is all i have to say
Looked like a public workout!
CtC, maybe you can start calling him GhostMachine!
I just got back from Belmont. I think that was the perfect comeback. He didn\'t have to work that hard or run that fast and he still got the job done.
There was a little rain mid day and they rolled the track. I think TG will probably have to break that race out from the rest of the day.
If I had to make a guess, I\'d estimate a Beyer figure in the 116 range +/- a couple of points.
Post Edited (05-30-05 18:29)
There\'s your 6L\'s
Kev,
Some people are never wrong. Check the other thread on the Met Mile, now Silver Charm is saying he is great....... Clown will probably have some reason to discount the race though.
What makes his race look so much better is that it was clear he didn\'t want to go in the gate. Took almost 3 full minutes to load him. Then he runs a race like that.
Did his jock even put the whip to him?? Let me ask you all this. The next race he shows up in ( whatever it might be ) will other trainers back down from him now?? Looking over some of the past great ones, there were alot of times where they faced only 4 or 5 horses. Whose going to step up and take him on now?? Or do you just race for 2nd place money, in a 500,000 or 750,000 race.
why break it out?
It seemed to me to be a pretty glib surface, and I can guarentee that it does not get a 116 beyer, it will be between 10-125, and I side closer to 125. 116 would be a slower race then Forest Danger ran last time out, which I find hard to beleive ghostzapper did not run much superior to that.
classhandicapper wrote:
> I just got back from Belmont. I think that was the perfect
> comeback. He didn\'t have to work that hard or run that fast and
> he still got the job done.
>
> There was a little rain mid day and they rolled the track. I
> think TG will probably have to break that race out from the
> rest of the day.
>
> If I had to make a guess, I\'d estimate a Beyer figure in the
> 116 range +/- a couple of points.
>
>
>
> Post Edited (05-30-05 18:29)
Beyer is a 122.
kev wrote:
>The next race he shows up in ( whatever it might be )
> will other trainers back down from him now??
GZ ran big figure again. Is it the negatvie 4 he\'s been earning in sprints or the negative 6 he has earned in routes? Seem to recall reading the following races were on Ghostdodgers agenda:
Woodward
Suburban
Whitney
Breeders Cup Classic
Possible Turf Start
Have to guess you won\'t see backer downers in a couple of them and if the others are handicaps the racing secretary can fill the fields if he assigns fitting imposts. (No more jokes like the Met.)
Looking at that Met Mile, the complexion changed immensely when Medallist bowed out and you had to figure if Ghostdodger was right, and any horse at all, he beats whats left by about six lengths in about 1.33 A 123 impost is not sufficient to impact a good horse in a weak field. Ghost is a good horse that was ready, though theres been other recent winners of the Met Mile that would have beaten him, even on the poorly assigned imposts. Though he had every right to be tired, Ghost was shortening up late.
> of the past great ones, there were alot of times where they
> faced only 4 or 5 horses.
Facing small fields increases every horse\'s chances. Facing only five in the Met was more commentary on the level of competition currently available. (If was almost 4, but for Love of Money\'s error in coming back short) Past walkovers and very small fields have been a result of a Great horse previously beating his contemporaries while carrying 130 plus pounds and spotting them 14 pounds in weight. Ghostdodger is not a 3YO, hes a good handicap horse and he certainly needs to be weighted properly in relation to the accomplishments of his rivals. Until then, he may not face truly competitive fields and thats one reason until he does he can\'t be called Great.
He also has two other big hurdles to overcome. The Suburban and the Breeders Cup Classic. Guessing its Ghostzapper that dodges weight and 10 marks for as long as he can.
------------
\"You dream of winning the Kentucky Derby, but your best dream is to know you have the best horse,\" said trainer Bobby Frankel, who won his fourth Met Mile. \"All the years I\'ve been training and watching Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, and Secretariat and wondering if I\'m ever going to get a horse like that. This might be the horse.\'\'
Crybobby, not even close, those others proved their greatness with distance and weight. You got some work to do.
\"Forest Danger, the Carter winner who many believed could upset Ghostzapper, \"ran off with me the whole time and drifted out,\" Velazquez said.\"
Thought he wanted a wider path for some reason. Now it seems something was amiss:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/65470.html
Post Edited (05-31-05 12:01)
Personally, I think a Beyer of 122 is a bit on the fast side.
The race almost certainly needed to be broken out from the rest of the day (I didn\'t look at the rest of the day) because it rained mid day and they worked on the track after that. It\'s unlikely that the track \"didn\'t\" change speeds a bit.
A 122 would mean that Silver Wagon ran a much improved Beyer of about 111. That\'s cetainly not impossible because he is lightly raced and has decent back form, but it\'s far from certain.
Pomeroy and Sir Shackelton saved some ground and may have earned 102 Beyers, but Pomeroy did not look he was finishing very well here.
I think the performances of both Forest Danger and Love on Money have to be discounted. We could debate why they ran the way they did, but the bottom line is they didn\'t run their best figures.
IMHO, 122 is a bit of a stretch even if possible. I think it can often be dangerous to assume everyone ran to their figure in a hotly contested race of higher quality than most of the combatants are used to.
Post Edited (05-31-05 14:06)
Why not email Beyer about this? I\'d be interested in his reply. It seems silly to post about Beyer numbers here...
HP
I think the fact that there was some rain, work on the track prior to the running of the race, and a pretty hot middle part of the race leaves a lot of room for interpretation of the results in making the figure. I think it will also be interesting to see what RAG gives it vs. TG considering RAG tends not to break out races.
Post Edited (05-31-05 14:21)
Once again...from a gambling aspect \"who gives a kitty\" about a #.
HP is right...go kvetch to beyer.
If you didn\'t have a taste of the race that would be unfortunate,but don\'t take it out on the winner because you lost.
I didn\'t bet the race and even if I did I am beyond the point of allowing that to influence my judgement about his performance yesterday.
Personally, I couldn\'t care much what figure Ghostzapper earned. I know what he was capable of last year. I expected him to be less than 100% yesterday (because it would be smart training and Frankel said he was before the race) but I expect him to be able to run back to his best form this year at some point.
I am more interested in getting an accurate appraisal of the race because of the figures that will be assigned to the rest of the field and my ability to evaluate those horses properly going forward.
Post Edited (05-31-05 14:18)
Class,
I was making a serious suggestion. I really do wonder what Beyer would say if you emailed him, and you could actually email him and find out what he had to say about it.
If it\'s true that you don\'t give \"a rats ass\" what figure Ghostzapper ran I have no idea why you would post your opinion that \"122 is a bit on the fast side\" in the first place.
Based on what I know about Beyer, I don\'t think he\'s \"breaking out the race.\" He may review and change something later, but Beyer\'s method is, by necessity, more mechanical. The race was two ticks slower than the stakes record. I can\'t say 122 is terribly out of whack for Beyer, since that\'s pretty much where the clock puts the race, and the clock is his main ingredient.
Beyer may have a good answer for you, and it may help you in your search for the \"accurate appraisal\" you are looking for. If you got an answer I\'d be interested in hearing it.
HP
HP,
I don\'t have Beyer\'s e-mail address. I\'m not even sure who makes the NY Beyer figures these days.
At the risk of repeating myself, I thought the fact that there was some rain and work on the track prior to the race would make for some interesting conversation that Jerry would ultimately comment on when everyone has assigned a figure for the race.
I know for a fact many races are broken out by the Beyer crew. He does this even more so for turf races out of necessity. I only post this here because it is similar to Jerry\'s methodology in some respects.
Beyerguy,
Okay, you may be right. Do you think the 122 he gave Ghostzapper is \"broken out?\" I don\'t think so. I think he\'s \"locked on the clock.\"
HP
I\'ll check when Simulcast Weekly comes out, its easy to tell with all the Beyers from all the races for the day next to each other. My guess looking at the other races and the final times is that it is broken out, but its just a guess. Seeing that the race was run on a Monday, it won\'t come out until mid next week.
By the way, just so people don\'t think I\'m trying to come across as some Beyer insider, I\'m not. I just check the Beyer\'s to look for broken out races as you can find some good value there many times.
Memorial Day variant for all dirt races pegged at +35 by the computer geeks.That equates to 1 and 3/4 lengths faster than par after adjustments for wind.
Here\'s Beyer\'s e-mail address:
sports@washpost.com
Looks like since he\'s a freelance columnist - his e-mails go straight to the general sports e-mail address but I\'m sure he would eventually see what y\'all send him...
I think dave lifton makes them for new york
classhandicapper wrote:
> HP,
>
> I don\'t have Beyer\'s e-mail address. I\'m not even sure who
> makes the NY Beyer figures these days.
>
> At the risk of repeating myself, I thought the fact that there
> was some rain and work on the track prior to the race would
> make for some interesting conversation that Jerry would
> ultimately comment on when everyone has assigned a figure for
> the race.