Even Belmont Park, with its wide sweeping turns and 1 1/2 circumference is not big enough to accomodate the size of their egos.
ZITO & LUKAS think they are the Triple Crown and have made a mockery of it this year by running horses that were either over the top, gutted, or simply not good enough.
Most likely they will both be back on June 11th to burn more money, most of it at the expense of name or color lovers. The rest of us have hopefully wised up.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Zito is sending Pinpoint from the Sir Barton and Andromeda\'s Hero. The latter might be worth a look after reviewing the Derby some more. If he was down inside he would deserve some consideration.
Burn baby, burn.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Zito and Lukas continue to focus on the Triple Crown, and owners continue to pipeline
them prospects.
Sometimes when I see a Lukas entry like Going Wild, I think about Jack Nicklaus announcement that he will be playing his final British Open. For the last few years, he has dragged himself to the tournament in ill health and with poor game. It was sad to watch, because Nicklaus had almost fooled himself into thinking that the event could not go on without him. I think D Wayne feels the same way about the Triple Crown races.
And then again, there was Commendable...
Commendable is on most people\'s list of \"worst winners of a Triple Crown race\".
However, what Lukas did this year takes the cake. Commendable was only 14-1 that year and did not come into the race off of resounding defeats. No, he didn\'t \"class up\", nor was he \"fast enough\", but he wasn\'t thrashed.
Look at what Lukas did this year. HE gets beat 41 lengths in the Wood. For most trainers, that would be enough to discourage them. He decides \"the race is too bad to be true\", so he wheels him back in the Lexington against a lousy field. He gets beat 17 lengths there, another thrashing. He comes back with \"some horses don\'t like Keenland\" as his impetus for running in the Derby. He gets beat 29 in the Derby. Another thrashing, and his new line is \"the pace got him, I feel we should persever with this horse\". Then he gets beat by 40 in the Preakness.
Now he says \"we want to get back to what this horse does best, which is sprinting\"
They should immediately revoke his Hall of Fame status. It is shocking to see the Lewis\'s be a part of this years mess with that horse, as they have always come across as classy. And when Consolidator got hurt before the Derby, both Lukas and the Lewises said all the right things and took it in stride.
Apparently they took it out on Going Wild......
Chuckles,
Interesting article in today\'s Lexington Herald Leader. Talking about the \"new breed\" of trainers in the Triple Crown races. 8 of last 9 TC winners were trained by guys winning their first TC race. It quoted Zito as saying \" It just shows that the game is on the level.\" \" The fancy guys shouldn\'t win all the time. That\'s no good.\"
Wow!
The guy ran a rabbit in the Derby. Someone he used to work for ran a rabbit in the Derby.
He said he went eight deep on his Super Ticket.
Even people as thickheaded as this group should be able to figure out what these guys were up too.
Lets see
05 Ritchey
05 Shireffs
04 Zito
04 Servis
04 Servis
03 Frankel
03 Tagg
03 Tagg
02 McPeek
02 Baffert
02 Baffert
01 Baffert
01 Baffert
01 Ward
00 Lukas
00 Orseno? (Red Bullet)
00 Drysdale
99 Schulhofer
99 Lukas
99 Lukas
98 Walden
98 Baffert
98 Baffert
97 Byrne? (Touch Gold)
97 Baffert
97 Baffert
Zito is partially correct. Of the last 9 Triple Crown Races 6 have been won by first time winners of a Triple Crown race. However, 2 of those 9 were by the \"usual suspects\": Frankel and Zito. Additionally, those two have been knocking repeatedly on the door the last couple years in other Triple Crown races.
Interesting angle for Zito to be able to refer to it so adroitly. He\'s obviously given it some thought. I wonder why?
\"Afleet Alex got a Beyer Speed Figure of 112 and, despite the harrowing incident, won the Preakness by 4 3/4 lengths.
\"It should have been 10,\" said Jeremy Rose, who rode Afleet Alex. \"We were rolling.\"
unquote, (Scrappy was doing pretty good too until he blew the turn)
Asked what he thought of Dominguez\'s ride, Ritchey said, \"My father told me if you don\'t have anything good to say, don\'t say anything.\"
http://www.drf.com/news/article/65256.html
Post Edited (05-23-05 20:30)
Nick is a very nice guy. His record in the Derby (2 for 18) mirrors his overall stats as a 10 % ( on a good day ) trainer. But he\'s a really nice guy and image is everything...................
Yes Silver Charm,
Us thickheaded people in this group don\'t believe that Lukas ran Going Wild as a rabbit for Bandini on behalf of Pletcher who worked for him 10 years ago. Especially in that Tabor already had a rabbit in the race and there was no need to run him back in the Preakness as a \"rabbit\" again. You are right. If that is your point, count me in the \"thickheaded\" group that is too stupid to see that point.
Jerry,
Forest Danger is running back in the Met Mile. Prior to his last race (Carter?), he had run a race down in Florida where you gave him a lower figure than either Beyer or Rags. Beyer gave him a 119 and I heard the Rags fig was huge also. He was a \"bet against\" as the favorite, based on his T-Graph figs going into that NY race, he was a \"Bet against\". But he ran pretty huge in that race after a slow start. I believe somebody on this board questioned the Florida figure after the race and you said it was one of those that you were monitoring and could be off (not exact words there, just paraphrase). Anyway, my question is whether you have revised that figure down in Florida or did you leave it at -2?
Again read what I wrote.
>Someone he used to work for ran a rabbit in the Derby.
Lukas never worked for Pletcher, he worked for Tabor.....who made all of his money doing what???
Pletcher worked for Lukas.
Why run back in the Preakness? Where does your \"conspiracy theory\" lead to there?
Let us not forget that Tabor admitted on national TV to wagering some $50K on Thunder Gulch (maybe only $25K - regardless a huge wager), breaking from post 16 (1% winners historically at that point - or therabouts) in the Derby, a race that was scrutinized on the front page of the DRF the day after with an arrow pointing to the \"alleged\" buzzer transaction between Stevens and Day after the wire, a race in which the FBI investigated, blew up the photo the size of a garage door and proclaimed that \"This is a 3 dimentional object, and not a shadow\" in a race where Lukas had 3 uncoupled entries, one of which was the favored filly (HA HA) Serena\'s Song and 2nd choice (with Day) on Timber Country. Heck, it was only the Kentucky Derby.
I have the video tape available with frame by frame slow motion documentation , mind you, the undeniable fact that Stevens had TG \"plugged in\" and that there was a conspiracy to fix the Derby of 1995. Listen to Pat Day\'s comments upon winning the Preakness (payback for a job well done) regarding his brother who at the time was hospitalized a week before the Derby. He was a backstretch worker at Churchill and was severly beaten up as a message to Pat - \"better pick up this package at the wire or else\".
There were 2 guys in California who tried to extort money from Stevens about this a few years ago to no avail. Obviously dummies with no video.
Well folks, I\'m fed up and sick and tired of all this BS that cripples a game I used to really enjoy playing. I have the tape, so Gary, come and get me. I\'d love the opp to play it in court.
It might be professional suicide on my part, but better that I be unemployed in racing than to let a thief get away with a crime commited on national TV, a crime that has more ramifcations than one can imagine. People (suckers) breed to TG thinking they actually are breeding to a LEGIT KY Derby winner. They got money, but are very short on brains.
Tabor has been in trouble before in Europe for \"alleged\" race fixing. These are all DOCUMENTED FACTS. I rest my case, for now.
Post Edited (05-23-05 21:39)
>one of which was the favored filly(HA HA) Serena\'s Song and 2nd choice (with Day) on Timber Country.
They ran as an Entry MO.
She was the speed horse who faded at the eighth pole and won the Black-Eyed Susan two weeks later by 13.
He said the other day he thought that Timber Country, the big closer would win.
Wonder Why?
TG was not coupled, but a separate betting interest. OK, Serena and TC were coupled. Same sh%t. What\'s your point?
Lukas could easily be governor of California given the current occupant.
Post Edited (05-23-05 21:47)
>Even people as thickheaded as this group should be able to figure out what these guys were up too.
I guess I gave you guys too much credit.
which guys?
Please elaborate to those of us who might be \"a little bombed\" off the job, as opposed to \"bombed\" on the job?
MO,
You are a good handicapper and your opinion carries weight. This Thunder Gulch story is puzzling, especially now that Supertrainer drugs and Ramsey\'s antics and Frankel\'s deals and Wygod\'s evasions and Mullins covert doings and the CHRB\'s ostensible \"incompetence\" paint a picture of tampering with races and deceiving the public. Its hard enough to cash a bet on legitimate trainer and form patterns without having to figure out the frauds.
Without contesting you\'re point, this is a hard one to prove it though. Tgraph folks were all over Thunder Gulch on pattern. However one factors Thunder Gulch\'s Derby win, he also won the Belmont and Travers and sired a Belmont winner in Point Given. Which is not to say you are in any way mistaken on the Derby event.
http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/derbywinners.pdf
Post Edited (05-23-05 22:47)
Tell ya what. Everyone on this board has access to my email. Send me your address thru Pay Pal along with $10.00 to cover tape and shipping and I will send you the tape - in slo motion - and you can decide for yourselves if this was the best 10 bucks you ever spent, or if I am off my rocker.
You know the saying: Put up or shut up? Well, I\'m putting up. What you do with the evidence is up to you. But I will stake my professional reputation and (could be) my life on this documented fact. Yes, documented. George Washington was the 1st president. It\'s a documented fact. So is the fixing of the 1995 Kentucky Derby. Guess I\'ll never get that gig now, huh?
Anyone who thinks that Pat Day would be even remotely involved in a buzzer swapping incident, needs to be given the buzzer themselves.
Perfect. That\'s why they went to him. You have no clue as to how the mob operates.
MO, I have heard and seen some crazy things at the track in my life but this is the best yet. If tabor was going to fix a race do you think he would do it with a \"buzzer\" using to of the most prominent jocks in the world? With all the drugs available, most which were not being tested for thi scenario makes no sense and would is beyond ridiculous. Perhaps it was really a robot who looked like Pat Day that was riding timber country or maybe....
If Santos can get away with it w/funny side...why not Day?!
Maybe those two only do that stuff exercising hosses...like Sosa only goes to the cork during batting practice.
If the \"mob\" needs to use a buzzer to fix the #1 betting race in country...well maybe your right..I don\'t understand them.
PRAISE THE LORD!
Mark,
What is your email address ? I would love to see a copy of the tape.
John
I\'m not sure if I read this message board for the handicapping insights or because it\'s even more entertaining than reruns of the x-files. :-)
Post Edited (05-24-05 08:55)
MO,
I\'ve always thought the main problem with this story is the fact that TGulch went on to win other big races that year. It would hold a lot more water for me if he crapped out after the Derby, but he didn\'t.
TG had him as one of the top 3 going into the race, and I could\'ve cared less about the post when I saw 25-1.
Stevens rode a FANTASTIC race, and drafted right to the inside on the first turn behind the wave of horses to his left -- and this had nothing to do with any \"buzzer.\" Gave his horse every chance to win.
So the supporting evidence (Tabor betting, TGulch going on to win more) is weak. I\'ll take your word for it that the tape is strong. I heard the Pat Day/brother-beating story. I guess anything is possible...
HP
Jimbo-- we did change it, and I mentioned it on the board when we did. I don\'t make those calls based just on the winner, by the way, but it ended up with him pairing up.
I must have reviewed the AA sprint win at Oaklawn 5 times, couldn\'t come up with a satisfactory resolution, and now I\'m going to have to do it again. Haven\'t done the Preakness yet, but it\'s gonna be a big number-- about 4 points better than Zakocity if the track stayed the same.
Incidentally, while the near disaster was absolutely amazing, I don\'t think it cost AA that much in lengths-- he appeared not to lose that much momentum, recovering very quickly. And man, was that horse running at the end.
As for the Sir Ray race-- we\'ll give him credit for the ground loss, and go from there. I\'m hoping to see a tape of the race, sounded pretty wild.
TGJB wrote:
> Jimbo-- we did change it, and I mentioned it on the board when
> we did. I don\'t make those calls based just on the winner, by
> the way, but it ended up with him pairing up.
This is a critical inquiry for a number of reasons. Obviously, the first of which is the Met Mile. Secondly, in factoring Bellamania\'s return engagement(s).
Its been difficult to follow the discussion, especially with the imprecise language:
\" Anyway, my question is whether you have revised that figure down in Florida or did you leave it at -2?\"
Revise the figure \"down\"? Does that mean faster or slower?
The gist of it seems to be that Forest Danger\'s Feb. 14th race at Hallandale (6.5 marks in 1.14.44) was made faster from an original negative 2 or thereabouts, due to subsequent race efforts of horses involved on that card and in that Feb. 14th race.
If that is the position it is stunning to say the least. Forest Danger was coming into the Feb. 14th race off a 9 month layoff and whatever he tossed was a career top. It appears the contention is that it was a monumental career top and he paired it 7 weeks later in the Carter. Quizzical.
Its all very confusing to say the least, though if the loyal TGraph users are content, theres no reason for me not to be. Following is the thread I found in a search on the issue. Maybe I got the wrong thread:
TGJB wrote:
> Miff-- I wish I\'d seen the \"New York Bred Slow Rats\" race in
> the book. I was looking for that condition for Northern
> Stealth.
>
> The Aqu track Sat was faster by quite a bit than the one Friday
> (good to fast), but almost exactly the same speed as the ones
> Thu and Sunday, so I guess the question becomes, compared to
> what? The times looked fast due to some really fast horses
> running, and a large number of chute races that were sped up by
> the wind. Survivalist paired, everybody behind him ran well off
> their tops, Forest Danger ran a new top (sort of, more on that
> in a minute), Jerken\'s horse paired, Don Six went back. Lost In
> The Fog went back, Hushion\'s horse ran slightly worse than his
> top.
>
> People underestimate how much effect wind can have, especially
> on fractions-- we\'d have to run it through the computer, but my
> guess is you could add a second to the half for those 7f races,
> almost 2 seconds to the 6f in the miles, which wouldn\'t be that
> fast for the horses in question. The \"rats\" ran half a mile
> with the wind at their backs, and it helped them a little on
> the turn, hence the fast fraction and relatively fast final
> time.
>
> As far as the possible wind shift, I\'m having Litfin check, but
> if it was the other way those horses would get BETTER numbers.
> And, as I said, I took off a point or two early in the card
> anyway, just off looking at the horses.
>
> Michael D-- as we discussed, doing that GP figure for Forest
> Danger was a bitch (track was clearly getting faster, turf race
> on either side, no more dirt races afterward), and when he ran
> faster this time I reviewed it. Given what several have come
> back to run since, I went with the other possible scenario,
> which basically gives FD a pair.
>
>
Regarding the wind on Wood Day, there was a lot of speculation upon its impact. Reviewing the raw times, wind seems less than significant and the exchange between TGJB and SJU5 tends to indicate that it was.
TGJB wrote:
> SJU5-- Litfin checked his notes and you were right about the
> wind. As I said, I had taken off a little from those races, and
> when we redid the day with the right wind I no longer had to do
> that-- they matched up with the one turn races that followed,
> then the track actually got slightly slower late in the day.
>
> This is about chapter 10,000 of get all the information you
> can, but make as few assumptions as possible. In the end, you
> do your work off the horses.
> I must have reviewed the AA sprint win at Oaklawn 5 times,
> couldn\'t come up with a satisfactory resolution, and now I\'m
> going to have to do it again.
Apparently this means factoring it faster. Loyal customers should respect careful review.
>Haven\'t done the Preakness yet,
> but it\'s gonna be a big number-- about 4 points better than
> Zakocity if the track stayed the same.
The Preakness was big. The top two are fine race horses and are gonna prove it if they stay together.
> Incidentally, while the near disaster was absolutely amazing, I
> don\'t think it cost AA that much in lengths-- he appeared not
> to lose that much momentum, recovering very quickly. And man,
> was that horse running at the end.
Theres different strokes for different folks but the incident could be viewed perceiving that they both were impeded by the situation and that they both lost significant ground. The ground exploded with Alex digging in and his nose was 4 inches from the dirt. His knees appeared to touch. Scrappy proped and was straight up and going wide for far too long. Still need to see a clearer view.
> As for the Sir Ray race-- we\'ll give him credit for the ground
> loss, and go from there. I\'m hoping to see a tape of the race,
> sounded pretty wild.
This is cute lighthearted reading...lol:
http://www.afleetalex.com/diary.html
Post Edited (05-24-05 15:27)