So, the Whitney went a long way to confirming the figure St. Liam ran in last year\'s Woodward, and Commentator\'s sprint win. Like, exact pair-ups. SFTF ran a 1/4 point new top.
Not that I\'m going to feel sorry for Dutrow, but St. Liam has now run two figures better than anyone not named Ghostzapper, and lost with both.
TGJB,
Did the race fit well with the sprints for the day?
And...so what? Thorograph has (rightly) been one of the biggest critic\'s of the \"Move-up\" trainers in the last decade, and of Dutrow in particular. Dutrow himself this spring told one of the Industry Trade Magazines that Sis City was as good as she was in Florida this winter because her vet was none other than Steve Allday, claiming that Allday was a great vet for resolving \"hind end\" problems like she had. Uh-huh.
So why marvel at Saint Liam\'s figures at all? If Saint Liam is being enhanced by a vet in shady ways, his figures are meaningless as a tool to assess ability.
By the way, for all the flack I took on this board from people about my claim that the Lousiana Derby was an over-rated bogus race, I\'ll smugly point out that the first three home out of that race ran this weekend at Saratoga. None of them ran in the money, and for all I know they might all still be trying to finish their races even as I write this.
Louisiana Derby 2005 = Terrible Race with Bad Horses that got Bogus Figures, and they prove it even now, five months later, as they continue to run up the track every time they do run.
CH-- the short answer is that in your terms, the answer is yes-- I did the 1/2 turn races so that I\'m adding more to the routes than usual. It fit dead on with the other route, as well. The number is definitely right.
I dont believe these figures, this means that horses like Cigar and Holy Bull would be completely outclassed by the likes of Commentator and Saint Liam, both of who were sucking wind going just slightly faster then Left Bank did when he got a 115 Beyer a few years back on what seemed like comparable surfaces.
Millenium-- would you like to be called intellectually dishonest, or something worse?
High Limit ran on grass.
Vicarage was coming off a stake winning effort much BETTER than his FG figure, and was a clear bet against. I took a big position against the horse at the discussion group, and boxed four in the race throwing him out. I ran 1-2-3-5,so I hit the tri, and only missed the super because of...
Storm Surge, who\'s La Derby figure was WORSE than his previous figures (he ran an OFF race that day, get it?), and has held up dead-on with his subsequent figures (look at the sheet). I\'ll be doing the Amsterdam today, but the reason I didn\'t use him is that he would have had to IMPROVE to beat me-- which it looks like he did. To spell it out for you, that would mean he ran a BETTER figure than I gave him at FG.
Listen, if you\'re going to do this, you should do what you did last time, and wait until I\'m out of town. Next time will be Alabama weekend.
Or you could go look at the sheets I posted last time you pulled this, and maybe learn something.
Saddle-- oh no, not again...
Please read \"Are Racehorses getting faster\" in the archive section of this site.
The board is regressing quickly here. Back to the La Derby AGAIN and \"Are racehorses getting faster\".
Millennium3,
Two things.
1. It does matter what figure that Saint Liam gets. 95% of the people on this board probably agree that Dutrow cheats. But we still need to know that with cheating, his horse can run a negative 6, because until they clean up the game, this unfortunately has to be part of the handicapping equation.
2. Come on, let the La Derby drop. There was an opportunity in the 6 weeks after that race to treat it as a \"negative key race\" and if you scored out, based on that, congratulations. Vicarage was an obvious bet against. I have to tell you, jerry was not the only one at Saratoga that hit that race. Basically everybody at the discussion group (except me), hit the race, tossing Vicarage. (I was stupid enough to structure my bets such that Middle Earth had to be in the number........)
Anybody got any views on Saratoga today? Looks like a lousy card.
In the 3rd race, I like elusive toga, despite the presence of Santos. He is maybe a point slower than the pletcher stretchout, but should be saving ground on the lead. Ferraro is not a name trainer, but is 52% to pair up or run a new top, the first time he runs a horse. 6-1 is a good price, in my mind.
In the 7th, I like Gryffindor. He is freshened up for Voss, and his two best races were both at the Spa. His two starts earlier this year were disappointing, but I think he can bet back to his top now, which would make him tough. Need a trip from the 8 slot, but I like him at 6-1 or better. Have to use Dave and Confidence Man behind him, trying to avoid MiketheMoonDog, who is a little slow on T-Graph.
Jerry:
As long as the gloves are coming off..
The three horses from the LA Derby have managed to find but 1 winner\'s circle in 5 months among them, depsite at least 10 subsequent starts. You wanna keep telling me how great these mules are because your figures say so, then let\'s watch whom we call intellectually dishonest. Last I remember, they payoff at the windows and hand out purse money for what these horses do on the track, not what they do on your sheets.
And speaking of intellectually dishonest, your own shining example of that (among many others) was your Breeders Cup Seminar for 2004. Go back and count the number of times in that seminar you cautioned listeners to weigh in the shipping to Texas and the southern heat as concerns to factor into their wagering, based on your absurd claim that BC horses at Santa Anita the year before suffered from both and ran poorly. Question: was your mug buried so far into your precious sheets that your ignored the fact the the European horses, who travel farther and from cooler climates than anyone else, had their single best showing at a Breeders Cup in 2003 at Santa Anita? So much for heat and travel affecting performance.
None of that pap you spewed would be so sinister but for one thing: YOU CHARGE PEOPLE MONEY FOR THIS DRIVEL! It\'s bad enough if you dispense such nonsense for free, blatantly ignoring the metaphysical evidence right in front of your face. But when you offered that nonsense up in the 2004 Seminar, when anyone watching the Santa Anita Breeders Cup saw what happened with their own eyes, well that\'s more than intellectually dishonest. It\'s borderline larceny. You lose any claim you have to \"expertise\", and it makes it fair game to challenge your analysis on anything else. Especially to those of us that paid.
And I\'ll say this when you\'re in town, out of town, to your face or anywhere else. I should have expected this from someone who didn\'t know anything about photo finish processing until 2005 (tell me again who it is that needs to \"learn something\"). And by the way, I worked right next to one of your \"trackmen\" everyday for years while he compiled your \"data\". I\'ll say this, I sure hope you have them now gathering more info, in a much more sophisticated way, than what this guy was sending in to you. If not, it\'s unconscionable for you to charge money for anything.
I\'m interested in knowing more about the metaphysical evidence.
I have enough confidence in the audience to leave your post up, and let the rest go. Anyone who wants to listen to the past BC and Derby seminars can do so on this site, for free.
TGJB,
I have read it, but the does not mean I believe it in every case, in every high class race, every division, and I just have a hard time thinking that both horses ran their career best races in that race last week. I hope there is somehting usable against them as they will be 1/5 off those figures.
What a day...Jimbo has become \"Peacemaker.\" WOW !!!!!!!
Thanks.
I haven\'t even attempted to look at the day yet, but your figure makes perfect sense to me. The only reason I brought it up was the Watchmaker DRF article that suggested that Commentator \"bottomed out\" the field. I believe he was suggesting that the \"internal fractions\" set by Commentator were so fast that it caused the rest of the field to run sub-par (except St Liam who is obviously of similar ability).
Cigar and Holy Bull are now 10+ years in the past. I do think horses are running faster now and attribute much of this on the highest levels to modern science both legal and illegal. Use of performance enhancing drugs (many undetectable) has exploded in the last decade. Harmon killebrew hit 30+ HR ten times in his career. Rafael Palmeiro did the same. Obviously drugs are not the only advantage thta modern day athletes(human and equine) have but it certainly plays a role beyond what anyone wants to admit. JB offers a number of rational reasons why horses are getting faster. I think there are many other reasons which occur \"outside the numbers.\"
jimbo,
\"Basically everybody at the discussion group (except me), hit the race, tossing Vicarage. (I was stupid enough to structure my bets such that Middle Earth had to be in the number........) \"
I didn\'t look at the race because I was busy, but if I had I would have had my lungs on Middle Earth in that race at 6-1 if it weren\'t for the fact that Zito was the trainer. I think I would have keyed against the favorite and not Vicarage at those prices. I saved a few bucks. Expect Middle Earth to run a giant race as soon as it looks like he has no shot. I won\'t have him that day, but he\'s likely to beat me out of something. :)
Jimbo:
Correct. I believe the strongest stance that JB and Julian had on Sunday morning was a vote against Vicarage in the Amsterdam. Julian went a step further,if you recall: One of his strongest plays on the day was Social Probation, a 24/1 Canadian bomb who almost got by Santana Strings at the wire. Could have been an uncomfortable trip home for the TG gang...?
Julian\'s other strong play was Maria\'s Dance in Sunday\'s 8th, 19.5/1 for an ice cold Hennig/ Fragoso combo. MD finished 7th by about 5 lengths, with the following comment: \"raced close up inside, was steadied repeatedly along the inside, was shut off along the inside in the stretch and altered course\". Julian has a refreshing disdain for short priced runners.
Don\'t understand the continued dialogue over the Louisiana Derby. Does it have to do with High Limit\'s regression? I was surprised to see him in the Nat Museum of Racing Stakes, tossed him immediately (as I have since the Bluegrass) and wondered why they don\'t cut him back to a one turn race, to try to start to rebuild his confidence. There are plenty of one turn stakes for 3YOs that Los in the Fog won\'t be running in.
Carolina BBQ is top notch, kind of reminded me when Boog Powell had one of his BBQ pits set up at Monmouth Park a few years ago
Jimbo, meant to ask you, how did you feel when you saw that J. Jerkens rode Santos back on Reel Legend?
Richiebee,
I didn\'t realize you were at the seminar on Sunday.
I was absolutely shocked that Jerkens used Santos back. I guess most of the world saw the ride he gave him last time, and over-reacted, making him 2-1. With Santos from the outside, I had to toss him. Unfortunately, I didn\'t come up with the winner.
Jerry was saying that one of the NY trainers (I believe Hushion), commented that he felt that Jimmy Jerkens was the top trainer in NY right now. I guess that could be so, because his horses usually run their races, but jeez, you would think if he was the BEST in NY, he would use Santos less. I will take Chantal Sutherland over Santos, espeically on speed horses on the grass. The Santos chokehold on horses is lethal. He should consider a career in that ultimate fighting stuff, when his mounts start to dry up........
Speaking of jockeys, did anybody else think Robbie Albarado put up an especially putrid effort on Silver Strings on Sunday? Or am I just trying to excuse bad handicapping?
I loved Silver Strings in there, and the Hennig horse as well. Praise Jesus I was too hungover to follow through on my intention to get up for the seminar on Sunday, if I heard the TG rep talking up the Hennig horse I may have taken even more of a beating on the race, and the beating (for my world) was pretty severe as it was.
Anyway, there was no speed in there, Albarado\'s got the rail on a horse who has run decent tactical speed, granted she was op a bit in her last two, but that\'s why I thought they ditched Jara for a \"big time\" rider. So they walk out of there in like 49, over a rock-hard turf, no less, and this guy has the horse way back there in seventh. Maybe he wouldn\'t have won anyway, but give the horse a chance. This guy seems to have signed some sort of non-agression pact with himself, he seems to have all kinds of trouble riding horses with tactical speed on the turf, either not using it, moving too early, whatever.
And, despite knowing this, like an idiot I bet the horse anyway.
To top it off the very next race I screw the pooch by keying the Dutrow horse over and under Santana Springs and the Nafzger piece in exactas, key Dutrow over them in triples, with a win bet on Nafzger, yet, somehow it never occurs to me to box the two of them in the exacta. The teller even tried to help by punching in two less dollars than I wanted on the SS/Nafzger horse over Dutrow, too; it was like the gods of racing were begging me to remember to spend the last four bucks boxing SS and the Nafzger horse. Unfortunately, the signal didn\'t get through, and I threw the extra four dollars on those two over Dutrow.
One last brief comment before I go crawl back under my rock ..my wife\'s home in the UK for two weeks, with the kids...she calls Monday morning, waking me out of a hungover sleep, and, after few minutes of pleasant conversation, the inevitable...
\"...so, how\'d you do at the track this weekend, dear?\"...
Richiebee,
\"Don\'t understand the continued dialogue over the Louisiana Derby. Does it have to do with High Limit\'s regression?\"
If I owned High Limit and wanted to continue running him against high quality horses, at this point, I would try sprinting him.
He was successful routing twice. However, both times he had easy leads in a slow pace (and that FG track was highly suspect). Every other time he has looked dreadful in the stretch regardless of the what the speed figure said. He may just be a 6F-8F horse that can run further when he gets it all his own way. I suggested that was a possibility before the LA Derby and considered it a risk that was being weighed properly. However, he got it all his own way on that surface that day. So we didn\'t get to find anything out.
If he fails sprinting, then it will be obvious he\'s not moving forward and will need a drop in class.
STB,
Albarado\'s ROI is a paltry $1.28. In his last 152 Sar races, it\'s even lower ($0.94). He consistently runs wide (2.3 ave path), and when he does save ground, he often seems to find trouble. Albarado will win his share of races, as he continues to pick up decent mounts from Ky based trainers, but I don\'t think he offers much value at the windows. Most of the top jocks are out of town this w/e, might give Robby a chance to improve on his current 2 for 35 record.
M3,
Again I keep reading that you don\'t believe in the figure\'s,figuremaking,etc. I don\'t know who you are, but based on your post you must have worked for equibase or DRF in some fashion (i\'m excluding the competitors product for now). This whole business as far as I can tell is not an exact science (not due to a lack of trying on the part of the TG team). They have never said it was. I don\'t buy the product with the expectation of 100% perfection. We all know the DRF has mistakes, Equibase has mistakes, Beyer makes mistakes and so does RAG.
It is my position that it is the most accurate product on the market. Many times I\'vr gone back over the card with my sheets and only curse myself as to why I didn\'t see the pattern. The are not afraid to take a stand. They are willing to revisit races and figures unlike others in the business. The are ever willing to talk to you when you have a legit question or issue with the data.
So who the hell are you anyway? You not telling anyone of us something we all don\'t already know. The horses who ran in the LA Derby are not Grade I stock. It was a grade II race anyway of young 3 yo\'s with one lone speed. Who cares if none come back to win. The horse ran a 1 that day without any up front pressure. So fugeddabout it already, use the info to your advantage.Why not bring some real examples to support your position? What was wrong with 2004 seminar comment? It\'s worth noting to look at how the horses handled the heat? Did any of them wash out? It\'s happened in prior BC in Florida. None of the East Coast horses that year(03) held up to the CA heat in but the Euro\'s did. You used the Euro\'s to support your case. How does any of that prove your point? Contructive criticism is good for the product,(i think) but what your doing just takes up space.
For what it\'s worth High Limit beat Sun King in the Blue Grass and Sun King came back to run a game race in the Haskell. Are you sure the FIGs don\'t fit?
And for every negative point you\'ve made so far I\'ve read hundreds of favorable posts to the contrary
Hiding behind you screen name and taking shots at the TG team make you a big man in your own mind. It\'s clear to me you\'ve got an axe to grind, so come clean with the rest of us!!
NC Tony