That was an unbelievable race by Afleet Alex and the incident on the turn, makes his margin of victory much smaller than it would have been.
Scrappy T. ran a game race, not sure why Dominguez is hitting him left-handed in the middle of the turn.... But he was second best, by a mile.
What happened to the rest of these horses? What is it with this group of 3 year olds? Anybody see the beaten lengths numbers? Scrappy T. was five lengths better than the 3rd place finisher. Then you have Greeley\'s galaxy beat by 20, High Fly by 26, Noble Causeway by 19, Closing ARgument by 27, and Mr. Lukas and Going Wild by 42.
Another strange reason, not in that the winner was a surprise, but how many of the supposed \"good\" horses, never picked up their feet.
No 3 year old could get within 5 lengths of Scrappy T?
Zito\'s horses were all bums again.
Stute plans to work Greeley\'s GAlaxy another 5/8 of a mile tomorrow.... :)
The Belmont is not going to be a race to look forward to. Exactly which tomato can can you bet on against Afleet Alex? Not with my money.
Jimbo, why did he switch the stick and wail right handed....where was the first blow struck on Scrappy ????
I think Giacomo should be in a 50k claimer next week, he sucks....horse like sun king is much better
Greeleys broke bad again. I needed him or high limit for the super. Stute drilled him the other day so the break was surprising.
Closing Argument bounced. High Fly is better than he showed. Too much wear and tear on the Derby probably.
Alex proved the Ark was no fluke. That was by FAR the best derby prep and the bounce from it and insidish run at Churchill cooked him that day.
When Lukas ran five Derby Starters I think he won 2 or 3 legs of the triple that year.
Giacomo ran his race and some of the significant others bounced. Its just wide wasn\'t a benefit today is all.
Spa
Dominguez walloped Scrappy T lefthanded on the ribs.He had no clue Afleet Alex was near him-despite what he says.He needs to get many days for that.He should have hit him on his flank-not the ribs and he should have been aware of Afleet Alex.
When I earlier asked the question of \'patterns\', CA and ST seemed to be the \'best looking\' patterns.
Scrappy T ran well no doubt. A great selection by those who pointed him out. Well done.
Would have been a great key if I only chose to place the race on its own. (I didn\'t and missed the pick 4 with a hosrse I am embarassed to admit I left out ---from A to Z, it was not AA). I know...Dumb and Dumber.
So as I drown my sorrows in some Lemonade, at least I have my $40 grandstand seats for my 34th straight appearance at the BS in Elmont three weeks from now. Thanks NYRA for not charging me $150 per.
And I can also cash my $2 souvenir tickets on G as there will be no 3crown this year. ( I buy a cuple on each horse each year to try to put a triplecrown set together...hasn\'t worked too well).
Maybe I\'ll try EBAY and ask $200 apiece...lol.
Nice race of the week by the boys at T-graph.
I think from now on I am going to get smart and wager the opposite of who they advise or at the very least throw out who they advise.
I realize this is not an exact science but how dead wrong can they be ???
Oh well, there is always another race to bet tomorrow.
Post Edited (05-21-05 19:29)
hmmm brokers ...you almost had one last year. If smarty rates a bit, wins that thing and retires undefeated I bet those 3 two buck tickets bring a pretty penny.
Biggee, I was calling 911 for me. Hope you blew the doors off !!!!
I got back all my bad on Alex...I got too pig headed about Sun King (who still sucks) but 20 bucks on pig headedness cost me the full super.
Spa
Scrappy needed 911,but I did okay on the race.I thought the rest of the field were real pigs,and they are except for your horse.You called it.He\'s a damn good 3yo in any year.
AA may not be of the caliber of some of the better 3 year olds I have seen but I don\'t think I have ever seen a horse who is more agile or who looks as comfortable running among horses. This was true as early as last year in his Saratoga races. He is amazingly well balanced and did everyone catch the isolated replay? He absolutely exploded. He may not be a \"freak\" in terms of raw ability but his footwork is amazing.
Gowand,
I think the jury is still out on whether AA can be a \"freak\". Obviously, after the Derby, nobody thought so, but today\'s race was awfully impressive.
I had bet Greeley\'s Galaxy, so I was watching him make a move appproaching the turn and for a second I thought I had a shot, then a blur of horseflesh shot by like a rocket. I wasn\'t sure who it was at the time, but it was an awe inspiring acceleration. To then be almost knocked off his feet a few seconds later, only to recover and still win by open lengths, is very very impressive.
Who could you possibly make a case for in the Belmont, to beat this horse?
I say nobody, unfortunately.
You could go to the archives (Mar. 19 I think-the date of the Rebel). At least some of you were suggesting Alex should go back to Del. He was just a sprinter it was said. Didn\'t much care for J. Rose either as I recall.
Well, they\'re never as good as they look on their best day and never as bad as they look on their worst. If you remember Smarty\'s Preakness from last year you\'ll know Alex is no lock in the Belmont.
The nice thing is, a tragedy was narrowly averted and the best horse still won the race.
bally, check the archives 5/2/05. I was defending alex at that time, not because I thought he was the fastest horse but I am amazed at his ability to run in traffic. I still am not crazy about rose. It was the horse who saved the day today not the jockey. The most amazing part was the way he was almost immediately balanced and back on stride after the tangle. This is what makes him a unique horse.
Gowand
Read my post at the beginning of Odds & Ends. I don\'t know if you can get the iso replay that I refer to now but if you can you\'ll see that J. Rose clearly outrode Bailey today.
High Fly wasn\'t going to be a factor anyway but then I\'m not one of those who was supporting him and you can check that in the archives too, going all the way back to right after the Fla. Derby.
As I said then, the only reason Bailey was on this horse in the first place is, he couldn\'t find anything better.
Bally Ache wrote:
> You could go to the archives (Mar. 19 I think-the date of the
> Rebel). At least some of you were suggesting Alex should go
> back to Del. He was just a sprinter it was said. Didn\'t much
> care for J. Rose either as I recall.
>
> Well, they\'re never as good as they look on their best day and
> never as bad as they look on their worst. If you remember
> Smarty\'s Preakness from last year you\'ll know Alex is no lock
> in the Belmont.
>
> The nice thing is, a tragedy was narrowly averted and the
> best horse still won the race.
>
Rose has given Alex some hair raising rides. Alex was making an awe inspiring move on that last turn and had his momentum essentially slowed to even with Scrappy T, but then he rerallied to recover most of it. Rose was being very aggressive there. (Can\'t fault him for that.) The Champagne, Breeders Cup Juvenile and Ark rides were quizzical to say the least. In the Preakness again Rose almost got him in trouble, though perhaps due to no fault of his own. Some of us did call for Bailey, it doesnt mean we didn\'t think highly of Alex.
Alex was running a good Rebel and when he hit the aerobic mark he quit. Shortly after the race they scoped him and discovered a significant lung infection. The question was did he have it going in or did he develop it post race? Some interpreted it as him having it going in. An existing lung infection explained him stopping and was a factor in foundation for the Derby. The Ark made most long time handicappers realize the horse was special. But Silver is right, some of those Saratoga races tipped the hand. He\'s been right there in every race except the lung infection race. Thats why he was favored. Anyone can pick a favorite, but sometimes the favorite is the best horse.
Still congrats to those that hit that Derby, that was monumental.
Alex is the most tractable of the recent \"phenoms\" trying for the Belmont. That should play in his favor, but certainly 12 marks is tough going for the modern thoroughbred. Also Rose has probably not run many 12 mark races at Elmont. That was certainly a factor last year. Ritchey needs to sit down with him and watch a thousand films so he both stays in contact and doesnt move too soon.
Chuckles
I had Alex in the Sanford to which you refer elsewhere. I knew that provincial New Yorkers would underrate him. He paid $8 when he should have paid $5. That\'s how far back I go with this horse. Now I\'m being preached to about him by people who only recently discovered him (I\'m not referring to you here).
Here\'s what I see. After the Fla Derby you all liked High Fly. After the Wood you all liked Bellamy Road. After the Blue Grass you all liked Bandini. Now you all like Alex.
Well, I like him too. I bet him in the Derby. He didn\'t win. Rose put him in position to win and he got outfinished by a 50-1 shot and a 70-1 shot neither of which are probably ever going to the Hall of Fame.
Keep it all in perspective. You can\'t assume the last race is definitive.
\"people who recently discovered him\"....are you kidding? The fact that he was 3-1 in the Sanford should tell you you that you were not the first person to discover this horse. I also note you were not touting your Sanford score two weeks ago. gimme a break.
b. ache,
Talk til ur blue ..you can never disuade majority of NYRA degenerates of being steinbrenner fans.
Best way to deal w/ this territorial racism is to keep cashing those overlays!
PARTYpokerON!
bally,
go through the archives, that\'s a good idea. let us know how many horses you have posted on pre-race that won. after you do that, take a look through the archives and find posts of others who you mock. find out how many winners they have posted on. i think you will find that others have posted many winners, and you have posted nothing but a six buck horse and a lot of crap. your preaching is the most ridiculous thing i have ever seen on this board.
jim,
it\'s a horrible crop of three year old routers. seems like they get shorter and shorter every year. don\'t give up yet though. AA looks about as good as funny cide and smarty did heading into the belmont. i\'ll tell you this though - it\'s going to take a new shooter for me to get interested. the peter pan always produces a few belmont starters. let\'s see what happens next w/e.
Gowand
I started posting here in defense of Afleet Alex (and Rose) after the Rebel. Now that\'s a fact. I mentioned the Sanford to show when I started following the horse. It was about a six horse field with a couple of throwouts so believe me he was an overlay at $8. I\'m certainly not bragging about an $8. winner from last summer.
Michael D.
Is it my job to tout horses for you?
The problem with forums like this is nobody ever convinces anyone of anything. It\'s pointless.
Bally Ache,
Are you sure it was Afleet Alex you have been touting since the Sanford? The Sanford was a full field of 11 horses, not a six horse field with a couple throwouts.......
You are getting a reaction on this board for the lousy attitude. You picked the winner, congratulations, be happy you cashed. Many didn\'t cash.
To start with rubbish like \"you all liked High Fly, you all like Bellamy Road, now you all like Alex.....\" What is your point? That when a horse runs an impressive race, more bettors are likely to tout them next time out? Great point, unfortunately everybody else in the world is aware of that point.
bally,
you are preaching like you belong in the handicappers hall of fame because you have posted on one $6.80 winner. i don\'t want picks from anyone, but your commenting on the bad picks of others when you provide just about nil in terms of constructive handicapping opinions is absurd. get it?
and BTW,
it is possible to convince people of things on this board. simply buy TG, analyze a race, post some thoughts, and see how things turn out. if you are right, you will convince everyone. if you are wrong, you still might get a decent handicapping discussion going and learn something.
Post Edited (05-23-05 10:39)
This board is the most informative source online for evaluating the big races. It starts with the TFig. We are all investors, but its like E.F. Hutton, \"When Thorograph talks, people listen\". We may invest differently, but we consider the expertise. Investing is tricky business.
The generous host wants us to stay on point with the source. Theres a lot to figure and many times it trickles or even waterfalls down to other topics and considerations.
Everyone is gonna make mistakes. Its not an exact science and the validation process is difficult to say the least. Its poor form to criticize anothers selections after the fact, but no one really does that. We are all trying to evaluate where our opinions and the horses stand. It gets heated when theres money at stake. No one likes to lose, but theres many gentlemen here.
Bally Ache has taken some strong positions. One was that High Fly was a bad bet. The Preakness result sure looks like he was borne out on that one. He thought that Consolidator was a horse coming up to the big dance the right way until injured. Well, he did humble the Derby winner, though his prefered pace style might have compromised him in the Derby. We\'ll never know for sure.
Michael said something noteworthy here and though I consider myself a very good 3YO handicapper, I\'ll try to focus on TFig analysis in the future in the indicated races.
Michael D. wrote:
> it is possible to convince people of things on this board.
> simply buy TG, analyze a race, post some thoughts, and see how
> things turn out. if you are right, you will convince everyone.
> if you are wrong, you still might get a decent handicapping
> discussion going and learn something.
How bout that!
C[m]tc is acting as mediator for everyone dumping on b.ache.
Etiquette at the track was covered in a Beyer book...are we to follow the same rules and conditions?..or forge a new set of decorum dedicated to anonymity
Some day we\'ll have a device that will skip over [automatically] unwanted board messeges,much like a vcr skips over commercials.Till then its the old... if you don\'t care for whats being said...DON\'T READ IT!
PARTYpokerON!
Well guys, I\'ve fired a couple of warning shots recently, but it seems not too many have paid attention, so now that things are quieting down around here I\'m going to start policing this board a little bit. This ain\'t the place for self involved posts (except mine), it ain\'t a social chat room, it ain\'t a place to have personal fights (again except mine, and yes, I agree that the provocation can be extreme-- problem is that retaliation doesn\'t decrease it, in fact the opposite. I\'ll handle it).
It\'s also not a general handicapping board, it\'s a TG site. If someone wants to post alternative handicapping theories, it\'s okay if they do it briefly, cogently, not redboarding, and not repetitively.
The Board police are in the house.