I think there is tons of value in these thoro patterns, but messing around a bit with them its clear you have to evaluate each case pretty closely.
For example, yesterdays stake at churchill downs. The two best horses were Shocanage and Delta Princess. Both had run pretty consistenly around 4-5, but both horses had some odd ball top of around 0. So their thoro patterns where x-x-x and off-off-off and the chances of even repeating a pair or new top were 6% and 26%, but if you throw out the suspicous figure they have healthy patters.
I guess the question is do the experts make that same reasoning that I did or do you look to play against?
This is new stuff for us all, and the more discussion there is not just about whether to disregard but about HOW to adjust when making distinctions, the better.
I have some questions /observations regarding the use of Thoro- patterns. I realize these patterns are relatively new and that there may not be answers to my questions yet.
Question 1-- Size of sample. Let me reproduce 3 Thoro Patterns from the CD card on Derby day:
Deer Lake ST TOP PAIR OFF X
OFF/ X/ PAIR 684 8 29 30 32
Elijah\'s Song
TOP/ OFF/OFF 280 9 24 36 31
GP Fleet
OFF/ X/ OFF 99 2 21 43 33
Is anybody keeping track of how accurate these patterns are? Should we pay less attention to the TP in GP Fleet\'s case because of the relatively small size of the sample? Should we be twice as influenced with the information in Deer Lake\'s pattern in relation to Elijah\'s Song based on the size of the sample?
How many patterns currently exist in the TG database? What percent of these patterns yield more than a 15% chance of the animal reaching a new top? I randomly chose a card at CD, and counted 100 or so entrants with Thoro Patterns (no Euros, no 2YOs); of these 100, 70 or so exhibited patterns which gave them less than a 10% chance of running a new top.
Disregarding T- Patterns for a moment, statistically, what percentage of all runners post new tops on a given race day? When we analyze a race, and say that an animal needs to post a new top to have a chance of winning, we are asking quite a bit, aren\'t we?
Refer back to GP Fleet\'s TP, which predicts a 2% chance of GP running a new top; if you look at trainer Steve Flint\'s TG figure based trainer profile, of his 264 Overall starters, 16% ran a new top. What\'s a handicapper to do?
My pet peeve with regard to the TG patterns is what I call the \"wash\" pattern. Here is a pattern from a Derby entrant:
Buzzard\'s Bay ST Top Pair Off X
Pair/ Top/ Pair 185 20 34 25 22
(Bellamy Road had a similar pattern with a much smaller number of starters). The pattern for Buzzard\'s Bay tells you there is pattern wise an equal chance that BB would run a lifetime best race or one of the worst races of his life. At this point the patttern is creating chaos and it might be good to look at the trainer TG profile.
I guess more important than the T- Pattern or the trainer profile is each individual animal\'s pattern-- what type of efforts precede the animal\'s winning efforts. As i have mentioned before, TG is a very thorough (no pun intended) tool in that it goes back throughout the animal\'s entire career; I believe that TG could be even more helpful if the animal\'s winning efforts were somehow identified.
richi,
I look at it more to see if its likely a horse is going to run a worse race, if the stats are even like in buzzards bay\'s case I think thats a posititive if there are other things you like about the horse.
In the case of Bellamy Road I am not sure the thoro pattern was even in play as there was a long layoff involved.
richie,
As to the percentage of horses that run new tops, TGAB mentioned that they don\'t run new tops very often. That leads me to believe the % is low. I don\'t know if there is a study that TG may have that would narrow down the % or not. I\'m sure he based his comment on some type of records or history. You asked a good question, perhaps someone at TG will address it.
Sorry for the delay in responding. We had a scary moment here this morning and afternoon. Our internet service provider went down--no connectivity. We were in midst of figuring out a plan B when voila we resurfaced. Whew!!
Q1--Number of patterns?
There are 4 alternatives--top, pair, off, X--all of which are possible. So that\'s 4 to the 4th or 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 = 256, and then 2 surfaces, so 256 x 2 = 512, and then there are age groupings 2, 3, 4 and 5 and up, so 512 x 4 = 2048, and then we vary by time of year, a new sequence beginning every month, so 2048 x 12 = 24576. Now there won\'t be monthly groupings early in the year for the 2yos, so the 24576 patterns is give or take or few.
Q2--What % of these patterns yield more than a 15% chance of a horse running a new top?
Q2A--What % of all runners post new tops on a given race day.
I think Q2 and Q2A are related. Don\'t know the answer to either, do not have hard numbers and certainly Q2A would vary day-by-day, card-by-card. What I will say is that the younger the horses are, the more likely they are to run new tops. So my bet is 2yos show the most positive Thoro-Pattern probabilities, followed by 3yos, etc., and within that earlier in the year is better than later in the year. Common sense when you think about it. More lightly raced horses are more apt to run new tops.
Q3,4--In regards to the three Thoro-Patterns you provide, you ask two questions: \"Should we pay less attention to the TP in GP Fleet\'s case because of the relatively small sample size? Should we be twice as influenced with the information on Deer Lake\'s pattern in relation to Elijah\'s Song based on the size of the sample?
Briefly the patterns cited are:
Deer Lake--Dirt 5yo & up Apr-Jun Prev Top -1
Off-X-Pair (2-1/2, 6-3/4, -0-1/2): 684--8-29-30-32 (starts-tops-pairs-off-x)
Elijah\'s Song--Dirt 4yo Apr-Jun Prev Top 15-1/4
Top-Off-Off (3, 4-1/2, 6-1/2): 280--9-24-36-31
GP Fleet--Turf 5yo & up Apr-Jun prev Top 0-3/4
Off-X-Off (3-1/2, 5-1/2, 2-1/2): 99-2-21-43-33
These three Thoro-Patterns come from sheets posted with figures for 5/7/5, not as they appeared on 5/7/5. For the questions raised the date difference is not relevant.
The answer to both questions is no. I need some help from the statisticians out there. The sample size in both cases is large enough to be significant. We\'re talking confidence intervals here and surely the larger samples have higher DEGREES of confidence, but 99 is a large enough size to be valid. In distributions, which the Thoro-Patterns relect, there are statistical techniques to determine degrees of confidence--that is how well the data reflect what\'s being measured. And it\'s not a direct realtionship. In others words \"twice as influenced\" while intuitively sensible does not hold here.
Q5--\"Refer back to GP Fleet\'s TP, which predicts a 2% chance of GP running a new top; if you look at trainer Steve Flint\'s TG figure based trainer profile, of his 264 Overall starters, 16% ran a new top. What\'s a handicapper to do?\"
Look at what his 5yo & ups do. That\'s most relevant group--54-7-19-48-26--and it\'s close to what the Thoro-Pattern shows. The overall includes the younger horses which are much more apt to run new tops.
The Thoro-Patterns for Buzzards Bay and Bellamy Road as posted with Derby day figures are:
Buzzards Bay--Dirt 3yo Apr-Jun Prev Top 5-3/4
Pair-Top-Pair (4-3/4, 3-1/4): 185--20-34-25-22
Bellamy Road:--Dirt 3yo Apr-Jun Prev Top 5-1/2
Top-Top-X (-0-1/4, -5, 4): 78--3-19-29-49
You cite BB\'s pattern as a peeve of yours because it\'s a \"wash\" pattern and you go on to state that \"Bellamy Road had a similar pattern with a much smaller number of of starters.\" I disagree on both counts. BB\'s pattern is strong, 54/46 positive to negative and BR\'s is deteriorating, 22/78. But Bellamy Road is much, much faster and that\'s something the handicapper has to take into account.
I agree the individual patterns reign over the trainer profile and Thoro-Pattern in terms of analyzing a horse\'s prospective chances. But both the Thoro-Pattern and the trainer profiles provide information which may be relevant in specific instances. The trainer profiles point to trainer tendencies and the Thoro-Pattern provides a general overall snapshot of the horse\'s pattern. But both sets of measures have to examined closely to see if they\'re relevant to the particular horse and race in question.
I sense a general undercurrent, perhaps unconsciously, of I guess, disbelief--disbelief that horses don\'t run tops often. I mentioned this observation in the ROTW string and it\'s true. Only real good, healthy horses are able to replicate good, improving form over a period of time and even then at some point they hit a set-back level. Trainers are considered good if they win at a 20% threshold, and 15% or so isn\'t bad. Baseball hitters are good if they hit .300 and .275 isn\'t bad. You have to look at Thoro-Patterns in the same light, which is difficult and may take some reconditioning. But this game\'s only easy when Official lights up and you\'re holding the winning ticket.
Hope this helps.
TGAB:
Thank you for your detailed response.
3 Pairs, please...
Have been looking at the TG Patterns lately and questions/ observations keep arising. There is no disbelief on my part, just curiosity.
Looking at the TG Pattern of a Belmont Stakes entrant, Andromeda\'s Hero, I noticed that his TG Pattern predicts there is a 29% chance that he can post a new top:
376-- 29 37 17 16.
After looking at hundreds (not thousands) of patterns, I have noticed that most of them (not real scientific here) yield the grim prediction that there is less than a 10% chance that the animal will post a new top; AH\'s TG Pattern appeared at first glance to be rather strong. Add to the fact that the \"back end\"-- Off and the dreaded \"X\"-- combined to total only 33% (17% + 16%), this looked like one of the more potent patterns I had encountered in my meanderings.
Quite arbitrarily, I decided to look through the TGs I had on hand (the Ky Derby day recap, 3 days at AQ (3/30, 4/6, 4/13) and all the redboard room I could get before being shut down by the quota. I decided to look for patterns, and I knew there wouldn\'t be many, that fit the following profile: 20% or more chance of new top, less than 45% on the back end (\"Off\" + \"X\").
Here\'s what I found:
Early Double 3/30 AQ Dirt 3YO Feb/ April 171 32 35 23 10 Pair/Pair/Pair
Strategy 3/30 AQ Dirt 4YO Feb/ April 630 24 37 23 17 Pair/Pair/Pair
Runaway Eleanor \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \"
Roxanne\'s Dancer 4/6 AQ Dirt 3YO Mar/May 237 31 36 20 12 Pair/Pair/Pair
Sightseek \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \" \"
Exist 4/13 AQ Dirt 4YO Mar/May 701 23 37 24 15 Pair/Pair/Pair
Krisbequick
Runaway Eleanor
Guy Getaway
Sydsational 4/13 AQ Dirt 3YO Mar/May 129 27 36 19 18 Pair/Off/Pair
Indy Storm 5/7 CD Dirt 3YO Apr/June 294 32 34 19 16 Pair/Pair/Pair
Mighty Military 5/7 CD Turf 4YO Mar/Jul 199 20 51 22 8 Pair/ Pair/Pair
A to the Z 5/7 CD Turf 5up Mar/Jul 312 19 47 27 6 Pair/Pair/Pair
Mystcal Time 6/7 CRC Dirt 4YO May/ Jul 740 21 39 26 16 Pair/Pair/Pair
I got sloppy at the end. A to the Z actually missed the parameters by 1%, but he was a Pair/Pair/Pair. Like I said, not scientific, but I may look at these Pair/ Pair/Pair patterns more closely.
Gotta go now. Russell Crowe wants me to go out to the garage to see Ed Harris and his daughter.
The pattern studies have pointed me into additional winners and have helped out on the money mngmnt side as well . There certainly are some no- brainers and some tough calls to be made when using the TG TP data , however I don\'t see any down side to good solid informaton at your disposal . The one thing I feel is significant to consider when accessing Thoro Patterns is the whether a horse\'s overall pattern is getting better or worse, and, has the trainer put up those TP stats with horse\'s that had similar or even exact overall type patterns and numbers that were quite as remarkable ( or dull ) as a given perspective runner .
I think andromedas hero could run a new top, but that does not make him the winner, he needs a new top of about 5 points, not probable and his in the 3rd choice in the betting right now.
Saddlecloth,
I agree with what you say. Look for him to run well, I think he is one of a few that will actually get the 1 1/2 miles. Also thought he would be much longer odds.