Kind of interesting that after all of the commentary on Woke Up Dreaming\'s True North race and his subsequent Calder victory, nobody is talking about the fact that SMOKEUME won easily at odds of 5/1 in the Tom Fool today at Belmont.
Richiebee,
You are right and I wanted to post about this but it would sound too much like redboarding. i was at the track all day and had no computer access to post about the race, but I thought Smokeume was a great bet. Even without re-assessing the True North, this horse was fast enough to win and had just won over a wet track.
I thought 5-2 was a fair price without considering Chantal Sutherland riding. As per my posting last week about betting Santos and other jockeys who I consider to be bad, I upped 5-2 to 7-2 as the price I would take. 5-1 was very generous.
The problem was the exacta. The \"proper\" play was probably to use Smokeume with the other two horses coming out of the True North, Wily of the Valley and Voodoo. But I was very discouraged by the race that wily of the valley ran that day, so I used Voodoo and Clever Electrician (who ran a pretty fast T-graph number). So I got the 5-1, but missed the exotics, which were also OK at $55 and $200+.
It is up to Jerry if he wants to restate the True North, but for my betting purposes, enough evidence is in. That race was a key race and faster than the figure it was given.
Jimbo:
I\'m glad you caught the flat bet, Jimbo. The only reason I really followed the race was because of the dialogue about WUD on the board. There is a lot of good information and dialogue on this board, its just that sometimes you have to wade through so much crap to get to it. Sometimes its my own crap, but so be it.
I agree that enough has been seen to consider the TN a key race. What to do with the 2nd place finisher in the TN, Voodoo? Ran last yesterday, but only beaten about 7 lengths or so. He hasn\'t won in 2 years; during that time he has been beaten 3 times by horses trained by H Allen Jerkens-- Smokume, Medallist, Mike\'s Classic. He also ran well in last year\'s Vosburgh, behind Pico Central, ahead of Speightstown at 23/1. Maybe Voodoo is the one it pays to follow?
It could pay to follow Voodoo, but something about the horse concerns me. Look at his graph if you get the chance. He almost always fires his best shot off the layoff. He doesn\'t get better 2nd or 3rd off the layoff (at least not in the past few years).
It is what made him a live longshot in the True North and probably an underlay yesterday. Unfortunately for me, I can\'t quite get him right. I used him in the True North at great odds, but hated the winner, Woke Up Dreaming. And then I used him yesterday, which was not a good move.
I think we can watch him going forward, but I would be careful with him, because of his penchant for firing best fresh. Maybe he gets 45 days off and returns at the end of the Saratoga meeting at a price?
Jimbo-- I will be reviewing Belmont day later at the end of this week. As you said, the longer you wait, the more horses run back-- which is bad, but necessary if you are to have info with which to review. When looking at a situation like this (or High Limit, for that matter), it\'s important to keep in mind there are lots of other horses in those races, and in most cases the surrounding races are relevant as well.
Smokeume had at least 2 big ones in his last 3 whether you thought the 6/11 figure was accurate or not, and I made a 3 horse tri box (hit it), and 2 horse exacta box (didn\'t).
By the way, given the watering issues and changing track on Belmont Day, almost anything could come from that review, from changing none, to changing just that one, to changing several. I\'m also interested in taking a look at the Riva Ridge, where LITF did not get a very good figure.