I\'m not sure. I read his Derby as saying another quarter mile was well within him. No one can look at that race and say: \"I don\'t think he\'ll get another quarter.\" However I saw a chink in War Emblem\'s armor during the Preakness. When that goofey horse tried to sprint off with the race, I really thought War Emblem should have rated another length or two off and made his move after sticking close, allowing the front runner to burn some energy and saving some ground. He couldn\'t do it. He had to run up there with him and burn wide and in the end Magic Weisner might win that thing if it goes another half mark. So I guess the question is if some horse bent on the lead runs six panels in 1:11:1 can War Emblem rate off five lengths and still have the late energy he showed in the Derby? I\'m not sure yet.
But win or lose the Triple Crown, I\'m absolutely astounded by the War Emblem story. War Emblem had come to life at the time he was sold. His allowance win was breathtaking and the way he dominated Repent in the Illinois Derby was amazing. That third place horse (Fonz\'s) may not be Triple Crown material but he was good enough to beat Officer when Siphonic was running well. Fonz\'s was 7 lengths clear of the fourth place horse. As soon as I saw the results of the Illinois Derby I began salivating. But in all this what I can\'t understand is Russell Reineman (sic?) selling this animal for 800K. He\'d just won 300K for crying out loud. It sounds like the worlds greatest fire sale gone horribly wrong. Someone help me but isn\'t he the former owner of Banshee Breeze? They gotta know horses. Russell\'s trainer (Frank Springer) said subsequently there was no way he\'d run War Emblem in the Derby if he had continued to train him. Well I understand that War Emblem has an ankle. Specifically reported as a \"bone chip\". Skip Away had something similar is my understanding. Anyway, Baffert is using some quote \"very expensive\" medication to treat it. I don\'t mean to imply anything by that, those are merely Baffert\'s words. But the bottom line...Is War Emblem a Skip Away type horse or is he a horse with some real problems? All I know is Bob Baffert saw talent in this horse, bought him for a relative song after an amazingly impressive race and Russell Reineman is behaving like a kid that traded a Sammy Sosa baseball card for a Babe Ruth original. Win or lose, its a great story.
let us know after the race, when you\'ve made up your mind.
(by the way, the answer is, \'no\'.)
as for the sale, I believe russell\'s business was bleeding badly, and he needed the cash.
there were other lookers, but no takers, so I guess they were as \'dumb\' as russell.
the fact is, he could have sold the horse a lot quicker, and for a lot more w/o the bone chips --- but that\'s horse racing.
springer said that every day he checked on him in the barn might have been the day when they had to stop on him.
it\'s real easy to look back in retrospect and second guess every time some sale wins the derby, but how many horses get sold at a big price and don\'t do jack?
those aren\'t the ones they write about.
\"it\'s real easy to look back in retrospect and second guess every time some sale wins the derby, but how many horses get sold at a big price and don\'t do jack?\"
Oh, you must be referring to Buckle Down Ben and the five million Saudi purchase that was trained in the Desert and caved the last quarter mile. The only other \"late\" purchase I can recall winning the Derby was Lil E. Tee, a horse I saw win his first two races and talked to friends about organizing a partnership to acquire. Oh well, Lil E Tee still treated me very well on Derby Day. When I heard W.E. was sold I thought...well anywhere from 4 - 8 million.
\"springer said that every day he checked on him in the barn might have been the day when they had to stop on him\"
Maybe that Illinois Derby mile mark in 1:37:3 with a 24:3 fourth quarter was a sign for Frank. Or maybe that \"ridden out\" last eighth in 12:1 told him the stopping time was soon. I knew about these things when I bet the Derby. If W.E. has problems one thing is certain now and was certain then, he\'s running through them. How bad is it? I don\'t really know, but I don\'t think Frank did either. Maybe he was too busy with his other Triple Crown nominees. W.E. could go lame any day I suppose, but I think Baffert knows.
\"let us know after the race, when you\'ve made up your mind.\"
I\'m on a quest this year freaky. The \"Triple-Tri-Crown.\" I can honestly say I\'ve never won it before. But like War Emblem after two legs I\'ve got a shot to do it. I really feel like I got the three year olds by the tail this year. That I know which is best and which is second best and which is third best and which is fourth best. I think I know which will get the 12 marks and which will weaken. I think that only quirk surfaces I don\'t pick up on, form reversals and injuries can deny me. I think I\'ll win the Triple Crown with or without War Emblem. Usually, I don\'t share. Though if I made an exception it wouldn\'t be for Raggies.
But, I\'ll consider finding a way to let you know with certainty that I did win it...lol.
\"as for the sale, I believe russell\'s business was bleeding badly, and he needed the cash.
there were other lookers, but no takers, so I guess they were as \'dumb\' as russell.
the fact is, he could have sold the horse a lot quicker, and for a lot more w/o the bone chips --- but that\'s horse racing.\"
Yeah its how \"Skippy\" cost only 20K. Sonny didn\'t know a horse either. Russell is in the Steel Business. I\'m sure it has its down side. I\'ll never live to be 85, but if I did I\'d shut my mouth, not cause any distractions and hope to get my 10% 500K share of the bonus money. I\'m not saying Russell\'s antics can really interfere with Baffert and Espinoza. But there is zen in this thing and you don\'t mess with the horseracing gods. Russell ought to be ecstatic. His trainer said he wasn\'t going to the dance. With Baffert leading potentially he could pick up an additional 600K.
Relax, Relax....he is a stone lock! On
Saturday, Victor Espinoza becomes a star!
He is the perfect rider for this horse; one
look at his Derby & Preakness rides tell
you all you need to know. He won\'t let
Chavez sucker him into a pace war, and
the only other horse running at the end
will be \'Sunday. \'Citizen will run well
again, if he doesn\'t crack from the insane
Lukas regimen.
Again ,he didn\'t seem to be hampered by bone chips in either the Derby or Preakness or in the workout I seen part of yesterday on T.V.he didn;t want to pull up .I think he may be the very real deal,just one of these freaky animals that will run until the wheels fall off i.e. Go For Wand .This horse is all about running .
\"But, I\'ll consider finding a way to let you know with certainty that I did win it...\"
I\'m sure you will....
there seems to be a lot of that kind of thing around here.
picks are posted friday or early sat. morning, to be fair to those who can\'t do it later.
if you wait until the late scratches are in, you\'re taking advantage.
and if you think I\'m waiting to bet on your picks, you\'re out of your mind .
\"But there is zen in this thing and you don\'t mess with the horseracing gods. \"
oh yeah, nevermind...
Supe, why don\'t you just post your picks whenever you want and don\'t worry about what everybody else is doing. These posts have dates and times, and nobody needs you to referee. HP
don\'t be so goddamn sensitive.
Then don\'t be so goddamn stupid. You see the dates and times on these posts, right? Patent and I ironed this out a week ago. Post your picks and shut up already, unless you have more keen insights on Russell Reinemann. HP
I have already yielded to you and DP as the rules committee(?), but I think we should all agree that if you don\'t use it, you lose it --- leftover $ is not added to final score.
this is a handicapping contest --- not a saving for your retirement, or ducking wife\'s frying pan contest.
ps re: russell
I have no idea what your point is, I just don\'t happen to like smartass monday morning quarterbacks.
before the race (or sale) it\'s always, \'I haven\'t made up my mind yet\', but afterwards, you are always regaled w/their great wisdom.
the guy needed cash, and others wouldn\'t pony it up --- case closed.
as evidenced by his price in the derby, beating a cripple in the spt. derby wasn\'t such lofty credentials.
Supe:
If a horse gets scratched it seems to me that the $ just goes back in the pool. But I won\'t whine if the rule goes the way you suggest.
dp
David, if you bet the whole thousand it won\'t be an issue (or \'all in\' as they say in poker). That\'s what I plan to do. HP
Sorry. Come to think of it, with the scratches, you\'re right, we\'ll have to agree on that.
I would go with \'scratches go back in the pool\'. As for unused cash, bet the whole thousand and it\'s a moot point. I\'m not going to worry about a stray buck or two if that\'s how the math goes on your plays. Those few dollars can stay in the pool (so it adds up to a thousand starting out).
I really doubt I can go back and change anything after the scratches and judging by your posted travel agenda it may be tough for you too. Post away if you have any alternatives. HP
HP,
I am going to bet it all on the MTOs for the turf races. So, I think that scratched horse money goes back in the pool. Fair enough?
O.K., seriously, I will definitely be all in -- with no MTO bets. Let\'s say scratched horse $ goes back into the pool. From a straigh up fairness standpoint I think that makes the most sense.
Why don\'t you use alternate picks
WE breaks from post 10 in \'The Test of Champions \'Artax Too draws the rail Can anyone say hung out on the clubhouse turn.
alts would be ok if we were just picking winners, or just doing a race, but w/the whole card and the gimmicks, it would get a little out of hand.
that\'s really kind of a tough one, but what can you do?
so, does that scratched money figure in your final total, or is it left out?