nice analysis TG
sweet return should get the perfect trip here from post 2 in this small field. thoro-pattern says a pair is coming, which should win this.
a to the z should get a good trip for most of the race riding the rail in last. thoro-pattern says a pair is coming, which puts him right there. might lose some ground turning for home, so i will have him in second and third.
qsar - tough trip first out, then ran a decent \"3.25\" last. expecting a repeat of that. might lose some ground, but gets in light.
i will key SR on top, and use AtoZ and Qsar underneath in exactas and tris.
Good analysis.
I have a question.
Why is Castledale\'s pattern considered negative?
My initial reaction was to view him as a mediocre 3YO that fired one big shot in the SA Derby at 30-1 that he was unlikely to duplicate. He followed that up with a dreadful race in the Derby in the slop and they stopped on him - probably due to some problems.
The way I see his pattern, he came back as a 4YO as a better horse because I\'m not comparing his comeback figure to the SA Derby. I\'m comparing it to his more typical performance at 3 and prior.
Now he fired another big shot in his last race.
Im my mind, the question is whether this big shot will be followed by a dud or whether this is an improving horse.
IMO, this is an improving horse. He had only 4 starts as a 3YO and they were all early in the year. So he never got a chance to progress the way a more typcial 3YO would have. This move forward was also not as dramatic as in the SA Derby.
I\'m not saying I\'m expecting a faster race in this particular race, that he\'s going to win, or that he\'s good value. I\'m just commenting on my general feeling about this horse. I think his pattern says he\'s getting better.
I\'ll forgive the one off race in an otherwise strong pattern. I\'m thinking FAST AND FURIOUS rebounds to run a big one on Sunday.
I saw his race at Del Mar last year and he closed like a freight train after some early trouble.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Nice way to close out the weekend with a competitive G1 on the turf Sunday night...
Considering the accepted pre-race pace assumptions, the lower profile connections, and the hidden # in his last race \"flop\" it looks like A to the Z could be overlooked and possibly a value play here. Last time Gomez was on he gave a nice rail ride (at 41 to 1!), why not again? (at lower odds obviously)
Sweet Return and Singletary will both take lots of cash and will be little value considering the question marks. Sweet Return regressed 1 & 1/2 pts in this race last year and Brad Free loves him, and who\'s to say he wont be 2W both turns if the pace is slow as anticipated by his supporters in the first place? Mullins and Frankel will also take their (usual) share of cash and the other McAnally has also been well supported so far.
Considering how evenly matched these are, this one will most likely be decided by trip (as mentioned at the top of the TG analysis) which makes value essential. Is A to the Z fifth choice in here?
flush,
i picked SR on top because i thought he would get the perfect trip on top. now i\'m reading the DRF and the top headline for sunday is \"sweet trip up front?\". this might be a case where the other jocks take their mounts out of their game because SR looks so obvious on top. if gomez sticks to his guns and makes one run with AttZ, he just might save ground around both turns, and fire up the rail late. tough call. if they hammer SR down too low, i might have to consider using AttZ on top.
I don\'t think SR looks so obvious to make the lead.
Singletary and SR have raced against each other a few times and Singletary was in front in those races. Singletary is coming out a 1M race with a reasonable pace and SR is coming out of 10F race where they were absolutely crawling early. Finally, Singletary is inside SR.
Obviously, you can never be certain about these things, but I actually think that Singletary will be on the lead and Sweet Return will be sitting in the perfect position by being in 2nd because Singletary\'s best distance seems to be 8F and not 9F. SR might get first run at a weakening horse and the early jump on the rest of the closers like Castledale, A to the Z in a moderately paced race etc...
I see a change of form here...Castledale looks like it\'ll be coast to coast, with A/Z second.
Michael,
I just read the article you referenced where the trainer of Singletary said he\'s going to take him back. Personally, I think that\'s a mistake, even if he wins. I think he\'s got a quick enough horse to make the lead with very minimal risk of going too fast early. By taking back, he\'s just going to make it easier for Sweet Return to wire the field with a loose lead, in a soft pace, on the rail -thus reducing his own chances of winning.
They raced each other on these 4 dates (that I could find) and Singletary was in front every time.
7/23 2003
8/16 2003
3/6 2004
4/9 2005
IMO, the interesting thing is going to be the prices/values and not trying to select the winner from among several relatively evenly matched contenders.
classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I just read the article you referenced where the
> trainer of Singletary said he\'s going to take him
> back. Personally, I think that\'s a mistake, even
> if he wins. I think he\'s got a quick enough horse
> to make the lead with very minimal risk of going
> too fast early. By taking back, he\'s just going to
> make it easier for Sweet Return to wire the field
> with a loose lead, in a soft pace, on the rail
> -thus reducing his own chances of winning.
>
> They raced each other on these 4 dates (that I
> could find) and Singletary was in front every
> time.
>
> 7/23 2003
> 8/16 2003
> 3/6 2004
> 4/9 2005
>
> IMO, the interesting thing is going to be the
> prices/values and not trying to select the winner
> from among several relatively evenly matched
> contenders.
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 07/23/05 04:13PM by
> classhandicapper.
Even if he wins its a mistake!!!
PARTYpokerON!
Drex,
\"Even if he wins its a mistake!!! \"
Yes, I think so.
Horses win every day despite the incompetence of their jockies and trainers in terms of race development, bias etyc... The idea is to maximize your chances of winning, not hope your horse is so good it can overcome stretegic mistakes. I suspect that only a handful of jockies bother to even read the DRF to get a clue about how the race/pace may set up and most trainers aren\'t much better. A few notable exceptions are Frankel/Bailey and Velasquez.
AttZ scratched
Bet $50 to win on Gun Salute in the Jefferson Cup at CD only to see him hammered down in the final minutes to go off as a 8-5 chalk who came up empty in the stretch. Considered betting him today before I left on a golf outing but became concerned the 3 he ran at Keeneland in April had set him back and wasn\'t sure he would bounce back this soon. Felt the favorite had received a dream trip in last and was beatable. I passed on the race only to return and see he paid a generous $9.40.
I know there are plenty of you out there who are screaming for me to pull the trigger but I have been zigging when I should have been zagging so badly lately that I did and the barrel was pointed out, not in.
Interesting analysis on the Ed Reed tomorrow. I have been paying more attention to the Thoro-Patterns because I think they are more useful from mid-year on than in the beginning of the year because the layoff angle renders the pattern useless.
Of the four major contenders (A to Z is now out) they all were around 50% to pair their respective tops which is what it will take to win. Little difficult to venture outside this group (on the win side) since the others look slow. Not much of forward percentage built into any of the entrants tomorrow so the entire race may boil down to price, pace and trips.
Thorgraph is negative on Castledale but Mullins is around 50% pair with this pattern and the horse has good rest coming in.
This race looks so tight I\'m not sure I could make a selction if you put a gun to my head.
Everyone in unison for the answer to this question.
Why do we run the race ....TO WIN!
Why do we point a horse to a certain race?....TO WIN!
Why does c.h. make repugnant statements and procede to defend his honor?...class..class?? (not c.h.)
EVEN IF HE WINS ITS A MISTAKE!
PARTYpokerON!
Davidrex,
I\'m really surprised you don\'t understand what I am saying even if you happen to disagree with my view on the correct strategy for the horse. Just because a horse wins, that does not mean he was the correct horse to bet, was ridden properly, or that the jockey was given the correct instructions. To me, that seems too obvious to debate.
If you said you think the correct strategy is to take the horse back. That would make some sense to me. If you said you would still think that even if the horse wired, that would make some sense to me.
A horse that runs a superior race can win with a variety of trips, or if their major competition gets a poor trip, or if the competition fails to fire, etc... but usually one trip or strategy optimizes the chances of winning given all the possible trips and performances by the various contenders. Winning doesn\'t prove the strategy used was the best one.
With, A To The Z out, a straight tri...Castledale/Sweet Return/Singletary...It looks like a mortal lock.
Thanks for the selection SPA.
I feel like a winner already.
SC,
I see I\'m not the only one who is zigging when he should be zagging.
Oh well.
As for the ROTW I\'m going to take a shot with the 6 if he is 6/1 or higher. I don\'t really like Castledale or Singletary and the others (2,3,5) I can see in positive and negative lights. I wouldn\'t be suprised if any of them won but I\'ll take the price. #6 has decent European form and a possiblity of improvement at a price in a race where I feel the favorites are not locks.
Good Luck,
xichibanx
Isn\'t it somehow comforting that when all is said and done and all informed opinions aside that the odds board still has the last say? Singletary and the fence at 5-1. Right play win or lose.
singletary has no chance.
with the AttZ scratch, that was a pretty easy $7 winner. singletary ran well, and will be very tough to beat when he cuts back to mile
Brilliant strategy by trainer Chatlos and rider Flores to give their main competition a clear early lead in a paceless race and turn it into a 3 furlong sprint with the other horse having a length and a half lead....NOT!
i really would like to see that photo.i cant beleive the 3 was second.
class,
i\'m afraid singletary would have flattened out late if he ran faster earlier. SR is the better 9f horse.
Michael,
I also thought Singletary was suspect at 9F, but this strategy virtually guaranteed a loss unless the front runner threw in a real stinker and Singletary inherited the lead.
How could they think they would outkick a horse that would have a 1 1/2 length lead in a crawling pace when their own horse is suspect in the last furlong to begin with?
I would have considered playing Singletary at 4-1/5-1 until I read that they were taking him back. Thanks for pointing that out. You saved me a few dollars. If only you talked me into the winner. :)
something tells me the frankel horse in the third would have won this race by a few lengths.
Good hit Michael. I was out and missed the race, but I have to agree with the guy who posted that at 4/5 to 1, Singletary was a good bet. I know the 1 1/8 was suspect, but he was co-fastest and a good price in a short field.
I don\'t want to get Class started, but this was the second major turf race this weekend where \"pace made the race\". Cool Conductor yesterday and Sweet Return today.
5-2 was fair, with all the money that Castledale took.
I am guessing that a lot of TGraph users got burned on that tight photo, because when you look at the figures and closing odds, you are pretty compelled to box Singletary and Sweet Return.
Michael, I guess i wasn\'t as impressed as you with the Frankel horse in the 3rd. He closed a ton, but the horse he got by late was an allowance horse who usually stops on a dime. Singletary is a BC winner and Sweet Return is a grrade 1 winner.
jim,
will be interesting to see how TG puts #\'s on those two races. if you make them clean speed figures, three valleys probably gets the better #. it\'s likely TG will make a major pace adjustment on the stakes race though, and make it much faster. BTW, TV is a very well bred juddmonte farms horse. timeform of 119 in his second start - you don\'t see that too often. he ran a length faster than AttZ in the citation last year (would have been more if he had clear run in the stretch). i\'m sure he will be with the big boys next out, will be interesting.
Good call by TG regarding the poor pattern Castledale had prior to his last big effort and therefore being a very vulnerable favorite. He really never got into the race.
The whole race came down to Sweet Return being as fast as any of the three big contenders and being the lone speed. Period.
Singletary briefly tried to go after him, and it probably cost him second.
Forty Niners Son never tried to win just get the best placing possible.
Jimbo,
\"I don\'t want to get Class started, but this was the second major turf race this weekend where \"pace made the race\". Cool Conductor yesterday and Sweet Return today. \"
Not to mention the Salvator mile at MTH.
\"5-2 was fair, with all the money that Castledale took. \"
That \"was\" a fair price. I was sort of kicking myself for not taking it after the race. I was a little less negative on Castledale than some people because I think he\'s getting better and had decent chance of running well again, but they overbet him by a lot. Even if you felt very confident that he was going to fire another big one (which I wasn\'t) he was still going to have to overcome the pace disadvantage. He was almost certainly an underlay as the favorite.
I was giving Sweet Return 30% of the race, Singletary 20%, and Castledale 20%.
CH---
I don\'t agree. SINGLETARY needs a target to run at. I used F&F to suck up second behind SWT RTRN, but he\'s probably better off going longer. With no pace to run at, he does not have the turn of foot to make an impact in that type of race.
Good effort by 49ERS SON who has the makings of a real good one.
Thank goodness Saratoga begins this week.
Good Luck,
joe B.
Getting back to the Eddie Read and CASTLEDALE/SINGLETARY.
With turf races providing closer finishes than dirt races, post position, weight and running style are even more important factors. This is constantly emphasized in THORO\'s analysis whenever the ROTW is a turf race.
Another important factor, often overlooked by most, is the success of a turf runner at the distance. Whereas many dirt runners may be as proficient at 1 1/8th as they are at 7f or 1 mile, it\'s a rare turf horse that can excel at multiple distances. This may be even more pronounced with turf milers. Most are milers, not milers and an eight, especially when competing against graded runners.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
joe,
I wouldn\'t argue what the best way for Singletary to run is. You may be right that he perfers a target to run at under typcial circumstances.
I would just argue that he had almost no chance to win yesterday \"at 9F\" given the way they chose to run because the winner was very similar in ability and loose on the lead in a slow pace with 1 1/2 length head start when the real running began.
If you read through the whole thread we discussed some of this prior to the race.
Singletary and Sweet return had run against each 4 times in the past and Singletary was in front of SR in all those starts. He had the option of trying for the lead or at least making SS work a little. They made a choice to take back yesterday and said they would do so in a DRF article. I thought it was mistake when I read it and I still think it was.
IMHO, once they let SS loaf on the lead, they were conceding the victory to him or praying that he was just going to come up empty. Perhaps he would have lost anyway (maybe even worse) if he tried for the lead, but he couldn\'t win this way.
Anyone this has already been overdiscussed.
Class,
You are correct about the Salvator mile, but I am blocking that from memory. After deciding that Cherokee\'s Boy was going to be alone on the lead and very dangerous (consistently runs in the \"1\" range), I somehow made a last minute decisioni to Snookie\'s Boy, thinking that with the rail edge and an aggressive Stewart Elliot, the horse might run back to his 2004 form where he gave Lion Heart fits.
As for your odds line, why would you kick yourself for not taking 5-2 on a horse that you thought had a 30% chance to win? That doesn\'t make sense at all. 5-2 is 28.6%.
CH--
You\'re right. Under the circumstances, SINGLETARY had no shot. But no way I\'m getting into a pre-race pace scenario here.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Class,
You should pat yourself on the back. Anytime you pass at 5/2 it\'s the right thing to do. You\'re not going to the track to make 5/2! You can do better than that. If I look at a race and the best I can do is 5/2 I\'ll pass it every time.
HP
My take, not that its worth all that,
9 furlongs is just to far for Singletary but I believe he is the best \"mile\" canidate in there, duh he won last year, but I think he is world class at that distance this year as well.
What ever happened to the frankel horse Leroid\'s that looked so awsome at santa anita?
Anyway, Castledale was a terrible chalk IMO but I bet singletary, oh well, 4/1 seemed fair to me. He just needs a bit shorter.
HP,
keying big on a $7 horse in a pk3 or p4, or even a pk6, is excellent handicapping, and can lead to big scores. if you are just looking for action every race, go to the dog track. they run races every ten minutes, and they finish in about thirty seconds.
..........
in fact, many also keyed big on sun king ($7.40) in last week\'s ROTW. i think a few wound up taking home large sums of money, partly because they understood that race. think any of the guys in the IRS line at Del were taking the view that it never makes sense to use a $7 horse?
Jimbo,
>As for your odds line, why would you kick yourself for not taking 5-2 on a horse that you thought had a 30% chance to win? That doesn\'t make sense at all. 5-2 is 28.6%. <
With a rebate it was a borderline bet.
I think I also tend to be a bit too conservative in my estimation of the chances of my top horse winning (and overestimate other contenders a bit).
Michael,
I agree with you.
If you can find a few horses that are \"borderline good value\" as win bets and can hook them up in a pick 3 etc... there\'s often great value on the combination.
leroids, running at Saratoga in the fourstardave.
Michael,
I hate multi-race bets. I keep track of my plays and after two years without a doubt the biggest black hole in my wallet comes from pick 3\'s (I never even attempt the pick 6). If you get results more power to you...
I\'m content to pick up what I can race-by-race. My bankroll isn\'t huge, and I\'d rather put more money into an individual race where I feel good. HP
thats interesting that he is opting for that spot when you had the eddie read for 400k and the del mar breeders cup for 250k at a mile as well.