The superfecta might pay better than it should.....................
Please...could you be more specific...thanx
Perfect Drift is probably one of my all-time money burners. I think I\'ve used him in some race every year he\'s run, beginning with his crappy Derby performance (one of the first highly touted \"lightly campaigned\" 3yos - talk about a money burning angle...), and I\'ve never cashed. I\'ll stay off him here and he\'ll probably win by...a nose if he\'s lucky. I bet him last time. Yeesh.
HP
Saint Liam over a box Badge of Silver/Presidentialaffair/Perfect drift.....HP....I bet him last time too.......and the Breeder\'s Cup and...and well, you get it !!!!
Stevens up last out, he\'s winning everything, especially on grass. My money\'s in - NINTH! I\'m kind of angry that this is the ROTW and I have to look at his sheet again. HP
You might want to limit that angle to races where there are fewer high quality lightly raced horses that can also move up and beat you. Especially when they are all gunning for tha race. You might also want to insist on more than 7-1 on a horse that is much slower than a few that are coming out of races of higher quality. Other than that, I think he ran quite well and did improve in the Derby.
I\'m a sucker for Perfect Drift also.
I played him in the Stephen Foster last year because I thought he was prepped in a manner that worked the year before. The track was a mess so I really don\'t know what to make of his performance. He came back with a few good ones after that though.
They are using the same preparation this year and I think he has actually looked a little better to this point than he did last year. The one problem I have with him is that at some point last year he started looking like a horse that did just enough to \"NOT WIN. I hate that.
The race should set up nicely for him. Even if there\'s no duel, it\'s hard to imagine that the pace won\'t be lively with Presidential Affair, Badge of Silver, St Liam and maybe even Eurosilver pressing the issue.
He\'s going to have to be on the top of his game to beat St Liam if that one comes back close to 100%. Normally, I love betting against horses like SL in Grade 1 races, but this one has run some huge ones off a layoff. His race against the Ghost last year off a layoff was monsterous. The Donn was also very good, but I think that may have been more a matter of RIM being short and prepping for the Dubai Cup than SL running so well.
Presidential Affair runs an occasional big race, but it\'s usually against very weak competition that can\'t get to him either early or late. He generally wilts against higher level horses.
IMO, Badge of Silver prefers a slightly shorter distance. He can win at 9F, but it isn\'t optimal. He was life and death against Dynever despite a very good trip and cut blazing fractions in his win in the New Orleans, but I think the track carried him home that day. In his last race he got some pressure from a speedy but cheaper horse and couldn\'t even hold off Pollard\'s Vision. I don\'t have a ton of confidence at 9F against this caliber with this much quality speed keeping it honest. I would need a bigger price than is likely.
let me join the bandwagon, albiet in a very light manner.
i have no real edge in this race. i have perfect drift as the slightest of overlays, but not enough to wager on at his morning line of 4/1. fun looking at his pps. he\'s the widest horse i\'ve ever seen. probably wide again tomorrow. 9/18 winners thru his 4yo season, 1/11 since with 5 seconds.
now, the phipps on the other hand....
what am I missing on the analysis for the ROTW? St Liam\'s verbage indicates he\'s a nobrainer, but the pattern suggests good chance of \"off\" or even more so an \"X\"...which puts him as a play against as many have pointed out...but why is PD being dismissed so easily - I don\'t get it. For me, it\'s PD/Prez/SL in htat order of preference...
How do you figure a bounce for Saint Liam ????? Looks to me he\'s due for a big race !!!!
a bounce could win, of course...but I see it as 85% that he runs a -1 or worse...for me, that\'s a bet against the win for STL.
shanahan,
Keep in mind the 28% for off and the 57% for \"x\" are based on his effective top, in this case a negative 6. Even with a regression he is more than likely to run another negative number in relation to his \"effective\" top. With his history of firing big off of layoffs and the % still being in his favor of running a negative, not so sure he is a bet against based on the thoro-pattern alone. However, throw in the low odds and likely pace scenario you may very well be showing good judgement in taking that approach.
Perfect Drift has the figures to be right there and has run well at CD. He may be the one today. Good luck.
Don\'t see it Shanahan. The horse has run his best races fresh. I hate chalk, but I can\'t see this horse losing. Badge of Silver is definitely slower than his reputation, his good race being in the negative 1 range. Perfect Drift hasn\'t run a race that would win this since the 2003 version of this exact race. What odds are acceptable on a horse that hasn\'t run well enough to win in 2 years? 4-1 is not even close enough.
Not a good betting race at all and very surprising to see it as the ROTW as there are a lot of interesting races this week. Look at the conclusion that JB or Allan came to, the top 4 weights are the best with Saint Liam looking the best. Saint Liam 6-5, unbettable. Badge of Silver maybe 9-5, an underlay. Perfect Drift 4-1, unbettable. Presidential Affair, maybe 5-1, and unlikely. Single SL in the NTRA pick 4 and look for value elsewhere.
Spa, don\'t mean to be sarcastic, but your post is an example of what has changed with this board in the past 6 months (for the worse). What logic or what in the world would lead you to conclude that Saint Liam over the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices, would be an overlay in the Superfecta? Or are you just posting for the sake of posting?
P.Drift will take alot of money in this race. Might see SL go off at 6-5 and PD 2-1/5-2, B.O.Silver might go up to 3-1 or so. This is a race where I\'ll either will pass or bet a little something on Eurosilver might get around 15-1 on him.
Gouldings Green under a box of P/Drift,Badge,Liam,
Put a little on him in 3rd hole
Liam on top...w/Drift...Badge.w/Goulding..w/all
Goulding under w/all for a deuce!
Strictly a money play!!
PARTYpokerON!
Call me crazy, my wife does, but Colonial Colony could be a party crasher. If not for the win, at least on the exotic tickets. A pattern that suggests a forward move is coming, a break in the weights, a lively pace to run at, he\'s ran well at CD, real nice odds and he\'s gone negative before when he jumps up. What\'s not to like?
May be a stretch to expect him to defeat SL, who is the most likely winner, but CC has a shot today to break up a chalk exacta and tri. I will have him on my tickets and after all this hyperbole a small win wager.
yesterday, i thought pd might go off about 4-5/1. right now i think he may go off around 2/1-5/2. he would be a toss for me at those odds.
Saint Elmo\'s Fire - With a (3) 2-1-0 record at Churchill it may be questionable to speculate he isn\'t ideal over the track, but he did grind to win the Clark and the Clark number though good certainly doesnt tower over this field. The weight shift between Saint and Dread is enough to alter the Clark outcome. However, there is the negative 4 and 6 to worry about, (They both are \"bore out\" numbers), but this is a different track that many times isn\'t going to yield an outrageous figure. If St.Elmo runs a negative 1 or negative 1 and change does that make him the winner? Underneath exotics use.
Contrary to Saint Elmo\'s Fire is the Churchill record on Perfect Dread, its (6) 1-2-3 Some may look at that and say \"He doesn\'t really care for the strip\". Tend to think the reverse is true. That his best numbers are run here. If he can return to best or near best, he has a shot to win. Atop lightly and in exotics.
Presidential Affair is the fastest of the fast here. Badge of Silver will have to run at thim. Running hard early didn\'t work out real well for Badge in the last one. Some think Presidential\'s the same horse slop or dry. I\'m not of that opinion and tend to think he wants a dry track. That was a heckuva race last on a surface that sapped early speed. His best here probably wins, but his yearly campaigns have fizzled after his best efforts and he started this campaign with a zinger. How to interpret that? I\'ll do so on odds and probably make this horse a win and exotics play.
I\'m looking at multiple sources on M.B.Sea. I\'m stunned TGraph has him running only a 2.1 that last race. Theres the Off Poorly notation, but this horse always breaks like a donkey. His best TFig is a negative 0.2 Even that may not be enough but I\'m looking for his best race today and will use him in exotics.
Badge of Silver is the cheater doubled. He can\'t be ignored and is a good horse. His best is a negative 2. That could certainly win, but that negative 2 was a front end effort and he may press a bit from off the pace. I\'m looking for a negative 1 or thereabouts first time on the track and from behind. That could win, it may not. Underneath exotics use.
Hmmmn, I thouht CD might be tilted a little speed. Then Don\'t Get Mad ran as expected. Now the 9th looked like speed again. Either this is an honest racetrack or DGM ran a really nice race today. Tough to play the Stephen Foster without knowing what the heck is going on - not with the probable pace and distance issues being so important.
Tend to agree with you Class that speed is not bad. Think Don\'t Get Mad was just the best of his bunch and overcame a bit, but he undoubtedly loves the strip.
the track is quick, as it is on all big days at CD.... the favs look tough here. i think the crowd has it correct. i will use MB sea underneath. some decent #\'s back there. day should save ground all the way around. gets in light.
I\'m with you Chuckles.
I was considering a wager on Perfect Drift, but I don\'t want 3-1/7-2... and that goes double on this track. This could help a horse like BOS if SL is not 100%. I guess it also helps the Pres. but I don\'t have faith in that horse against this caliber.
That was very impressive. :)
We need Roses in May and Rock Hard Ten to get it together. We might still be able to salvage the season even without the Ghost.
Decent race by Eurosilver too. He\'s still moving forward.
HUGE late money there on the frankel horses. PD from 2-1 to 7-2, MBS from 23-1 to 39-1 in the last few minutes. i didn\'t like eurosolver at all. he loved the rock hard surface though.... can anybody explain why the CD crew makes the track so damn quick on these days??
Not sure, you could see it developing though. Kinda mitigates against the notion tracks are getting slower. That final raw time was obviously on a very fast surface.
Wasn\'t gonna win with the Frankels atop and didn\'t factor Eurosilver either.
I didn\'t like Euro either, but he\'s obviously getting better based on this performance.
any thoughts out there on how graded stakes super-testing has affected pletcher and frankel? limehouse, ashado, GZ, LH - these horses are running their eyeballs out.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> any thoughts out there on how graded stakes
> super-testing has affected pletcher and frankel?
> limehouse, ashado, GZ, LH - these horses are
> running their eyeballs out.
Don\'t think Supertesting has impacted the supers at all and don\'t factor drugs off. I\'d like to hear the sites view on that.
Its gonna be a very interesting figure. If TGraph wants to give Saint Liam his accustomed Negative four its gonna get very quizzical on M.B.Sea who ran the bang up race I hoped for. Just didn\'t anticpate Eurosilver\'s improve, which would also have to be a career top. Gonna be interesting where they go with this.
IMO, there\'s been a few strange duds (like Sis City), but most of the failures I am familiar with were explainable. You\'d expect to get a few duds here or there anyway. However, there\'s at least a couple of lower level trainers at Belmont that normally move horses up that aren\'t doing very well these days.
my ticket was SL and PD over MBS, eurosilver killed me...... the race has to come up fast, i think it was one of the fastest 9f ever run there.
tough beat Michael
I\'m gonna get beat bucking frankel, but when I catch him it usually makes up for the misses. Bet small, win big. The key to this race was obviously Eurosilver he exceeded his 1, I just can\'t imagine TGraph giving him a negative 4 also, but who knows.
yes, it\'s the recognition of \"fastest time ever\"...at (name your track)...