Anybody check out the Mother Goose on Saturday? Summerly would be a great bet against as the favorite. She is the morning line favorite off the win in the Oaks, but I think it is probably wishful thinking on my part that she goes off favorite here. She won a Grade 1 with an \"off\", and looks a little off form, off the \"10\" followed by a \"5\". Add to that she missed time due to illness and the trainer is on record that she is not as tight as she was for the Oaks, and you have a horse to \"throw out\", hopefully at short odds.
Smuggler would be the bet for me, assuming she goes off the 3rd choice. She got down to a \"2\" last time in a very good race in the Acorn, against some sharp horses. She is third off the layoff, which for Shug, makes her about 51% to pair up or run a new top. She has experience over the Belmont track, unlike the other two favorites, and has already proven she likes the 1 turn routes. My concern is that she has already progressed 7 points off the 2-year old top, combined with only 3 weeks between the tough Acorn race and the race Saturday.
Spun Sugar is only slightly slower, having run a \"3\" in the Black-Eyed Susans. With more rest, and a very healthy looking pattern, you could probably make a case she is more likely to run a new top on Saturday. I worry that the \"3\" was slightly aided by a sloppy surface she is bred to love and since I expect her to go off the favorite, I like the better price on the faster horse, in Smuggler.
For triples, I would throw out Summerly and look at Seeking the Ante, she is moving forward nicely, down to a 4.5 in her last and has shown an affinity for Belmont.
Advanced apologies for this last comment to HP, but Smuggler at 5-2 looks like a great bet to me...........
i\'m guessing it takes a \"2\" or so here.
seeking the ante - got her trip last time and ran a \"4.5\". comes back on three week rest. could pick up some pieces if they go crazy going after summerly, but i am not predicting an improvement here.
smuggler - ran a very nice # last in a tough race. i think this filly has room to improve, but not sure it\'s coming here with three weeks rest. looking for a run in the \"3-4\" range.
spun sugar - nice forward moving pattern. last was over a tiring surface, and she finished well. gets a decent pace to track. hoping for a move to the \"1-2\" range here.
winning season - only three lengths off sis city with a three wide trip last year. ran decent in her first start this year, caught a dead rail next, then ran decent last. lucas should have her wound up pretty good with four week to prepare. hoping for a small move forward here.
lady pegasus - not sure really. seems bailey got to the bottom of her last, and she ran a decent \"6\". not sure she will improve here.
summerly - expecting a repeat of last. hoping to beat her at low odds.
spun sugar for me, with winning season a use as a longshot.
good luck!!
I\'m in your camp on this one. It\'s hard to like a favorite that missed some training coming into a race of this caliber when the trainer is admitting that she\'s not 100%. Besides, she wouldn\'t be a layover even if she was 100%.
I\'m limited in what I can say about her last race coming up a bit slow, but I think it can at least be noted that In the Gold came out of that \"slow race\" to run quite well in the Acorn. I might also note that some of her faster races prior occurred under what some people viewed as \"favorable conditions\".
On the plus side, I think she has enough speed to control this. Any horse that has enough quality to take control from Sis City (even a sub par Sis City) and then repulse a very strong mid race bid has enough quality to put away horses like Lady Pegasus and Winning Season at their current level. Unless one of the quality horses keeps her honest too, she will be tough even if she\'s an underlay.
Assuming we are lucky enough to get a chance to bet against her as a solid favorite, I probably lean towards Smuggler \"a hair\" over Spun Sugar. However, IMO it\'s so close it doesn\'t matter much. The odds will probably be more important. They are both lightly raced, improving, from high quality barns etc... I just think Smuggler might be a hair better than some people think for a few reasons I won\'t get into. I would just suggest you look at the final 3 furlongs of the Three Rings. The last race speaks for itself.
I would not make anything of In the Gold running an improved race in the Acorn, over the Oaks. As I posted on this board before the Acorn, In the Gold wants no part of 2 turns and despite what looks like decent breeding, is a much faster horse in sprints. The mistake I made, was thinking she could get a flat mile. If you watched the Acorn, you know In the Gold doesn\'t even want a mile. She looped the whole field, then backed up in the last 100 yards. So, my long-winded explanation is that the improved figure in the Acorn for In the Gold, does nothing in my mind to question the figure of Summerly in the Oaks.
I agree that Spun Sugar and Smuggler are close. Post time odds will probably drive me to one or the other, although like you, I do prefer Smuggler. I wait the possibility of Spun Sugar\'s last race being sloppy track aided, slighly more probable than Smuggler regressing off the 3 week rest.
Not piling on Class, but I think I like your specific pace analysis, better than your implied, hinting, pace analysis........
jimbo,
I agree in the gold looks best around one turn, but I think she flattened out beacause bejarano made this crazy move looping the field into a wicked pace. If he is more patient he wins going away. In the Gold ran great, and smuggler maybe even better being part of that pace. This seems like to quick a turn around for smuggler given the extreme effort, which in the summer does not often lead to pari ups (though I dont have the stats form the t-patterns on it)
WS hit the half in :45.3 in her last route, and lady pegasus has run sub :47 halves in her last two (frankel has also been training speed into her in the mornings). and don\'t forget, SS can get a half in :45 and change, and and smuggler just ran a :45 half in her last. i have seen bailey pull off amazing feats, but he\'s up against some very aggressive foes here, especially in castellano and coa. even if prado pulls back a bit, which i think he will, this race won\'t be stolen by anyone. it\'s gut check time for all of these fillies.
I agreed with you prior to the Acorn about In the Gold. I still think her Acorn performance helps validate the quality of the Kentucy Oaks to some degree despite it being pretty slow. Memorette also came out of there with a good race and Rugula came back with a win on the turf. Runway Model was terrible off that race, but she looks like she\'s just done. Gallant Secret was also bad out of there, but she was 43-1 the day she ran well.
I can\'t elaborate too much without getting into unwelcomed analysis.
I hear you.
I don\'t want to get into too much, but since horses rate, I don\'t think recent fractions are the best way of telling who will get the lead or how fast the pace will be. I prefer looking at running styles and quality. I think a sharp Summerly lays over WS and LP. I can\'t see them bothering her much even if she winds up just stalking them for awhile. I\'d feel more confident of her not controlling matters if I was confident of either Spun Sugar or Smuggler prompting the action just in case. As you said, they can, but will they? Probably.
i think summerly is a slight overlay at the 8/5 morning line. not enough to play, but an overlay nonetheless.
Summerly an overlay at 8-5? Based on what? She isn\'t as fast as either Smuggler or Spun Sugar on T-Graph figures or on Beyers for that matter. She is a Grade 1 winner and beat the fastest 3 year old this year handily (Sis City), but I have to believe that the detention barns at Churchill had something to do with that.
The edge Summerly has is a \"pace\" one. Bailey has the quickest horse and the outside post, giving him a tactical advantage. He could give the horse a similar ride to the one he gave Oratory in the Peter Pan.
By the way, if you think 8-5 is an overlay, this race will probably be bettable for you. Based on what I have seen in the \"matchups\" offshore, Smuggler will be the favorite, followed closely by Spun Sugar, leaving Summerly the 3rd choice. Summerly is only 9-5 to finish in front of Seeking the Ante.
You might get 5-2.
i strongly doubt summerly will be third choice in here. i fully expect her to be favored. although, her and smuggler both at 2/1 wouldn\'t be much of a surprise.
i give her about a 40% chance to win. that means i\'ll be wrong on the race more often than i\'ll be right. i wouldn\'t be making any straight wagers on the race at 2/1. however, if i get 5/2, i\'ll be at the window (virtually).
good luck on your wagers.
I\'ll take Spun Sugar........
If Summerly isn\'t taking much money, it will probably force me to watch the race and root for her. :)
We\'ll the early odds will be up shortly.
Heard lots of bad talk about Summerly, hard to see why. If shes third choice thats goofy.
If shes neck and neck at the end with Seeking the Ante not sure thats bad commentary on Summerly.
Well,
Summerly is the favorite. So much for extrapolating from the matchup odds....
Looks like there won\'t be much between the top three by race time, although Spun Sugar looks like the 3rd choice.
Almost all combinations of exactas of the top three are paying $16. THe public can\'t make up their minds either.
Gonna stick with Smuggler and box him with Spun Sugar, throwing out Summerly. I think Smuggler came out of the best race and is top fig on T-Graph. I like that combination. (I know the Oaks is a Gr. 1 and the most prestigious race for 3-year old fillies, but the Acorn was a very tough group IMO)
That was fun. :)
Win and exacta.
At the 1/4 pole I thought she was going to win for fun and by the 1/8 pole I was yelling at the TV. :)
Spun Sugar hung in there tough. Summerly ran a strange race (or Bailey rode a strange race). 24 to the first quarter, shouldn\'t Summerly have been on the lead.
6.00 and 17.60 wasn\'t exactly a gift, but a win is a win.
Had a matchup on the race where Spun Sugar and Smuggler were even money against the field. I thought I was getting \"value\" but actually based on closing prices, it was a bad bet. But I thought they were the two most likely winners.
On to the feature at Churchill Downs + the big Turf race at Colonial Downs.
Any opinions?
smuggler ran well. nice pick jim. summerly did the same thing she did in the Oaks - fall apart late. ran a :13.3 final eighth in both races. spun sugar wasn\'t impressive at all in my opinion. a perfect trip from castellano, and she couldn\'t hold off smuggler in a 13 second final eighth.....
and by the way, i\'m not the expert here, i went with SS, but 6/5 on summerly?? not very sharp betting on the public\'s part.
I looked at it. I was thinking of Gators and Bears rebounding with a big effort, but at this price I\'ll pass.
By the way, a lot of Belmont routes have a very slow first quarter. I don\'t think they\'re as indicative of the actual pace as you would think at first glance. It would require some more analysis on my part because I don\'t pay too much attention to the first 1/4 in routes. I look at the 1/2 and 3/4.
I thought Summerly ran about as well as expected. It was a pretty good effort considering even the trainer was saying she wouldn\'t be 100%. I was happy that Spun Sugar contested things and made life easier.
It\'s rare that I bet a 2-1 shot, but I made her a little better than Spun Sugar and I felt like I had to do something against Summerly at 6-5. It was a matter if it was just exactas or a win bet also.
My key was Seeking the Ante. Still can\'t believe she was that far off early, thought they learned the lesson in the last one. It could be she just can\'t class up to the others but thought she was the way to make the race pay. One day they\'ll get her out of the gate again and may see if that breeding will carry her late when the others are tiring.