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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jimbo66 on June 07, 2005, 03:08:35 PM

Title: Belmont Odds
Post by: jimbo66 on June 07, 2005, 03:08:35 PM
To help any bettors out there with their analysis, here are the odds offered today at a very reputable offshore sportsbook.  

Afleet Alex  4-5
Giacomo      7-2
Reverberate  7-1
Souther Africa 20-1
Andromedas Hero 23-1
Chekhov 35-1
AP Arrow 50-1
Pinpoint 55-1
Indy Storm 70-1
Nolan\'s Cat 100-1
Watchmon 100-1

The prices are all \"must start\", so you get a refund if they scratch.  If you do the math, a little more than the track\'s takeout, but not much.  Sometimes the offshore action can give you an indication of what the betting will be like on Saturday, but obviously, it isn\'t a science.

Kind of fits with what people have been saying here, that AA is about even money.  

I think Giacomo is an underlay at 7-2 and unfortunately so is Reverberate at 7-1, even though I do like him.  

4 more days!

Title: Re: Belmont Odds
Post by: Saddlecloth on June 07, 2005, 03:13:04 PM
7/1 on the second best figure horse in the race, a horse who has shown constant improvement in every race since he added blinkers, a horse who has won and run well at belmont.  I think that is very fair.
Title: Re: Belmont Odds
Post by: jimbo66 on June 07, 2005, 03:25:14 PM
Saddlecloth,

I haven\'t see the T-Graph figures for the Peter Pan, are you assuming he is the second fastest figure horse or do you know that?  

Jerry,

When will the T-Graphs be up for the Belmont?

Title: Re: Belmont Odds
Post by: big18741 on June 07, 2005, 03:25:35 PM
At those prices Southern Africa would be a play for me.No name connections will have him go off in that range or better on Saturday.I know he ran a new top at Lone Star,but no clue how big.Same for Reverberate in the Peter Pan,but the difference is Southern Africa gets two extra weeks to prepare and he\'s going to be double or triple the price,and I think SA\'s sheet might look a little better in terms of pattern.Find out tomorrow night.
Title: Re: Belmont Odds
Post by: richiebee on June 07, 2005, 03:30:11 PM
At those odds, I\'ll go to \"Africa\", who a lot of TG \"experts\" liked before his last win. He will go off at twice the odds he should because Jon Court, not a prominent jock, is riding.

Any one know if Chekhov gets Lasix? I can only hope that AA is as bad a favorite in the Belmont as Chekhov  was in the Peter Pan.
Title: Re: Belmont Odds
Post by: Saddlecloth on June 08, 2005, 07:12:56 AM
Saddlecloth Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 7/1 on the second best figure horse in the race, a
> horse who has shown constant improvement in every
> race since he added blinkers, a horse who has won
> and run well at belmont.  I think that is very
> fair.

Jim,

I have not, its an assumption based on other figures I have seen, sorry.

Title: Re: Belmont Odds
Post by: Saddlecloth on June 08, 2005, 07:13:52 AM
I bet reverberate at 7.5/1 last night, I think he goes off lower at the track, there just are not many options for the public.
Title: Re: Belmont Odds
Post by: MO on June 08, 2005, 06:53:43 PM
I think AA is toast. If he is, it might be worth a wager to wheel the rest of the field (excluding the 2nd and 3rd picks) to win at $20 a pop.