:)
I should have won 4 derbies in a row.
I am INVINCIBLE
Post Edited (05-21-05 18:25)
On Sportscenter they just had up a graphic that said it was the 5th straight year an odds on horse had won the Preakness. After the Belmont they\'ll ignore racing till next spring
Also, when they showed the iso replay on AfleetAlex, down the backside did you see \"J.D.\" with that married man\'s ride? Not that it mattered.
The preakness is usually pretty formfull. Its the easiest race, IMO, for both horse and bettor...not that I had it
Saddle, say what !!! You are a great picker, but what!!!!!
Spa, I\'ve been wrong about my Derby/Preakness winners getting 12 marks easy, but unless something jumps up on the horizon here, they got their hands full with Alex in the Belmont. Andromedas is aiming for it.
Bandini and Flower Alley are two I\'d be leary of. Flower Alley ran the best Derby of the bias impacted horses.
Chuckles
Congratulations on sticking with Alex. I thought he was exhausted after the Derby and needed a rest.
Splain me this. At CD they came home in 53 & change and Alex who looked like a probable winner in midstretch to me couldn\'t hold off two longshots. He beat everbody he figured to have to beat but he couldn\'t close the deal against two horses who weren\'t doing all that much. Why?
If you choose to respond please try not to use the word \"bounce\".
CtC, only a formula horse will beat Alex, if he isn\'t already broken down !!!!
ps. anybody here think Alex can\'t go 1 1/2 !!!!
Bally, Alex did the Texas t-step in the Derby...I posted they both could have died this day, never expecting this !!!
afleet alex will get a huge beyer, probably 116 or so would why he not back up off of it, and at a 1 1/2? Also throw in he will be 4/5 if bellamy road is not in the race.
nice call spa. you\'ve been touting him since the derby. all others are just copycats. ;-]
I don\'t know about that, but wacth out for Buzzard Bay. Take your 3.80 to win on AA in the bel. not to say I won\'t have him in a back up ex. with BB.
Bally Ache wrote:
> Splain me this. At CD they came home in 53 & change and Alex
> who looked like a probable winner in midstretch to me couldn\'t
> hold off two longshots. He beat everbody he figured to have to
> beat but he couldn\'t close the deal against two horses who
> weren\'t doing all that much. Why?
Thats a very complicated question and it could have been luck as much as anything that bailed Alex bettors out in the Preakness. When Alex didn\'t go down in that circumstance theres something besides logic impacting those bets.
-I\'ve believed for some time that Alex had the potential to be the best horse of the crop and even good horses have off days. (Hard not to use \"bounce\" there) He was favored in the Preakness and that was hard to swallow, but 3-1 figured to get back two previous losing win bets on him too.
-Ascertaining strip bias is the biggest unquantifiable variable for performance figures. Guessing wrong regarding bias will kill you. Guessing right, will accentuate the accuracy of the figures. TGraph makes the best figures on the Triple and prep Races. They don\'t factor bias in the number. You have to adjust for it and know what you\'re doing. Giacomo\'s and Closing Arguments Derby was good, but it was bias aided. Alex ran further against that bias and he clearly regressed (couldn\'t say bounced)in the Derby. Watch the Ark again. The horse that won that Ark will not lose against this crop.
CtC
The most interesting thing I saw on TV coverage today was Ritchey being asked about easing off on 2-a-day training for AA. He said something to the effect of no more of that, we\'re easing off to try to \"improve performance\".
In retrospect that may be telling admission of overly aggressive training up to the Derby with AA coming up just short nearing the wire.
A real bummer if this horse handles the Belmont distance, to have mismanaged a very deserving Triple Crown winner. Absolutely fantastic performance today.
Ritchey has a very good percentage going. He\'s treated Alex like an individual and two a days were part of his routine for the Ark romp and he was doing two a days early at Pimlico.
The talking heads didn\'t like the routine. Who you gonna defer to, a high percentage trainer giving a horse extra attention or the talking heads?
They said Smarty Jones was an athlete, recalling a story about him doing a back flip to kick at a squirrel that irritated him. If folks have been watching, Alex has pulled some physical movements that are eye boggling. Special horses get special treatment.
Theres some good handicap horses out there, but this is a good three year old.
Sounds like Afleet Alex needs a rest after 2 hard races.
Saddlecloth wrote:
> afleet alex will get a huge beyer, probably 116 or so would why
> he not back up off of it, and at a 1 1/2? Also throw in he
> will be 4/5 if bellamy road is not in the race.
If Afleet Alex gets more than a 105, the Beyer guys are really reaching. His race was about the same as Zackocity\'s yesterday by the clock.
EDIT:
I forgot when doing figures that I have a built in 5 point downward adjustment for 1 3/16 races at Pimlico from the Beyer scale. I don\'t know why, but they always seem too high. That said, I would have guessed 110 for the Beyer. I hear they actually gave him a 112. I\'ll stick with my 105.
Post Edited (05-22-05 06:07)
Alex also lost in the neighborhood of 2-4 lengths on the momentum interruption. Its hard to say with certainty how much until we view the race a few more times. Conceding that the lost margin can\'t be scored a 110 appears about right. Zakocity is a good handicap horse, but the pace and \"closing\" fraction in the Preakness were better. Even on the interruption Alex\'s raw time looks to be less than 1.48.8 for 9 marks. Beyer missed on Zakocity too.
The amazing thing to me was not so much that AA won (I made his chances similar to CA, HF, and GG), it\'s how terribly all those other horses ran.
All year long I\'ve thought that AA was a little better at shorter distances. Therefore I thought he might appreciate 9.5F a little more than 10F. I still don\'t know if I\'m right about that, but if I am you would think he would be vulnerable at 12F in 3 weeks (especially given his running style).
However, it now looks like the crop is in such shambles he might be able to win regardless if I am right or wrong unless somebody new blossoms very quickly.
If you\'re going to factor in the momentum interruption you better factor in the adrenaline rush the horse was running on at the end.
I\'ve seen it more than once at the race track. The early speed horse stumbles at the start of the race seemingly dooming his chances and then gathers himself and comes flying at the end to get there or almost get there. And everybody starts talking about how what a lucky break it was to discover that the speed horse really wants to be a closer. Wrong. The horse that stumbled was running out of his head on an adrenaline rush.
Yesterday is a little bit different in that Afleet Alex was going to win anyway. But he probably could have run two miles on the fear that was pumping through him after the incident.
The Crop is Good. The Fab Four didn\'t just vaporize.
Greeley\'s hasn\'t recovered from the Illinois Derby, those two tardy breaks are evidence enough for some that he\'s still not quite right. Stute wanted to take him home, so thats revealing. Still, he was a big 2nd Key for me on his back number and internal Derby explosiveness.
Bandini will make noise if he gets back
Bellamani ran a big, big Wood, though he appears a bit one dimensional.
High Limit ran a big Preakness. Those were HOT fractions at Pimlico for 3YO\'s going that distance. If Going Wild doesn\'t engage him like that, High Limit Certainly gets fourth and probably third.
High Fly never picked up a foot and in retrospect those that bet on him ought to be embarrassed that on the Derby pace and trip we even considered him. He\'ll be back though.
Closing Argument got the benefit of bias Derby Day and all you can say is he too bounced. Sounds like the owners sold an interest when the selling was good. Timing is everything.
Who else was there? Noble Causeway..nahhhh Wilko...nahhhhh Sun King?.......well he got lucky to finish where he did, but he gasping late with no excuse.
Hoarse, if he was adrenaline rushing, the adrenalin started kicking in on the rail midway through the turn.
Post Edited (05-22-05 11:19)
CTC,
I was talking about the crop being in shambles for the Belmont.
Bellamy Road and Bandini are both nice horses, but their current status is a question mark.
>High Limit ran a big Preakness. Those were HOT fractions at Pimlico for 3YO\'s going that distance.<
He was OK at best.
I made the pace was \"mildly fast\" for Grade 1 3YOs. It was probably too fast for him though because it\'s pretty clear now that he\'s not that good unless he gets loose in a soft pace. Scrappy T was right there and he finished well.
Past biases or not, fast paces or not, CA, HF, and GG all ran like crap yesterday relative to their Derby and other preps.
Post Edited (05-22-05 11:43)
CTC,
In one of those you\'ll never know the answer to the question is this: Had Afleet Alex put away Scrappy T as easily as it looked like he was going to, would he have persevered to the wire?
Last year Smart Jones did and more than one pundit has claimed that Elliot\'s decision cost Smarty the Belmont.
After the incident he didn\'t have much choice. the horse was completely wired. And probably ran the last sixteenth faster than he would have under normal circumstances.
Yes, anyone beaten double digit lengths in yesterday\'s race hardly ran a good race!
Afleet Alex is the only horse that can apparently run decent races back to back, or even 2 out of 3.
This is what happens this time of year. The grind of the preps and the Triple Crown races themselves takes a toll.
Thats another reason to favor Alex. Those two a days certainly put some real bottom in him and Ritchey was thinking triple crown trail with that routine. Its not gonna work out for a TC winner, but for the missed conditioning of the Rebel he\'s got the best foundation.
Scrappy got beat off a layoff with a slipped saddle to Bellamania. He\'s many lengths better now and Alex just beat him worse. Scrappy T. is now number 2. They can make a whole lot of money with him if they dodge Alex.
No way is Scrappy #2 ahead of Bellamy Road. The horse was cooked five wide on an insane pace. If Scrappy gets that trip he might run last.
where is Declan\'s Moon?
Well, Bellamania was wide in the Derby, but Wide was very good. Unless Bellamania can work an isolated front end run Scrappy is gonna have his number next. The Wood was a complete Toss. Scrappy was a boy without a gun in the Wood. He\'s a man with a rifle now. Scrappy lost a good deal on that final turn as well.
Scrappy T is a healthy 3yo who has tons of room for improvement.I\'m not sure if Bailes is the right guy to get it all out of him,but he has done a nice job gradually bringing him up to this point.
If you pay attention to how the horses look pre race and you should-this was a very healthy feeling good animal pre Withers and Preakness.No visible sweat-shiny coat-good energy-tail up off the body from the time he was saddled until he went into the gate.He moves good over the ground but even before the Preakness he\'s not so smooth in the stretch with lead changes,not paying attention etc.Could be he\'s distance challenged or maybe he\'s not quite mature mentally.
Need to get Dominguez off him.I like Ramon,but you can\'t wallop that horse with all your might in the ribs coming off the turn like that.The trainer seems to think the horse shuts off some when he makes the lead and is unfocused.Dominguez was riding him the first time and thought he could blow the race open coming off the turn.I think Ramon got a little excited thinking he was going to win the race and whacked him good to get him to focus and open up at the top of the stretch.He had no clue AA was right behind him.Bad judgement and careless riding.That horse didn\'t bolt because of the crowd noise.
What a ridiculous statement, again.
Bellamy Road beat Scrappy T. by 17 lengths in the Wood. The \"slipped saddle\" is not noticeable in the replay, and thinking it cost him more than a couple lengths is bogus.
AA beat Scrappy by 5.
Somehow you call that AA beating him worse than Bellamy.
And you also call High Limit\'s race \"big\". Gimme a break. He got beat by 12 lengths. You call that \"big\"?
These are young three year olds trying real ground for the first time on both tough and rushed preps. Asking a horse to run .46 and 1.10.3 at Pimlico and hang in there til the very end is a tall order. Pimlico Saturday sure as hell wasn\'t Aqueduct on April 9th.
Bobby Frankel said High Limit would have won if Going Wild didn\'t ruin his parade. Woudn\'t go that far, but he certainly cost him third.
Scrappy blew his rhythm in the last Preakness turn too. When yours truly stated Scrappy would beat Bellamania in a match race at 8.5 marks it was serious. Now, he\'ll beat him at whatever distance Bellamania\'s connections propose. The question is can he beat him in say the Haskell or Jim Dandy? Thats going to depend upon pace. Bellamania is a hostage to pace. Scrappy is not. You gotta love courageous Fit to Fights and Sunny\'s Halo was entirely underrated. This horse is a pure gamer. He\'s the best Fit to Fight yet.
\"The Crop is Good. The Fab Four didn\'t just vaporize\".
The crop sucks and the fab four remain the greatest band of all time.
No way Alex gets a mile and a half. I suspect Sun King will be the wise guy horse in the Belmont, which at this point should be reduced from a mile and a half to a mile to accomadate all these friggin milers.
This is a good crop.
Bandini and Alex are diamonds in the rough.
Bellamania is not a bad horse they just need to run him in the right spots.
Greeley\'s stays sound, he sweeps the Four year old races in California next year.
Scrappy is gonna make over a million dollars before the end of September.
The Terrific two (formerly fab four) were overrated too. They were Bella/Beatlemania to the Stones Afleet Alex. Even drunk and falling down the Stones were always a better show.
But lets talk horseracing. Who is gonna beat Afleet in the run for the carnations with no pressure on the stable?
and
Lets talk the Met Mile and really slaughtering the heavy head.
If not Bailes then who? Maybe Zito or D. Wayne? No, wait didn\'t Baffert have a cold spring with his 3yo crop. Certainly not Pletcher. At least he wisely skipped the Preakness with his bunch. Give Bailes credit for entering Scrappy in a race where he thought the horse could do something.
I would not be so quick to give Bailes any credit. After all, his horse, running in a grade 1 race reacted to a left hand whip by one of the leading jocks in the country just like a piece of crap maiden claimer.
Mo, do really think Alex will not run the 1 1/2 ???? He\'s trained to run from Vegas to LA.....Rose must wait and wait and wait, then light Alex up. It can\'t get better than this !!!!! Is there a chanch Bailey screws up the Belmont like last year?
Yeah man, I mean these are garbage cans, IMO. AA couldn\'t carry Alysheba\'s tack to the paddock, and look what happened to Alysheba in the Belmont. AA winning the Preakness was the most logical outcome for me in a bad race, but I wasn\'t betting on it. In fact, I abstained. (Busy loosing a photo to a blind horse in the Pim Special)
The over/under for the final time in the Belmont is.... whatever it is, I\'ll take the over.
Looks like Alex would have run about a 1.54.2 without the incident. Thats real racehorse time.
If Spectacular Bid can lose the Belmont, any horse can lose it. Bid, though more than capable of the distance moved early with an inexperienced jockey. The same thing happened to Smarty Jones, though Smarty did some of it himself. Alex is not that kind of horse and he\'s got deep resevoirs of female family stamina. I know I said the same thing about Funny Cide, but the pace scenario is key here. Alex is perfect, Alex is sweet, Carnations for Alex, the horse can\'t be beat.