Giacomo bounces
Closing Argument moves forward (Winner?)
Afleet Alex backs up again or pairs his Derby
What do you all say?
I say HIGH FLY follows his pattern and improves to an even better # than his Fla. Derby (perahps a neg #).
Good Luck,
Joe B.
High Fly was my first inclination as soon as I looked at the probables.
Closing Arguement looks like a bonce to me; 2 weeks off following a 2 1/4 pt top with bo
High Fly; my derby key and now have mixed opinions; maybe the tough race did him good but what factor(s) did him in at CD... pace? distance? (lack of) class? can\'t run out of Fla? drug testing? effects finally felt from fast #s in Jan,Feb? fear shorter price with questions still looming, still a new top wouldn\'t shock but niether would another flop
Greeley\'s Galaxy; chance to return to neg #... at a generous price?
FLUSHED--
HIGH FLY...Drug testing???
Are you suggesting that Zito is a move-up trainer??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe
of course not... I\'m suggesting he was a move-up trainer
It\'ll be Afleet alex by 5.........
Be careful Spa,
Sometimes you get the bear, but sometimes the bear gets you............
Afleet Alex is off the board as the chalk. I think Chris or somebody posted here before the derby that AA was more likely to be hurt by the rough campaign and Ritchey\'s training regimen in the Preakness, than in the Derby.
Giacomo fully extended and bearing in.
Closing Argument-chases a ridiculously hot pace battles all the way to the wire and bears out.
Afleet Alex under a drive on the turn and not good enough to pass a 71-1 shot who chased one of the faster paces in Derby history and can\'t hold off the 50-1 plodder who has a loss to Going Wild on his resume in the Sham stakes.I think he\'d have trouble winning the Sir Barton stakes on the undercard at Pimlico by 5 lengths.He\'d do well just to repeat the 2.5 from the Derby.I see him going back even further.
The drifting for the top two doesn\'t bode well especially on short rest.They emptied the tank in the stretch and I see both going backwards despite what the pattern stats might show.
It\'s a good spot to look at one of the also rans or the new shooters.
The training PLUS the Derby will kill off Afleet Alex.
I just realized I\'m going to Disneyworld next weekend and will not be playing the Preakness.
Good luck to all!
HP
HP--
If Disney was really magical it would have simulcasting.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jimbo66 wrote:
> Be careful Spa,
>
> Sometimes you get the bear, but sometimes the bear gets
> you............
>
> Afleet Alex is off the board as the chalk. I think Chris or
> somebody posted here before the derby that AA was more likely
> to be hurt by the rough campaign and Ritchey\'s training regimen
> in the Preakness, than in the Derby.
Well, hard to get very serious about the foregoing. Hard to be real enthusiastic about Alex this time around too though, especially if you think he bounced even more than 4 points (Some of that was factored to be path bias though) Whether a form issue has anything at all to do with the training regime is highly, highy debatable.
Alex ran a sprint, a race where he was sick GOING IN, and a big Ark. He had lots of solid non race groundwork and regression factored that may have taken him as far as he got in the Derby. Alex didn\'t have ideal 3YO foundation and his training in fact may have carried him.
Horses spend too much time in their stalls. Way too much. They are outdoors animals and Ritchey\'s technique, though somewhat novel is attention intensive. I like that. Groundwork strengthens bones and joints. Bandini and Bellamania are down for repair and the more heavily raced Alex just keeps squealing, kicking at his ball and running good races.
He\'s liable to be the favorite though, so taking a shot at him is logical on the Derby bounce. On the training, its downright foolish.
Post Edited (05-13-05 09:27)
Steve Davidowitz said that Afleet Alex looked a little beat up after the race.
What did Steve think of the way High Limit, Bellamania, Bandini and Wilko looked.
\"He\'s liable to be the favorite though, so taking a shot at him is logical on the Derby bounce. On the training, its downright foolish.\"
Chuckles,
It\'s not foolish! The horse has endured the training PLUS the grueling Derby. I posted this BEFORE the race, that the training will catch up with up even more AFTER May 7.
How can you separate the training from the racing? He ran two-a-days PLUS he ran in the Derby. Now he has to go again in two weeks? You can only HOPE he\'s the favorite. I don\'t think he will be.
As has been pointed out AD NAUSEUM they CRAWLED home and he was FLAT AS A PANCAKE in the stretch when he was in position to win the race. In fact, that would be my chart comment, FLAT AS A PANCAKE. And you don\'t think the training MAY have had something to do with it? That he couldn\'t go wailing past the dying speed that was coming home in like, TWO HOURS? (okay, a .54 final half, it just felt like two hours).
Looking at the race beforehand, if ANY of the MAJOR contenders figured to benefit from the pace scenario, wasn\'t it AFLEET ALEX? Wasn\'t he the only one who figured to come from OFF the pace, rather than be close to or stalking it? So they had a hot pace, and here comes AFLEET ALEX in the stretch and he can\'t win in this perfect setup? This tells you the training regimen is SOLID? Betting against the horse because his trainer was killing his horse with two-a-days before the Kentucky Derby is FOOLISH?
When I get back, I\'ll review your seven horse list of Preakness contenders...
HP
HP, I honestly dont see the issue.
Alex obviously bounced. Theres issues as to how much and precisely why he didn\'t win but the bounce is clear.
The foundation was
sprint
sick race
Big Top
That along with poor stretch patch explains why he didnt\' win to me.
Let these guys question the training. To me its a red herring at best and at worst they\'re polarized on its effect.
CTC,
He didn\'t mention anything about anyone else related to how they came out of the race.
I have no strong view on whether AA\'s training etc.. will make him go backwards or not. However, I\'ve always felt this horse would prefer 9F to 10F and I discounted his chances slightly in the Derby because of that.
Anyone think the reason he flattened out a bit was because that last furlong was just a tad more than he can run and deliver a peak performance?
If so, excluding the other issues (just for the moment), maybe he can run another negative number at 1 3/16s if he\'s still sharp.
Its debatable what Alex beat in the Ark, but whats not debatable is that until he was motored down at the wire (pre wire actually) he was increasing the lead on every horse in the field. It was a Bellamania type race from Wide and off the Pace. He did come home in an 11 and change, regardless of the downhill debate.
Alex got the distance and the furlong didn\'t beat him. The bounce did. Its not like Giacomo and Closing Argument out pedigreed him, but they did outform him. I\'m sure the connections of Wild Desert are kicking themselves for not trying to make the field.
Personally I\'m of the opinion that Alex is the star of the crop. Held that opinion since the B.C. Juvenile (though considered a Derby bomb) and nothing in the Derby shakes that notion. Still that could be wrong and have lost a good deal on those two races. Just wish the entire Fab Four had been right for the Derby is all.
The Preakness is another matter and Alex as favorite looks vulnerable, but not on distance limitation or training regime.
RE the Davidowitz comments about AA post derby. You have to know that AA has always looked a bit ragged and that is what drew so much fire from horsemem/clockers regarding Richey\'s extensive two a days etc.
I personally thought AA ran gutsy but the extra eight dulled his often big time brush.
Chuckles,
So you think he bounced in the Derby, and the two-a-days were not a contributing factor? He put forth a tremendous effort in the Arkansas Derby (that\'s your opinion, right?) and his trainer ran him around Churchill Downs twice as much as everyone else and that had nothing to do with the way he ran. The training didn\'t wear down the horse off a big effort even more...he just bounced because...he bounced.
I wonder if Ritchey will keep it up?
HP
Going by this subject title, I\'m bummed out that Buzzards Bay isn\'t going to Pimlico as per the DRF today. He looks good off that pair...
HP
Haven\'t been following the Preakness works, its time to catch up. Alex is telling the trainer what he wants to do. Ritchey didn\'t work him twice everyday even pre derby. Did anyone notice Ritchey\'s record and the R.O.I. on his horses?
Trainers are this level with a good horse are all pretty competent, its hard to second guess them unless theres something manifest in the decision.
Kansas City Boy loved Gulfstream, the track was playing to inside speed all meet and McPeek took him from a one hole race there and ran him from outside in the Louisiana Derby. That kind of thing. McPeek is a good trainer, that was just a very odd decision and thats not even factoring the Shipping. They probably wanted a rating off pace effort to keep him on the Derby trail. That could have been attempted at Gulfstream though if that was the gambit.
Chuckles,
Nobody said he WORKED the horse twice a day! I\'m glad you are confident in your opinion, although like many others reading your posts I have no idea what it\'s based on.
HP
youre focusing on the word \"work\". If he drilled the horse twice a day that would be another issue.
hes getting the horse out for ground work twice a day. Factor that negatively at your peril.
The interesting thing is that you ask me for anecdotal evidence that two a days are beneficial and your premise implies that they are not, yet what anecdotal evidence do you present to support that theory? The horse ran the most impressive Derby prep of all and it may have taken something out of him, but the bounce is just as likely upon 3YO foundation as anything else and that is what I have attributed the bounce to. That is my opinion.
On the other hand a horse like Sweet Cat jogs with gauze on her foot and that is acceptable to those that scrutinize training. Not to imply that it was acceptable to you HP, thats not known. Certain things are more relevant than others is what the point is.
One last point. Most of my handicapping is based on very careful horse review, figure review and in depth scrutiny. If upon that basis the horse is a play to me, I could generally care less what the probabiities are, both on the board and the bounce statistics. (Perhaps bounce will be factored more carefully in the future however)It backfired in the Derby and has to be candidly admitted. But who here singled either Giacomo or Closing Argument with conviction? Granting Bandini has big in my wagers as well.
Post Edited (05-13-05 13:48)
At my peril? He was DEAD in the stretch, Chuckles. They closed in .54 (I know you\'re a clock watcher).
I\'m not asking YOU for any \"anecdotal evidence.\" I saw the race, and with my incredible powers of race observation, including the hand motions of the jockeys, the separation of the pack, and the striding motion of each hoof, I noticed he was DEAD as a doornail, and it wasn\'t just in the last eighth either. He certainly won\'t be any less PANCAKE-d in less than two weeks.
HP
I thought this post by Big was one of the better post race reviews on the board:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?f=1&i=19186&t=19186#reply_19186
It does show Alex a little closer to the pace and his finish was not as powerful. The pace could have been a factor, but the track was very fast to six marks. Bounce and path were likely factors as well and despite looking dull Alex ran straight as a string in the stretch near the rail.
Alex looks to be the Preakness favorite and so he could be worth taking a shot at. If he doesn\'t show well in the Preakness, the cumulative efforts and perhaps the distance are going to be prime suspects. It would be very hard to say training stopped him.
He bounced. Will he shake it off?
The training stopped him.
You must be speaking of the Yankees.
In Ed Fountaine\'s report of the Derby in the New York Post on May 8, he wrote that AA was rumored to be sore before the race. I consider Fountaine a responsible reporter. Anyone else hear this or read it somewhere else?
Is High Limit still a Preakness probable? (been out of the loop). If so, could I please have the phone number for the MD ASPCA?
Expect to read soon that Bellamy will be sent to stud. Messrs Brown (negative 5) and
Beyer (120)have made him the fastest 3YO in history, and as such he is too valuable to race through for what other horses would be a typical setback.
I feel it would be foolish to dismiss Giacomo in this spot. What if he turns into Charismatic and wins for fun? Could happen for sure. I mean he had a slowly progressive line heading into the Derby, he ran a new top, now he has a full field again which will most likely boost the pace factor up front, and we already know this horse is solid, no chinks in his armor and can run all day. I know all you guys like your horses \"FAST\" but I would not overlook a solid animal with an above average jockey and trainer guiding him through his journey. If Giacomo goes off at 6-1 or better, I would not hesitate to drop a dime on him to Win and Place.
I have a strong opinion that it will be the same from the Derby, also runnig 1-2 in Baltimore. If High Limit looks peppy on-track, I\'d play him in the exacta too. And after the exacta pays $65 and change - everyone will say \"Dammit! Why didn\'t I just at least play the Jocko and CA as a savor?\"
Don;t get caught being the one saying Dammit!
HP,
>I saw the race, and with my incredible powers of race observation, including the hand motions of the jockeys, the separation of the pack, and the striding motion of each hoof, I noticed he was DEAD as a doornail, and it wasn\'t just in the last eighth either.<
LOL.
So incredible that most people can see these things after a few weeks. It took me a few years. :-)
He hung like a chandelier and you didn\'t need to look at the clock to know that.
Post Edited (05-13-05 18:49)
Alex had a very tough trip....If you saw the overhead view, it would make you sick. He was foulded going into the first turn by a horse that had no reason to leave the rail. Alex bounced off about 6 horses that he was passing. Rose aimed him time after time at a tiny hole and Alex delivered the goods. More than once, he figured to go down. Was he beat-up? You bet !!! Did he bounce...I think so. Will he win the next one???? Yes, by 5.......
Between all the tough trips and the impact of pace I think it\'s very difficult to translate these performances into reasonably accurate numbers.
I am attempting to seperate the horses by looking at relative trips like High Fly vs. Flower Alley (who finished close and had similar trips), Closing Argument vs. Afleet Alex etc... When I figure out which of each pairing I like better, I\'ll make an attempt to match up the less similar finishers.
I also think it makes more sense than usual to simply toss out the figures of some horses you know had a very tough time and base your appraisal of the horse on his form coming into the Derby (assuming there isn\'t clear evidence of a change).
classhandicapper wrote:
>
> So incredible that most people can see these things after a few
> weeks. It took me a few years. :-)
>
> He hung like a chandelier and you didn\'t need to look at the
> clock to know that.
He also ran late on the slower part of the track with the biggest reason of the top 3 to regress. Additionally if someone really thinks the Other 2 scooted by, have another look or 3. Despite Regression, you have to suspect if AA followed Giacomo till the last eighth and takes him wide, he passes that one like hes standing still.
Things aren\'t always how they initially appear and drawing firm and fast conclusions about the quality of the animals in that race requires a little bit more than viewing the end of the race.
The feeling may change in a weeks time, but I have to admit that I\'m having trouble getting pumped up for this Preakness. So much so that I\'m tempted to just watch and sit this one out, possibly observing another inscrutable result.
The Derby horses who ran in the money appear more likely than not to come back with a poor to average effort. The new shooters and Derby also-rans are a wholly uninspiring lot.
We\'ll see, plenty of time still to find something to get excited about.