone cold closer that would benefit from a legitamate rabbit in soft paced races. St. Liam has tactical speed. As I pointed out, rabbits are one thing, if Dutrow were sure a little extra pace was enough he wouldn\'t have run TWO. Yes, St. Liam won in a gallop, probably would have anyway. The method sucked... and as I pointed out earlier I think Zito and Stevens would have done well to play their game anyway. Lastly, everyone should play sportsmanship. It\'s what the game was built on. Dutrow would run a rabbit in a match race if he could. Oh... and I cashed on that sickening pick 4 because my key won earlier on so this cost me maybe half and I accounted for that in the wager. So I don\'t have an axe to grind but for the sleaze factor. Don\'t get you sometimes Clown... but don\'t need to.
Also - Clearly not a Dr. Fager.. who suggested that??? All I wrote was that if Commentator laid down some fractions and disposed of the junk St. Liam would have had to work harder to get where we got.
> Goldfarb picked up a decent chunk
> rigging the race for his trainer and he deserves
> every penny he got because at least he entered.
>Agreed
Thanks - I feel much better.
Something else I like to add in this, from a sheet reading stand point. Both horses was coming off tops, both on Rag\'s and TG. If you look at TG when Comm bounce the first time it was to a I think a 5 and S.Liam bounce to a -0.2 something like that, thing is when looking I had to say both will bounce but how high, I always go back to those bounce numbers to see. So you could say Comm. might bounce to a 4.2 atless being he is good form, and SL might backed up to a -0.2 or little better, like to see the number\'s come back on this.
>Zito clearly knows there is no sportsmanship at this level. It\'s about winning. You bring a horse to the ball that can dance and if he can\'t dance you don\'t deserve to win.
>
Well... you have a point that I missed in my initial reply. Apply this to Dutrow... We all know St\' Liam can dance so why add two minuets.
King, I\'m sorry, I don\'t see any similarity whatsoever to overtly running horses against a one dimensional speedball and striking a clandestine agreement to fix a race\'s pace. They are not even remotely similar. The one is out in the open and sunshine illuminates it. The other is an agreement in a dark corner.
I hope Rodriguez chirped like a screaming banshee. I would have:
\"Companyhator you gutless filly....come on get some\"
kingcong39 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles, to say you are missing saddle\'s and
> twoshoes point is beyond obvious. What Dutrow did
> was the exact same sort of thing you were the 1st
> to post, scream, and rant about when the article
> was written about Ramsey and Frankel talking about
> the pace scenario between Roses In May and
> Ghostzapper in last year\'s Classic, and yet this
> time you don\'t agree? This is just as bad. It is
> not the fact that they were rabbits, it was the
> fact that Rodriguez on Crafty Player clearly was
> strangling his horse back to stay to the outside
> of Commentator, and when Commentator ran up inside
> of him, Rodriguez shook him up and sent him hard,
> not to be sure Commentator was gassed out, but to
> harass him. Who knows if he was chirping and doing
> anything else to harass Commentator. This is what
> everybody has a problem with, and it is high time
> Dutrow is told that he does not own racing like he
> thinks at the moment.
> I also like your accusing Zito of juicing while
> defending a known juicer. Now that is a good one.
> lol
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 09/11/05 07:26PM by
> kingcong39.
I dont remember Pop John. But I wasn\'t betting much until about 1985 and I started at Hialeah.
There was one part of your post that pretty much made everything else we were forced into discussing moot. The owner of the rabbits cashing checks. They were legally entered.
Heres the thing. If Zito is a decent trainer and has more game than well bred horses and first back pops. He should be able to take the time out to get Companyhator to rate. Same is true of Bellamania. If he can\'t do that, what good is he? Roman Ruler is rating now, but he has a real trainer.
twoshoes Wrote:
>
> > Goldfarb picked up a decent chunk
> > rigging the race for his trainer and he
> deserves
> > every penny he got because at least he
> entered.
>
> >Agreed
>
> Thanks - I feel much better.
CtC,
For the last time, this isn\'t about a horse facing pace pressure having to have things his own way. This is about a horse basically being mugged by two horses that did a lot more than just try to set a fast pace. I couldn\'t care less about Commentator or Zito.
I\'ll leave it at this, the OFFICIAL chart comment, and no, this is not a joke:
\"COMMENTATOR broke well and argued the pace while under attack from both sides, disposed of his assailants after three quarters but was in no shape to handle the winner and gave way in the final furlong.\"
Who thinks Seattle Slew would have laughed at Dutow\'s rabbits and spurted clear of St Liam at the top of the stretch?
Regardless of figures etc... races like the Woodward put SS\'s performance at 12F in perspective. He put away a similar sprinter and a saddle slipped Affirmed and was coming again against a multiple Grade 1 winner deep closer like Exceller at \"12\" furlongs! Another jump or two and he wins. Freaking amazing!
beyer,
My point is we just are not discussing anything of merit. If the chart read the following you might have a case:
\"Companyhator away in good order was soundly bumped by Storm Boot, taken in hand by Stevens he was immediately assaulted from the outside when Rodriguez on Crafty Player repeatedly tattooed him on the nose with the whip shrieking with each strike \"This little piggy loves daylight\". Storm Boot bore out and intimidated the hell out of Companyhator and then Rojas wound up with an elbow pile driver to Companyhators temple stunning the fastest horse in the world. Rojas laughing hysterically was heard to scream \"Steel Cage Match, Steel Cage Match baby\". Companyhator bleeding profusely from the nose and ear surged for the lead and the bleeding immediately stopped due to the six quarts of \"anti bleed\" circulating throughout his system. From behind, Rodriquez on Crafty Player threw a piccadillo into Companyhators flank chirping gleefully \"You can run filly, but you can\'t hide\". Rojas on Storm Boot was heard to yell out. \"Come back here, I\'m gonna kill you and then I\'m gonna kill your stable and burn your barn down.\" Companyhator weakened from the verbal and physical assault by the matadors became some of the best Alpo ever canned.\"
I don\'t have much regard for pure front end horses. Its like this. If all you got is silly break neck speed, you better have a whole lot of it. If you don\'t, if what you need is a race where it all goes your own way or you get beat by 15 lengths, I ain\'t got no sympathy. It was all fair as fair can be and they should do it again. When they do I just hope the field is big enough to bet a perfecta and trifecta with dogfood out of the money.
beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC,
>
> For the last time, this isn\'t about a horse facing
> pace pressure having to have things his own way.
> This is about a horse basically being mugged by
> two horses that did a lot more than just try to
> set a fast pace. I couldn\'t care less about
> Commentator or Zito.
>
> I\'ll leave it at this, the OFFICIAL chart comment,
> and no, this is not a joke:
>
> \"COMMENTATOR broke well and argued the pace while
> under attack from both sides, disposed of his
> assailants after three quarters but was in no
> shape to handle the winner and gave way in the
> final furlong.\"
Chuckles,
I would have thought by now that I would be mature enough to ignore the crap you occasionally post, but I can\'t.
WHo cares what you think of front runners. Anybody with any knowledge of horse racing knows that the tactics employed by Dutrow were very shady. Strangling part of an entry back to sit outside Commentator, while the other part ran a fast pace, all to set up a separately owned entrant, from the same trainer, is bull---- and the type of stuff we don\'t need in racing. Just like the negotiated pace from last year\'s BC. No, they aren\'t perfect correlations, but both suck for horse racing. Commentator is one dimensional and Saint Liam is the better horse and would have won without the rabbits. No argument. Commentator is not great. No argument.
And why exactly is somebody that claims to have not seen a horse race until 1985, comstantly comparing horses to Dr. Fager, who ran in the 60\'s? Just to pile more crap on the board?
I guess Ruth is the best baseball player you ever didn\'t see? Or was it Wee Willie Keeler?
Oh, last point, Saint Liam, Commentator and all the other horses that will run in the BC Classic, all stink, because they haven\'t won at 12 marks.......
CTC,
I think you are missing the small distinction that beyerguy is making. I don\'t think he has a problem with 1 rabbit or even 2 rabbits going out fast. I think he has a problem with the intimidation aspects of the challenges.
Not only that, but UNCOUPLED horses delibrately helping another. People actually were allowed to bet on the entry (morons, of course!)
I don\'t get it, so this horse COMM, can\'t ever run along with other horses ever?? What is Nick going to do now??
This is what Nick said: Nick Zito, the trainer of Commentator and Sir Shackleton, felt that one rabbit would have been sufficient for Dutrow to use.
\"I think he would have won anyway with one rabbit,\" Zito said. \"With two rabbits, obviously there\'s no question he was double-teamed. There\'s nothing against the rules.\"
It\'s that simple there\'s nothing against the rules.....It\'s Richard D. what did you all expect??
It would be one of those classic horseracing ironies (and profitable) if Sun King enters and has what it takes to win the BC Classic.
Class, I don\'t believe in Intimidation being outside the rules or being outside sportmanship. Its done all the time. They call it \"race riding\". Pinning a horse along the rail or giving a small hole along the rail and safely taking it away. Floating a horse wide to intimidate him. It happens all the time. The top jockeys are masters at it. All that is required by the officials is that it is done safely and professionally. Sportmanship is where a jockey or trainer gets beat and says \"congrats they were better\".
I\'ve told this story before so I\'ll summarize. After I bet my first race in 1985...lol, I bet Glitterman to beat a horse named Big Stanley at Calder in a 7 furlong sprint. Glitterman was an exceptional 6 mark horse, but he was advantaged this day at 7 and though the perfecta was only about 22 bucks I had it so many times it was obscene. Glitterman came down and the head Steward said \"He came down because he intimidated the hell out of Big Stanley\". He gave Stanley a small hole on the rail...never closed it...just made him go through it and Stanley balked. They put Stanley up and damage was done by unhappy fans.
Theres is no intimidation in horse racing. Theres no crying either.
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> I think you are missing the small distinction that
> beyerguy is making. I don\'t think he has a problem
> with 1 rabbit or even 2 rabbits going out fast. I
> think he has a problem with the intimidation
> aspects of the challenges.
kev,
\"I don\'t get it, so this horse COMM, can\'t ever run along with other horses ever?? What is Nick going to do now??\"
He\'s obviously a very talented horse and if he\'s still sound he\'s going to beat a lot very good horses in the future. He may eventually even learn to rate and relax (which will help). The real point that CTC and I agree on is that horses like this are often not as good as they look and you don\'t find that out until they get hooked. That goes double when you switch the condition from favorable to unfavorable.
You mean you just thought of this? Good thing those boyz don\'t read web postings, or they\'d really have an edge over us....... shhhhhh.
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I have mixed feelings about rabbits. I don\'t have
> too much of a problem with a trainer making sure a
> one dimensional speed horse doesn\'t have an unfair
> advantage in a paceless race. I have more of a
> problem with sending horses from another owner on
> a suicide mission. As far as I am concerned, that
> means any two owners in the world can sit down
> before the race and give themselves a huge betting
> and purse advantage by working out deals for who\'s
> going for the lead and who is not etc...
>
>