I like Santa Candida a little. I\'d play her to win and under Star Parade and Hollywood Story.
Good luck.
HP
I dont like Star Parade nearly as much as tgraph did. I dont think she is the same filly that she has been and she will be around 5/2. In fact there is not much in here to add value unless you like the south american horse to improve, and that is a bit risky given the connections.
I\'ll use ALPHABET KISSES on top and hope for value to fill in the 2 hole. (Perhaps HOUSE OF FORTUNE will do better now that she\'s back at Hollywood.)
I agree that STAR PARADE is not the same filly and I\'ll toss. SANTA CANDIDA adds value and is not impossible with so many holes in here.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The one problem I see with Star Parade is that she does her best running on the lead and generally has a tough time of it in the stretch when she doesn\'t get it. She won\'t have the lead with Alphabet Kisses in the race and if she tries to get it, it\'s likely to be costly late.
Post Edited (06-03-05 19:15)
House of fotune running 3rd race w/out gap...last o.p....last was 100k tuneup for this spot...take over star p.,h. story,santa c.,and of course closing argument.
Watch out for them trolley cars, class!!
PARTYpokerON!
tough race. i would usually go with alphabet kisses in here, but her and star parade appear to be need the lead horses. i\'ll look toward the two outside horses and use andujar just because she has longer odds. her only dirt was a competitive number.
House of Fortune had quite an eventful trip last time out. She broke slowly was rushed up 3W into a moderately fast pace, was 3w the second turn and didn\'t weaken all that badly. Much better effort than it looks on paper. Could also sit a nice trip.
Post Edited (06-03-05 18:32)
I really like Star Parade!!!!!!Holllywood Story for 2nd and will box 4 horses when they can be sorted out. Santa Candida will be one.
star parade - battled through :46 and 1:09 fractions while winning this race last year. excuses last two. nice post, decent weight, and fast #\'s at the distance.
santa candida - don\'t know
siphon honey - too slow at the distance.
house of fortune - last time solis was up she ran a \"1\" while winning a grade 2 (at this track, at this distance). the first start of the year was weak, but last was better. expecting a decent run. use in second and third spots.
alphabet kisses - too slow at the distance.
festival - no
andujar - first time o\'neill. from the real quiet family. pulled valdivia around the track last, and finished very well. potential here, but speculative as she needs to jump about three points.
hollywood story - bad draw and espinoza is no fan of saving ground. expecting a run in the \"2\" range, which might not be enough if she loses some ground.
i will have SP on top. HOF will be used underneath, as will HS but a bit less. my only saver on top is with andujar, as the odds will be decent and she might have some potential.
As the intro to the ROTW analysis alluded to,weight and ground loss are key elements in
T-Graph\'s numbers. When both clearly support
one entrant over another,along with the fastest number, it gives a competitive advantage to the horse in receipt of said elements. Is that not what we are looking for in trying to determine the most logical winner? There are other factors to be considered, of course, but I would think it is to our benefit if a horse has the key ingredients in their favor.
Star Parade may not win, but sure appears to have the T-Graph tangibles that would suggest she has a distinct advantage over the others.
Just my own personal rant.
You know we put up a race of the week every week where either Jerry or I discuss form cycles, patterns reads, the value or non-value of the Thoro-Pattern--when to use it, when not to use it, how to use the TGI, dam stats, and or trainer tendencies as shown in the profiles for the given horses shown. Of course, the contenders dictate what topics get discussed but over time all the subjects mentioned above have been touched on.
Also there are lots of times we discuss various patterns or TG data to inform because a particular horse(s) provides an opportunity to do so and while the relevant points may not be immediately beneficial, the particular horse may be too slow relatively to be a serious contender, the points and topics evoked may have relevance another day.
Someone earlier in the week mentioned that a lot of non-performance figure talk dominates this board and they\'re almost afraid to steer the conversation to pattern, performance data related topics. This is the perfect time since all the data are up there, gratis.
JW--I agree thoroughly. Aside from SP\'s non-effort earlier in the year, she really has 1
figure since 2004 which at the weights and post make her a non-winner. So 7 of her 9 efforts in the last 18 months gives her a good shot at winning here. Pretty strong and she\'s not the favorite.
Slight change of flight plans.
House of Fortune over Star Parade....Hollywood Story...Alphabet Kisses.
Kicking Santa Candida out of bed {bad trainer patterns...1st lasix,2nd lay,s/r,stk record,etc.} replacing w/Alphabet Kisses. At hollywood is roi positive,s/r good, j/t good,but mainly he shows up positive w/2nd lay at this track.
And of course Closing Argument will once again be included!
Keep an eye out for wooden nichels Uncle Buck!
ct{m}c easy on the face paint...wouldn\'t want you turning into Stephen Kings\' favorite clown.
Like a hollywood story..may alphabet kisses reign at your star parade all while nestled in your house of fortune.
PARTYpokerON!
Alan,
Whenever you or Jerry and anyone else at TG give us a discussion about figure making, the
one constant talked about is weight and ground loss. It\'s always mentioned somewhere
and usually in the lead paragraph.From what little I know about it they are part of the \"basic\" premise of making figures and using those figures to pick a winner.
When I read your rotw comments the light bulb came on. So this is what they have been trying to get through our thick skulls all these years! The Milady appears to be the prime example for \"SEEING how weight and ground loss\" can affect the outcome of a \"particular\" race. To me the effect stands out like the proverbial @#!* in a punchbowl!
Just wanted to point this out and maybe others will see it also. The significance of these 2 factors has to be taken seriously in this race. To me, with the fact you mentioned about not even being the favorite, that\'s just another asset for SP. In this particular race her assets far out weigh her liabilities.
SP is the Thoro-Graph play if you believe in the methodology, even if she doesn\'t win.
Looking forward to the race.
A couple of more reason I dont like Star Parade, a filly who really wants to be on the lead to do her best she has not been able to make it there since July of last year against Pesci and Quero Quero. I have always thought that losing a touch of speed is a sign of declining ability in older horses.
The thoro pattern is 76% to run an off race, now maybe an off of 3 would get it done, but at 3/1 or so no thanks.
I also dont like valdivia, he will not have her on the pace given his propensity to ride everything like its a turf race.
Saddlecloth, you have to be careful. Indeed the Thoro-Pattern says the off race chances are 36% and an X race 40%, which sums to 76% as you state. But those percentages are based on the top of 1-1/4. An off race in this context is anywhere from 2-1/2 to 4. Star Parade\'s last 2 are 3 and 3-1/4, off races, yes, both also efforts good enough to win here given the post and weight. Moreover I would point out the each 3 she\'s run has either been followed by another 3 or better. So where the line rubs you pessimistically, I opt for a half-full view.
The ROTW is almost always a stakes race and as such we look at top efforts horses run and project whether they\'ll repeat, improve or regress, the emphasis being on tops. But one thing to remember and I must say I\'m guilty of forgetting quite often, is that horses ususally don\'t run tops or new tops. Of course young horses are capable of jumping up at any time and we expect them too since they are developing. And we expect top efforts out of stakes horses because they\'re quality equines able to hold their form and run at the highest echelons of performance. That\'s what makes them stakes animals. But even the stakes performers eventually reach a peak off which they regress and then cycling behavior starts.
Look at the horses in this race. Excluding Santa Candida, who lacks US race experience, only one of the other seven comes in off a new top, Andujar. Now Hollywood Story and Alphabet Kisses got back to their tops last time, but the former has the conditions against her and and has had opportunities to break through many times before. The latter may break through but concedes weight to Star Parade, isn\'t as fast, and has a better chance according to Thoro-Pattern or pairing or running worse. She does have youth on her side, but 7-2?
Sorry, Star Parade is much more solid and has a better chance at 3-1 of running her race and winning than the other 2.
Saddlecloth,
Couldn\'t agree more, you wrote what I was just planning to write.
Besides the obvious, like declining figures, one of the bigger signs of a horse being off form or declining is when the horse usually shows great natural speed and has suddenly lost it. This describes Star Parade. She looks like a filly off form to me. When she was right, she was on the lead immediately after the gates opened.
Even if she gets out of the gate today, she will be pressed hard by Alphabet Kisses, who ran a 43 and change half last time out.
Unfortunately, with a swift pace likely and Star Parade looking a little off, it looks like a race to skip, unless you can find a reason to believe that House of Fortune will run one of her good ones. If the pace is quick and they string out early, I don\'t think Hollywood Story is in for as much ground loss as Allan/Jerry suggest in the ROTW.
Although I agree with J-Dub, that if you are betting T-Graph methodology, you have to like Star Parade. I just think there are other factors here to consider.
Speaking of T-Graph methodology, looking at the figures for the Belmont next week, Giacomo looks like a possible pattern play off of paired up \"0\"\'s. Although, I couldn\'t play him with a wooden nickel, as I am having trouble accepting either figure.
Jimbo,
\"unless you can find a reason to believe that House of Fortune will run one of her good ones.\"
Watch the replay of her last race.
She ran a very good one last time out. It\'s just not apparent in her speed figures. She got left at the start and rushed up hard and wide into a slightly faster than average pace. That was a really tough pace trip. Yet she held well.
jim,
thats the way I saw it, certainly given the field 3/1 fits on star parade but I just would like to go somewhere else but there is no where for me. I will root for Andujar as a friend of mine is a part owner.
I kind of like the fact that SP can run an off race and still have a good chance to win.
It\'s not as much that SP has such an advantage going in but she doesn\'t have to do
anything out of the ordinary to win. The others have to do something very extraordinary to get the win.
They have to run much faster than they usually do. That\'s a big obstacle to overcome.
Jimbo, if you\'ve got the winner and the second horse.....and go 4 deep in the superfecta ....isn\'t that a great betting opp ??????? My thinking is Star Parade/Hollywood Story and box Santa Candida/House of Fortune/Alphabet Kisses/Andujar.........
Spa,
We all have different definitions of a great betting opportunity. Taking the first two favorites in the top two slots of the super, with 4 other horses in the next two slots, including the 3rd, 4th and 5th choices, is not the type of bet I would make, especially in an 8 horse field. But good luck anyway.
I watched the replay that Class suggested and it does give a possible reason for House of Fortune to run better today. Since the horse has sucked me in before many times, including the Oaks last year, I will probably use her again. Maybe with Star Parade in a box. Plus a win bet on HofF.
Jimbo,
I hope I didn\'t screw you up, but I do think her last race wasn\'t bad. :-)
awesome..... she\'s from the family of real quiet, top and bottom. she might jump right to the top of the older female division (considering madcap escapade, ashado, and society selection are on top right now)....
hey mikemd - you must have this one pretty good?
Post Edited (06-04-05 20:26)
We just had a long thread about year to year development... Four year olds that have come nowhere near their 3yo tops are really bad bets (HoFortune).
No amount of trouble can explain why a horse can run one tops as a three year old and can\'t break a five as a 4yo. They are supposed to be getting better, and you shouldn\'t give them too many excuses. Three four year old races is enough to see what\'s going on. As the analysis said, \"there is clearly something wrong.\"
The Thoro-pattern analysis is also dead on.
HP
Jimbo,
Pretty dreadful performance by House of Fortune.
I\'m a little surprised that she didn\'t run better. This was her 3rd race without a training interruption. She was working well between races and her last was race better than the previous one (off a freshening).
I still think her last was better than it looks. Oh well.
The winner was impressive.
HP,
I agree that there was clearly something wrong with HOF in the Oct/Jan races. No doubt about that.
The April comeback was also mediocre, but her last was much better than any speed figure alone could possibly capture. You would have to watch the race and be very familiar with what that kind of trip takes away from a horse\'s ability to reproduce its top figure. It is an extremely rough trip to break slowly and rush up 3W into a slightly faster than average pace. She ran very well last time out even though it doesn\'t look like it from the speed figure.
Given this was her 3rd off a freshening and she was working very well since the last, I don\'t think it was any lock that this 4YO filly couldn\'t recover her best form here. IMO, she had practically done it last time out.
Of course in hindsight she was so darn dreadful yesterday that something is obviously still wrong.
It was a gamble that she wouldn\'t go backwards again, but the IMHO the key was in at least recognizing that she ran very well last time.
HP,
Yes, NOW it is easier to talk about H of F.
Thoro-pattern was not DEAD ON in this race.
Star Parade ran a very bad 3rd. If that is what you call being dead-on, you have low standards for performance. (unless you were specifically referring to H of F only, and not the race)
Andjuar was a throwout on T-Graph and won like a champ. Not dead-on.
Impressive indeed!
Looked like a horse that has finally figured out what running is all about. A very solid effort which could be a sign that theres better things to come for her. Star Parade was no match and just doesn\'t have anything in the tank for the stretch, as a few of you guys suggested--- good call. When you can\'t take advantage of your weight and position, I guess you just may not be good enough. Is it her running style, too one paced, or competition that makes it tough on her?
Anyway, thanks to AB & JB for providing the ROTW analysis and their insights every week. I find it interesting and informative and as TGAB said, it\'s gratis!
hp,
in hindsight, HOF\'s last should have been a warning. the trip wasn\'t that bad, and the \"5\" was too slow. still, i don\'t think that was such a bad stab at 7-1. she got a bad trip yesterday, steadied around the first turn, then in tight around the second. they made AK 7-2, and she was simply too slow. she had a tough trip too, but two previous runs in the \"6\" range at the distance with perfect trips. how in the world was she going to win this race? the favorite was also too short. espinoza got a nice trip from the eight hole - the only reason why she got second (cost me some money). the only good play in that race was taking a strong stand on a horse that needed to jump three points. not an easy one.
Class,
I bet her this time...is there some exotic gimmick that I could have won some cash because she ran well last time out?
Bet her on back class hoping she would improve to a # couple points off proven top...she quit like a pig when it counted most,so your consolation knowing she ran a dependable last race is more a flaw in the way we saw the race...not some hope for the future.
Many pattern sheet players saw this filly as a sucker bet.Unfortuneatly we fell for what could have been.
PARTYpokerON!
Jimbo,
I started this thread and posted my pick. Did not mention HoF. Threw her out. This is not past posting.
The Thoro-Pattern for HoFortune is right on. She had almost no chance to run a new top or pair.
Sorry you lost, but don\'t take it out on me.
Class & Michael D,
Look, the horse ran a 1 in June 2004. Her previous top was a zero.
That one in June 2004 killed her. Two months later she ran a 3. Two months after she ran a 6. Three and half months later she ran a 12. Since then she\'s paired 5\'s. It\'s a total \"cripple\" line. She\'s come NOWHERE near her top in a YEAR. That\'s not what healthy horses do.
I would have to agree with Michael; I have made worse \"stabs\" at 7-1. Still in this field I threw her out at first glance, given the total picture TG gives of her past year.
Class,
Her last was BAD relative to her best efforts. You can watch replays till your eyes fall out of your head, she ran a FIVE. That\'s BAD for a top 4yo relative to a ONE as a 3yo (remember that long thread about year to year improvement -- as in this horse has NONE).
I give the TG number the most weight. You don\'t. That\'s basically what this boils down to.
HP
Well kinda went like I thought, that an outsider would win, the top two fillies, one past thier prime, the other with a weight, post and style disadvantage.
I cant believe that filly was 7/1, I think even TGAB was thinking she would be much lower and 7/1 was perfectly playable in that field. Star Parade has no gas in the tank, will keep betting against her.
I am happy for the owners as they are friends of mine, and they had a purchase in february that broke down so this was a bit of a consolation.
J-DUB
>Is it her (star Parade) running style, too one paced, or competition that makes it tough on her?<
If you view horses as being able to run an \"X\" speed figure regardless of it\'s position etc... IMO, you will never appreciate certain things.
IMHO, the numbers horses earn are primarily the result of ability. However, they are also the result of running style, pace, the competitive nature of the race, position, stamina, race development etc...
IMHO, in marginal situations, when you find a horse that typically only wins when it gets the lead, you have to discount its chances a bit when you know it won\'t get the lead because they tend not to win even if it looks like they have a slight edge in the figures.
Post Edited (06-05-05 12:11)
Fair enough HP. I thought you were referring to the entire race when you said \"T-Graph got it right\". They were certainly right about H of F and it was a bad bet by me. My original post was the proper move for me, which was to skip the race. I didn\'t like Hollywood Story but thought Star Parade was off form. I couldn\'t find the right alternative.
The race that kills me yesterday was the Acorn. Anybody catch that? Round Pound had a nice pattern as I posted in that thread and I thought she was a use, but I keyed In the Gold, with Round Pound and Smuggler. In the Gold rallies by the entire field and takes the lead in the stretch, race over. I was actually doing the math as to how much I was going to get back on my exactas. Then the horse stops about 50 yards before the wire, letting BOTH Smuggler and RP rally back past her. It couldn\'t have been 1 of the 2, but BOTH had to rally past her. RAces like that make me want to give up on this game.....
I haven\'t checked yet in the redboard room, but I would bet that T-Graph had Round Pound, as she looked fast, consistent and 60 percent to pair up for run a new top. Tough to like her at 2-1 in the win pool, for me.
HP,
>Her last was BAD relative to her best efforts. You can watch replays till your eyes fall out of your head, she ran a FIVE.<
I think Jerry would agree with me that losing a couple of lengths at the start is worth an adjustment of some kind in this case.
I am saying that rushing up after breaking slowly into a moderately fast pace 3W is worth more than just the ground loss.
You might not agree with that.
So I suggest that when watching route races in the future you make special note of horses that get left at the start and then rush up wide into contention on the first turn in a moderately fast or fast pace and see how they finish relative to expectations (examine speed figures too).
I am certain that after you make note of a few dozen horses like that, you\'ll see what I mean.
You viewed her as a horse with possible problems that ran a 5 last time out.
I viewed her as a horse with possible problems that ran the eqivalent of about a 2 last time out.
I think there is a lot of value in recognizing potential physical problems. That was the case here and I think TG did a great job in noting that.
However, she was trained by McAnally, was working well, improved off the freshening when you understand her last effort better, and was 7-1.
If she was 2-1, had actually run as poorly as a 5, and was trained by a bumb, (or some combination like that) I probably would have boxed 4 horses to beat her.
Jimbo,
The 2-1 kept me off Pound Round.
I wanted to bet against Splendid Blendid in the worst way (she actually ran pretty well).
DavidRex,
>is there some exotic gimmick that I could have won some cash because she ran well last time out?<
LOL.
No one was going to beat the winner anyway.
From my perspective, I prefer ripping up tickets while still being confident I understood the situation correctly.
She was vulnerable to her physical problems, but we were getting 7-1 (not 5-2) and her last race was better than it looks. It\'s at ticket I don\'t mind trashing. :-)
Class,
If I thought she ran a 2 last out (with some kind of an adjustment) I would have thrown her out as well. Two is about her top, and I would\'ve bet against her pairing it, given her previous history and the fact that it took her a YEAR to get back to it.
HP
I\'m a TG player, so I don\'t know what kind of numbers the Sheets had for the race, but a guy I know who plays California and is a Sheets player, said this would be \"Andujar\'s coming out party\" and he was pretty right. I think first time O\'Neill meant as much to him as anything else.
Jimbo:
\"Races like that make me want to give up on this game...\"
My calculations were simpler than yours. Large win bet on In the Gold, maybe the sluggish break cost her the race. And it was great to watch Rick Porter, who I killed all winter for his handling of Rockport Harbor, lead his filly into the winner\'s circle...
I give up on the game every Sunday afternoon, will be right back at it by post time at Belmont Wednesday...
Speaking of Belmont, lack of posts on the board concerning the big race Saturday pretty
much tell the story... a potential 10 horse field with only 2 Grade I winners, not very inspiring.
Class,
I really thought she would lay right behind AK and move on bt in the stretch. Andujar put and end to that strategy real quick. Bad assumption on my part.
I get what you mean about being taken out of their normal style but thought she had a tremendous edge in post and weight that SP could lay in behind and a make a run.
Thanks for the insight.
richiebee,
I think everyone is trying to figure out who will run 2nd,3rd,4th. Believe the winner might be low odds. Then again at least 9 others think different.
HP,
\"If I thought she ran a 2 last out (with some kind of an adjustment) I would have thrown her out as well. Two is about her top, and I would\'ve bet against her pairing it, given her previous history and the fact that it took her a YEAR to get back to it.\"
Understood.
I\'m a little less willing to toss horses on tops or near tops except in certain circumstances.
Class,
FILLIES ESPECIALLY get tossed off tops, unless they\'ve shown they can hold their form...or unless they haven\'t bounced yet. HoF fails on both counts.
HP
Well put H.P.,now add to the formula that she was off poorly[a first for her],and what I bet was an ouchy hoss ..a year removed from her top...last was easier spot...
Or as the guy who cashed this race uttered to us on the way out of the track \"see ya later suckers!\"
PARTYpokerON!
HP,
I am less willing to read patterns to the same extent as many TG players (and certainly WAY LESS than the Rags) because I routinely believe that various aspects of a horse\'s trip that are not included in the figures account for some of the fluctuations in the figures.
That\'s why I tend to not get too involved in pattern discussions. I am seeing very different form patterns/cycles because I am not just looking at the raw figures.
I do agree that fillies tend to be more volatile in their performances, but I find it curious that at first you were arguing that HOF was a toss because she was too slow and now she\'s a toss because she ran too fast.
Had I said I thought she ran an adjusted 3 last time out on her way back to another 1, there would be another reason to disagree.
I think the one thing we can agree on is that if I have something to say around here, people will look for a way to disagree.
Post Edited (06-06-05 10:09)
Class,
\"I think the one thing we can agree on is that if I have something to say around here, people will look for a way to disagree.\"
Probably a true statement, although I never understood why you get more heat than another poster who has been conspicuously absent for 4 or 5 days.
I was with you on House of Fortune and we went down. But your \"post-race\" comments are some of what is giving you heat. A lot of people on this board handicap the races and post opinions. When wrong, we ACCEPT we were wrong and maybe learn from it. In hindsight, House of Fortune was a bad bet. Not just because she lost, but she was off form and you/I continued to give her excuses for that form. I still think our bet was a better bet than Star Parade considering that filly is ALSO off form and ran a clunker for 3rd, at shorter odds. But the Star Parade backers are not here posting after the race what a great bet she was.
I think the lesson here was to look extra hard at improving horses, at the right price. Yes, Andujar was only coming in off a \"5\" and was a few points too slow to win, but considering the \"5\" was her first race on the dirt, she was first time O\'Neill, and was well-bred for the dirt, 7-1 was a good gamble, especially if you didn\'t like Star Parade or Hollywood Story. Alpabet Kisses at 3-1 was a complete toss and the worst bet in the race, if you use Thorograph. She was slow and figured to have much less upside than Andujar.
Certain horses are \"sucker horses\" for most gamblers. We bet them a few times and then have trouble getting off of them, for me House of Fortune is one of them. I think Saturday, I finally got off. So make sure the rest of you bet her back next time, she is sure to pop at long odds!!
Class,
I re-read my posts.
I never said she was a toss because she was too slow. I said she never got back to her top from last year. She obviously was fast enough, on her BEST, to win this race.
I later said IF YOU (emphasis on YOU) were giving her extra credit for running better last out than the figure showed, that kind of thing would make her even more of a toss for ME, since that (an \"adjusted\" THREE) would qualify as MORE of an effort than was reflected in the FIVE assigned by TG.
There is really only ONE disagreement that I can see here. You thought she ran better than the FIVE indicated last out. I don\'t.
I think she ran a FIVE. Period. IF you use TG, it seems you only use it as a departure point for your own ideas.
Nothing I said had anything to do with her being \"too fast\" or \"too slow.\" It was all about the pattern, and you\'re saying you are seeing different patterns because you are not looking at the raw figures.
I just pay Jerry for the figures and use them.
HP
Jimbo,
\"When wrong, we ACCEPT we were wrong and maybe learn from it. In hindsight, House of Fortune was a bad bet.\"
I hear your point clearly.
I just don\'t think that when my horse runs poorly that that automatically translates into a poor bet when I was accounting for that exact possibility for that very reason in my odds line.
I\'m not sure I learned anything from this race, but I obviously wouldn\'t play HOF off this performance because she was pretty dreadful this time.
I think the discussion went too far because I was trying to explain her prior trip and my thinking about her form coming in. Obviously, I often have a very different view than people that are looking at the figures alone.
Post Edited (06-06-05 18:49)