Oh well,
Sure can\'t determine why Sun King is shorter morning line odds than High Limit. Don\'t expect that to last. The loss of Scrappy T really impacted this race, he laid over these by far. Now its a small field that is more closely matched and best form will probably shake it out. Still can\'t favor Sun King. He\'s started giving too much ground and he\'s shortening up here, that looks to play into High Limit\'s hands, as does teh pace. If HL is 7-2 in this short a field thats better than turf odds. Don\'t anticipate it. The Delaware Handicap is where the money is. :)
Using the concept of small field big price......Golden Man/High Limit, straight. Pretty cool, you get a faster horse and 7 pounds.
spa Wrote:
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> Using the concept of small field big
> price......Golden Man/High Limit, straight. Pretty
> cool, you get a faster horse and 7 pounds.
The thing is though, to this point, Golden Man is a one hit wonder. He\'s Buggles with \"Video killed the radio star\", or a slew of other one timers. Add to that the one timer was at Hallandale which didn\'t change a whole helluva lot with the new surface. In fact, the dang track got even more biased in some respects. Horses like it or they dont. (Granted Golden Man ran against the prevailing bias to some extent in that GP race.) Sure hes with the juicers and maybe thats enough to go with. The seven pounds is very tempting, but he ran light last too. Was it bounce that stopped him or better horses or a surface he didn\'t relish? Just can\'t get enthusiastic about a 5 horse field where three could win. Favoring High Limit, but hes gonna be 9-5 or less and thats too short. Theres better racing with very nice payout potential elsewhere on the card.
CTC:
The man gives you the sheets for the ROTW GRATIS every week, yet your posts contain the usual \"Chucklespeak\". Where\'s your TG based analysis?
Great point yesterday about the lack of betting value in turf races. If you bet $2 on EVERY horse that ran on the turf at Belmont Saturday, I believe you came out a winner.
I guess the reason that TGJB allows you to post is to keep us all \"LOLing\"
richiebee Wrote:
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> CTC:
>
> The man gives you the sheets for the ROTW GRATIS
> every week, yet your posts contain the usual
> \"Chucklespeak\". Where\'s your TG based analysis?
You want TG analysis on that Five horse card?....are you serious?...lol I think TGraph picked it thinking Scrappy was gonna be vulnerable going in. Hard to back that position. He did scratch though, so maybe they were right. You TG analyze it for us. Its only five horses..I\'ll bet even you can get close to that one. :)
> Great point yesterday about the lack of betting
> value in turf races. If you bet $2 on EVERY horse
> that ran on the turf at Belmont Saturday, I
> believe you came out a winner.
I\'ll stick by the lack of betting value in turf racing position, though yesterday\'s belmont card was interesting. There was a lot of burnt money on some of those high odds winner races. It wasn\'t mine, but I may have got close to the MSW big payer if I was foolish enough to wager on turf. Bad day yesterday Richie?...mine wasnt :)
Later: Did a quick TGraph Red Board on the off chance there might be statistical merit to your Belmont 7/16 rebuttal.
1st-winner at 15-1 decent back numbers on year layoff.
4th-40-1 winner. This is the type of race I was referring to where Turf can be wagered upon. The winner didn\'t figure on TGraph, he certainly did on breeding and first effort.
8th 26-1 winner. I don\'t think this horse figured a lick on Tgraph. But you\'re free to draw you\'re own conclusions.
The Mig on an almost 5-1 winner also occured. Don\'t find that out of bounds so didn\'t bother red boarding that race.
You\'re rebuttal was thoroughly rebutted on the red board unless you like one year layoff cheap animals...lol
lol
Golden Man must be an iron horse, too...he ran third yesterday - about 4 hrs prior to spa\'s post!
All the good racing this weekend and THIS is the ROTW? Sounds to me like Thorograph is still trying to get out from under all the glomming they did on High Limit during the Triple Crown campaign. It\'s time to admit this year\'s Louisiana Derby was WAY over-rated by Thorograph. To wit: Vicarage and Wall Street Scandal couldn\'t be found in their next starts (Vicarage went to further humiliation - lengths clear in the Derby Trial a quarter out and still hit the wall); Storm Surge yet to win out of that race. I don\'t think ANY horse has come out of the 2005 LA Derby and won anything significant.
High Limit is ordinary, and his TG figures are way out of sync with what he\'s actually accomplished on the racetrack. He\'s TG\'s new Brancusi. Remember him? He was seriously hyped as a strong Derby contender too by TG that year, despite having accomplishments WAY below par. And like High Limit, he finished last in the Derby too.
Ctc,
You pick select day\'s or races to prove your point. I can do the same to prove you wrong.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbSummaryResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=CNL&CY=USA&DATE=07/05/2005&STYLE=EQB
I\'d say there is value in turf racing.
This particlar point of view doesn\'t hold water.
NC Tony
CTC:
ENOUGH WITH THE SMILEY FACES!@#%*
I will not analyze any races at Del because for all the slots and inflated purses, it was a much better track in the late 70s early 80s when Del Carroll (Sr.), Ron Alfano and King Leatherbury were training there and Vince (Jimbo) Bracciale was riding.
Chuckles, I\'m happily married and I live in the greatest country in the world. The \"magic kingdom\" will be open in 10 days. So no, yesterday wasn\'t a \"bad day\" but thanks for asking.
I try to stay away from irrelevant posts these days, but some of your broad and laughable generalizations, usually backed only by chucklebluster, provide irresistable targets.
IMHO, High LImit is the most likely winner today, though I would have favored Scrappy T over him because I think ST\'s Wood performance chasing Bellamy Road\'s pace is generally underrated. Scrappy is a nice solid horse with 3 good performances in a row and good speed.
Now though, I think it\'s pretty clear HL was aimed for this race. I see no reason he can\'t control the race on the lead even if there\'s someone like SK stalking him.
IMHO, he was overrated in the spring because of the speed figure \"everyone\" gave him for the LD race. IMO, there was nothing wrong with the Louisana Derby figure the way some suggest. It was just a generally non-comeptitive affair on a flukey track where the horses walked around the track 1 - 2 -3 with no challenges. HL was the loose easy leader getting the easiest kind of trip. He ran OK in the BG (in the controversial figure), had no chance in the Derby because of the pace setup and some trouble. He ran fine in the Preakness given that he was battling off Once Wild in a mildly fast pace at a distance that might have been a hair too far. If he doesn\'t win today, then he just doesn\'t have the \"goods\". He\'s been a decent, if very overrated horse all along and today\'s a day he can shine.
Sun King showed some ability last year and came back running in his debut -leading everyone to believe he was a leading TC candidate. IMHO, he hasn\'t done much since and has probably been overbet in every race since then because of his reputation. I don\'t think he should be favored today but he might be because of that reputation. These are the kinds of situations that Zito sometimes does well in, but not with my money (obviously not a Zito fan) . IMO, this horse should be 2nd choice and I won\'t have any trouble ripping up a ticket on HL if they make SK a solid favorite here. IMO, his best chance to win is stalking HL in a slow pace and hoping HL comes up empty.
i think we\'ve seen the first sign of the apocalypse, i\'m going to agree with ctc on a race. i\'ll take high limit for a new big hdtv bob.
golden man is running today... ahahahahah. got to love dutrow.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> Ctc,
>
> You pick select day\'s or races to prove your
> point. I can do the same to prove you wrong.
>
>
>
> I\'d say there is value in turf racing.
>
> This particlar point of view doesn\'t hold water.
>
> NC Tony
>
>
Tony, the Belmont day was picked by Richie. I don\'t bet Turf unless its MSW or surface switch. I tried to state why. My theory is that with generally so few turf races on a card the performance figures are not as grooved. (N.Y. runs a lot of turf races this time of year though.) The grass keeps the soil beneath from visually changing, but weather impacts the grass course significantly. As a consequence of generally so few turf races its much harder to get a handle on the variant. Add traffic, trouble and generally more subtle pace swings to the mix and its just not sufficiently reliable for me. Generally what you see in turf racing is which low odds favorite got the best trip or the occasional race Richie pointed to at Elmont yesterday. (Though there were three...lol) He\'s right though, sometimes you get winners that make little sense on turf and that in my opinion is related to the inability to more precisely calculate variants which impact the final figure. Its just more of a crapshoot in my opinion and I also believe the animals are generally weaker there. Though theres the occasional Giant\'s Causeway or Dubai Millenium sure.
If you follow racing at Longchamps or The Curragh thats entirely different. The turf racing is consistent and the courses cater to it. This is America however. We race dirt here. Turf events here are merely a token to breeders and handicappers that like their racing on grass. I handicap turf...on Breeders Cup day.
Golden Man cannot run today, can he? The ROTW sure took a trashing. Is it possible that we\'ll get a match race? High Limit has burned a lot of my money. If he\'s 7/5, I\'ll bite.......
I don\'t play many turf races, but I think most people agree that:
1. It\'s tougher to get an accurate track variant on days when there are few turf races or they are run at very different distances. Plus the rails are moved in and out which further complicates time/distance relationships.
2. The pace is frequently very slow. That complicates getting an accurate variant, and worse, interpreting the results. A very slow pace could have impacted different horses differently depending on their early position. A very slow pace can also limit how fast dominant horses can run because they can only come home \"so fast\".
3. Ground loss is a huge factor because when they are very wide on the turn in a turf race, almost all the horses are really \"motoring\" at that point. The pace is often picking up on the turn after the slower beginning. Thus it\'s harder for a horse to improve its positon and put itself in a positon to win. That\'s different than in dirt races where horses are often tiring at that point and the pace is slowing down giving a horse a chance to get into position - sometimes without even going all out.
Personally, I put less weight on the final time figures and more on who beats who, how consistently, and by how much (class), ground loss, and late speed times.
What\'s Dutrow\'s percentage of tops returning in 23 hours? And where is the ASPCA??? Tapping out for next years budget?
At the current odds (5-2) the bet is a fresh Sun King. 1/2 on High Limit? He may win but please.
HL obviously has a big pace advantage here, but 3/5?
hoping zito has SK cranked up here, and he should not be too far behind with the addition of blinkers. i\'ll take SK at 5/2.
Agreed. 3-5 is silly. Pass for me. I don\'t like SK enough to try to beat him. WTF is this with Golden Man? I assumed he was scratched and it just wasn\'t posted yet!
I would like to know exactly how it came to pass that a thoroughbred ran in stakes races at two different tracks on consecutive days.
Was this the owner\'s decision? Is the owner currently cash strapped, and desparately in need of any and all purse moneys the animal can generate?
Did the stewards at Delaware exert pressure on the animal\'s connections to run, which enabled Del Park to offer tri wagering?