Four days away. With the tough to rationalize Kentucky Derby results and the questions about which, if any, of the horses that didn\'t run their races in the Derby, rebound in the Preakness, this really becomes a question of getting proper value on any bet in the Preakness. I know that is always important in any race, but I can\'t see taking a short price in this race in particular.
My odds line on what I expect the horses to go off at is below. Looking for feedback on what others think the post time odds will be, as this race seems tough to estimate odds on.
Afleet Alex 3 to 1
High Fly 4 to 1
Giacomo 6 to 1
Closing ARgument 8 to 1
Wilko 8 to 1
Noble Causeway 12 to 1
Greeley\'s Galaxy 12 to 1
Sun King 20 to 1
High Limit 20 to 1
Scrappy T 30 to 1
Galloping Grocer 30 to 1
Malibu Moonshine 30 to 1
Going Wild 50 to 1
Hal\'s Image 5o to 1
Of course, if any odds need to be adjusted down, somebody else must go up. Or vica versa.
thats about right, I doht give noble causeway as much a chance, an maybe have GG a bit closer to 10/1.
i wouldn\'t be surprised to see scrappy t much lower than that. i would have him 4th or 5th favorite.
however, i saw roxy has him at 30/1, so you are probably closer than i am.
[edited to add roxy line]
Post Edited (05-17-05 14:07)
the scrappy t that dawdled on a soft pace and finished fast in his last? I give that horse very little chance when he faces the pace pressure from the likes of high fly.
Saddlecloth
Scrappy T rated very easily stalking slow
fractions in the Withers.Are you sure Dominguez will have him in front of High Fly?
That horse sat 9th for a half in his first race ever going a 1 70 yds.Don\'t be surprised if he ends up following High Fly around the track.
He doesn\'t want the distance.
I agree. SCRAPPY T will not get a 1 3/16.
I keep looking at the Derby replay....some of the horses running on the rail look like they suddenly were shot.
I saw HIGH LIMIT and SUN KING make middle moves....both stopped abruptly. When HIGH FLY and BELLAMY ROAD went to the inside in the stretch run they slowed down quickly...ditto AFLEET ALEX although he did run on hard. He definitely lost second because of where he was.
The wide movers...BUZZARD\'s BAY, CLOSING ARGUMENT, AFLEET ALEX, GIACOMO, ANDROMEDA\'s HERO.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Its very possible he doesn\'t want the last 1/8th of a mile based on past performances.
Its also possible that he\'s been brought along slowly with an eye on peaking May 21st.At double digits and higher I\'ll pay to find out.
I guess cuase he did not pull he rated....my thinking is when a huge pace fugure gets thrown at him and he if he rates like you say he will be 8-10 back, and I dount he closes to victory. The farthest he has been back other then his first start was a half length.