These are the most difficult races for me to handicap. I handled them in the past by just ignoring them, but they\'re becoming increasing popular (thank you, greedy, quick return on investment, breed for speed not stamina, etc, etc breeding industry) at tracks around the country, especially during the summer months. I now hear that even Saratoga is cardidng them.
Given that they usually attract large fields, that has to mean there\'s value in these races. I just have a tough time finding it.
My approach starts out the same as with turf routes. Focus only on turf numbers, then look at breeding stats, then look at trainer stats, then look at the jock. OK, so far, so good. But then only 2 of the entrants have more than 2 turf sprint races in the pps, 2 others may have 5 turf races, but they\'re all at a route, 2 of the entrants have eye popping dirt spring numbers, but iffy turf breeding, and the remaining 4 have mediocre dirt sprint numbers, unknown/average turf breeding, and are trained by guys not know for their turf training. So I end up concentrating on the proven turf sprinters and the turfers, then get beat by the 6-1 first timer on turf with the good dirt sprint numbers.
My current thinking is to go into almost total condition handicapping mode, looking for well spaced, forging numbers that promise improvement in the upcoming race, no matter what the surface. My sense is that loving/hating the surface is going to have less to do with a horse\'s performance than his current condition.
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY INSIGHTS INTO HANDICAPPING THESE TURF SPRINTS?!
Dodie-- the short answer is, no. Those are by far my worst category of distance/surface. The only thing I do know is that the horses that win those races are usually specialists.
I just started handicapping the spa\'s Friday card, and guess what race 6 is?! The specialist favorite appears to be Pipe Bomb, with Second in Command an interesting \"2nd tier\" specialist (4th race off layoff, first sprinting on grass). Your garden variety turf router is Long Since Past - toss him.
Traffic Cheif in off long layoff; he\'s a router, so this looks like an obvious prep, although he did break his maiden sprinting and was 3rd in a state bred stake at the spa on the dirt last year, so he\'s not a complete toss, although his breeding for turf is suspect, so, ok, toss him.
Alphabetical has a good turf route, so keep him as a contender. Sinbad the Sailor has ok breeding, so keep him too.
So
Pipe Bomb - legit low price fave
Second in Command - interesting specialist, possibly at a price
Sinbad the Sailor - potential Longshot contender based largely on breeding
Alphabetical - legit turf router who I suspect will be overbet in this spot
Troffci Cheif - try to beat at probable underlay
So I\'d play this race looking for a price on 2IC and/or Sinbad.
Now, this was done just looking at the bris ultimate pp\'s. Let\'s see what our opinion is when the sheets get posted tonight.
This isn\'t going to answer your question, but I think it\'s worth saying. There is nothing wrong with passing races when you don\'t have any insights that give you an edge. If these races become more popular, there will be fewer question marks complicating the analysis because the horses will actually have a record.
If I was going to try to learn about this type of race, I would cut out the PPs for every turf sprint from the DRF every day (and clip them together with the TG numbers). When I had \"at least\" 100 races, I would sit down with a pad, pencil, and Bass Ale and start looking for similarities among the winners and beaten favorites trying to come up with any positive/negative value situations.
Yesterday\'s sprint is perfect example of that. The two specialists finished 1-2.
NC Tony