Interesting ROTW this week. I wish there were more horses in the race (I hate short fields).
I agree with the Thorograph Analysis on St. Liam. Unless something goes wrong, he looks very solid. The 7-5 is not so much fun (and not worth a win bet), but there are some possible solid combinations underneath him.
In general, I do not like the Zito entry. I actually think SS is due to run a better effort on this day than Commentator is, but Commentator looks to have this race set up beautifully for him pace and trip wise. What scares me is that (a) his one awful race was his only race around two turns (even the TGI for Distorted Humor shows his get slowing down the longer they go) and (b) his last was such a huge figure a big bounce is inevitable. Look at St. Liam -- he had the same sort of top as Commentator before the big jump up and he reacted sharply to his first negative 6 even off a big layoff and judicious handling. On the other hand, I seem to recall Left Bank coming into this race off a similar pattern and not having too much trouble (although he did end up dying pre-maturely). My recollection could be off on this as well. In any event, the 9-5 on the Zito entry is entirely unappetizing. If there wasn\'t the risk that Commentator gets a nice easy lead on the rail, I would happily bet against the entry.
I also agree with the Thorograph Analysis that the Pletcher-Johnny V and Pletcher-Bailey horses may well get overbet and present some nice/interesting opportunities underneath.
I find both Wiggins and Eurosilver appealing. Wiggins I think has a great pattern and I would forecast a new top in this race -- especially when the trainer change has a chance to really kick in. I sure hope Guidry can make the weight -- I hate that guy and have had incredibly aggravating experiences seeing him take horses unnecessarily wide -- if that is compounded with toting unnecessary extra pounds, I will really be on the war path if he misses by a narrow margin. I am worried that in Guidry\'s first race on this horse he pressed 4 wide (coming out of the 4 hole in a seven horse race). Coming out of the three hole and with some tactical speed, I hope this horse can save ground today and that Guidry does not let me down.
Eurosilver also has a great looking pattern to me. Recent breakthrough mid- 4yo year and nice rest coming after it. When he has hit other levels, he has tended to stay with them (this is a horse who only has one bounce his entire career). Hope Albarado makes weight and this horse does not go 6 wide like he did in his last G1 effort against St. Liam. (I promise I am not swayed by the Russian Tango by Nijinsky II on the bottom side of the pedigree).
I would bet St. Liam over Wiggins and Eurosilver and then Wiggins and Eurosilver to win. If there were more horses in the race, I would find trifectas and Superfectas VERY appetizing, but the 25% trifecta take when there are only 220 possible trifecta combinations is way too steep (most Derbies have more exacta combinations than that many trifecta combinations). In my experience, the steep take is only worth going against if there are enough combinations out there to help shoulder the burden.
I also think that horses like Swingforthefences (coming off a dead rail) and the improving Eurosilver might be better values in the exacta than either Pletcher horse given the way TP is being bet these days - though I think either Pletcher horse could easily get 2nd money here.
Personally, I think St. Liam is MUCH more likely to run his best race (or close) than Commentator is to duplicate his last speed figure. Call it what you will, but even if Commentator is equally effective at 9F as he was at 7F (no lock), he had very easy circumstances in his last. It was a 4 horse field of very weak ALW horses. He sprinted clear of them and set an unpressured pace every step of the way. This time, assuming the real St. Liam shows up, he will have a quality Grade 1 horse breathing down his neck at some point. We\'ll see if he can repulse a bid like that and run just as fast. We\'ll see if he can even duplicate his most recent effort.
I doubt St Liam will be long enough odds to bet to win and I don\'t think Commentator is weak enough to toss out of the exacta with confidence (especially because Sir S could save the place spot). Commentator doesn\'t face a bad pace scenario here. He will probably be loose again. He just won\'t have it as easy as he had it last time if St Liam is sharp enough to hook him on the seond turn. So he could last for second.
I\'m going to hope that Commentator takes enough money to make St Liam bettable to win.
Agree that Swingforthefences will be value -- I just see him as not as strong value as Eurosilver and Wiggins.
SoCalMan2,
I\'m with you, but I like Eurosilver best and I would take him to win for sure @ 10-1 or better. If the exacta was fair I would use him a little under Saint Liam. Wiggins and Pollard\'s Vision may fill out the tri/super...
Good luck.
HP
Socal,
I also rate Eurosilver (and several other horses) solidly over Swingforthefences, but we\'ll have to see what the prices look like. My thinking is that it\'s possible SFTF will be totally overlooked in the betting because of his subpar looking race on a dead rail.
I\'m not a big fan of Wiggins. He looks a little cheap to me. The price would have to be huge. If he goes with Commentator early it could be suicide (assuming Comm. runs reasonably well). If he sits just off and makes an early bid he\'s trying to beat St. Liam at his own game. I can\'t see it unless he improves much further for Romans.
Class,
What is \"bettable\" on Saint Liam to win?
If you are expecting better than even money, don\'t waste your time. If you think he is a \"lock\", maybe even money is bettable, but most people don\'t consider that a bettable price.
Commentator is not going to be favored over Saint Liam at 1 1/8 and the other alternatives, while interesting to longshot bettors, are not appealing enough to draw enough money to have Saint Liam drift up. (IMO)
Jimbo:
Haven\'t looked yet, what about In The Gold in the Test? I seem to recall that you, like I, was counting win and gimmick money at the 1/8th pole in her last race (Acorn?)
Yes richiebee, thanks for reminding, I had ALMOST blocked it from memory.......
Leave Me Alone ran a real nice figure last time, but as such a big top, while bearing out in the stretch, I can\'t use her.
Pomme Frits is too slow.
Acey Deucyis fast enough, but also coming off a bit top, and has to overcome Diane nelson again. Tough call, because she will be a reasonable price.
Aspen Tree is too slow.
Sense of Style has not been right this year. I love the DRF having an article about how she is coming into form. I disagree, even though T-Graph has her pairing her 2 year old top last time. I hope she gets bet, as I don\'t like her.
Maddalena had no excuse last time and still hasn\'t back near her big top earlier this year. Toss her.
Lady Pegasus is too slow and Flying Glitter is interesting in the exotics but not on top.
Hide and Chic and In the Gold would each be formidable here, as an entry, they are tough to go past. In the Gold ran back to her top last time, improving on her route form, as you and I both expected, but came up a little short.
Probably unbettable in the win pool, even if the SOS/Maddalena entry draws a lot of action. Will probably singe in the multi-race pools, unless they somehow go off the 2nd choice, in which case I take a shot at a win bet.
jimbo,
I\'m not really sure exactly what price I\'m going to need, but it would probably be in the 8-5 range - which I don\'t expect either (I\'m allowed to hope though). I\'ll probably consider fishing in the exactas a little leaving Commentator off if he\'s a heavy 2nd choice. Maybe one cold exacta with Eurosilver????
Add another TG user to the Eurosilver bandwagon. The pace factor Pim Special is a toss out (check the Suburban champ) but still paired up the 1 from his Skippy. A pair up with his (hidden?) effort in the Foster makes him live here. Despite the popularity on this board I\'m confident he\'ll be at least 10-1 & wouldn\'t be surprised to see 15-1. Zito/Stevens & Dutrow/Prado will get pounded and both TPs will get hit, esp with the big jocks aboard, and Robbie still flies under the radar (Mine who?). My only concern about the price is if the exacta from the Foster is pounded, esp considering Perfect Drift came back to win impressively (at least visually); it seems prudent to save with St. Liam, even if that one is overbet in the win pool.
Talking about Perfect Drift, I\'m hoping this Whitney will help me get over last years, which I havent yet. Gosh darn, maybe the self-criticizing Day really didn\'t have the will to win that one deep stretch.
It certainly was an after thought but EUROSILVER might not yet be through running a top effort and easily could have another point or so top left in him right now during his current cycle , in my view the pattern is dull but that dosen\'t preclude the horse from using more than one race to express a top effort . The break in weights is good but I\'m really hoping that somehow this horse can save ground so a little racing luck will have to be there in the mix . The entry will sure be tough but I\'m comfortable playing those two to bounce as they have both previously demonstrated to my satisfaction that after running a top , they will either back up alot or go backwards for several races . I\'m not in love with this race but it seemed like a reasonble pic for a contest I\'m in . Come time to go to the windows , I plan to use an exacta w/ the entry as a saver to back up the win bet .
This is not an easy ROTW. I\'m going to take a shot against Saint Liam. He can win but his price will be short and What fun would that be?
I\'m going to go with Limestone. As long as he doesn\'t feel the effects of flying all over the United States he could bounce back at a reasonable price.
I agree with a few of the shots you guys are taking. Wiggins is an interesting bomb. Eurosilver can improve and is working up a storm.
Here are the horses I\'m interested in at Saratoga tommarow.
Race 3- Quadrant is a half to Offlee Wild and should be happy about the stretch out to 9 furlongs. Noble Causeway either wins by five or runs last in my opinion. Since I think he will be a short price, I\'ll play against.
Race 5- Brillant Son is interesting but I like Grand Survival. I hope Asmussen\'s horse takes money to insure a decent price on this horse with a good win early pedigree and Biancone. EDIT: Let me add this about this horse his Dam Marsh Cat is a half sister to Run Man Run who won the Malibu at 7 Furlongs at SA.
Race 7- Sir Greeley has to improve off of that race opening day. I hate the nine hole on the inner turf. Maybe because of that he will be an overlay.
Race 8- Flying Glitter I believe can run well as an overlay. She steps up in class. I believe the Zito entry will be overbet. Leave Me Alone can win as well but I\'m looking for the price.
Good Luck...
xichibanx
it\'s a ridiculous tri with no payout ...St.Liam,EuroS, an dLimehouse - box and hope one passes Liam...no other way to look at it.
If I\'m betting, I go to the Sir Cat stakes....and get all over Sir Geeley.
Looking at Saturdays late pick 4 at Spa...
Classic Campaign is impeccably bred for 1 mile on the grass, being by Rahy out of a Red Ransom mare. Two of the contenders in this race, United and Smooth Bid, will carry 123 pounds on the basis of their inconsequential main course stakes wins. I will watch with curiosity Sir Greeley, who is showing less and less early lick in recent starts, usually not a good sign.
If Luzzi or Cornelio V were riding Classic Campaign, he might be 4/1 or 5/1. With Bailey, look for 5/2 or 2/1 or 9/5
In the Test, agreed Jimbo, Sense of Style may have shown us all she has as a 2YO. Acey Deucey\'s TG Pattern tells us there is a 40% likelihood of full regression off of her last race. Leave Me Alone, Maddalena and Flying Glitter look to occupy themselves on the lead, setting up In the Gold, who looks every bit as good to me as she did in the Acorn. Arguably fastest and classiest in here, Stevens on for Bejarano, the bad news is 7/5, not 7/2 like she was in Acorn.
Whitney: Commentator just ran a half in 45.4. He\'s two lengths in front of St. Liam, who has been kind of anxious (though not rank) to go up to the pacesetter. Eurosilver, Limehouse and Pollard\'s Vision need to be perfectly placed at this point if they are to have any chance of getting Liam, no more than 8 lengths or so behind Commentator.
At this point IMO there are two possibilities. (1) Liam kicks by Commentator, kicks away from all the rest, pays $4.10, and the Liam/ Roses in May hype machine kicks in or (2) When Liam collars Commentator, Commentator stiffens to the challenge (alot of dry cleaning analogies there). Tom Durkin bellows \"They went three quarters in one oh nine and one!\". Scenario 2 gives Eurosilver or one of the Pletchers a chance to go by, if they have been perfectly placed and are cranked for the race.
My feeling is that there is a 75-85% chance that Scenario 1 materializes. In the instance of Scenario 2, there is still a 60% or so chance that a leg weary Liam holds off the three outsiders and emerges victorious.
Race 10, Wholehearted\'s TG# from his last race in 04 makes him open lengths better than these. He ran second to Commentator when Commentator broke his maiden. Price could be ok off \"meaningful\" 05 debut with low profile Jara returning to ride. All Flying Z horses seem to be cranked up for the meet, whether trained by Biancone or Serpe or Martin family. The others could be Classic Explorer (good Sara T/J combo) or Hottothetouch (ran well at Spa as a 2YO).
The bet: $25 pick 4 Classic Campaign/ In The Gold/ Liam/ Wholehearted.
$ 7 pick 4 CC/ ITG/Euro,Limestone,Pollard/Wholehearted.
Will be arriving at Spa in about 24 hours. Where is the sign in for the TG golf outing? (just joking)
CH
I hope others share your thinking on Wiggins. It is that type of thinking that causes a horse to be \"totally overlooked\" as you say.
Winning over half a million dollars and finishing in the money 20 out of 23 tries is not bad for a horse that is a \"little cheap.\" Running 1.5 or faster in 9 out of those 23 races (22 of them for Anthony Granitz) is also not too shabby. He looks like a pretty solid animal to me! I recognize that his breeding is obscure and a lot of that money may have been won in restricted Ill-bred races, but this is a horse that has been great for his owners. If you are saying that his form doesn\'t look so good and he hasn\'t done well in graded races, this is the exact type of situation where performance figures give a horseplayer an edge over players who rely on the racing form and class handicapping. Your nice and classy horse which you prefer for the overlooked value, Swingforthefences, has never run as fast as Wiggins (and that is true even if you account for their age difference -- just compare their 3 yo and 4 yo campaigns). I do happen to agree that Swingforthefences has a nice pattern and should also run a top today, but I suspect that Wiggins will run a better figure and represent a better value.
The reason I like Wiggins is his pattern. This is a horse who was trained by an obscure trainer and took every winter off. To me, it looks like the guy liked to race this horse into shape. In every single one of his campaigns off the rest, it took him several races to get down to good numbers. This is his fourth race of this campaign. In each of his campaigns, his fourth race was a significant new top. In this campaign, his last figure (which for some strange reason most people are viewing as a potential knock out number) merely paired up his 4 y.o. old top (a level he hit twice last year and which was not an outrageous jump up figure). Looking at the way his campaigns have gone the last two years, he does not seem like the type who should bounce just because he got back to where he was. I feel very confident this horse will run a top in this race. I know Robespierre has indicated that the Dale Romans magic isn\'t as good in NY as in Kentucky, but Roses in May did pretty well in this race last year if I remember correctly. Also, Romans first race with this horse at Churchill did not get any better effort out of this horse than Anthony Granitz was able to get. You would think that Romans would show some improvement for the trainer change.
The problem is what will a \'-1.5\' get him? While I like the low weight, I hate the jockey. As you point out, he may try to go with Commentator. However, I only see two outcomes from that -- (1) He keeps up with him and forces Commentator to go wide on the first turn and also causes both he and Commentator to shoot their wad early. Since I will also be betting Eurosilver, this scenario is not too awful for me (but it is one possible reason Wiggins may not fire his top, and (2) Commentator shoots clear and Wiggins cannot keep up but is clear of the others in second on the rail. This scenario is fine with me. He will save ground on the first turn. St. Liam will need to go around him AND Commentator wasting some of his likely superior effort (which will also be partly wasted by the extra weight). Of course, there is always the possibility that Guidry will figure out other novel ways to waste a good effort (not including by not making wieght), but c\'est las vie.
Anyway, I agree with all including yourself that this will be a tough race to bet. The only angle I like is goign against the Pletcher horses (and Bailey and Velasquez), but that can only produce so much value in a seven horse race where the first and second choices are strong contenders.
Can\'t seem to get by the logical figure horses in this race. Liam and Commentator appear to have a distinct edge over the rest. Much faster when they run their best. I give the edge to Commentator with the break in weight but Liam will be tough to deny. Looks like a short price exacta box.
I guess I\'m going to be the lone dissenter in just handing this race over to Saint Liam. I think this horse can ship just fine as evident by previous country hopping travels. His \"subpar\" performances can be explained as just reactions to huge efforts. The question is whether his last was a huge effort? I would argue that it wasn\'t huge, but it certainly was an effort and expect him to regress a point or two off of his last. That being said, given the weight concession and the fact that he\'ll more than likely lose ground on the far turn makes him VERY vulnerable at what\'s sure to be a short price. I agree with others that the keys to wagering on this race are Eurosilver and Wiggins. I especially like Wiggins for the points mentioned in previous posts, second time Romans, racing into shape, never reacted badly to top efforts and a 10 pound weight advantage (that Guidry seems to have made).
I will take the 4-1 on the entry. Commentator may be this good. At least I hope so. Eurosilver underneath. I don\'t think SL puts up one of his BIG ones today and at the weights and distance.....
Nice call on the ROTW and a very bettable price as well at 3-1 ...
I just got back from Saratoga.
Two things stood out for me besides how much I love that place.
I was suprised that Commentator fired another huge shot. I thought that was no lock. I was also a little surprised that St Liam couldn\'t get to him on the turn. I sort of knew Commentator would have a clear early lead and that would help him if he was ready for another big one, but I thought a Grade 1 quality horse like St Liam (who stayed with Ghostzapper in a hell of a ding dong battle last year through a quick middle pace) would be able to put serious pressure on Commentator before the last 70 yards. He didn\'t/couldn\'t. Commentataor has some quality to him too. I don\'t like the winner at equal weights based on what a saw and I think 10F is still a question mark. I also think St Liam would have beaten him if there was someone else in there keeping Comm. honest on the lead (Roses in May?).
One of the reasons I didn\'t think Commentator was any lock to fire another big shot in the Whitney was/is my lack of admiration for his trainer who I think is often clueless about how good his horses are and how well they are doing at any give time. 30 seconds or so into the Noble Causway race my views were affirmed.