Between the complications of extreme pace, rough trips, a track on which it certainly wasn\'t advantageous to be inside, and the few clinkers that often occur on Derby day by horses that then rebound, the race was a mess.
My take on the Preakness is that you should more or less throw out the Derby performance for virtually everyone that ran poorly, but give credit to anyone you believe ran a new top that day.
The analysis from there should just be adjusted for the fact that the race is 1/16 of a mile shorter (which could be slightly advantageous to a few horses that were more suspect at 10F) and for the fact that there is less quality speed, no pure rabbit, and there will certainly be a hightened sensitivity to pace by the jocks considering the fiasco in KY.
These factors will certainly help a few horses in Maryland that had little chance in KY going in.
In no special order.
IMO, despite an advantageous trip, Giacomo did improve a bit and run fairly well in the Derby. He had a great workout line coming into the race and was disadvantaged by the pace/trip in a few races in CA. So it was not shocking to me to see him run a little better. It was shocking to me to see ALL the faster horses either not run well or get caught up in the pace and allow him to win.
I believe Closing Argumemt also ran a career best - which was also not unexpected due to the interruptions to his training leading into the BG. He may have even been 1 race short of his best in the Derby. I didn\'t like him at 10F in a race that looked like it would develop the way it did, but he shocked me. He was fairly close to that fast pace very early before dropping back a bit and finishing OK. He ran a new speed figure top. It was a very good performance.
I will evaluate virtually everyone else out of the Derby using my opinions of their ability off prior races.
IMO, that makes horses like High Fly and Greely\'s Galaxy very tough.
I think 10F was not the optimum distance for Afleet Alex. So I think he will appreciate the slightly shorter distance. That makes him a contender (but a probable underlay).
High Limit will be helped dramatically if he can secure the lead or a stalking position off some cheap speed and the fractions are average. Pluse the shorter distance can\'t hurt.
I didn\'t think Noble Causway was as good as High Fly going into the Derby, (the FL Derby was a fast pace and he couldn\'t beat him). He didn\'t do much running in the Derby. So I\'ll have to pass unless the price is huge.
I have no idea what\'s going on with Sun King, but I\'ll also have to pass unless the price is huge despite the fact that he has shown flashes.
Scrappy T had a nice easy pace scenario in his last against weaker horses, but he has some ability.
I expect an honestly run Preakness from a pace perspective. There are enough speed/pressers in the race to keep the fractions honest. I can\'t imagine things getting out of hand again because everyone will be thinking about the Derby. It\'s actually probably more likely that everyone falls asleep and allows someone like High Limit (who few are taking seriously) to get the lead and dictate the fractions - which would be the optimum scenario for him (a complete reversal of the last race).
This race is all about price.
IMHO, it\'s a wide open Preakness.
Post Edited (05-19-05 11:35)
I like SCRAPPY T, and i like the 3/4 pt top off the one 2 back, 3rd race in form cycle yields a new top on saturday. Hopefully enough to win it, most certainly my key in exotics.
From a pace perspective, CH is probably correct.
It should not be the type of pace that throws the numbers out of whack. That being said, some interpretation is still required.
SUN KING has achieved his better numbers at 1 1/16th or less. So far the longer he goes, the lower his number becomes. Yes he did run over a dead rail, but I doubt very much that he would have sustained his run even if he was on the better part of the track. This horse is and always was overrated and has never given any hints that he is capable of running Grade 1 numbers over a classic distance.
HIGH LIMIT-- Will obviously be a pace factor. Now it becomes a question of how much do you excuse his dead last performance due to the rail and his cuts.
This is probably HIGH FLY\'s race to lose. Inside speed, can track and pounce, and may be set to improve again. Will probably be overbet, however. Fair odds are 6-1, I\'m thinking he may be 7/2 or 4-1.
The Derby was such a grueling race that I will toss AFLEET ALEX (who should be given a rest) and CLOSING ARGUMENT who ran the race of his life off of very little seasoning.
I\'ll take a stab that WILKO is set for a career best (I am concerned over the bleeding through the lasix) and I\'ll get nearly 15-1 to find out. Use with HIGH FLY and hope for the best.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
I forget to mention Wilko. I don\'t like him as much as some of the others, but I see no reason he can\'t run well.
Right now I\'m also leaning a little towards High Fly as the most probable winner. (not sure what the right price is or if we will get it). His Derby was fine and I thought his Fl Derby was better than it looks considering he sat right off a fast pace and finished well. He should get a good trip here and will probably like this distance better than 10F. If the prices are decent I\'ll probably use him, Greeley, and CA.
I think AA is a good and consistent horse that will appreciate a slightly shorter race, but at 5-2 IMO you have to try to beat him.
Post Edited (05-19-05 15:40)
Most places Wilko wouldn\'t even be allowed to race, I think I\'ll pass. Why is he allowed to race in only two weeks after bleeding through Lasix, anyway?
What\'s the ruling, if any, on that?
Would Dollase run him back so soon if the bleeding was significant?
I think you have to put some faith in the trainer on this one.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
but beyer, it was only a \"little\" blood.
i have always been on this guy but I think its time for me to find a new ship.
I still think there is a fast pace in here, to many horses have a natural style up front. I think the best of the E/P types is High Fly, but I have serious concerns that this distance is to far. Greelys Galaxy looks like the wise guy horse and it would not shock me to see him at 7/1 or so. Maybe this is a race to take a flyer on a horse who did not run at all, like a Noble Causeway.
beyerguy wrote:
> Most places Wilko wouldn\'t even be allowed to race, I think
> I\'ll pass. Why is he allowed to race in only two weeks after
> bleeding through Lasix, anyway?
Saddlecloth,
I am with you on the pace of this race. Not sure why everybody thinks the jockey \"awareness\" of speed after the Derby, will impact this race more than the actual running styles of the horses.
Going Wild has to go to the front. He isn\'t a \"rabbit\", but he might as well be one. High Limit gets blinkers and Frankel probably realizes after two races of \"rating\", this horse wants/needs the lead. Scrappy T. is coming out of an elongated sprint and has speed. Galloping Grocer has natural speed, and could be on or pressing the lead. Then you have Greeley\'s Galaxy and High Fly who do their best running right off the lead, pressing. Closing Argument maybe right off them.
Plenty of gas in this race.
For me, I will split my tickets on this one. For half of them, I will stand by Jerry\'s negative 2 on Greeley\'s Galaxy in Illinois and throw out his Derby, looking for a big race. The other half, I will be stubboron with Noble Causeway, as I liked him after the Florida Derby, thought he was almost fast enough with a top of \"1\" and if the speed gets too crazy, maybe he closes well this and runs his race.
I agree that the pace could be a little hotter than people expect. From the 2 hole, with a lot of decent speed between him and the two flyers on the outside (High Limit and Going Wild), Bailey will probably put High Fly into the race early to avoid getting shuffled back. Given High Fly\'s natural speed, High Limit and Going Wild are then going to have to hustle if they want to clear him going into the first turn. Things could snowball from there (despite the hot Derby pace being fresh in the jockeys\' minds).
jimbo,
\" Not sure why everybody thinks the jockey \"awareness\" of speed after the Derby, will impact this race more than the actual running styles of the horses.\"
I think so because a few of the speeds are not one dimensional. They can sit just off it. The other reason is that I\'ve seen this pattern of pace reversal before. Everyone that has a horse than can sit just off will be under instructions to not be suicidal.
class,
I am surprised to see your view on this, since you were dubbed the \"pace martyr\" in the past... :)
Seriously though, I agree on pace reversals in general, but High Limit and Going Wild have outside posts and no shot to win without the lead. THey are not \"horses that can sit off\", especially with the blinkers on High Limit.
At this point I see Going Wild as so terrible if I were riding High Limit I\'d try to get a trip similar to the one he got in the Blue Grass.
If GW wants the lead I\'d let him have it, sit just off him, let him collapse on his own and then take over. If GW doesn\'t break well or doesn\'t get aggressive I\'d go.
I think everyone else is capable of sitting just off those two without forcing the issue.
I felt much differently about it when Spanish Chestnut was in the race specifically to set a fast pace and Bellamy Road was another high quality speed in the mix. In a race like that, there was so much darn speed and an even bigger field trying to get and maintain position. I couldn\'t see any way the pace wasn\'t hot.
Probably a good way to look at the Preakness pace is to assume it will either be mildly fast or neutral and focus on horses that can deal with either of those. I can\'t see them crawling and I can\'t see another suicide mission.
Post Edited (05-19-05 17:36)
i really have no faith in the morning line on this race so my actual interest will likely change dramatically.
that being said.
i\'m taking a big stand against afleet alex. i do have him as my most likely winner, but nowhere near 5/2. he\'s 1/5 over a mile. terrible post. if he wins at 5/2-3/1, then i\'ll just give congrats to spa for touting him since the derby.
i\'ll be spreading far and wide in this race in the pick four. somewhat lighter on high fly and closing argument. somewhat heavier on greeley\'s galaxy and scrappy t.
As I line up the chairs on the deck of the Titanic, only one horse comes to mind...Afleet Alex will win the race. If you hate your money bet against him. The derby trip was much worse than reported. I\'m taking what is a given and will try to hit the super with a 5 horse box.
On the question of pace: I do not believe in the concept of pace handicapping. If a horse runs within himself and does not initiate oxygen debt, he\'ll run forever.
I like Alex a lot, but I like to bet against horses in the Preakness who tired in the stretch in the Derby after having had the lead. Lion Heart, Peace Rules and Congaree come to mind as recent examples (although they were all closer to the pace then Alex)
LH and Peace Rules barely hung on for 4th at Pimlico. I think Alex may do something similar....then he\'ll come back and win the Haskell.
GREELEYS GALAXY
My approach to the Preakness is predicated upon two propositions:
Proposition 1 - A line should be drawn through the Derby since its results were predicated upon an atypical pace scenario, injuries to top contenders and rough trips for several entrants.
Proposition 2 - The general disadvantage for outside posts in the Preakness will be made worse in light of the running styles of many of the entrants. More precisely, the presence of so many speed horses and pace pressers will likely create a tightly packed herd as they enter the first turn. This will force outside speed horses to use energy to clear; others will have no alternative but to assume an extremely wide stalking position; and still others will be forced to pull further back than either their running styles or normal strategy would otherwise dictate.
The acceptance of the two above-stated propositions would lead to the exclusion of both Afleet Alex and Giacomo. Concomitantly, this approach would value inside horses who had good pre-Derby form. Accordingly, I will be boxing the following entrants:
High Fly
Noble Causeway
Greeley\'s Galaxy
P.S. Given my Derby analysis that was posted on this board, I will be including Wilko in my expanded tickets despite his outside post. Such a divergence from my current logic must be made to avoid the undue pain that would be caused should he win without me.
Post Edited (05-19-05 19:02)
h.fly to win
greely---alex[til he collapses]---h.limit[better be a price]---scrappy---
PARTYpokerON!
albany wrote:
> Proposition 1 - A line should be drawn through the Derby since
> its results were predicated upon an atypical pace scenario,
> injuries to top contenders and rough trips for several
> entrants.
Hard to out factor Closing Argument on the above though
> Proposition 2 - The general disadvantage for outside posts in
> the Preakness will be made worse in light of the running styles
> of many of the entrants. More precisely, the presence of so
> many speed horses and pace pressers will likely create a
> tightly packed herd as they enter the first turn. This will
> force outside speed horses to use energy to clear; others will
> have no alternative but to assume an extremely wide stalking
> position; and still others will be forced to pull further back
> than either their running styles or normal strategy would
> otherwise dictate.
Ok, sounds reasonable
> The acceptance of the two above-stated propositions would lead
> to the exclusion of both Afleet Alex and Giacomo.
This is where it departs from reasonable. Assuming your tossing Giacomo on proposition one, why should two Close/Stalk types be disadvantaged by Speed/Pressing types?
> Concomitantly, this approach would value inside horses who had
> good pre-Derby form. Accordingly, I will be boxing the
> following entrants:
>
> High Fly
> Noble Causeway
> Greeley\'s Galaxy
Even though the \"clearing speed\" is further outside?
> P.S. Given my Derby analysis that was posted on this board, I
> will be including Wilko in my expanded tickets despite his
> outside post. Such a divergence from my current logic must be
> made to avoid the undue pain that would be caused should he win
> without me.
Wilko hasn\'t developed a quarter point. He didn\'t bleed last and he showed nothing at any point.
spa wrote:
> As I line up the chairs on the deck of the Titanic, only one
> horse comes to mind...Afleet Alex will win the race. If you
> hate your money bet against him. The derby trip was much worse
> than reported.
Alex bounced, but he also had a subtlely bad trip. I\'m worried about him from a form perspective only.
mikemd wrote:
> i\'m taking a big stand against afleet alex. i do have him as
> my most likely winner, but nowhere near 5/2. he\'s 1/5 over a
> mile. terrible post. if he wins at 5/2-3/1, then i\'ll just
> give congrats to spa for touting him since the derby.
For races over a mile hes also (5) 1-2-1 with a lung infection when he missed the board and suddenly stopped at the aerobic mark of the Rebel. I\'ve tried to warn folks about that distance thing. You can\'t say I haven\'t tried. He could lose and miss the money, but its gonna be on form if he does.
classhandicapper wrote:
> If GW wants the lead I\'d let him have it, sit just off him, let
> him collapse on his own and then take over. If GW doesn\'t break
> well or doesn\'t get aggressive I\'d go.
Probably the instructions from Frankel
> I felt much differently about it when Spanish Chestnut was in
> the race specifically to set a fast pace and Bellamy Road was
> another high quality speed in the mix. In a race like that,
> there was so much darn speed and an even bigger field trying to
> get and maintain position. I couldn\'t see any way the pace
> wasn\'t hot.
Bellamania wasn\'t even that close to the pace. The reason was he couldn\'t catch it.
> Probably a good way to look at the Preakness pace is to assume
> it will either be mildly fast or neutral and focus on horses
> that can deal with either of those. I can\'t see them crawling
> and I can\'t see another suicide mission.
Agreed
classhandicapper wrote:
> I think so because a few of the speeds are not one dimensional.
> They can sit just off it. The other reason is that I\'ve seen
> this pattern of pace reversal before. Everyone that has a horse
> than can sit just off will be under instructions to not be
> suicidal.
High Limit with blinkers inside of Going Wild is sent aggressively for the lead. If he can get the jump and free wheel to the first turn and only hear Going Wild he has a chance to be around for a long, long time. Going Wild WANTS the lead. Lukas has to figure \"put him on the lead\". Theres you\'re pace scenario. Scrappy, High Fly and Galloping Grocer will rate off that wing ding. A bad break for one of the two, the other inherits the wind. Bailey will NOT use High Fly early unless the one hole looks golden by race time.
beyerguy wrote:
> Most places Wilko wouldn\'t even be allowed to race, I think
> I\'ll pass. Why is he allowed to race in only two weeks after
> bleeding through Lasix, anyway?
The report was \"traces of blood\" and a fair amount of track dirt swallowed. The \"bleeding\" was very mininal and the trainer did state he didn\'t want to mislead anyone. Wilko is the proverbial grinder and the problem is he\'s still a small horse and others have become explosive and to this point he has not.
jbelfior wrote:
>
> SUN KING has achieved his better numbers at 1 1/16th or less.
> So far the longer he goes, the lower his number becomes. Yes he
> did run over a dead rail, but I doubt very much that he would
> have sustained his run even if he was on the better part of the
> track. This horse is and always was overrated and has never
> given any hints that he is capable of running Grade 1 numbers
> over a classic distance.
He hasn\'t shown a solid number at two turns. It could be circumstances but you\'re into the fifth two turn race now. Lots of horses were looking good on Hallandale\'s one turn miles. Prado off pretty much seals the deal, regardless of whether Zito wouldn\'t let him have Noble Causeway.
> HIGH LIMIT-- Will obviously be a pace factor. Now it becomes a
> question of how much do you excuse his dead last performance
> due to the rail and his cuts.
Don\'t forget Mr. Maryland.
> This is probably HIGH FLY\'s race to lose. Inside speed, can
> track and pounce, and may be set to improve again. Will
> probably be overbet, however. Fair odds are 6-1, I\'m thinking
> he may be 7/2 or 4-1.
Should be well poised behind High Limit and Going wild.
>
> The Derby was such a grueling race that I will toss AFLEET ALEX
> (who should be given a rest) and CLOSING ARGUMENT who ran the
> race of his life off of very little seasoning.
Not a wise move.
> I\'ll take a stab that WILKO is set for a career best (I am
> concerned over the bleeding through the lasix) and I\'ll get
> nearly 15-1 to find out.
That won\'t be enough
thanks for adding to the discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Many of you will think I\'m coo-coo for Cocoa Puffs with this one. I think he might be a gate crasher. Last three figs
Malibu Moon.....5.50.........3.50........6.25
High Fly........3.50.........1.00........6.25
Noble C.........5.50.........1.75.......7.50
Greeleys.......4.75.........-2.00.......3.75
Scrappy T......2.75..........5.00.......2.00
Hals Im........9.50..........6.00.......4.00
Closing........3.25..........3.50.......1.25
Galloping G....4.50..........8.50.......3.00
Wilko..........4.00..........2.75.......5.00
Sun King.......5.50..........2.75.......10.00
High Limit.....1.00..........1.00.......24.75
Afleet Al.......11.50.......-2.00.......2.50
Giacomo........4.50..........5.00.......0.50
Going W........15.75.........10.50......15.50
H-I is suddenly improving by leaps and bounds. Change in bits, perhaps he had a myectomy a few weeks back? Who knows for certain, but something major changed. Worked a 5f bullet at Crc.
DP = 8-2-10-6-0 (26) DI = 1.36 CD = 0.46 This one has plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree, tho his races don\'t seem to indicate as much.
Hal\'s Image is a 3/4 brother to millionaire Hal\'s Hope
His sheet is very reminiscent of Sarava [70-1] Belmont winner, who was an improving horse a few pts slower than the better ones. This isn\'t a spectacular 3yo class, with some ugly lines coming into the race and coventional wisdom says no, he\'s too slow[likely true? ha ha ha], but I\'ll give him a whirl in here, an improving horse, with the right trip, at a huge price.
Good luck!
Chuckles:
Closing Argument has been excluded from my top three because Proposition 1 requires a line to be drawn through his Derby performance and his pre-Derby form was sub-par. He has also drawn outside of my top picks. Closing Argument will, however, be included in my expanded tickets.
As to your second point, I believe that outside horses who are \"close/stalk\" types will be seriously disadvantaged since I envision the field to be deeply stacked (i.e., not strung out) going into the first turn. This will force the close/stalk outside horses to go wide or pull back and thereby lose position.
I am relatively unconcerned with outside speed even if they are able to clear. In my view, it will take too much energy to both clear the field from an outside post and be around at the finish.
As we both know from experience, I am including Wilko on my expanded tickets as a defensive play in light of my previous views. There is some dispute as to whether he bled in the Derby, but I think it is clear that he was somewhat impeded in mid-stretch. That was a bad point in the race to run into trouble since the closing fractions were slow. The argument that Wilko had a troubled trip or bled in the Derby is inferentially supported by the fact that he had beaten the winner and fourth place finisher in the SA Derby. In any event, I still think Wilko has a decent shot, but I acknowledge that he\'ll have to get very lucky from his post position.
Thanks for your input.
Afleet Alex is a terrible bet at 5/2 out of the 12 post. Look at his line, no rebound here, bad spacing, too many races, mismanaged horse going the wrong way. Should be rested/laid up after this.
I think the race stinks and won\'t be playing. Besides, bugling season starts tomorrow and I have a double shift.
If I was riding High Limit, I\'d ride the race as if Going Wild wasn\'t even in the race. I\'d slow things down behind me knowing full well that GW will hit a brick wall going into the far turn. I think JDB will rate High Fly today. The pace from the Derby is ALWAYS freshly in the minds of the riders for the \'Ness.
RICH wrote:
> Afleet Alex is a terrible bet at 5/2 out of the 12 post.
Agreed that 5-2 is very light odds off the form considerations.
The post may in fact help him. Don\'t expect the same \"inside\" effort. It looks like he wants to be outside.
> Look
at his line, no rebound here, bad spacing, too many races,
Four races this year: Sprint, sick Non Effort, Lifetime Top, Game Derby. Some could view that as a classic X,O pattern working.
> mismanaged horse going the wrong way. Should be rested/laid up
> after this.
Nothing mismanaged about this horse at all. Good luck with Scrappy. You\'re right about that one, hes not a bad horse.
Post Edited (05-20-05 11:29)
Greeley\'s Galaxy did not get any mention in Privman\'s cover story in the drf. He was over 20-1 in the derby and didn\'t crack the top 10. He has low profile connections and loses a well known jock to an excellent under the radar jock that has won 2 BC races in the past 2 years. He should sit a nice trip regardless of pace assuming the op at CD was a freak.
Two Ill Derby winners in the past 3 years have gone on to win G1s at classic distances and the TGs say this one is faster.
He worked three furlongs in 34.80 today. Wont that not show up in the form?
Is he 7-1 or 15-1? I guess we\'ll find out in the double pool today. Regardless, I don\'t know who else looks like a more likely winner.
Good luck to all.
GALLOPING GROCER may get pushed into the lead. Why would they rate him when that has not worked in the past?
This will not be a :45...1:09 deal, but I would be very suprised to see :47...1:11;
we\'ll go with :46...1:10 2/5. So who can stalk, pounce and finish???
Good Luck,
Joe B.
None of these horses can finish when the pace is solid.Its the worst bunch of 3yo\'s(as of May 20th)I\'ve ever seen going a distance of ground.A bunch of grinders with zero punch.Scrappy T is reasonably fresh and peaking physically.In an ordinary year he wouldn\'t hit the board,but in this sorry field he has a chance to win it.
Biggee, when Scrappy hits the 1/8th pole,please start dialing 911.
I wanted to see what some Tgraph players think of this horse. Obviously a contender but I view him with some skepticism. Was there a horse in the race who had to work harder to earn his \"1\" on the sheet? Now he must move forward because I bet this race goes faster then the derby, and looking at the tgraph pattern he is only 1/5 to do so. Combine that with he was 70/1 last time and will be around 5/1 this time is it a good bet at all.
Call me crazy, but value wise I just cant see this horse moving forward two weeks after that monster effort.
gvido,
Pass the milk and pass those Cocoa Puffs over here. Why not? We just witnessed a Derby where a 50-1 shot ran down a 71-1. Why does this race have to make any more sense? Maybe we\'re in for some sort of world turned upside down year with the three year olds.
Yes, he\'s one of the slower ones coming in. Yes, the four could be the end of the line. But another two point move, a fresh batch of off races from several of the logical contenders, and he\'s got a shot for a piece of it. And I don\'t like a lot else in here, so why not throw him on some tickets? A lot of ifs and buts, but maybe Hal\'s Image turns the ifs and buts to candy and nuts and I\'ll have a Merry Preakness.
Albany,
I agree with your analysis. It was exactly what I was thinking, although I may use Giacomo or Closing Argument instead of Wilko on the stretchout ticket (super)
NC Tony
Anything I say must be filtered thru the fact that I dismissed Eddington yesterday.
Today I feel even more strongly that High Fly is a toss. So, if he wins I\'ll in effect have a reverse Pim Spec.-Preakness double.
I\'m trying to talk myself into Scrappy T. In doing that I went back to last year and noticed his races at Del. Compare them to High Limit\'s races at Del. Given that he (HL) no doubt didn\'t beat much, those two races are still outstanding for a 2 yr. old starting out. Maybe they should have left this horse with Tony Dutrow.
A lot of people, including me, think that Afleet Alex should stay in the barn.
Haven\'t seen anyone liking Giacomo.
I like the much maligned Giacomo enough to use him.
I\'ll box these three in the exacta/tri, with heaviest action on this order of finish:
Closing Argument
Giacomo
Greeley\'s Galaxy
If the track plays like Friday, Giacomo would deserve consideration.
The outside post has to cost him ground unless he finds a way to tuck in. Saving ground is going to be far more important this time. That wasn\'t a Derby winning ride last time and if given again it won\'t be a Preakness winning ride this time. Essentially, he\'s got Derby impediments without Derby bias. Clearly a beneficiary of Bounce last, but give him full credit for a 0.2 and he\'s a bounce candidate himself this time. Call him closer to a 2.2 and he may not bounce but theres quite of few horses poised to run faster than that:
Alex
Greeleys
High Fly
High Limit
Scrappy T
Noble Causeway
Bounce, Pace and Bias got Giacomo home last and even then he barely got home. He\'s gonna have to be 12-1 for a second look.
NFW
p.s. Hoss, whats your friend say. Does he have any stellar insight this time or is he sticking with Giacomo.
Post Edited (05-21-05 11:04)
CtC, I\'ll take your first 4 and drop Scrappy/Noble for Closing Argument. The later, used the Derby as a prep!!!!
Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
>
> p.s. Hoss, whats your friend say. Does he have any stellar
> insight this time or is he sticking with Giacomo.
>
Chuckles-
He\'s sticking with him, and he\'s not one to form emotional attachments. He\'d jump off in a minute if he saw something more attractive.
FWIW, here are the somewhat humorous comments he sent me:
I am very angry that I have been labled a \"Hat Pin Annie\" by the national press based on the events in Louisville 2 weeks ago. I guess if the columnists and talking heads never mentioned a horse, and it won, then it must have been a fluke. (I timed the Tivo of the NBC broadcast and 12 seconds were spent on Giacomo in the hour pre-race coverage).
If Giacomo lost that race by a length, it would have been labled a bad trip, and he\'d probably be a 4-1 second choice, instead of a 6-1 fourth choice as winner of the Derby.
I simply state that this is an improving horse, at the top of a form cycle, in capable hands, who has the right to continue moving forward after a horrid trip (8w lane, all out) in the Derby. My suspicion is that if he gets a clear run, there is another gear.
Giacomo, again.
the track, at least after two races looks VERY kind to speed, lets check out the third as two of the speed squarely look like potential regressions to me at 9/2 and 6/1.
My illustration assumes Closing arguement ran closer to 3.2 than 1.2 (factoring bias)
If you give him full faith and credit for a 1.2 the thoropattern would say Closing Argument is a good bet to improve/pair
hossgnat wrote:
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
>
> >
> > p.s. Hoss, whats your friend say. Does he have any stellar
> > insight this time or is he sticking with Giacomo.
> >
>
> Chuckles-
>
> He\'s sticking with him, and he\'s not one to form emotional
> attachments. He\'d jump off in a minute if he saw something
> more attractive.
>
> FWIW, here are the somewhat humorous comments he sent me:
>
> I am very angry that I have been labled a \"Hat Pin Annie\" by
> the national press based on the events in Louisville 2 weeks
> ago. I guess if the columnists and talking heads never
> mentioned a horse, and it won, then it must have been a fluke.
> (I timed the Tivo of the NBC broadcast and 12 seconds were
> spent on Giacomo in the hour pre-race coverage).
Hoss this \"12 second\" rehashing comment seems to be evidence of \"bonding\" but its certainly easy to understand coarsing blood having picked a horse no one else called. I\'ve never picked a 50-1 Derby winner and don\'t ever expect to.
> If Giacomo lost that race by a length, it would have been
> labled a bad trip, and he\'d probably be a 4-1 second choice,
> instead of a 6-1 fourth choice as winner of the Derby.
This little comment here is also indicating some undue attachment
> I simply state that this is an improving horse, at the top of a
> form cycle
He was on top of it Form Cycle for the Derby, granted.
> in capable hands, who has the right to continue
> moving forward
TGraph makes him 22% to Top 51% to top or pair
> after a horrid trip (8w lane, all out) in the
> Derby. My suspicion is that if he gets a clear run, there is
> another gear.
He\'s a grinder that caught a lot of breaks. Another Wide ride like that and sayonara for the exotics. Can\'t see it, but 6-1 or better on a Derby winner might appear enticing.
Post Edited (05-21-05 11:43)
GIACOMO will run 1st or 2nd.
This race is High Fly's to loose – will save a ton of ground relative to the other true contenders, i.e. Noble Causeway, Greeley\'s Galaxy, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex, Wilko, and Giacomo. Plus High Fly is a fighter, and has the #s needed to compete here. Giacomo is for real, but the outside post will be tough to overcome.
The play is to use High Fly over the above mention contenders in the Ex, Tri, & Super. Go heavy with High Fly in the pick-4/Win bet and use above mention contenders on a backup ticket in the pick-4.
spa wrote:
> CtC, I\'ll take your first 4 and drop Scrappy/Noble for Closing
> Argument. The later, used the Derby as a prep!!!!
Spa the closer it gets to race time the more inclined I am to believe you\'re right
Alex
Closing Argument
High Fly
Greeley\'s
High Limit
Scrappy T.
The Derby winner though biggish on win odds is gonna be wrapped up in a lot of exotics and the value in my opinion is beating him out of as much as you can.
The move up by Closing Argument was not extreme and his line looks solid to me. A pair up probably wins today against this bunch.
High Fly was never comfortable in the last
(not many were) but he should get a much improved trip today. The better trip will put him right there at the finish.
Afleet Alex is another that has a solid line to me and will be close but for some reason
I don\'t think he\'s good enough to win one of these big races.
Giacomo may lose too much ground this time but has the running style to be dangerous if
Mike Smith can find the right holes again. The horse is good right now and always gives a good account in his races.
I think the pace will be hot again (not burning hot as the Derby) and the stalkers/closers will reap the rewards.
Best of luck to all!!
bounce?
Saddlecloth, I guess he did bounce from the way he \"did\'nt \" run, although his trainer
has said there was some bleeding according to another post. The Derby is tough on all of them. No doubt Alex was much the best yesterday and was the least affected by the stampede in the Derby.
Looks like CA is going to be rested also.
I\'m amazed at how poorly the \"top\" horses have performed in the last 2 races. It
borders on being pathetic. Alex may turn out to be a good one but the rest look awful.