Any thoughts on tonight\'s card? Usually I don\'t play Del Mar but I will take a swing at a few races (5 -- 8).
I like Hello Fame a little in the 5th but I don\'t think I\'ll get 6-1.
I\'d like to believe that Baffert horse (Sweet Muqtarib) will be overbet in the 6th, and I\'m not wild about those high-weight horses on the outside either. Passionate Heat should like turf (?). This is the kind of race I bet a lot on and lose.
Smart Kitten may move up in the 7th. Beyond this I\'m stumped.
I won\'t take short prices in the 8th, and I figure that Five J\'s is going to get beat by SOMEONE.
I generally do badly at these \"showcase\" meets, especially when they start. Any regulars that could give me some ideas...thanks in advance.
HP
Race 5- I\'m taking a small shot with Charmer Baron...Big price we\'ll see..
Race 6- Bright Midnight looks solid however Knapp only wins when I don\'t bet him.
Race 7- Bid of Genius-Looks okay hopefully they\'ll bet the #1 down.
xichibanx who isn\'t confident.
X,
I lucked out with that DQ in the 7th. A great example of PACE handicapping for me! On the sheets it was tough to make heads or tails of the race (I like Smart Kitten a little) but when I looked at the program, I thought that the 1 (he was bet down to I think 8/5 at post time?) would face some early pressure (and maybe duel out with Smart Kitten) so I played the horses that looked like they would run late (5, 6, 7 & 8) since they were all good prices. I loved the work line on the 7 (20-1) in particular.
I was a little surprised they took the one ALL THE WAY DOWN. I also thought the tri prices were a little light (on some of the other races too). But I\'ll take it.
I got screwed on a DQ in the 5th at EVANGELINE (leaving me only with the 3-1 winner and not the big exacta payoff with my longshot getting DQed from 2nd to 3rd) so I guess I had a break coming.
Del Mar is like the other \"Showcase\" meets -- tempting but tough!
HP
HP,
Good play there. I threw out the #1 in the 7th at DMR as I felt he would be way overbet and bet Bid of Genius. I gave a long look to the winner but went the wrong way..oh well it happens.
That was happened to me alot this meet zigging when I should be zagging I hope this doesn\'t happen at the Spa.
\"Del Mar is like the other \"Showcase\" meets -- tempting but tough!\" I\'ll add one piece to your statement \"and can be very profitable.\"
Best wishes,
xichibanx
If CtC or CH posted they liked a horse, then the horse ran last, and they returned to say they hit the exacta, whoa nellie!
beyerguy,
I get yelled at for the post race analysis that\'s part of my process for finding future bets - even when I admit I lost. :)
Fair points.
I don\'t think xichibanx or I posted much in the way of \"analysis.\"
I guess this is what I get for acknowledging PACE in my handicapping! I knew this was a mistake.
Everyone probably does a few plays \"on the fly\" that don\'t jibe with their ideas from the night before...ah, to hell with it.
I\'ll take my lumps on the past-posting.
HP
Just teasing with you HP, I did not in any way mean to imply you didn\'t hit it, and that\'s a nice hit. Hell, I change my mind 5 times in the last 2 mtp, I wouldn\'t care to guess how many when I post picks early.