Preliminary thoughts on the Travers:
Saratoga races at 1 1/4 are very demanding. Not the type of race that can easily be won on the front end. This was in evidence as recently as last year when LION HEART and PURGE both faded badly despite the non-demanding pace.
Historically, horses that have run well in the Belmont Stakes have fared quite well in here. An ability to finish at 1 1/2 at Belmont bodes well for the ability to finish in here.
My thoughts are that FLOWER ALLEY is too aggressive early and his pattern (Pletcher trained) does not suggest improvement. I do not like him at the distance....ditto Roman Ruler.
IMO, BELLAMY ROAD is to Zito in here what COMMENTATOR was to him in the Whitney. Run with him early and you\'re cooked,let him go and he may wire the field. The exception here is that BR has not raced in 3 months and is unlikely to win this on or off the pace.
Perhaps ANDROMEDA\'s HERO gives Zito back to back Travers wins at 5-1. Then again he always likes to be left with too much to do.
Good Luck,
joe B.
My thinking on the Travers is similar to yours, but I\'d have a very difficult time punching a ticket on Andromeda\'s Hero. Unless something crazy happens pace-wise, I think one of them will either get the 10F or stagger home to beat AH.
First of all, you will get better than 5-1 on Andormeda\'s Hero, if you want to bet him. Maybe 10-1, but not less than 8-1.
Class, as a \"pace handicapper\", I am surprised you would even suggest that something crazy will happen pace-wise in this race. The pace is very obvious in this race, barring stumbling starts. Bellamy will be on the lead, and loose. Flower Alley will be second. Reverberate maybe 3rd. Roman Ruler will be in the middle to back of the pack. Johnny V has to make the decision when to go get Bellamy Road. I would be surprised to see the 1/2 mile fraction any quicker than 47, assuming a normal track speed on Saturday.
I don\'t know about anybody else, but I for one am glad to see that Bellamy Road entered here. It makes the race tons more interesting. Before his entry, I think you were looking at 6-5 each on Flower Alley and Roman Ruler. Bellamy drives interest because there are many out there who still believe in him, based on the Wood, and will bet him here, thinking the Derby was the exception and not the norm. There are others who think that he was exposed in the Derby and he is more reputation than real horse. Plus the 112 day layoff into a 1 1/4 race is not ideal, at least to me.
Any thoughts out there as to who will go off favored? Who will be 2nd choice and who will be 3rd choice?
To me it is at least 90% that one of the big three wins here, Flower Alley, Roman Ruler or Bellamy Road.
RR has the look of the forty niner or coronados quest - two horses that won the haskel then barely held on in a slowly run travers. FA is a mystery. i\'m not a big fan, but he will be eating very big vitamins heading in. it\'s all or nothing for BR. still not sure which one it is though. chek and AH are slow, but they could pick them off if it collapses. declans moon runs by these in a gallop. these colts might get buried in the fall. i wish a horse like concern was entered here. picks later.
jimbo,
I agree that your pace scenario is the most likely one. I just never assume that my \"most likely\" pace scenario is the one that will occur. It\'s just one more probability.
I think it would be suicidal for FA to run with BR early. But I want to bet against Bellamy Road in this race despite the fact that I think he will get loose. Zito may be doing well off layoffs lately, but it\'s still a very tough task to bring a horse back into a Grade 1 10F race off a layoff this long - especially off an inury.
IMO, BR had one huge race (the Wood) and it came on what I considered a somewhat suspect track against Grade 2/Grade 3 horses. His Derby was a lot better than it looks on paper because he was being used hard on that pace while wide to keep his position (even if the outside was better that day). All told, I think his reputation off the Wood exceeds what he has demonstrated to date. Add that to the layoff and I think he\'s a bet against if the odds are fairly low.
The real question for me is seperating FA and RR. I became a fan of FA off his Derby performance - which I thought was very good. RR beat him last time out and I think he might be a shade the better horse right now (though that is far from certain based on speed figures), but IMO it\'s just a matter of time before RR falls apart. IMO, it\'s a close call between those two and figuring out which of them will like 10F more complicates the matter.
Jimbo--
Anything faster than a :47 on that track at 1 1/4 would give AH a hell of a shot.
But CH is probably correct. Either FA or RR will assme the lead at the quarter pole and hold off AH. I can\'t see BR being a factor at the eight pole in this. This is not BIRDSTONE in that BR will be running the whole 1 1/4, not coming from mid-pack.
REPENT did very well off the layoff, but it was understandable based on his running style.
Good Luck,
joe B.
Does this mean derby1592 won\'t be offering up his eloquent oratory in the ROW section of this site?
Wasn\'t he the only guest handicapper to offer up his opinion?
Based on the views on this board, I guess I have a shot at getting the 3-1 that I would like to get on Bellamy Road.
The Wood was NOT his only good race. His first race this year was as fast as anything that Roman Ruler or Flower Alley had run this year until the Jim Dandy and Haskell. (I have not seen those figures, but I assume they are in the negative nunmber range).
Bellamy Road didn\'t just beat the Wood field, he destroyed them. Scrappy T. came back and ran very well in two races after that. Yes, I know the saddle supposedly slipped. You couldn\'t see it, watching the replay, but some people want to attribute 15 lengths to it. This horse ran a very big race in the Wood, around two turns, showing no signs of distance limitations. I am not a pedigree expert, but I will take his pedigree over both Flower Alley (Distorted Humor on top) and Roman Ruler (Fu Peg on top), as far as ability to get 1 1/4. I know that RR has a brilliant pedigree, I just think that he won\'t want 1 1/4.
I agree that the 1 1/4 off a 112 day layoff is a tall order. Which is why I want 3-1. If he was fit coming into the race, I would take 3-2. He will be loose on the lead, saving ground, setting a reasonable pace. This horse has a beautiful effortless stride when he is right. He will be opening up on the field as they hit the far turn. After opening up 5 in the stretch, he will get leg weary late because of the layoff, and win by a diminishing length.
I just don\'t know who the horse is that will be getting close at the end.........
Jimbo,
BR\'s race prior to the Wood did get a negative number on TG, but others didn\'t make it as fast.
He did destroy that Wood field, but I think part of that was the phenomenon I often bring up where a dominant speed horse meets a lot of inferior horses. The inferior horses often try to run with the superior horse (like Scrappy T did) or keep up and they wind up getting beat by a lot more lengths than the figures would have suggested. I played Scrappy T in his next start out of the Wood because I was almost certain he was a lot better than he looked based on the figure he earned in the Wood chasing BR.
What I think it comes down to is that IMO a -5 loose on the lead against weaker horses on a track that\'s playing kindly to speed is not the same thing as a -5 against solid horses when you are tested strongly on a more even track. So if his reputation is based on his lone -5 and a -1 (or thereabouts) against very overmatched horses while loose in Florida, IMO he\'s overrated even if he\'s better than these.
Beyer gave it a 121 or so. I call that \"as fast\".
Rags gave it the equivalent of a negative 2 or 3, which is not as fast, but still very fast.
I hear your points and if Afleet Alex was in the field, I would probably agree with you.
There are two other \"runners\" in the race.
Roman Ruler, who has soundness issues and will be coming back on three weeks rest after a career top (I assume the Haskell was a career top).
Flower Alley, who is the horse to beat, in my mind. At times in the Jim Dandy, he looked very good, and I guess the overall number was sharp. But what did he beat? Was that field any better than the Wood? I say \"no\".
I think that makes Bellamy very playable at 3-1.
jimbo,
\"Beyer gave it a 121 or so. I call that \"as fast\". \"
I was talking about the Florida race.
Everyone agreed on the speed of the Wood. I disagree on the quality. Like I said, I think he may be better than these off that Wood race, but not by as much as the figures indicate and he was hurt etc... Not sure what I would make the fair price, but if he\'s bet similar to the other two, I\'ll take one of the other two. It\'s not easy tossing the fastest horse.
I think BR will be the chalk at around 9/5 to 2/1.
Just my opinion.
xichibanx
The morning line agrees with you as BR drew the fence.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
OHH NOOOO!!!!
THIS is Deja Vu All over again.
We need to get into something new, like what impact if any will this layoff have in a 10F race. Why do we still think Fu Peg horses can\'t get 10F when they seem to get distance very well on both dirt and turf?
Once I get the sheets and the form I will be back with more.
NC Tony
PS Who will be there the last week of meet? I plan to be there Thurs through Monday. any Seminars?
NC Tony
BR looks like a lock here – will save ground given the rail draw; clearly the Fastest 3yo (-4) on record; Zito has become unbeatable with the layoff move; Looking for 2/1 or better; FA is typical of TP recent winners that have exited the Jim Dandy; Plus FA was drifting/bearing out in his last start - PASS; RR – clearly there are distance limitations; Beat Zito second-stringer (SUN KING) last out and looked ordinary in doing so; Reverberate is a gamer, and appears most likely of the stalker types to move forward; Someone needs to tell DGM that CD opens in November – PASS; Chekhov still waiting for this one to show up – too slow; AH is a typical PLODDER – always tempting – not likely;
Will solidified picks after sheets become available.
Interesting comments from Bailey and Velasquez about the tactics for this race.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/67930.html
BR has an opening line of 2-1... there is no way in heck he is going to be near that at post time. He\'s more likely 7-5 given the Zito/layoff/huge Wood fig combo....the oddsmaker is very out to lunch on the morning line. There is, IMO, 0% chance he is not the post time favorite and 5% chance he is not less than 2-1.
Respectfully disagree.
I don\'t think they will make this horse the favorite off a 112 day layoff. Roman Ruler is the horse that looks most likely to be favored, IMHO.
Although I don\'t disagree that BR might not be 2-1. Outside the top three, nobody else takes much money. You might see all three of the big three around the 2-1 mark.
Class,
Those are very very interesting remarks from Bailey and Velasquez. Sounds like neither one of them thinks much of BR in this spot. Bailey\'s point about BR being pointed for the 7 furlong race until just recently could be very key and I didn\'t think about it when I posted my initial analysis. The horse may have too much speed in him if he was being pointed to sprint with Lost in the Fog. I wonder if Bailey has seen BR on the track and factored that into his comment about not thinking the horse will be fit. Normally I don\'t care what jockeys say but Bailey is the exception. Say what you want about whether he is riding as good as in the past, but he definitely classifies as a \"cerebral jockey\".
I think I am back to the drawing board on this race.
Waiting for Jerry to post figures and see if that sheds light.
Jimbo,
I agree.
You would think that if you are preparing a horses for a 10F race you would go about a little differently than if you are preparing a horse for a 7F race. If the connections really weren\'t sure about which way to go, it\'s hard to imagine he\'s 100% for this race. I want to qualify that a bit though. I have such a low opinion of Zito that it\'s entirely possible that the horse is perfectly prepared for 10F except that Zito was trying to get him ready for 7F. :)
Seriously, the rail will help and after looking at the PPs I\'m even more impressed with his Derby than my initial thinking. So I\'m less sure also.
As a general rule I just love betting against long layoffs when they go into Grade 1 races. I think it\'s a lot tougher than getting a horse ready for a more minor spot. So I\'m going to bet against him. I haven\'t decided which way to go yet.
Class you are the most confused guy on this board, if you agree with Jimbo\'s most recent post then what the heck did you mean or say before..or better yet why did you write it.
Right now the horse with the best current form without a doubt is Roman Ruler. RR current form reminds me quite a bit of Forty Niner back in the day. Zito is taking an educated gamble with BR but this field is much better than the walkover field of NY Breds he beat in the wood (albeit Naughty NYers did win the \"Big Apple \" today). One of these days Checkov will run a big race not sure if this is the one yet, but I never dismiss the Italian Frenchmen skills.
\"IF\" the pace is contested by BR/FA/RR early enough DGM may be the right horse for this race.
To Me the Value bet of the Day may be the $1.0MM Pick 4. Lets get cracking to find the value there. This race in and of itself may not provide the value we all want.
NC Tony
NCT,
Jimbo seems to be having some second thoughts about whether or not BR is prepared properly. I never had any second thoughts about that. I think coming into a Grade 1 race off a 112 day layoff is a huge disadvantage even when the trainer is skilled with layoffs.
My assessment of BR\'s ability has changed a little. When I viewed his PP\'s for the Derby along side Flower Alley\'s, he looked better than I remembered. Despite the figures they earned in that race, IMO they both ran very well. FA has since demontrated that.
I think BR is probably the best horse, but I don\'t think he\'s best by enough to overcome the layoff disadvantage. So if he\'s the favorite or close, I\'ll take a stand against him.
I am less sure what to do with RR and FA. They ran similar races against each other and both subsequently ran very good races next time out. IMO, neither inspires clear cut confidence in their ability to get 10F. So I can\'t seperate them on that. I think RR is probably slightly more likely to fall apart given his history of hoof problems and Baffert as the trainer.
Interesting pattern for REVERBERATE, if one is simply looking at the Travers from a Thorograph perspective.
Bounces off of a new top early in his 3yo campaign then comes back with a new top in his 3rd start of the year. Off of a 2 month layoff, he runs his 3rd new top and then improves off of it 3 weeks later followed by his Belmont debacle.
In the Jim Dandy, off of an 8 week layoff, REVERBERATE matches his top. A 2 point move forward (quite possible for a horse who has already run 4 new tops this year) and regressions by FA and RR, make him an interesting entry. Pedigree bodes well for the distance if we assume REVERBERATE is a more mature and stronger colt at this point.
Any opinions on a horse who may have a higher ceiling than the others.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
This may be the race for Andromeda\'s Hero. I still look back at the finish of the Arkansas Derby and am waiting for that same late run. At 12-1, it\'s bombs away!!!!
SPA,
This one (AH) doesn\'t look that good in G1 races and in this race in particular. That was an optical illusion with one horse running out with another one pulling up. Good luck to you with AH.
DGM scary bad number TGJB refers to was equal to the scary bad number Bellamy ran in last race. So betting Bellamy is not equally scary?..............HMMMM
Bellamy Road obviously scary fast one out of 6 times but also has soundness issues. His 3 yo top while incredible was achieved with ideal conditions against a very weak bunch. Think this one has been treated with kid gloves due to connections and breeding value. We may never see that race again. If he doesn\'t run very well this time would you be surprised to see him retired? Project this one anywhere from a -2 to a + 2. Your guess is as good as mine.
Andromeda's Hero Has won only a Non graded stakes and is typically slower than most in here. Finished a beaten 3rd by 11 3/4 (5 horse field), 2nd by 7 and 8th by 7.5 and the famous phantom finish at OP 3rd by 8.3/4. Too slow and lucky if he completes a superfecta. Project him to be between +2 and +4.
Checkov MSW winner so far but obviously more has been expected especially for the $3.3MM purchase price. Cycling to new top in my opionon and Stevens keeps the faith. One of these dayshe will pop a big oneand Biancone\'s been on role lately. Project and in the $ finish at about -0.5 to +1.
Roman Ruler looked the part in last race. Expect further continued improvement albeit not major. Looks to be one of two coming in at peak form. Project anywhere from -2 to -1. To me he\'s the one to beat. Has Bailey in the saddle and the right running style for this one.
Don\'t get Mad last was a clunker for sure. Stevens chose Chekhov instead of this one. Project an improved effort here and lifetime top. May not be enough, unless the BIG 3 hook up early and often. Will play this one underneath but will play one ticket including this guy on top should the worst case scenario for the big three develop. I doubt they will run around Merry go round style like they did in the BC last year or this years Whitney. Project from a -0.5 to +1.
Reverberate still eligible for NW2. Looking for a check at best. Too slow for these. Project from +2 to +4. Good luck Sal.
Flower Alley Ran a career top off of a nice set up in race for that one. Already been beaten by RR two back. Tends to want to press pace but can\'t let BR get away easy either to have any kind of shot. Expect this one to press BR from half mile mark on. Let's see if he has stamina to get 10F. Also potential to regress off of latest top.
I see this race going one of three ways. Since you have 3 deep closers in this race and BR the only legit early speed, Scenario 1) BR on open and easy lead early with little pressure coming until the final turn. If that happens start going to the windows to cash your tickets for BR. Scenario 2) Flower Alley and Reverberate stalk and press BR from the start or at least half mile pole with RR sitting just off them. RR runs them down the lane with BR/Chekhov and DGM and AH all potentially in the tri/super.
Scenario 3 least likely is that the Big three all hook up often and early and grind themselves into the ground. DGM will run them down deep stretch providing he best value scenario for gimmicks with BR/RR/Chekhov underneath.
I am betting both Scenario 2 and 3, with Win on RR at 3-1 or better and Exacta\'s & Tri's with RR/BR-DGM-Chekhov, then a small one with DGM/RR, BR, and Checkhov
Good luck to you all.
The Graveyard of Favorites lives for another day.
NC Tony
Tony-- yeah, BR only has one neg 5. But the 2yo races were strong for a 2yo, and the first out at 3 better than anyone else here had run to that point in their career, by quite a bit. If the horse had bounced off that, and was coming into this race fresh for a layoff trainer, I would probably bet him WITHOUT the neg 5-- the zero alone would put him in this, and he\'s supposed to be better now than then.
I would also point out that Zito layoff popping with other horses aside, THIS horse has already run tops off a layoff twice, if you include his first out-- and the 3yo debut was a 15 length win where it\'s possible he could have run faster.
Jerry,
I always knew you were a man of conviction. Unless you know more about this horses physical condition then me sitting here in NC, I agree with the analysis about running new tops fresh but none of those were at 10F. 10F is the big question mark off the layoff for me and he just might need one,while the other two are ready to run now (that we know). I do agree that Zito has them cranked earlier than he used to. Made a nice score with him last year with Birdstone on Bel day the Travers last year using that scenario.
What I don\'t know at this point in time how the odds will play out. If BR goes at 2-1 or better it may be the best bet in quite some time. Somehow I just see him getting bet down below that by the Big Boys and the 10F he might hit the wall late.
I guess you are suggesting that I reconsider my last post and bet Scenario 1!!
His form is unlike GZ with planned rest. He seems to be ouchy.
Thanks for the additive info. Will be simulcasting tomorrow.
Is the Pick 4 as chalky as it appears?
NC Tony
PS Will you be up there duing the last weekend?
Tony-- it turns out that I will not be up there Labor Day. And while there are some different circumstances, the two Birdstone layoff wins were at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2.
TGJB,
The one small problem I have with your layoff angle is that horses like Commentator (beating limited allowance horses), Sun King beating High Limit (who was also off the same layoff) and some others that came back successfully did so into relatively soft spots or at least reasonable spots for bringing a horse back.
Those kinds of layoffs aren\'t nearly as tough as coming back into a Grade 1 race against sharp horses of similar ability (at least according the ROI stats I have seen). Often, these kinds of horses are among the best \"bet againsts\" you will ever find in Grade 1 races.
Granted Zito did it with Birdstone (thought the Belmont was more a matter of Smarty and others toasting each other). So maybe he\'s just so skilled at it you have to give him a little more of the benefit of the doubt relative to other highly skilled layoff trainers that generally fail at it, but I think you still have to consider it a negative because of all the circumstance.
1. BR has 1 huge effort (The Wood) and one very good effort (in Florida - I agree that that was pretty huge for that time of year), but both were under ideal conditions against pretty weak groups.
2. He was not laid off for a freshening. He was hurt.
3. Zito wasn\'t sure whether he was going to run 7F or 10F as recently as a few days ago. That doesn\'t sound like a man that was preparing a horse specifically for a 10F race. It sounds like a man that was getting his horse fit enough to run.
Anyway, I\'m not saying he has no chance or anything. My negative view is based on the premise that he\'ll be the favorite and I wouldn\'t want him as the favorite. At some price he\'s obviously more attractive and I would refrain from betting against him.
TGJB:
With regards to Reverberate, the analysis states that he \"... ran a good one, bounced with trouble in the Belmont, and then returned to his best last time. There\'s nothing wrong with this pattern.\"
Is it possible to take an alternative view, that after the disastrous start in the Belmont Santos didn\'t ask anything from Reverberate? Can you disregard the Belmont for the sake of pattern analysis? Is it realistic to say that he has run two new tops, pairing the new top in his last race?
Reverberate\'s breeding is very solid for this race; his dad won the Travers and the Derby, and his dam sire won the BC Classic, all at 10f.
Not a big field, but an interesting Travers. Only AH (too slow, too far back) and DGM (will be looking for the Twin Spires when he turns for home, won\'t see them) are not possible winners IMO.
People appear to think that the distance of 1 1/4 will be a problem for Bellamy Road. I have to disagree, the horse has a very high cruising speed. I saw this first hand at Gulfstream Park when Bellamy Road ran a nice Maria\'s Mon colt into the ground before the first turn. Coming for home he was just rolling along. The distance off the layoff won\'t be a problem.
CH---
I agree with TGJB in that BR will run a good race. I do not think he will win, however. Outside of the patterns and numbers comes the conditioning factor.
This is not a mile on a speed favoring GP surface or a 1 1/8 on a souped up Aqueduct surface. This is a 1 1/4 on a demanding racetrack over that distance. Anyone who disagrees should note how superior horses like MEDAGLIA D\'ORO, CORONADO\'s QUEST, and HOLY BULL barely held on in their TRAVERS wins.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Point taken Joe B. No doubt, it is a demanding race. That is why in many years horses coming over from Monmouth, having run 1 1/8 in the Haskell are bet againsts. (many times that track carries horses with distance limitations a little longer).
However, I don\'t necessarily think that Medaglia D\'Oro, Holy Bull and Coronado\'s Quest are superior to Bellamy Road. Bellamy still has to prove his brilliance, but it is too soon to say those horses were superior. Medaglia and Holy Bull were pushed very hard on the lead in their races and Coronado\'s Quest was not a 1 1/4 horse and ran into a very good horse in Victory Gallop.
Bellamy probably has things his own way on the lead tomorrow. Much different than Medaglia and Holy Bull. And I think Victory Gallop was superior to Roman Ruler and Flower Alley. (relative to their generation. I don\'t want to start the whole \"are horses getting faster\" chain again).
Joe,
I agree.
\"MANY\" of the Grade 1 layoff horses that I bet against over the years ran teriffic races without winning. I think what I am talking about here probably doesn\'t even show up much in the speed figures. It\'s more of an intangible conditioning thing. In the last 1/16 or 1/8, a lot of them came up just a little too short to sustain a ding dong battle through the stretch with an opponent of similar class. The speed figures look fine, but you wind up ripping up a lot of short priced tickets and getting a low ROI. Put the same horse in a lower level stakes or a weak field and the figure doesn\'t change that much but the competitive battle through the stretch changes a lot and allows the horse to win. I\'l guess we\'ll see. I mean he\'s probably going to get an extremely easy trip loose on the lead from the rail. Maybe that will make the difference. That\'s what\'s making this race such a great one. I\'m really happy Zito opted for this...not that a matchup with LITF wouldn\'t have been fun too. :)
All good points. While there are factors that point to BR getting beat tom\'w (layoff, conditioning, distance),there may not be anyone good enough to take advantage.
PS: Not sure BR will be strolling along for long. Got to think that REVERBERATE and or FLOWER ALLEY go after him if he tries to go anything slower than a :47.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
With a fall campaign planned, the King\'s Bishop, though shorter in distance, may have been more demanding on BR.
Speaking of LITF, does anyone envision an improved enough effort from STORM SURGE where he may give the chalk lovers a scare in deep stretch. Not a bad prep by Stewart putting some speed in a horse who had been a router this year which ended up being a bad decision. Looks like 7f may be ideal for this guy.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Holy bull not superior to Bellamy Road. How about 13-16 lifetime with a Gr. I at 2 and 5 more at three. If he was pointed for this race and had a solid prep he may deserve 2-1. I don\'t think there is any way to predict how he will run. I also don\'t see any way that Johnny V. lets him get loose. I think BR cooks them both with Roman Ruler stalking third or fourth with reverberate. At the top of the stretch the top two fall apart. RR/rev/all in the tri. ex\"s rr/rev and chek
totally agree with ss. Very fast two year old sprint top and looks to be sitting on a big race. If only there was more legit speed to make litf use a couple of gears early on.
No doubt that Holy Bull had an awesome career. I loved the horse, he started out Monmouth based, at a time when that was the only track I went to.
But like I said, we have not seen enough of Bellamy Road to assert where he fits among the other generations.
I also meant speed figure superiority, not necessarily wins and money earned. On both Tgraph and Beyer, Bellamy\'s Wood was a monster monster race on figures.
Last point. The outcome is certainly in doubt until after the race is over, but there is no doubt at all in my mind that you are wrong about the pace scenario. No way that Johnny V is going to run early with Bellamy Road. IF bellamy loses it will be because he wasn\'t good or fit enough. If Flower Alley loses it will be becasue he bounced or couldn\'t get the distance. Johnny V will not hook this horse before the turn. Book it. He doesn\'t think he needs to and it is not his horse\'s style. The Jim Dandy was the only race that Flower Alley showed any early speed and he went 23.4 to the quarter. It was a paceless race. Bellamy will be on the lead and setting his pace. Whether he can win off the layoff at 1 1/4 is a much tougher question.
I say he does. I also think you toss Flower Alley. Yesterday\'s race by Ashado was the final piece to that decision. Don\'t Get Mad will be the suck up late for 2nd horse after Bellamy runs them into the ground.
Good luck
Bellamy Road has an ugly pattern. Roman Ruler is coming back pretty quick off a big race. I think Flower Alley has the best chance of the short priced horses to run his race, and I expect even him to back up a little.
I\'ve seen a few people here like Andromeda\'s Hero. He has a nice pattern, but he\'s a little slower than...Don\'t Get Mad, who figures to be dismissed on the win end. I will excuse his last off the cross-country ship. 10-1? He ran a four as a 2yo so it wouldn\'t really shock me if he had another little forward move in him here. Picks up the pieces late? I won\'t empty my piggy bank, but I\'ll take him to win and small exactas under Bellamy Road (1X) and FAlley (2X).
Good luck to all.
HP
The more I look at this race the more I think the correct thing to do is pass it and enjoy it.
Where\'s the value?
There\'s usually a lot of value in Grade 1 races playing against horses that are favored despite a long layoff. However, this one is being trained by Nick Zito (who is obviously skilled at bringing them back) and is highly likely to get a very good pace scenario.
His major competitors, FA and RR, are both a least a little suspect at 10F.
RR has had hoof problems for awhile and IMO it\'s just a matter of time before Baffert works this horse into another setback and he often does with promising lightly raced horses (and probable rtirement).
Ashado threw in a clinker yesterday and even though TP\'s horses have been running very well for the last few days - Carninooch (big new top), Adieu (Graded Stakes win), Maddalena (good second after tough duel in Victory Ride Stakes) - her performance was hardly confidence inspiring.
Looking for new tops from Reverberate and Don\'t Get Mad. I can\'t knock anyone taking the fastest horse here if they get their price (I\'d need 3-1) but I\'m going to take a pass on the layoff and I think RR bounces coming back a little quick. Top two keyed in multi race wagers and in an exacta box with Flower Alley.
Good luck all.
I can't see investing more than token money in this Travers. These are competent horses, but you have to suspect most of them are survivors more than the cream of the crop. Some still think Bellamania is the crop's top horse and what he does at Saratoga Saturday will shed additional light upon whether the Wood was a one time anomaly or whether he's got the potential to be mentioned in the same breath as Afleet Alex or Smarty Jones. There's a lot to factor in trying to ascertain where Bellmania stands. First and foremost being whether he's run as fast as some of the reputation figure makers maintain. In that regard, I know private figure makers that have his Wood only one length faster than Flower Alley's Jim Dandy.
Another issue with the Travers is to ask what impacted Bellamania's fade in the Derby? Some are convinced he was on the golden part of the track until the stretch run, but that running over the deeper going late wasn't why he faded. Where you were on the strip appears to have played as big a role in the Derby as how fast you ran early. At least that is the consensus among some pretty astute handicappers. In that regard Flower Alley ran the Derby quicksand and all things considered held up pretty dang well. He's also golden at the Spa and a projected third choice with Bellamania going off at a probable 7-5 upon fast figure reputation.
Lastly, you have to wonder about the sudden change of plans by Zito. Its quite probable Zito eyed the entries and said "This is a chance to speed pop em like we did in the Wood and even if he's not up to the trip, his presence gives Andromeda's Hero a lift". (You have to remember Hero and Alley have run dead close to each other.) But in the end analysis, these are not the top horses of the crop and other than Bellamania there is no committed front ender. If Bellamania can't beat the survivor tier with the tactical situation he likes, you can kiss those 120 Beyers goodbye. You won't see them again, even if you think you saw them the first time. But that said, Flower Alley ain't no Shrinking Violet and unless Alley's saddle slips at the four mark pole, don't count upon another Wood optical illusion.
But then, I'm looking to beat Foggy in the King' Bishop as well. "Some men see thing that are and ask why?" I dream things that never were and ask: "Why not?"
P.S. Roman Ruler's foot issues are healed. Sure he could pop another, but its additional speculation.
Have to like BELLAMY off the layoff with Zito. Wins this eaSy. I don\'t trust most of the others to get 1 1/4. I will put HERO and MAD under BELLAMY in exactas.
This is a weak bunch for BELLAMY to beat for a cool million.
Well, hes 5-2 right now. I\'m dead on the pick 4 without him.
5-2 is what Tgraphers got on the last -5 horse going 10 marks. Still think he\'ll sink some at off time. Theres questions with fitness this time but the listed competition isn\'t as tough. Though I\'m not certain why anyone would believe Bellamania is a better 10 mark bet on this track than some of the others.
I had Flower Alley in the pick 4. I\'ll just root for him.
Pletcher gets the Monkey off his back with a win in todays Travers.
Distorted Humor to win, I mean Flower Alley.........
That aint a horse....t graph was wrong about him
Theres no reason to believe a 2:02:76 with a last quarter in 26:48 is a negative 5, but similar to Wood day, there is no proximate 2 turn race to triangulate the event. It was a legit Saratoga time, but both Roman Ruler and Flower Alley looked more prone to regress than anything.
Bellamania had it all his own way and gave it up in the last furlong that plagued him in the Derby. Roman Ruler chucked it in late as well. Bellamania didn\'t relax early either, but he doesn\'t appear to be the rateable type. He is also still one of the most awkward movers I\'ve ever seen. Zito got a big one out of Commentary, maybe he can spot this guy on the right day. One thing you have to be certain of, hes not gonna run Commentator and this one together in the same race. Still have to think its gonna require an uncontested lead to get this one up at 9 marks.
IT LOOKED LIKE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE IF THE HORSE CAN RUN HIS RACE FRESH , ETC . THAT WAS QUESTION #1 AND THE RACE IN A HANDICAPPING CONTEXT .
CTC,
There was nothing surprising about this race. BR ran very well, but he came up a tad short in the last 1/8 just like most Grade 1 layoffs do when they are tackled by a horse of similar ability that has an edge in conditioning.
I don\'t think this race says anything about the Wood figure other than it was earned under ideal conditions - a loose lead, a track that was kind to speed, no one in the race of high enough quality to challenge him like FA did. They all do their fastest running when everything is perfect.
FA ran a terrific race and got a perfect ride. I guess 10F is well within his range and Pletcher is rolling again. Other than Ashado, he had a very good week.
I agree with one thing. Zito would be crazy to run BR against Commentator. They would almost certainly compromise each other\'s chances.
Flower Alley looked better than Roman Ruler on the basis of the Dwyer. Monmouth favors speed and it wasn\'t a shock that Roman Ruler just wore down Sun King there. Those two are good milers.
Lets be real here though. The whole issue pertains to a LIGHTNING quick track on April 9th and an inability to triangulate Bellamania\'s effort with another representative two turn race. Do you really think Don Six, Medallist and Forest Danger all equaled the six mark Aqueduct track record on the same day without a blistering surface? Never mind Foggy, I still think he\'s gonna get his hat handed to him as soon as he moves up out of the 3YO\'s. Anyway without the ability to use a variant, many figure makers were left with extrapolation from previous efforts. Survivalist had run a 4 in his Gotham Mile, so Tgraph assigned him a 4 for the Wood, based upon probabilities he probably repeated. This despite the impression he wants no real part of two turns, which was subsquently born out. Once that was done the beaten lengths equated to -5 for Bellamania. All along some said WAIT A MINUTE there. You can look at the Wood field and its clear many flat out collapsed in that race. Scrappy T nearly dead heated for the place with a slipped saddle his trainer thought cost him as much as 10 lengths. Why couldn\'t Bellamania have run a Negative 1 on that track? Oh, because he ran it in 1:47 and tied Riva Ridge\'s track record right? No, because that would have given Survivalist an 8 and he couldn\'t have run an 8 trying two turns for the first time right?
If some think Bellamania lost because he wasn\'t tight, all I can say is back him at 10 marks next time. Suburban or Jockey Club Gold Cup. He\'s a competent -1 horse and thats what he was. He ran into a -2 horse is all and he ain\'t got the gas to get by that kind of speed.
Chuckles...he was short....this is a really nice colt.
B.R. looked like hes\' going to dominate all come cup day.
Rare is it when I see such a presence on the track vieing against the best in his age bracket
PARTYpokerON!
Doubt he was short. Zito\'s new format is ready to pop with the career top. Just review his results from the last year. This horse was greased for a big time effort. Anyone doubting that just scan his p.p.\'s under Zito. Flower Alley has more speed than many gave him credit for, he had Bellamania measured from the outset and was poised to make him pound spastic at the sand any time he wanted. (And Alley though improving, isn\'t among the best of this bunch.) What\'s going to be Bellamania\'s achilles heel is that he wants the lead but he\'s not a world class burner nor a fast accellerator. He\'s too awkward to be. Couldn\'t hold a candle to horses like King Glorious or even Lion Heart for that matter, let alone a Spend a Buck or a Seattle Slew. Its a good thing Alex or a fit Bandini or an on form Greeley\'s Galaxy, or even a ready to run Scrappy T. weren\'t in this one.
I stated after the Withers or Preakness that I would take Scrappy T. in a match race with Bellamania. If they meet again at 10 marks I guarantee Scrappy comes out better upon the head to head.
You gotta be real careful listening to Zito these days. He\'s a good trainer, but he\'s all about saying glowing things to ingratiate himself with owners. The Boss makes management decisions quickly. Don\'t think for a moment Nicky isn\'t factoring business. You also gotta be real careful about blindly accepting a contestable number on its face.
I dont think hes a 10 mark horse. The results make that pretty clear. Beaten soundly at that distance when he couldn\'t employ his favored running style and then getting it all his own way in a weak 10 mark bunch and having the laurels snatched from him by a horse that had him measured the whole way and who himself was unlikely to be peak form and stretching at the distance.
Anyway I\'m done talking about him. I know where he stands. Hes a 10 mark money burner. If the entrants favor him he could earn Grade I at 9 marks, but Flower Alley is gonna beat him at that distance too.
I consider this matter closed.
Chuckles...he was short......
CTC,
I\'ve understood your argument about the Wood figure since the beginning. I think it\'s pretty pointless to debate that aspect of it because we\'ll never know. The very fact that those that gave him a super fast number are still confident says as much.
The part that I think is worthy of debate is whether a -5 (or a -3, or a -1..) earned with a loose lead on a track that was kind to speed against Grade 3 animals is equal to wire to wire win with pressure from another Grade 1 animal on an honest track.
Certainly the former in your equation is a potential bet against while the latter most likely is not. Assuming the horse is not running back to quickly. So having said that there is a diffference.
Bellamy Road ran VERY WELL yesterday and when challenged fought back gamely. So if you are looking for any clues how he may handle the latter if and when that scenario arises.
If you had your eyes open. You got it...........
I\'m making futures for the BC on Bellamy...without any hesitation.
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> The part that I think is worthy of debate is
> whether a -5 (or a -3, or a -1..) earned with a
> loose lead on a track that was kind to speed
> against Grade 3 animals is equal to wire to wire
> win with pressure from another Grade 1 animal on
> an honest track.
Agreed the conditions were not likely to favor the same open length victory. The issue in the long run though has to be the reliability of the figure. Is the horse truly capable of the speed assigned in the figure? Do you really think a front end horse that gets hooked with 3 marks to go is gonna run slower than one that cruises those last 3 marks due to his rivals coming unglued and their equipment coming undue?
On the numbers some actually anticipated Flower Alley getting buried by five lengths or more. People bet money on it and barring form going south, that just wasn\'t ever going to happen, even with the tactical advantage. Next time, don\'t be surprised if Flower Alley wins by more due to a change in the tactical conditions. I think Alley has shown more. Distorted Humor is not a bad sire, Funny Cide, Commentator. Who really thought he was less likely to get the distance, especially on the Jim Dandy? They are relatively closely matched animals and the tactical considerations prevented me from betting the race. Bounce possibility negated a perfecta with them as well.
I hope TGJB has a season to Distorted Humor. If he does, he\'s in the catbirds seat.
Don\'t underestimate the savvy ride by Johnny V. They went and got their position down the backstretch then as Bellamy began to move they briefly let him go on. Watch the tape again he maybe spotted him another length. He didn\'t allow what you are talking about to happen where he chased a much faster pace than normal and came unglued but he didn\'t let the pacesetter get too far away.
When he made his move it was aggresive.
Flower Alley has shown more.
TGJB\'s share in Distorted Humor just went up. They will probably move the fee to $100,000 which over the next ten years means he will gross a cool MILLION $$$$.
Be careful with that futures play, chief.
Commentator has tossed back to back -5\'s [whether he wants another eighth is debatable]. Two Zito shhpeedballs trucking together on the front end together in the BC??? Neither has shown an inclination to rate. And good ol\' St. Liam has run two -6\'s and lost both heats!!!
Historically, 3yo\'s running big neg numbers rarely, if ever, return to them. Many suffer injuries [look at the group that went in the Derby] even Afleet Alex is laid up [luckily they caught the hairline fracture before he broke down].
Older horses often can\'t handle the extra stress either. Mineshaft, Ghostzapper and Roses in May quickly come to mind. They can only put up the huge numbers a few times and that\'s it. The only real exception has been Perfect Drift who keeps plugging along, while not racing as fast.