The real problem in using the sheets nowadays(either rags or thoros) is they have done too good a job.
In the \"old days\", it was not uncommon to be looking at a 14 horse (that wins) at 6 to 1 running against a bunch of 17 & 18\'s but not now...that 14 horse is the odds-on fav.
The other situation I constantly run into are races where, besides a few obvious throwouts, every horse in the race looks like it will run the same number (all 17 races are especially popular at Saratoga).
I have been using the sheets since the middle 80\'s and am about to quit....which means I will no longer go to the track (something I enjoy) as I couldn\'t handicap a race using the DRF to save my life.
Somebody out there puleeze help, I will really miss ol\' Sufferin Downs!!
Although I have noticed a subtle affect on final odds perhaps due in part to TG and or sheets numbers or analysis-This years KD with horses like Perfect Drift is I believe a good example, I still never ever ever have seen anybody else but me either on track, mostly Saratoga and the occasional trip back down to the city) or at any Capitol OTB looking at any kind of sheets. Maybe they all left them at home or have phone accounts. I\'d love to know what the sales volume is for TG data sold on site at Capital OTB\'s Teletheatre in Albany. It\'s likely not many. My observations are that so many people are to cheap to even by DRF much less TG data and most are also too greedy and are only interested in the outcome-hitting the big score and avoid like the plague the stimulating process of handicapping. My point is in my opinion there is still much value to be had even at NYRA tracks using TG data. Maybe its not as easy to find value as it used to be and thats what I love about this game-that its continually challenging us, forcing us to be flexible and improve.
While maybe only 1% of the crowd is using sheets, they bet thousands of dollars a race. And with the Beyer figs in the Form now it is almost impossible to get a true overlay on a figure horse. If you want an edge over the crowd you must use methods that no one else has access to. Speed handicapping is dead, which is probably why figure makers are more interested in SELLING their figures than in USING them to bet the races.
I think given that Beyer Figures are in the form is actually a good thing. They aren\'t too good and more times than not, they
make underlays on horses that ain\'t that good. Be happy they are in the form.
Nunzio
PS With that said, they did indicate WAR
EMBLEM was a true contender but Andy
beyer himself didn\'t even pick him to
finish 1,2,3. Whats up with that ?
How do you know Beyer did NOT play WE in the Derby?? And just not tell anyone. After all, if you got a good longshot why blab it all around the track and turn your 20-1 into a 10-1. Or why not even add a few points to the odds touting some other dog. Like the commercial says... sheep make lousy cyber traders (and may I add horse players).
In an article in DRF just before the Preakness Beyer admitted to not playing WE in the Derby despite the speed fig he gave him for the Illinois Derby. If anyone would want to give themselves credit for their figs it would be Beyer. But he was honest and didn\'t.
Whichever sheets you are using, I strongly suggest you try the others before you give up. Also, spend some time looking at trainer patterns--they help a lot.
There are also not that many people smart enough to use them properly.
Alan Gutterman (now head of marketing at Hollywood) once estimated that 2% of the people were responsible for 50% of the handle. I agree that it\'s impossible to get overlays on horses who are just plain faster, but there are lots of other overlays. Also, rebates have leveled the field for big bettors.
Frankly I think the real money is made by insiders that have access to information we don\'t.
Hasn\'t it always been that way?
Several comments here and then let\'s get onto the Belmont Stakes discussion; I always find these discussions to be excellent food for thought.
--I think the point is that the Beyer Numbers and TG numbers and Sheets numbers are all good predictors of outcomes. But since more people have access to them, you must handicap using more intangibles like class, subtle trip factors, and trainer patterns...things like that, in order to find value.
--Basically, you must find horses to appear to have performed more poorly than they really have (or can be expected to improve). It sounds much more simple than it is, though.
Now back to the Belmont...OK, I\'ll say it: I\'m still not that impressed with War Emblem. He had a very easy trip in the Derby and his trip in the Preakness was, in my opinion, also an easy one. Everyone knows that stalking and taking over from a very weak horse that clearly couldn\'t get the distance is almost the same is going wire to wire. And he was life or death to hold on against a pretty weak horse in Magic Weisner.
So, who can beat War Emblem in the Belmont? I don\'t have the answer but I\'m leaning more and more strongly to Proud Citizen. PC had wide trips in BOTH the Derby and the Preakness, made a run at War Emblem and almost got even with him in the Preakness despite his very wide trip, and held pretty well to be 3rd. I know I just denograted Magic Weisner so how can I admire or tout Proud Citizen? Again, it\'s all in the trip; Magic Weisner sat a perfect rail trip the entire Preakness until deep stretch (after the turn, anyway) and then made the one move, which looked much better than it really was.
Proud Citizen is very well-bred for distance and well-trained by a guy (who I normally can\'t stand) named Lukas who\'s had success in the Belmont. And I\'m just not that impressed with anything else in the race, thus far. Sunday Break had a perfect trip in the Wood and in the Peter Pan and didn\'t have a powerful move in either. Like a Hero doesn\'t appear to be prepared for a 1 and a half mile trip. Who should I be looking at more closely? How am I off-base? C\'mon, let\'s talk Belmont.
Anyone care to guess at the odds on the major contenders? I think WE will be around even money and PC around 9-2; just a guess, of course. Sunday Break will probably be closer to 7-2.
Dark Star
\"It takes a special horse to make all three dances. It takes a real special one to win all three,\" said D. Wayne Lukas, who trained Charismatic. \"It takes a toll.\"
Charismatic suffered a career-ending injury in the 1999 Belmont, in which he finished third. Lukas said he believes Charismatic lost the Triple Crown and was injured because jockey Chris Antley had him too close to the pace.
\"It was totally a product of the trip, including the breakdown,\" Lukas said from Churchill Downs, where he is preparing Proud Citizen for the Belmont. \"That wasn\'t the kind of race he ran to win the first two.\"
Prior to the 1999 Belmont Lukas gave Chris Antley instructions to stay with the speedy Silverbulletday. He of all trainers knows you don\'t let quality speed loose on the lead. Antley followed Luka\'s instructions to the letter and got beat when a couple good horses picked up the pieces late. Charismatic had ankle problems before that race. Although the vast majority of Lukas runners break down around Triple Crown time and are not heard from again. But the ugly soul of revisionist history has raised his head again. Antley has been blamed previously by Lukas for not having his head in the game and not caring as much for Charismatic as he did. But this is the first time I\'ve read Antley receiving blame for the man\'s own decisions. It\'s easy to take petty shots at a dead man. Will some good horse aim a swift kick at this moron\'s head?
lol
Tabi
I was thinking the same thing. Glad you posted that.
MO