The main track played much faster Thursday. With sunny skies and no chance of rain, track super John Passero was able to water it throughout the day and running times were slightly slower than normal. Race 2 and 8 were fast, but those were some fast horses.
The turf courses here remain extremely firm and possibly even hard. Running times are extremely quick and with no rain in the forecast for the next five days, it could use some sprinkler action.
FROM THURSDAY NITES HANDICAPPERS EDGE
I appreciate the input, but we get NYRA track maintenance info daily, and I have developed a kind of seat of the pants way of figuring out how fast the track is.
more info from dave litfin:
One thing to know: the track was exceptionally dry and cuppy on opening day, especially after it was sealed and then re-harrowed for the last two dirt races of the day, and trainers were begging the track superintendent for more water on the surface, so some horses may simply not be handling the going right now.
If Jerry starts relying on Dave Litfin for information, it is time for all of us to stop buying the Thorograph product......
Did you catch his opening day wager? He suggestd a $50 win bet on Guillaume Tell, but only if the odds were 2-1 or greater.
I know that guillaume tell was a bet against on T-graph figures and I cashed on the race using t-graph, but my 14 year old could tell you that Guillaume Tell was going to be less than 2-1.
And he is a lead writer for the DRF?
Jimbo-- I certainly don\'t want you to stop buying the product, but in point of fact Litfin is our New York trackman, and a very good one-- especially when it comes to work done on the track. Which has nothing to do with his handicapping.
Jimbo,
Liftin stated during the Siro\'s seminar that the reason he thought he would get 2/1 was that because the morning line maker at Saratoga, Eric Donovan (Now I\'m paraphasing what is next.) was sharp and if he put (I can\'t remember for sure the exact number and I threw my program away.) 5/2 then he can be 5/2. That put 2/1 as a ballpark figure.
I\'m not defending Litfin here but that is what he said at the Siro\'s seminar. I thought the horse would be around even money. I also bet against him but not with the winner (although he was very playable). Good play Jimbo.
xichibanx
Thanks Xichibanx,
I guess what you said confirms my initial point. I would like to think that somebody who does this for a living (work for the DRF as a handicapper), would not need to rely on the morning line for his guidance on price.
Do you follow Litfin\'s column this week? He is recommending 6-5 shots, 8-5 shots, pick-4\'s with all chalk, etc.etc. It would be nice if the DRF would get somebody who can handicap and provide some insight into some decent priced horses. Brad Free out west is at least interesting to read and takes his shots. Brad Thomas at Monmough is one of the ones I happen to think is very good. (just opinion).
Glad to hear he is a better track man than handicapper Jerry....
\"I have developed a kind of seat of the pants way of figuring out how fast the track is.\"
That\'s why I pay $25 a pop for the numbers . How can I get one of your damn hats?bj
BJ-- if you are going to Saratoga, stop by the discussion group and Bill will give you a hat (and every time the talk turns to hats I think about the joke about the Jewish grandmother...). I\'ll be up there next weekend, but Bill will be at the Bally\'s contest, I\'ll have to remember to bring some.
hi jerry
can you tell us the joke?
Might not work in this medium, without accents, but...
Jewish grandmother takes her 5 year old grandson to the beach. Kid\'s playing on the beach when a giant wave comes along and takes him out to sea. The woman is distraught, walking up and down the beach, tearing at her clothes in grief, raising her arms to the sky.
\"God, oh God. Please God, give him back. I don\'t know how I\'ll tell my daughter. Please God, I\'ll do anything, just give him back\".
Another wave comes crashing in, and deposits the kid, coughing up seawater, at the feet of the crying woman. She looks down at him for a second, fixes her clothes, dries her tears, and looks again to the sky.
\"He had a hat\".
On that note,if you like your jokes the dirtier and more politically incorrect the better, see \"The Aristocrats\", which opened a couple of days ago.
Jimbo,
I agree with what you say about Litfin he often does pick the favorite. In his defense, I think he is expected to pick a high percentage of winners and that is why he does picks chalk. There is a group of insane people out there who will say \"Yeah Brad Thomas got lucky and had a longshot winner that paid $70.80\" but Dave Litfin (Using his name as an example only) had 4 winners and a Best Bet even though they were all low single digits. Alot of people that use those kind of handicappers want winners so they can brag and cash that ticket. Even if they have five winners on a twelve race card and lose money.
I also agree with you about Brad Thomas he is not afraid to tear apart chalk and picks longshots that win (Such as the Lemon Drop Kid-Vision and Verse-Charismatic tri or Giacomo on top in the Derby this year).
I think with public handicappers it just depends what approach they use. Someone like Brad Free as you mention isn\'t afraid to take shots. Steve Klein also falls into that category as well.
I think I\'m done rambling for now.
xichibanx
Litfin has a circulation deadline he must meet which is about 48 hours before postime. Very difficult task to do that but he does it well along with most of the other DRF handicappers.
Some of these other guys have the benefit of making a selection 10 minutes before postime where they can observe things. Some of these TV types spend a lot of time on the backstretch talking with trainers who have entrants as part of their pre-race research. These are advantages that people who are in Litfins shoes do not have. He has to do an entire 10 race card probably while he is in the press box watching and observing another 10 race card. And the Weather Channel too.
If it gets down to doing his homework and pure handicapping I will pick Litfin head-to-head against any of these guys.